Players that are ST only…how much value do they have?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They traded him because he didn't have a roster spot..... because of special teams players.

 

You usually keep 8-9 Oline - and the end of roster guys usually play a few spots.  

 

Dawkins, Spain, Morse, Feliciano, Ford

 

Nsekhe Swing tackle, Long G/C, Bates, Boettger

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

You usually keep 8-9 Oline - and the end of roster guys usually play a few spots.  

 

Dawkins, Spain, Morse, Feliciano, Ford

 

Nsekhe Swing tackle, Long G/C, Bates, Boettger

 

They could have kept 10......... except for the ST players.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They could have kept 10......... except for the ST players.

 

Cool - he very likely never would have played.  Ford being a 2nd rounder, and then the trade to acquire Bates who they liked were more likely the driving factors to his trade.  

 

We did use the 5th rounder in the Diggs trade, and the 6th on Tyler bass FWIW.  

Edited August 15, 2022 by Bleeding Bills Blue

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Cool - he very likely never would have played.  

 

We did use the 5th rounder in the Diggs trade, and the 6th on Tyler bass FWIW.  

Wait, you don't think the OG who showed up to Cleveland for peanuts and made an All-Pro team after not starting until Week 9 would have NEVER EVER seen the field in Buffalo? 

[hemma]

Haack had 52 punts last year, 7 of which were touchbacks.

Any bets on how many TBs this year?  I’m thinking 20 with another 20 fair catches & 10 OB.

There may only be 10 punts returned all year.

 

We already know that Bass, given the go ahead, can pound it out of the endzone.

 

Adapt to your players strengths -> Less stress on coverage units, more emphasis on return units.

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Wait, you don't think the OG who showed up to Cleveland for peanuts and made an All-Pro team after not starting until Week 9 would have NEVER EVER seen the field in Buffalo? 

 

Maybe, maybe not... we'll never know.  You won't always be on the winning side of back of the roster moves.  Sometimes you give up on a player too early (Teller), or hold on to someone too long (Ford).  

 

That much turnover between coaches, personnel, philosophy - it was likely basically a new start for all the players and over the course of camp he was passed over for whatever reason.  Maybe during the season he would have figured it out, but through camp they felt comfortable letting him go based on his performance.  

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They could have kept 10......... except for the ST players.

 

They didn't cut a guard to keep a skill position special teamer. No way. That is a crazy argument.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They didn't cut a guard to keep a skill position special teamer. No way. That is a crazy argument.

You can't make these decisions in a vacuum. It's zero sum. The bottom 7 or 8 roster spots are for developing players and STers. More STers is less developing players.

 

They traded him because otherwise they would have cut him.

Edited August 15, 2022 by FireChans

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 minutes ago, hemma said:

Haack had 52 punts last year, 7 of which were touchbacks.

Any bets on how many TBs this year?  I’m thinking 20 with another 20 fair catches & 10 OB.

There may only be 10 punts returned all year.

 

We already know that Bass, given the go ahead, can pound it out of the endzone.

 

Adapt to your players strengths -> Less stress on coverage units, more emphasis on return units.

 

 

The league leader in TBs is 10.  TBs are a bad stat for punters.  7 in 52 is freaking terrible btw.  

[hemma]

6 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

The league leader in TBs is 10.  TBs are a bad stat for punters.  7 in 52 is freaking terrible btw.  

Yeah, i know about the 10.  We get to midfield, I think Araiza will punish the ball.  I’m sticking with 1 a game +++ a bit.

Maybe he becomes great at OB inside the 20, but in either event, we have a great D to keep them down there.

 

Edited August 15, 2022 by hemma

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 minute ago, hemma said:

Yeah, i know about the 10.  We get to midfield, I think Araiza will punish the ball.  I’m sticking with 1 a game +++ a bit.

 

 

Wouldn't we want to just punt it high to like the 5-10 range and either force FCs or down it?  

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You can't make these decisions in a vacuum. It's zero sum. The bottom 7 or 8 roster spots are for developing players and STers. More STers is less developing players.

 

They traded him because otherwise they would have cut him.

 

But the Bills have always under this regime taken their special teamers by position group. They look at gunners are being part of the decision making at DB, RB and WR. They look at wedge players when they are taking their decisions at LB, TE, FB and Safety. That has always been their approach. So no, it isn't a zero sum game, but they traded Wyatt Teller to keep Spencer Long. It had nothing to do with Taiwan Jones. 

[hemma]

3 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Wouldn't we want to just punt it high to like the 5-10 range and either force FCs or down it?  

Haack only had 11 FC last year.  I’m guessing 20 this year.

 

IMO, Haack was the worst player on the team last year.  Granted, it was a limited role.  Not as if he was the QB, but nevertheless, he rarely outperformed his modest expectations.

 

With Araiza, we now have 2 ST guys that can boom it and almost eliminate the possibility of long returns.  Use their strengths, which opens up - to a certain extent - the  ST portion of the roster

[ColoradoBills]

I am 100% positive that McDermott and Beane will not take any extreme view on STs.

They will weigh the player(s) depth worth, special teams needs and long-term player development.

 

A prime player to debate (at least for me) is Kumerow.  It's tough to do because ST "stats" other than % of snaps are hard to accumulate.

ST positions if you will also have different value, gunners and gunner defenders (if that is a term) are more important than a typical guy

on Punt Returns for example.  

 

Kumerow can fill the "gunner" role, but the Bills use Jones and Neal as the primary gunners.  I get that from Smalley's press conference.

So Kumerow is a depth gunner.  He gets a lot of other ST snaps, but to fully answer this question you have to take the following into consideration.

 

1.  How much better (if any) is Kumerow's entire ST worth compared to another player that will fill it?

2. What is Kumerow's worth at his primary position comparted to the player he would displace?

3.  Can another player who may not be as effective in that ST role develop into a ST player as good or better than Kumerow?

     I've stressed this multiple times.  Kumerow never had a large ST role until last year.  If Kumerow developed into a good ST'er

     can't other players do the same?

4.  What is Kumerow's "long term" future with the team?  Example:  Do they think his play could someday replace a player like Jones.

 

We can speculate that there is a good chance that if Kumerow is kept that a guy like Hodgins may not make the team.

We're all likely to see Hodgins' play a lot more in the next couple of weeks and so will the coaches.  What happens if he plays really well?

 

What happens to Kumerow/Hodgins and others in this situation will be determined by the Beane, McDermott, Smalley and the position coaches.

I'm confident they will ask all these questions and probably have a lot more than those to consider.

 

I got no hate towards Kumerow but my hope is that Hodgins has a higher future worth to the team!  I have the feeling so do the Bills.

 

  

 

 

 

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But the Bills have always under this regime taken their special teamers by position group. They look at gunners are being part of the decision making at DB, RB and WR. They look at wedge players when they are taking their decisions at LB, TE, FB and Safety. That has always been their approach. So no, it isn't a zero sum game, but they traded Wyatt Teller to keep Spencer Long. It had nothing to do with Taiwan Jones. 

Thanks, Gunner.

 

Unfortunately, they didn't end up making the right decision on Wyatt Teller... but it had nothing to do with Special Teams lol

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

57 minutes ago, hemma said:

Haack only had 11 FC last year.  I’m guessing 20 this year.

 

IMO, Haack was the worst player on the team last year.  Granted, it was a limited role.  Not as if he was the QB, but nevertheless, he rarely outperformed his modest expectations.

 

With Araiza, we now have 2 ST guys that can boom it and almost eliminate the possibility of long returns.  Use their strengths, which opens up - to a certain extent - the  ST portion of the roster

 

opens it up for what though?  Who are the fringe players that we need to keep that can't contribute on special teams?

11 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

I am 100% positive that McDermott and Beane will not take any extreme view on STs.

They will weigh the player(s) depth worth, special teams needs and long-term player development.

 

A prime player to debate (at least for me) is Kumerow.  It's tough to do because ST "stats" other than % of snaps are hard to accumulate.

ST positions if you will also have different value, gunners and gunner defenders (if that is a term) are more important than a typical guy

on Punt Returns for example.  

 

Kumerow can fill the "gunner" role, but the Bills use Jones and Neal as the primary gunners.  I get that from Smalley's press conference.

So Kumerow is a depth gunner.  He gets a lot of other ST snaps, but to fully answer this question you have to take the following into consideration.

 

1.  How much better (if any) is Kumerow's entire ST worth compared to another player that will fill it?

2. What is Kumerow's worth at his primary position comparted to the player he would displace?

3.  Can another player who may not be as effective in that ST role develop into a ST player as good or better than Kumerow?

     I've stressed this multiple times.  Kumerow never had a large ST role until last year.  If Kumerow developed into a good ST'er

     can't other players do the same?

4.  What is Kumerow's "long term" future with the team?  Example:  Do they think his play could someday replace a player like Jones.

 

We can speculate that there is a good chance that if Kumerow is kept that a guy like Hodgins may not make the team.

We're all likely to see Hodgins' play a lot more in the next couple of weeks and so will the coaches.  What happens if he plays really well?

 

What happens to Kumerow/Hodgins and others in this situation will be determined by the Beane, McDermott, Smalley and the position coaches.

I'm confident they will ask all these questions and probably have a lot more than those to consider.

 

I got no hate towards Kumerow but my hope is that Hodgins has a higher future worth to the team!  I have the feeling so do the Bills.

 

  

 

 

 

 

I see it like this - 

 

2 QBs

4 RBs - Jones included

7 WRs - Hodgins makes 53

3 TEs - Sweeney cut

9-10 OL

9-10 DL

5 LB

6 cb

4 s

3 specialist

 

So you keep both kumerow and hodgins - hodgins or Shakir (or both) aren't active on game days.  

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

opens it up for what though?  Who are the fringe players that we need to keep that can't contribute on special teams?

 

I see it like this - 

 

2 QBs

4 RBs - Jones included

7 WRs - Hodgins makes 53

3 TEs - Sweeney cut

9-10 OL

9-10 DL

5 LB

6 cb

4 s

3 specialist

 

So you keep both kumerow and hodgins - hodgins or Shakir (or both) aren't active on game days.  

 

If Gilliam is a TE in your totals, I agree with almost all of it.

 

The only difference I see is exactly what I'm talking about.

Kumerow is cut (and goes to PS) and another LB is kept.  Bills kept 6 LBs last year.

I say that because Smalley said in his presser that ALL of the LBs are excelling in ST roles.

 

My opinion notwithstanding, you may be totally correct.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Wait, you don't think the OG who showed up to Cleveland for peanuts and made an All-Pro team after not starting until Week 9 would have NEVER EVER seen the field in Buffalo? 

 

For every Wyatt Teller there are hundreds of guys you never hear of again.  No one is ever going to bat a thousand on every decision. 

 

In terms of this overall topic, you don't weaken a third unit on the less than 1% chance this guy at the very back end of the roster might turn into some all pro down the road.  

 

That being said, doesn't mean you should always pass over a promising young player for the sake of special teams, every decision with every player is different.  For example, going back to Teller, Beane has said he was struggling here and wasn't coming along the way they wanted to see.  He does express wishing to give him more time, but there is no telling if he still develops the same here, I mean our OL coach wasn't very good.  Sometimes guys go to new systems and they fit how they play better and they excel.  Its almost an impossible thing to predict.  

 

I think when you are talking about the deeper bench guys, ST needs to be a priority.  Not every position is weighted the same either at ST, but guys at positions like WR, RB, DB, and LB especially you need to see these guys be able to contribute on ST.  

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Thanks, Gunner.

 

Unfortunately, they didn't end up making the right decision on Wyatt Teller... but it had nothing to do with Special Teams lol

 

Agree. It was more about Beane's approach to OL building which has always been to value cheap vet depth. He has brought in cheap, seasoned, grizzled vets through a revolving door every year - see Quess, Mancz and Van Roten this year. He made a rookie GM mistake in 2019, in that the line had been terrible in 2018 - he said himself he did an awful job with that unit and knowing that another failure in 2019 where a bad line undermined the development of Josh would bring some heat he went the safe route and bailed on the development of Teller. In part that was aided by the OL coaching change too. But it had little to do with keeping a 4th running back or a 6th receiver. 

[hemma]

1 minute ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

opens it up for what though?  Who are the fringe players that we need to keep that can't contribute on special teams?

I guess it depends upon your pov.

many here consider Hodgins, Spector, Morris, Blackshear to be fringe players.

i know it won’t happen, but I’d like to see all 4 of them make the team.  50/50 on any of them being picked up, but i believe for the long view we improve the team over kumerow, jones, matekevich and howard.  

 

Whether they can contribute on STs remains to be seen, though I think we have a solid start with Blackshear.