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Kelce rebus


Italian Bills

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The Bills game plan against KC in the regular season in 2021 (and a lot of other teams had some defensive success doing this in 2021) was to play two high safeties 

to take away Hill and the deep ball and then jam Kelce at the line and beat him up with double teams and basically let the other KC players beat you. It worked because Kelce would get beat up and worn down as the game went on and the soft high zone would limit the big plays from Hill and the rest of the WR corps were pretty pedestrian so taking chances in zone single coverage against pedestrian receivers and a weak running game was doable. 

 

This year KC doesn't have Hill which is a huge loss but they are a bit more balanced on offense in terms of their secondary weapons (although Lazard, Juju and Sky Moore aren't really that impressive but not tragic). However, I think the key is to just jam and double Kelce and beat him up. Let him get his in the first half but make him pay for it and work for it and wear him down. Then play your standard zone defense and drop 5 against the rest of KC's receiving corp.

 

The Bills are better equipped to go up against KC's very good O-line and get pressure with the front 4 and hold the point of attack against the run. But Hill not being there will hopefully make KC's offense less dynamic and easier to game plan against. Right now the early returns in the AFC week 1 are that the Bills and KC are headed for another playoff matchup with Baltimore and the Chargers being the tough outs. 

 

Still plenty ways to go as I am not ruling out Cincy and several other AFC teams that got off to a slow start week one. But right now it's hard not to see KC and Buffalo as destined to meet up again. 

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9 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Everybody knows that stopping TK is the key in order to beat KC…. so why nobody knows how stop/limit him ? 
 

How is that head coaches, def coordinators, defensive players can’t have a plan to limit his yardage at 60/70 and not let him get almost every week over 100 yards ?

 

I really don’t get it, please help me to understand.

 

 

Kelce had 6 games last year of 34 yards or less. The Chiefs won 4 of the 5 games. 

 

He also had four games over 100 yards. Not "every week." Four games. The Chiefs lost two of those four games.

 

So no, it's not the key to stopping them. It sure wouldn't hurt, but it's just not that simple.

Edited by Thurman#1
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11 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Everybody knows that stopping TK is the key in order to beat KC…. so why nobody knows how stop/limit him ? 
 

How is that head coaches, def coordinators, defensive players can’t have a plan to limit his yardage at 60/70 and not let him get almost every week over 100 yards ?

 

I really don’t get it, please help me to understand.

Mahomes......

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Worth noting Kelce was injured his entire rookie year and didn't play.

 

His next 4 seasons were all with Alex Smith at QB.  He put up 852, 857, and then a couple of 1000+ yard season all with Smith to start his career.

 

In 2014 (Kelce's first season playing) he led the team in catches and TD catches.  In that season KC had ZERO TD catches by a WR.  It's not like there were any other scary targets to take the pressue off Kecle....with noodle arm Alex Smith throwing to him.

 

Ini 2015, Kelce was second on the team in receptoins and TD catches behind end of career Jeremy Maclin.  KC's WR only totalled 11 TD catches.  Again, not exactly a bunch of talent around him for other teams to have to worry with.

 

In 2016, Kelce once again led the team in receptions and TD catches...it was his first of his continuing streek of 1000 yard seasons.  This was Hills rookie seaosn, but Hill only started 1 game. Smith still at QB.

 

In 2017, once again with Smith at QB Kelce led the team in recections and TD catches once again, and had his 2nd consecutive 1000+ yard recieving season.

 

2018 Mahomes came along.  

 

Sometimes guys are really good at football and it's hard to stop them.

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When the Bills drafted Edmunds and he was advertised as a sideline-to-sideline LB with elite physical size and abilities I had a crazy idea the team would use him occasionally to match-up with those big and athletic TE's the defense never could never handle.  At the time Gronkowski presented the biggest headache.  And now its Kelce.  But I was wrong. 

 

But my thought was get physical with Kelce by never giving him a free release from the LOS by putting Edmunds over him and cover him over the short and intermediate routes.  At a minimum this might disrupt the timing between Mahomes and his star TE and cause the QB to throw to other options.  Sub in another LB for the nickel CB with Edmunds more or less playing that nickel but covering the TE.  Will it work?  I can't say.  Maybe not, but so far what they're doing hasn't worked well either and why not experiment on a couple plays?  

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12 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Everybody knows that stopping TK is the key in order to beat KC…. so why nobody knows how stop/limit him ? 
 

How is that head coaches, def coordinators, defensive players can’t have a plan to limit his yardage at 60/70 and not let him get almost every week over 100 yards ?

 

I really don’t get it, please help me to understand.

The reality is the Cardinals were not a huge defensive test,  I think this season good defensive teams will shut him down and force others to beat them. First off you cannot allow him a free release off the line and you need two guys on him.  In years past if you committed two guys to Kelce you had to worry about Hill , yes KC still has some fast players but no one at the same level as Hill.

 

I could see the Bills having either Edmunds or Milano on him at the line with Poyer or Hyde as second guy over top. To me if Edmonds thinks he deserves a big extension then he needs to show he can cover Kelce who is now 32 years old.  I know Milano is the better cover guy but Edmunds has the length and size.  End of the day I am not as worried about Kelce with Hill no longer in KC because those two complimented each other.

 

There is also good evidence from their loss to the Bengals in ACF title game that rushing only 3 can be effective in obvious passing downs. KC did pretty much what they wanted against the Cardinals and I don't see it going as easy for Kelce or the Chiefs this season.

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18 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Tre has gotten burnt on him a few times so I would assume lesser CBs would have a lot of issues


the stats on corners vs others covering tight ends bear out my point pretty consistently. Great players will still make some plays but a guy with great coverage skills tend to fair much better than simply a larger body that is just ok in coverage.

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Opponents facing the Bills have something of the same dilemma of how many forces do you commit to containing Kelce.  Too much attention means other targets are too open.  Too little and Kelce kills you.  With Buffalo, it's not a tight end.  It's Stephon Diggs.  Commit too much attention to him from safeties and Gabe Davis can kill you, or McKenzie, or Knox, or Allen's running.  It's as much Mahomes' (and Allen's ability to make good reads and go to the right receiver or running play) as it is Kelce's elite ability.  If you don't pay enough attention to Diggs, then he'll run up ten catches and more, and well over 100 yards in receptions.  When working to its potential, Buffalo's offense is every bit as explosive and unstoppable as Mahomes, Kelce and company.

Edited by BigAl2526
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On 9/13/2022 at 12:59 AM, billsfan89 said:

 

 

This year KC doesn't have Hill which is a huge loss but they are a bit more balanced on offense in terms of their secondary weapons (although Lazard, Juju and Sky Moore aren't really that impressive but not tragic).

 


juju, hardman, Valdez scantling, and sky…. You skipped their number 2 and sent the wrong packer to them. 

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23 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

Opponents facing the Bills have something of the same dilemma of how many forces do you commit to containing Kelce.  Too much attention means other targets are too open.  Too little and Kelce kills you.  With Buffalo, it's not a tight end.  It's Stephon Diggs.  Commit too much attention to him from safeties and Gabe Davis can kill you, or McKenzie, or Knox, or Allen's running.  It's as much Mahomes' (and Allen's ability to make good reads and go to the right receiver or running play) as it is Kelce's elite ability.  If you don't pay enough attention to Diggs, then he'll run up ten catches and more, and well over 100 yards in receptions.  When working to its potential, Buffalo's offense is every bit as explosive and unstoppable as Mahomes, Kelce and company.

You mean the Diggs Rebus?

It sounds so much more philosophical if you put it that way.

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On 9/13/2022 at 6:30 PM, NoSaint said:


the stats on corners vs others covering tight ends bear out my point pretty consistently. Great players will still make some plays but a guy with great coverage skills tend to fair much better than simply a larger body that is just ok in coverage.

 

The first time I remember the Bills using a CB on a TE was when Wade put the very undersized Antoine Winfield on Tony Gonzalez........and shut him down.

 

Jimmy Graham basically went from "how do you stop this guy" to brought to a full stop by this tactic when he got sent to WR-weak Seattle.

 

A good CB can shut down a TE easier than he can a top WR.

 

This is why TE's don't get paid like receivers..........they are the icing on the cake in the passing game. 

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