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Taron Johnson on the outside.


billvernsays

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This would be like moving Diggs to corner. Could he do it? Yeah, probably. But it’s not what he’s best at. When you have Tre and Elam and Dane Jackson who played pretty well on the outside last year, there’s not much reason to move your best slot corner to the outside. 
 

there’s also a huge drop off from Johnson to Neal in the slot 

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Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Elam and Johnson have the same arm length. Elam has a longer wingspan though.

 

Fair point. Johnson's arms are a little longer than I recalled when I was looking at things in the spring. Still, the Bills are not playing him outside. 

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Ok, everyone is bashing OP but they may not be wildly off. In some situations, like 2 TE set, we very well may see Bernard as the ‘Nickel LB’ in that situation since he can defend being blocked by a TE better than Johnson. 
 

So, yes, it is plausible that Bernard could take a more coverage role and Johnson could spell/split with Elam on the outside early in the season. 

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9 hours ago, billvernsays said:

I know Taron Johnson is one of the best Nickel corners in the NFL but with the surprise of drafting Terrell Bernard in the 3rd round, is it possible that McBeane are thinking they could move Taron Johnson outside and get a 3rd LB on the field? 
 

im thinking the answer is yes and that’s why the pick they made in round 3 makes sense.
 

If I’m right we’ll see if that was the thought process early as the 1st few games with no T White will provide much opportunity to roll out this personal grouping. 
 

I've been saying something related to this for some time now.  I think people who scream "NO WAY!" aren't thinking about what Beane and McDermott and what the reality of the NFL is.  

 

I'm not sure what Johnson's future is, although I've speculated in the past not that it's at corner but at safety.   I think there's a good chance Poyer will be gone soon and the Bills will need a safety.  Johnson could be a candidate.  

 

When I say the reality of the NFL, what I mean is that the league is always changing, and what worked last season and two seasons ago may not work in 2022 and almost certainly no longer will work in 2023 and 2024.   So, everyone saying the Bills are a nickel team are describing the past and not necessarily the future.  It changes from year to year.  

 

The other tea leaf that people seem to ignore is that Beane doesn't draft players in the third round to be part-time players, spot substitutes, special teamers, or backups.   If Beane takes you in the third round, he and McDermott are expecting you to start, certainly by your second season and ideally in your first.   In their minds, Bernard is going to be on the field on a regular basis, again ideally, by the end of this season.  Yes, maybe he is a replacement for Milano, and maybe Beane is intending to trade Milano to make room for Bernard, but I doubt that.  

 

What I've speculated about is that we all know that McDermott loved his 4-3 in Carolina.  We also know that he played it with linebackers who looked more like the traditional 20th century NFL linebackers, albeit better pass defenders.  We also know that McDermott loves guys who can play multiple positions, or who at least play with skills that make him look like multiple-position player.   So, for example, Edmunds is linebacker who runs like a safety.  

 

Put all of that together, and I conclude that they drafted Bernard to be on the field.  He's too small to be an edge, and he's probably too slow to be a DB.  That tells me they drafted him to play linebacker in a regular rotation and as I said, I doubt they drafted him to replace Milano.  That makes me think that McDermott is looking at playing more straight 4-3 and less 4-2-5.  I think he's thinking that if he has two outside linebackers in the Milano-mold - quick fast and smart, he will have a more versatile defense than playing with just two linebackers.   Yes, Bernard can't cover the slot man as well as a good nickel can, but with three really fast linebackers the defense probably needs to commit a safety to the box less often, and that safety is free to cover the nickel.  And Bernard can blitz better than a good slot corner.   

 

And there is one more aspect of this.   The reports were that Bernard is one of those coach-on-the-field types.   Not to overstate it, but he's one of those genius types, who studies and understands the game at the level the coaches do, rather than the players.   He said something right after he was drafted about first learning his position, then learning all the other defensive positions, because he can't play football well without knowing what everyone is doing.  McDermott apparently has a close relationship with the Baylor coach and had been McDermott's ear about Bernard. That, too, tells me that McDermott has plans for Bernard that go beyond what most of us are assuming about the guy.  

 

So, my guess is that your take on this comes from the right place - there's a role for Bernard that will tend to deemphasize the importance of Johnson as the nickel back.  I agree with others that Johnson probably isn't a corner, but I think the Bills think that Johnson is the kind of guy they want on the field.   My guess is that he's a safety, and that gives Beane more flexibility to deal with Poyer.  But the Bills can't make that move until they get Bernard at least into camp and ideally through some games to be sure that he can allow Frazier and McDermott to play an ultra-small, ultra-quick three linebacker set instead of a 4-2.  In the meantime, Beane still can draw the line on Poyer if McDermott is telling him that whatever happens with Bernard, McDermott can live with Johnson or Hamlin at safety.  

 

I've said before that I'm expecting that Poyer is not getting a big deal from the Bills, and he may not be getting a deal at all.  

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10 hours ago, billvernsays said:

I know Taron Johnson is one of the best Nickel corners in the NFL but with the surprise of drafting Terrell Bernard in the 3rd round, is it possible that McBeane are thinking they could move Taron Johnson outside and get a 3rd LB on the field? 
 

im thinking the answer is yes and that’s why the pick they made in round 3 makes sense.
 

If I’m right we’ll see if that was the thought process early as the 1st few games with no T White will provide much opportunity to roll out this personal grouping. 
 

 

No.

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45 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I've been saying something related to this for some time now.  I think people who scream "NO WAY!" aren't thinking about what Beane and McDermott and what the reality of the NFL is.  

 

I'm not sure what Johnson's future is, although I've speculated in the past not that it's at corner but at safety.   I think there's a good chance Poyer will be gone soon and the Bills will need a safety.  Johnson could be a candidate.  

 

When I say the reality of the NFL, what I mean is that the league is always changing, and what worked last season and two seasons ago may not work in 2022 and almost certainly no longer will work in 2023 and 2024.   So, everyone saying the Bills are a nickel team are describing the past and not necessarily the future.  It changes from year to year.  

 

The other tea leaf that people seem to ignore is that Beane doesn't draft players in the third round to be part-time players, spot substitutes, special teamers, or backups.   If Beane takes you in the third round, he and McDermott are expecting you to start, certainly by your second season and ideally in your first.   In their minds, Bernard is going to be on the field on a regular basis, again ideally, by the end of this season.  Yes, maybe he is a replacement for Milano, and maybe Beane is intending to trade Milano to make room for Bernard, but I doubt that.  

 

What I've speculated about is that we all know that McDermott loved his 4-3 in Carolina.  We also know that he played it with linebackers who looked more like the traditional 20th century NFL linebackers, albeit better pass defenders.  We also know that McDermott loves guys who can play multiple positions, or who at least play with skills that make him look like multiple-position player.   So, for example, Edmunds is linebacker who runs like a safety.  

 

Put all of that together, and I conclude that they drafted Bernard to be on the field.  He's too small to be an edge, and he's probably too slow to be a DB.  That tells me they drafted him to play linebacker in a regular rotation and as I said, I doubt they drafted him to replace Milano.  That makes me think that McDermott is looking at playing more straight 4-3 and less 4-2-5.  I think he's thinking that if he has two outside linebackers in the Milano-mold - quick fast and smart, he will have a more versatile defense than playing with just two linebackers.   Yes, Bernard can't cover the slot man as well as a good nickel can, but with three really fast linebackers the defense probably needs to commit a safety to the box less often, and that safety is free to cover the nickel.  And Bernard can blitz better than a good slot corner.   

 

And there is one more aspect of this.   The reports were that Bernard is one of those coach-on-the-field types.   Not to overstate it, but he's one of those genius types, who studies and understands the game at the level the coaches do, rather than the players.   He said something right after he was drafted about first learning his position, then learning all the other defensive positions, because he can't play football well without knowing what everyone is doing.  McDermott apparently has a close relationship with the Baylor coach and had been McDermott's ear about Bernard. That, too, tells me that McDermott has plans for Bernard that go beyond what most of us are assuming about the guy.  

 

So, my guess is that your take on this comes from the right place - there's a role for Bernard that will tend to deemphasize the importance of Johnson as the nickel back.  I agree with others that Johnson probably isn't a corner, but I think the Bills think that Johnson is the kind of guy they want on the field.   My guess is that he's a safety, and that gives Beane more flexibility to deal with Poyer.  But the Bills can't make that move until they get Bernard at least into camp and ideally through some games to be sure that he can allow Frazier and McDermott to play an ultra-small, ultra-quick three linebacker set instead of a 4-2.  In the meantime, Beane still can draw the line on Poyer if McDermott is telling him that whatever happens with Bernard, McDermott can live with Johnson or Hamlin at safety.  

 

I've said before that I'm expecting that Poyer is not getting a big deal from the Bills, and he may not be getting a deal at all.  


So…you’re confidently saying that the Bills defensive strategies and concepts can and will change year to year, and in the same breath claiming that Beane’s draft strategy and philosophy most certainly won’t ever change and is set in stone, because if you’re drafted by this team in the 3rd round you’re definitely starting by year 2 at the latest. Unbelievable. Completely inconsistent

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10 hours ago, Rigotz said:

 

 

Why would the Bills change everything about their consistently top ranked defense? Even with Tre White out and Levi Wallace at 1CB, they still held their own. 
 

 

There is no scarier player to defend than Levi Wallace

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26 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:


So…you’re confidently saying that the Bills defensive strategies and concepts can and will change year to year, and in the same breath claiming that Beane’s draft strategy and philosophy most certainly won’t ever change and is set in stone, because if you’re drafted by this team in the 3rd round you’re definitely starting by year 2 at the latest. Unbelievable. Completely inconsistent

Nice argument, but you're wrong.  Until there are some fundamental changes in how the NFL operates, there are some things that remain the same.  One of those is that the way the salary cap and free agency and the cap are currently operated, it's impossible for any team to keep it's good starters year after year after year.   They're always coming and going.   Levy left.   The Bills probably can't keep Edmunds, Knox, Oliver, and Poyer.   It just isn't possible.   

 

The result is that the GM always has to be looking for starter-caliber players.  The lower you go in the draft, the less likely you are to find a starter-caliber player.   The cut-off seems to be the third round.  The measure of success for a third-round pick is "does he become a starter for us?"  If the answer is yes, you drafted well.  If the answer is no, you didn't.  Harrison Philips, for example.  Spencer Brown, for another.  Why is that the case?   Because you can't continually replenish your starters only in the first two rounds.  There are 22 starters, and if they start for you, on average, for six years, that means you need three new starters every year, and you can't get three starters out of two rounds of the draft.  

 

That's the reality in which Beane is operating, and although offense and defense evolves, that has been the reality since modern free agency began, and it shows no signs of changing.  

 

If you want to believe they drafted Bernard to be a role player, you're free to do so.   I seriously doubt it.  I think Beane drafted him to start, and it's McDermott's job to figure out how to start him, and how to start him sooner rather than later.   Just like it was McDermott's job to do it with Harrison Philips and Spencer Brown.  

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2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Nice argument, but you're wrong.  Until there are some fundamental changes in how the NFL operates, there are some things that remain the same.  One of those is that the way the salary cap and free agency and the cap are currently operated, it's impossible for any team to keep it's good starters year after year after year.   They're always coming and going.   Levy left.   The Bills probably can't keep Edmunds, Knox, Oliver, and Poyer.   It just isn't possible.   

 

The result is that the GM always has to be looking for starter-caliber players.  The lower you go in the draft, the less likely you are to find a starter-caliber player.   The cut-off seems to be the third round.  The measure of success for a third-round pick is "does he become a starter for us?"  If the answer is yes, you drafted well.  If the answer is no, you didn't.  Harrison Philips, for example.  Spencer Brown, for another.  Why is that the case?   Because you can't continually replenish your starters only in the first two rounds.  There are 22 starters, and if they start for you, on average, for six years, that means you need three new starters every year, and you can't get three starters out of two rounds of the draft.  

 

That's the reality in which Beane is operating, and although offense and defense evolves, that has been the reality since modern free agency began, and it shows no signs of changing.  

 

If you want to believe they drafted Bernard to be a role player, you're free to do so.   I seriously doubt it.  I think Beane drafted him to start, and it's McDermott's job to figure out how to start him, and how to start him sooner rather than later.   Just like it was McDermott's job to do it with Harrison Philips and Spencer Brown.  


normally pretty cogent, but the leaps of logic and assumptions here are just astounding. This isn’t something you really know much about, unfortunately. “The cutoff seems to be the 3rd round.” Based on what? 
 

constant harping about the cap? You realize the salary cap goes up every year, and is poised to jump significantly. As an actual GM recently said, the salary cap is just accounting. Teams can easily keep the players they deem worthy of keeping. 
 

stick to your recaps, or at least provide something to back up these assumptions of yours posing as fact.

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2 minutes ago, JoPoy88 said:

Based on what? 
 

 

Based on simple observation.  Guys drafted in the third round either start eventually or are off the team, and that's pretty much true around league.  Although there are exceptions (there always are), you don't find third-round picks make a permanent place on anyone's team as special teams player, a role player, or a backup.   Of course, it happens, but when a third-round pick survives only by being in one of those lesser roles, he's viewed as a pick that didn't live up to what his team wanted.  

 

It takes a lot of things to start in the NFL, and one of the things it takes is a minimum level of talent.   All the teams are good at figuring out who has the talent (again, with exceptions - they're wrong about some players in the first rounds, and they're also wrong about guys in the later rounds).   The guys taken in the first round, and pretty much in the second round, are the guys that more or less all GMs agree have the talent to start in the NFL, and maybe even emerge as stars.   The third round is, generally speaking, where you're still likely to find enough talent to start. 

 

Read the draft scouting reports - usually the guys in the fourth round have some physical shortcomings that they're going to have to overcome if they want to be a starter.  This guy doesn't have elite speed, that guy is undersized, another guy is lacking quickness.   In the third round, the scouting reports say that this guy or that guy has physical skills that are adequate to start.  

 

Maybe you haven't noticed that, but it's pretty clear when you look.  

 

The Bills drafted Bernard to start.  

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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

 

 

If you want to believe they drafted Bernard to be a role player, you're free to do so.   I seriously doubt it.  I think Beane drafted him to start, and it's McDermott's job to figure out how to start him, and how to start him sooner rather than later.   .  


Or maybe they drafted him to take over from Milano in a couple of years .

 

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6 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:


Or maybe they drafted him to take over from Milano in a couple of years .

 

Absolutely.   I'm not saying I have the only theory, but I'm sure they drafted him with the expectation that he will be starting eventually.  One person who knows is Milano's agent, who may have recognized on draft night that his client probably is going to be on the move.  

 

Or, if I'm correct, the wrestling mad scientist is cooking some new stuff. 

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