Alphas Version 1 Positional Battle Breakdown: Slot WR - Surprise cut looming?

[Bruffalo]

4 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

At this stage in the offseason. I think the Bills once again go into the season with 7 WRs

 

Here is my current 7 that make the team after this first week and OTAs and such. 
 

1. Diggs 

2. Davis 

3. McKenzie

4. Shakir 

5. Kumerow

6. Austin - so much unsolicited raving about him from Coaches
7.  Hodgins

 

Crowder odd man looking out. Best ability is availability and he just hasn’t been practicing.  And with a higher cap hit on a team that the projected final 53 will be over the cap that will be taken into account as well. 
 

Hodgins makes the team over Stevenson right now because of the different skill set and being an outside WR

 

 

 

 

I don't know how anyone who has watched the Bills can say Hodgins is going to make the roster.  That is crazy talk to me.  "Best ability is availability" well Hodgins has been injured for basically two entire seasons and no real game experience.  

 

I would bet my house that Hodgins is signed back to the practice squad at best. 

[Rockinon]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No offense taken...all good discussion going on in this thread...and I am not sold McKenzie is a surprise cut/trade by any means.  I wasn't setting out to even come to that possibility.  It more came about as I looked at all the data, potential roster makeup at other positions, etc...I couldn't get past the fact that I kept coming back to finding it hard to keep 3 primarily slot players without one of them returning kicks.  

 

Truth is, I hope we keep Crowder, Shakir, and McKenzie.  And its a legit possibility, maybe even the most plausible outcome.  But I will say, if we were to keep all 3 I don't think McKenzie has much more production than his career highs of 30 rec and 283 yards.  There just wont be a enough snaps and balls to go around.  Davis and Diggs are going to eat a lot of targets, the TE's seem more poised to be involved, Cook is going to increase the targets to the RB's as a whole, and I do think we will run the ball a little more than under Daboll.  

I think you are on the right track. I am just thinking about the games where the Bills struggled to move the ball. Remembering back, it was when defenses kept 2 deep safeties out there to take away those 20-30yd passes that Allen loves. He makes them look like 10-15yd passes. At the same time the offense couldn't get the run game going. The offense is going through a bit of a transition where those short crossing routes and dump offs to backs is more important. As well as the shorter passes to the TEs. Running the ball will be emphasized more. Again, the short yards have become more important. That's why Allen is talking about yards after catch. It's more about the matchups.

 

The bread and butter is still going to be Diggs, Davis, Knox, Singletary. Now though, they are working on ways to beat that 2 deep safety look and to get the running game going. That means more crossers, more dump offs to backs, more running. That means less balls for Digg and Davis. Certainly, that seems odd because they are stars on this offense, but the ball does need to be spread around more to those slot guys, the TEs the RBs. They have to be able to beat any kind of defense. Now, I do believe there will be a different game plan week to week depending on what they be facing. I think what this team needs is more diversity. The ability to move the ball under any circumstances is what they are shooting for. Diggs and Davis will still get their targets, but in game specific situations, some lesser known players will need to thrive. Davis may actually get more touches merely because he is now the number 2, but that short pass game has to improve. The run game too.

 

Honestly, I think we are looking at an offense that is poised to break some records. Once defenses realize that their 2 deep safety look is no longer going to work, the wheels are going to fall off for some them. They will be trying all kinds of things to stop this offense. Problem is, they won't know where to concentrate their efforts anymore. A diverse offense is hard to stop, especially with a QB like Josh slinging the ball around.

[The Jokeman]

I'm sure it was mentioned by Beane that Shakir or McDermott that Shakir was going to get work on the outside and the slot and be our jack of all trades back up assuming he makes the final 53. To me that puts him at the 4th/5th WR spot depending where you list McKenzie/Crowder. 

21 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I think you are on the right track. I am just thinking about the games where the Bills struggled to move the ball. Remembering back, it was when defenses kept 2 deep safeties out there to take away those 20-30yd passes that Allen loves. He makes them look like 10-15yd passes. At the same time the offense couldn't get the run game going. The offense is going through a bit of a transition where those short crossing routes and dump offs to backs is more important. As well as the shorter passes to the TEs. Running the ball will be emphasized more. Again, the short yards have become more important. That's why Allen is talking about yards after catch. It's more about the matchups.

 

The bread and butter is still going to be Diggs, Davis, Knox, Singletary. Now though, they are working on ways to beat that 2 deep safety look and to get the running game going. That means more crossers, more dump offs to backs, more running. That means less balls for Digg and Davis. Certainly, that seems odd because they are stars on this offense, but the ball does need to be spread around more to those slot guys, the TEs the RBs. They have to be able to beat any kind of defense. Now, I do believe there will be a different game plan week to week depending on what they be facing. I think what this team needs is more diversity. The ability to move the ball under any circumstances is what they are shooting for. Diggs and Davis will still get their targets, but in game specific situations, some lesser known players will need to thrive. Davis may actually get more touches merely because he is now the number 2, but that short pass game has to improve. The run game too.

 

Honestly, I think we are looking at an offense that is poised to break some records. Once defenses realize that their 2 deep safety look is no longer going to work, the wheels are going to fall off for some them. They will be trying all kinds of things to stop this offense. Problem is, they won't know where to concentrate their efforts anymore. A diverse offense is hard to stop, especially with a QB like Josh slinging the ball around.

I agree and think Dorsey is going to go with more two TE formations and we could see Josh making more and more underneath routes to RBs (see Cook) and a trailing TE (Knox or Howard). 

[MAJBobby]

31 minutes ago, Bruffalo said:

I don't know how anyone who has watched the Bills can say Hodgins is going to make the roster.  That is crazy talk to me.  "Best ability is availability" well Hodgins has been injured for basically two entire seasons and no real game experience.  

 

I would bet my house that Hodgins is signed back to the practice squad at best. 

And he hasn’t missed any time this year. Each year is a different team. 
 

if the roster has to be set this week. That is where I think I am. Crowder needs to start practicing. And until that happens a team that will need to save Pennies to get to the cap with the 53 ends up cutting him. That is the nature of this business. 
 

all and all they may also only keep 6 with 3 TEs. So depending there is really only 2 or 3 spots up for grabs 

Edited July 29, 2022 by MAJBobby

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Just on numbers, I did a very rough back of an envelope calculation this morning on the tube (London metro). I had 2 QBs, 1 FB, 4 RBs, 2 TEs, 6 WR, 9 OL, 9 DL, 5 LB, 6 CB, 4 S, 3 ST with the guys I am pretty confident on. That gets you to 51. Then I think there is a spot for a returner (I didn't have a designated returner among my 51) and a final spot that I think likely goes to another LB (Smith would be in that spot but is suspended from the start of the year). People will look at 2 TEs and think that is light but unless someone really steps forward they don't have a 3rd guy worth a spot and they can use Gilliam and Doyle as blocking options. Plus if one goes down they have 3 free elevations per player this year so keep Wydermyer and Morris on the PS and then use them in the interim. 

 

You know since I put this thread up, I have spent some time working more on this very thing, the final roster counts at each position.  And initially, I didn't see a path to keeping more than 6 WR's.  My thoughts when I wrote this thread were that 6 was the max number of receivers were likely to keep this year, and one of them was going to need to be the returner too.  That is where I struggled to justify keeping 3 receivers to primarily play the slot if none of them were the kick returner too.  Again, the backup slot position as it is has seen almost no action the past 2 years despite a prolific offense.  So why keep 3 if one isnt the returner was the question I just kept coming back to.  

 

But, as I fiddled with the numbers last night, I started settling closer to what you have here, in fact almost exactly the same count you have here.  If the roster cut downs were to play out like this, then I can definitely see us having the space to keep a 7th receive that is a kick returner which if we do, then I can easily see us keeping all 3 of McKenzie, Crowder, and Shakir.

 

Like I said in another post, I didn't set out to dive into this position with my mind made up someone had to go.  It actually took me several days to even finish writing this thread because I kept changing my mind as I dived into more data.  

 

That being said, I still don't see a significant jump in production from McKenzie by the seasons end without injuries helping him get on the field more.  There will be just too many mouths to feed this year, I expect the slot targets to see another small decrease for the 2nd year in a row due to other changes to the offense, and he will at best split snaps with Crowder and Shakir too.  And I still don't believe our staff views him as a heavy workload player more than a guy who has a role in specific situations.  So still not seeing a significant spike unless injuries open up additional opportunities for touches.  

[Alphadawg7]

To everyone in this thread...I am quite enjoying the discussion here and reading everyone thoughts on the matter.  So thanks for your participation and good posts! 

 

I knew as soon as I hit post it was going to have a little controversial take with me questioning if McKenzie could be a surprise cut/trade because he is such a fan favorite, and that includes me, I do really like him.  But the responses have been great, lots of fluid discussion which was really the point of this thread at this stage.  

 

I just find this position battle intriguing and enjoying all the various opinions.  Its a battle to replace what was a gritty, tough, player who was a staple of our team and Josh's development.  So watching how this battle evolves is something I find very intriguing.  

 

I am a big fan of the Shakir pick too, so seeing him come out and impress early was exciting for me to see which is only heating up my interest more in this battle.  I thought he should have been a 2nd rounder personally, and to be honest, didn't even realize he had even slipped that far.  None of the impressing early matters in shorts, but you still like to see it and gets you hyped to see what he can do with pads on and when he gets hopefully some snaps with the ones at some point.

 

Personally, I think Shakir is going to have a Davis like impact this season and will start the 2023 season next year as a starter at the slot.  He honestly reminds me a lot of Cooper Kupp in terms of their style of play.  And its not a coincidence, he himself has said he studies Kupp and models his game after him.  I think once he earns the trust of the coaches and Josh, he will start seeing more snaps as the season grows.  

[Warcodered]

 

[John from Riverside]

I am not down on Crowder.....yet

 

It would be nice to get a report on him other then "tightness" when he is out for a whole week

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

Definitely glad to hear this, like I said I like him and will be rooting for him!   

[quinnearlysghost88]

Great job pulling this together. This type of content is greatly appreciated on here!

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Great job pulling this together. This type of content is greatly appreciated on here!

 

Thanks, it actually took me like 3 days to actually complete and post it as I kept diving deeper and it kept changing my mind and how I thought about the battle overall.  It was ready like a day early, but I had a hard time landing on McKenzie being a potential surprise cut/trade because I do like him.  

 

Admittedly, had I waited another day I probably would have changed my mind again to be honest lol.  But certainly enjoying the convo

[Buffalo_Stampede]

35 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I am not down on Crowder.....yet

 

It would be nice to get a report on him other then "tightness" when he is out for a whole week

If he gets beaten out it’ll be nice to still have him at his low cap # then cutting him.

[Scott7975]

I think McKenzie is going to surprise people this year.

[Rockinon]

McKenzie is all ready doing well in camp and that's a good thing. The slot receiver, I believe, has become a more valued position. Partly because of the production seen by Beasley over the last couple of years. Someone has to make up that production and honestly, I do not think the coaches were expecting a single player to just come in and do that. It's looking like they are pleasantly surprised by how good the new additions are doing so far. But, the position is also valued more because it just so happens that a couple of those guys can play special teams as well. This is going to be something to watch especially when preseason games begin.  Who is holding on to the ball and not fumbling. Who is productive return kicks. Who is performing when the offense takes the field. Maybe they do keep 7. The offense struggled when Beasley was hurt.

 

Looking back, I think McKenzie spent a good portion of the season on the hot seat for fumbling the ball. It was a pleasant surprise to the coaches when he tore it up at the end of the season last year. Now I think, the position has clearly become more important to them. They went out and got a couple more slot guys in the off season. It's interesting. This offense since Allen came to town has not been your traditional passing team. Allen delivers a serious fastball. The receivers are mostly smaller quick twitch guys. The offense is more complex than most. Every player is expected to know where everyone else on the field is supposed to be and what their role is. And while we are talking about the players, it should be noted that this is an extremely well coached team.