Allen's frequent running

[Devilmann]

I really get where your coming from and I used to feel that way. I’ve just accepted it as apart of his game and that’s what makes him so unique and fun to watch but as we have all seen he can get hurt just as easily in the pocket as well just watch the old Joe Thiesman clip. I’m just enjoying the ride and enjoying the fact the we have one of the best qb’s in the league. 

[SoMAn]

16 hours ago, Success said:

Apologies if there is already a thread on this - I checked and didn't see anything. And was surprised, because I thought this would be a hot topic today.

 

I loved the game last night, and Allen is one of the best players I've seen.  That's not hyperbole. He can do literally everything out there.

 

But he's running too much.  It can't be stated more simply than that.  The Bills can have a long run with JA at QB, but only if he's on the field.  He's such a good passer - I was really hoping the new OC would change our usage of Allen somewhat, and cut down on designed runs and putting him in the thick of things up the middle.

 

I don't think it's sustainable. Thoughts?

He’s F-ing Josh Allen. His legs are part of his greatness. 
I’m amused by hand-wringing ninnies who worry constantly that he might get hurt. They’re like the over protective mommies who are scared their precious babies can’t ride their bicycles without a suit of armor. 
Josh was probably in the mix more than we’d prefer, but the Bills were setting the tone for 2022 and exorcising the 13 second demons in the process. 
I believe we’ll see more sliding and running to the sidelines in coming weeks. But when run opportunities present themselves and keep drives alive, I want Josh to be Josh. He’s a big boy. I’d be more concerned for the guy in the secondary. 
QBs are probably more vulnerable standing prone in the pocket taking a blow from a 300 lb DT.  
Just hope he’s wearing his elbow pads and pink bicycle helmet when he rides his bike over to his friend’s house. 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

19 minutes ago, SoMAn said:

He’s F-ing Josh Allen. His legs are part of his greatness. 
I’m amused by hand-wringing ninnies who worry constantly that he might get hurt. They’re like the over protective mommies who are scared their precious babies can’t ride their bicycles without a suit of armor. 
Josh was probably in the mix more than we’d prefer, but the Bills were setting the tone for 2022 and exorcising the 13 second demons in the process. 
I believe we’ll see more sliding and running to the sidelines in coming weeks. But when run opportunities present themselves and keep drives alive, I want Josh to be Josh. He’s a big boy. I’d be more concerned for the guy in the secondary. 
QBs are probably more vulnerable standing prone in the pocket taking a blow from a 300 lb DT.  
Just hope he’s wearing his elbow pads and pink bicycle helmet when he rides his bike over to his friend’s house. 

yeah. pink helmets and bicycle knee pads aren't my thing either but gotta protect the greatness as much as possible.  winning by 21 in the 4th?  let someone else risk their legs.

 

[muppy]

1 hour ago, SoMAn said:

He’s F-ing Josh Allen. His legs are part of his greatness. 
I’m amused by hand-wringing ninnies who worry constantly that he might get hurt. They’re like the over protective mommies who are scared their precious babies can’t ride their bicycles without a suit of armor. 
Josh was probably in the mix more than we’d prefer, but the Bills were setting the tone for 2022 and exorcising the 13 second demons in the process. 
I believe we’ll see more sliding and running to the sidelines in coming weeks. But when run opportunities present themselves and keep drives alive, I want Josh to be Josh. He’s a big boy. I’d be more concerned for the guy in the secondary. 
QBs are probably more vulnerable standing prone in the pocket taking a blow from a 300 lb DT.  
Just hope he’s wearing his elbow pads and pink bicycle helmet when he rides his bike over to his friend’s house. 

I eyerolled this because of your condescending tone towards people being concerned he be hurt while playing.. What's with the "worry constantly" dig......again @-@ I doubt anyone is obsessing over an injury .  For the record Josh is going to be Josh regardless of what you or I think. In the hierarchy at 1BD the Coach should be the one counciling his QB FOR THE BEST INTERESTS OF THE BUFFALO BILLS.  i think to seeing your franchise QB legs churning for first downs is exciting. Who doesn't like first downs right? All I am saying is to we fear he going down on a play that in the grand scheme of things  means squat (up by 21 points , non conference game. Risk vs reward ratio hermano.

 

 the rest of your post read logical. smh Pink bicycle smack pfft yeah whatever.

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by muppy

[Matt_In_NH]

3 hours ago, Malazan said:

 

Then you must hate Allen being in the pocket. Joe Theissmann was injured while in the pocket on a flea flicker. 

I have heard in wGR that you are more likely to be hurt in the pocket than running the ball.  However more hits is more risk.  Singletary was killing it.  Why did they stop?  A lot of Allen’s called runs don’t gain much yardage.   And he fights for a yard bear and there.  Even a twisted ankle he maybe can play on will limit what he can do in the pocket.  I am good with an occasional run and some scrambling but he should not lead the team in carries.   

[PromoTheRobot]

I was so sure they weren't going to expose Josh to hits while running I bet under 35.5 yards and lost. Serves me right. (But I hit everything else.)

Edited September 10, 2022 by PromoTheRobot

[Billy Claude]

6 hours ago, Malazan said:

 

 

 

QBs that ran less than 5.5% of plays missed 8.5% of their games. QBs that ran more than 12% of the time missed 9.5% of their games. QBs that ran 5.5% to 12% of the time missed ~11.5% of their games. 

 

You can see injury rates on types on plays:

 

Knockdowns: 1 injury every 57.1 plays (90 total injuries on 5,135 plays for a 1.8% injury rate)

Sacks: 1 injury every 75.1 plays (52 total injuries on 3,903 for a 1.3% injury rate)

Scrambles: 1 injury every 106.7 plays (23 total injuries on 2,455 plays for a 0.9% injury rate)

Designed runs: 1 injury for every 174.2 plays (11 total injuries on 1,916 plays for an 0.6% injury rate)

(John Verros, the injury coordinator at Sports Info Solutions)

 

I'm curious if you have any information beyond your feelings. 

 

 

 

 

The author of original study does not appear to have any background in statistics.   Any conclusions based on 10% differences between groupings of 10 has zero statistical significance since changing one data point can completely change your conclusions.   The  best you can say from her data is that the QBs that runs the least (lowest 30 percentile) are less likely to get hurt while there is no obvious correlation between run rate and games missed for those in the upper 70 percentile.

 

The comparison regarding injury rates per type of play  are apples to hamburgers.    You have to compare the average injury per drop back to average designed run play.   In 2021 there were 2.3 sacks per team per game and 34.4 passes per team per game so about 6.3% of dropbacks end up with sack.  If we assume this same ratio for her 10 years of data -- this would mean 165 injuries out 82000 dropbacks or 0.2% of dropbacks result in injuries.*  So based on this data, a designed QB run is three times as likely to lead to a QB injury than a designed pass play.

 

The reason more injuries happen in the pocket is simply because there are a lot more dropbacks than designed QB runs.   On a per play basis, a QB is still much more likely to get hurt on a run play than a pass play.

 

*I have left out injuries that occur when the QB is not sacked or knockdown (Allen hitting his hand on a helmet his rookie year) but I find it hard to believe that would change it to any more than 0.25% of dropbacks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Billy Claude

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

[Malazan]

4 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

So based on this data, a designed QB run is three times as likely to lead to a QB injury than a designed pass play.

 

Then go look at the data compiled by John Verros. It disagrees with you. There's more studies out there as well. 

Edited September 10, 2022 by Malazan

[Scott7975]

9 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

It's a breakdown whose assumptions and methods make it kind of questionable. She treats games missed as her unit of study, but by her assumptions, guys like Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III didn't miss all that many games.

 

She didn't look at what caused injuries. And she didn't look (nor could you, really, but it's the absolute main point) of how shortened the careers of guys like Griffin III and Cam Newton have been.

 

That's two guys out of a group of 12 QBs with the highest run percentages.

 

Newtons shoulder injury, which is what shortened his career, didnt come on a scramble.  It came from him trying to make a tackle after he threw an INT.

 

There are more studies out there then just the one posted.  I've read a few.

Edited September 10, 2022 by Scott7975

[billsfan1959]

15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Get down?   Not try to break a tackle there when there is virtually no chance of escaping and avoiding getting clocked in the process?

 

 

This seems to be a strange play on which to base your argument about avoiding contact. On the sack by Darnold, he just went by Bates on a straight line to Allen. Allen saw Darnold bearing down on him and had 3 choices (and about .7 seconds to make a choice): (1) Just drop to the ground (which I'm not sure he could have before getting hit), (2) stand there and take the full hit from Darnold, or (3) wrap the ball up with two hands, try to evade a full hit, put his head down, and try to move forward for a few yards. He made the 3rd choice and ended up with a 1 yard sack instead of a 6 yard sack. That left them with a 3rd and 4 instead of a 3rd and 9 at their own 10 yard line. The hit by Darnold ended up being no more violent than any other hits he has taken on sacks - and probably less violent than if Allen didn't try to evade it.

 

I'm all in favor of Allen not taking unnecessary hits and being smart with how and when he runs, but, in that particular situation, I think he did the right thing.

 

15 hours ago, Beck Water said:

I'm not quite sure we're watching the same play?  I thought Josh tried evade and step up, but there was no pocket to step into.  It was a jailbreak, bang-bang play, not one of those where Josh tries to run out of trouble.

 

Correct

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by billsfan1959

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

 

The author of original study does not appear to have any background in statistics.   Any conclusions based on 10% differences between groupings of 10 has zero statistical significance since changing one data point can completely change your conclusions.   The  best you can say from her data is that the QBs that runs the least (lowest 30 percentile) are less likely to get hurt while there is no obvious correlation between run rate and games missed for those in the upper 70 percentile.

 

The comparison regarding injury rates per type of play  are apples to hamburgers.    You have to compare the average injury per drop back to average designed run play.   In 2021 there were 2.3 sacks per team per game and 34.4 passes per team per game so about 6.3% of dropbacks end up with sack.  If we assume this same ratio for her 10 years of data -- this would mean 165 injuries out 82000 dropbacks or 0.2% of dropbacks result in injuries.*  So based on this data, a designed QB run is three times as likely to lead to a QB injury than a designed pass play.

 

The reason more injuries happen in the pocket is simply because there are a lot more dropbacks than designed QB runs.   On a per play basis, a QB is still much more likely to get hurt on a run play than a pass play.

 

*I have left out injuries that occur when the QB is not sacked or knockdown (Allen hitting his hand on a helmet his rookie year) but I find it hard to believe that would change it to any more than 0.25% of dropbacks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

add in QB hits too.  Cant just go off sacks.

[pigpen65]

Yeah it's nutty. My optimism for a new OC was based entirely around the prospect of Allen running less. Seemed like he ran more and took even bigger hits. Makes so little sense, especially up 3 TDs in the 4th quarter. Really don't get it

[Billy Claude]

42 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

Then go look at the data compiled by John Verros. It disagrees with you. There's more studies out there as well. 

 

 

Link?

 

I am just using the data you quoted on # of injuries per sack, knockdown, and designed run.   I would be glad to listen to why my analysis is wrong.   I am actually surprised that the difference was so large.  However, I am sure that comparing injuries per sack to injuries per run is not the right comparison to make.

 

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

add in QB hits too.  Cant just go off sacks.

 

Quarterback knockdowns were included.  I am not sure what that means but I assume that means QB hits.

 

 

[Success]

Checking the Pats boards, their current copium is pretty tied to this - a general sort of "he'll be just like Cam Newton - I give him 3 years tops at this level."

 

I hope we're not as bitter and petty as that crew after we win 6.

 

[billsfan1959]

24 minutes ago, pigpen65 said:

Yeah it's nutty. My optimism for a new OC was based entirely around the prospect of Allen running less. Seemed like he ran more and took even bigger hits. Makes so little sense, especially up 3 TDs in the 4th quarter. Really don't get it

 

Why are people acting like they were calling run plays left and right for Allen when they were up 3 TDs?

 

Allen literally ran one time when they were up by 3 TDs. It wasn't a designed run and it wasn't even an RPO. He rolled out to his left to pass the ball. The linebacker came up and drove Morse back into Allen. Allen saw a wide open lane, took it, and ran for 13 yards, and was tackled from behind as he started to go down to avoid defenders coming at him. He didn't even take a hard hit.

 

He handed the ball off the next two plays and then Moss fumbled.

 

That is it. Not one called run play after going up by 3 TDs.

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by billsfan1959

[Just in Atlanta]

On 9/9/2022 at 12:07 PM, Nextmanup said:

I disagree with this "he's going to get hurt" thing from fans.  Why?  He's 6'6 and 240 lbs... and can take linebackers for a ride.

 

Why aren't you worried about Matt Milano getting hurt with all the running and thumping he does?  Josh is a LOT bigger!
 

Sure, there's a risk of injury every time Josh runs around, but I don't think it's close to what fans think it is.

 

I do support him NOT RUNNING at all against bad teams or when the score is run up. 

 

We need all we have against the big boys, though, and Josh running is the most dangerous thing we do.

 

I've been saying that for 3 years now and it's still true.

 

 

If Matt Milano gets hurt for a long stretch, which he has several times, it has a very small impact, as good as he is. If Josh Allen gets hurt for a long stretch, we’re probably not going to the playoffs. Allen is the offense.

 

I love the runs, personally. It adds an extra dimension to our game. I think we can all agree running him in the fourth quarter when we’re up, even if it was RPO, was reckless and unnecessary. 

[transplantbillsfan]

On 9/9/2022 at 5:58 AM, Success said:

Apologies if there is already a thread on this - I checked and didn't see anything. And was surprised, because I thought this would be a hot topic today.

 

I loved the game last night, and Allen is one of the best players I've seen.  That's not hyperbole. He can do literally everything out there.

 

But he's running too much.  It can't be stated more simply than that.  The Bills can have a long run with JA at QB, but only if he's on the field.  He's such a good passer - I was really hoping the new OC would change our usage of Allen somewhat, and cut down on designed runs and putting him in the thick of things up the middle.

 

I don't think it's sustainable. Thoughts?

 

I don't know. The time I was most scared he would be injured was when he stayed in the pocket and got sacked by Aaron Donald and was inches away from having his head bounced off the turf. That was a stroke of luck he didn't get a concussion and it wasn't a running play.

 

I'm really not the biggest fan of designed runs for Josh Allen... never have been. I want him to scramble at will, though.

 

That said, I think this has been covered often, but QBs are probably more susceptible to serious injury in the pocket. I'm relatively comfortable with Josh Allen seeking contact beyond the LOS. I think the opposing secondary has more reason to fear injury.

[Malazan]

1 hour ago, Billy Claude said:

Link?

 

I am just using the data you quoted on # of injuries per sack, knockdown, and designed run.   I would be glad to listen to why my analysis is wrong.   I am actually surprised that the difference was so large.  However, I am sure that comparing injuries per sack to injuries per run is not the right comparison to make.

 

I've already provided multiple links in this thread. You've already made mistakes on quoting said data as it is 'per play' not totals. I'm not sure wasting more of my time on providing easily findable data points is worthwhile. 

 

Why don't you provide some sources of data to back up your claims?

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I don't know. The time I was most scared he would be injured was when he stayed in the pocket and got sacked by Aaron Donald and was inches away from having his head bounced off the turf. That was a stroke of luck he didn't get a concussion and it wasn't a running play.

 

I'm really not the biggest fan of designed runs for Josh Allen... never have been. I want him to scramble at will, though.

 

That said, I think this has been covered often, but QBs are probably more susceptible to serious injury in the pocket. I'm relatively comfortable with Josh Allen seeking contact beyond the LOS. I think the opposing secondary has more reason to fear injury.

 

There were at least 2 in the second half on Thursday where Josh called his own number after changing a play. It is those sorts of runs I am just not sure you are ever going to get out of him. Cos he is a competitor and if he thinks changing the play and calling his own number puts the team in the best position that is what he will do.