GunnerBill Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 Just now, Ralonzo said: If they run more 2 TE sets I’d prefer a TE2 who is good at any one of: blocking, catching, or route running. Which Sweeney is not. This. Tommy Sweeney won't be on the team anyway. He sucks. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said: This is my single biggest concern about this roster, and also a source of frustration about the relative lack of attention to an area which is critical to protecting Allen. Beane did say after the season ended, that we need to protect Allen more. This is the single area where I don't see his words followed by adequate action. ' Besides OL, I dont see any position as short staffed. Let's not forget how good a coach Kromer is...he will likely coach those guys up to perform pretty well if needed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed_Formerly_of_Roch Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 4 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I used to do this thread each year but haven't done one for a couple of years. In a quiet moment yesterday afternoon I sat down with the roster and tried to work out where I think the decision points will come. So I thought I'd revive this thread as a way of helping crystalise my thoughts. Firstly, this is not a roster prediction, people will start putting together 53s at this stage but my view is always that those last handful of spots are really difficult to correctly forecast until camp and pre-season arrive. This is more about starting to focus in on where the position battles are and where the position v position decisions will come. Key - see colour codes below.... these are important, because red does not mean cut and blue does not mean on the bubble. BLACK - Guaranteed roster spot (excluding major injury or suspension) BLUE - Probable roster spot RED - Fighting for those last few spots Quarterback Josh Allen Case Keenum Matt Barkley Running back Devin Singletary James Cook +2 or 3? Reggie Gilliam FB Zack Moss Taiwan Jones Duke Johnson Raheem Blackshear Wide receiver Stefon Diggs Gabriel Davis Khalil Shakir +3 or 4? Jamison Crowder Isaiah McKenzie Jake Kumerow Marquez Stevenson Tanner Gentry Isaiah Hodgins Neil Pau'u Malik Williams Tight End Dawson Knox O. J. Howard +1? Quintin Morris Tommy Sweeney Jalen Wydermyer Offensive Line Dion Dawkins Spencer Brown Rodger Saffold Mitch Morse Ryan Bates +4 Ike Boettger Tommy Doyle David Quessenberry Cody Ford Greg Mancz Bobby Hart Luke Tenuta Will Ulmer Derek Kerstetter Jacob Capra Alec Anderson Tanner Owen Defensive Line Ed Oliver Von Miller Gregory Rousseau DaQuan Jones Carlos Basham Jr. Tim Settle Jordan Phillips +3 A. J. Epenesa Shaq Lawson Mike Love Eli Ankou Kingsley Jonathan Brandin Bryant Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds Matt Milano Terrel Bernard +3 Tyler Matakevich Tyrel Dodson Andre Smith Baylon Spector Joe Giles-Harris Marquel Lee Cornerback Tre'Davious White Kaiir Elam Taron Johnson Dane Jackson Siran Neal +1 Christian Benford Cam Lewis Travon Fuller Olaijah Griffin Tim Harris Nick McCloud Safety Jordan Poyer Micah Hyde +2 Jaquan Johnson Damar Hamlin Josh Thomas Special Teams Tyler Bass Reid Ferguson +1 Matt Araiza Matt Haack I make that 33 locks and 9 likelys leaving 11 spots for the rest to fight over. Obviously one of those is the winner of the punter battle - which I fully expect to be Araiza, but while the Bills are saying it is a camp battle they both have to be in red. That takes you down to 10 spots. At least 1 more linebacker, at least 1 more offensive lineman, at least 1 more safety and at least 1 more WR/RB.... that takes you down to 6 and then it becomes a question about which spots they want to prioritise having extra depth and special teams. I expect one of Kumerow and Taiwan Jones to make it as a starting gunner but unless Kumerow is legit the 6th best receiver (and maybe he will be) then I wouldn't expect both of them. I expect another corner to make it and Benford as the recent draft pick would seem to have the inside track and then I expect another tight end.... but I am not totally persuaded that guy has to come from the current roster. Could be an area where a vet shakes loose and the Bills scoop him up. So I took your list and edited slightly, hope you don't mind. I went through all the positions and below the names in black added a number in Red that IMO will be the number of total players on the roster in each position group based off numbers they had in prior years and whats typical. Taking your original 33 I added 20 more to bring the total up to the 53 man roster. Likely some combination of the names in red and blue will be chosen. In the case of RB I put 2 or 3, WR I put 3 or 4 ? and TE 1? I'm thinking will be a total of 6 additional players in those three position groups, how that exactly shakes out TBD. Wouldn't be shocked to see one less DL and one more LB too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said: This is my single biggest concern about this roster, and also a source of frustration about the relative lack of attention to an area which is critical to protecting Allen. Beane did say after the season ended, that we need to protect Allen more. This is the single area where I don't see his words followed by adequate action. ' Besides OL, I dont see any position as short staffed. Great post minus the bolded. We don’t have a backup boundary WR option other than Shakir…..and he might or might not be able to handle it. Kumerow isn’t a WR option imo. Strictly ST. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 5 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I used to do this thread each year but haven't done one for a couple of years. In a quiet moment yesterday afternoon I sat down with the roster and tried to work out where I think the decision points will come. So I thought I'd revive this thread as a way of helping crystalise my thoughts. Firstly, this is not a roster prediction, people will start putting together 53s at this stage but my view is always that those last handful of spots are really difficult to correctly forecast until camp and pre-season arrive. This is more about starting to focus in on where the position battles are and where the position v position decisions will come. Key - see colour codes below.... these are important, because red does not mean cut and blue does not mean on the bubble. BLACK - Guaranteed roster spot (excluding major injury or suspension) BLUE - Probable roster spot RED - Fighting for those last few spots Quarterback Josh Allen Case Keenum Matt Barkley Running back Devin Singletary James Cook Reggie Gilliam FB Zack Moss Taiwan Jones Duke Johnson Raheem Blackshear Wide receiver Stefon Diggs Gabriel Davis Khalil Shakir Jamison Crowder Isaiah McKenzie Jake Kumerow Marquez Stevenson Tanner Gentry Isaiah Hodgins Neil Pau'u Malik Williams Tight End Dawson Knox O. J. Howard Quintin Morris Tommy Sweeney Jalen Wydermyer Offensive Line Dion Dawkins Spencer Brown Rodger Saffold Mitch Morse Ryan Bates Ike Boettger Tommy Doyle David Quessenberry Cody Ford Greg Mancz Bobby Hart Luke Tenuta Will Ulmer Derek Kerstetter Jacob Capra Alec Anderson Tanner Owen Defensive Line Ed Oliver Von Miller Gregory Rousseau DaQuan Jones Carlos Basham Jr. Tim Settle Jordan Phillips A. J. Epenesa Shaq Lawson Mike Love Eli Ankou Kingsley Jonathan Brandin Bryant Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds Matt Milano Terrel Bernard Tyler Matakevich Tyrel Dodson Andre Smith Baylon Spector Joe Giles-Harris Marquel Lee Cornerback Tre'Davious White Kaiir Elam Taron Johnson Dane Jackson Siran Neal Christian Benford Cam Lewis Travon Fuller Olaijah Griffin Tim Harris Nick McCloud Safety Jordan Poyer Micah Hyde Jaquan Johnson Damar Hamlin Josh Thomas Special Teams Tyler Bass Reid Ferguson Matt Araiza Matt Haack I make that 33 locks and 9 likelys leaving 11 spots for the rest to fight over. Obviously one of those is the winner of the punter battle - which I fully expect to be Araiza, but while the Bills are saying it is a camp battle they both have to be in red. That takes you down to 10 spots. At least 1 more linebacker, at least 1 more offensive lineman, at least 1 more safety and at least 1 more WR/RB.... that takes you down to 6 and then it becomes a question about which spots they want to prioritise having extra depth and special teams. I expect one of Kumerow and Taiwan Jones to make it as a starting gunner but unless Kumerow is legit the 6th best receiver (and maybe he will be) then I wouldn't expect both of them. I expect another corner to make it and Benford as the recent draft pick would seem to have the inside track and then I expect another tight end.... but I am not totally persuaded that guy has to come from the current roster. Could be an area where a vet shakes loose and the Bills scoop him up. Great breakdown. Thanks. my 2 cents- -moss vs Duke is going to be interesting. I think Moss wins and Duke kicks rocks… unless we’re able to trade Moss if he performs well in preseason. - Hamlin vs Johnson- I would flip flop Hamlin to blue and Johnson to red. Johnson is on the last year of his deal and he has t-rex arms. I’m a fan of Hamlin and hope he can earn the spot. The wild card here is Benford. Is he a corner or a S according to McB? - hoping Wydermyer can take that TE3 spot and run with it. I think he’s could be a solid TE2 after a year or 2. But do we keep 3 TEs? If so, which position gets the axe? - this backup IOL/C spot is scary; as is our replacement for Diggs/Davis on the outside. There’s still time to add talent. If we decide to add a player or two, I hope it’s a IOL/Outside WR…..or a pass rusher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 5 hours ago, GunnerBill said: I used to do this thread each year but haven't done one for a couple of years. In a quiet moment yesterday afternoon I sat down with the roster and tried to work out where I think the decision points will come. So I thought I'd revive this thread as a way of helping crystalise my thoughts. Firstly, this is not a roster prediction, people will start putting together 53s at this stage but my view is always that those last handful of spots are really difficult to correctly forecast until camp and pre-season arrive. This is more about starting to focus in on where the position battles are and where the position v position decisions will come. Key - see colour codes below.... these are important, because red does not mean cut and blue does not mean on the bubble. BLACK - Guaranteed roster spot (excluding major injury or suspension) BLUE - Probable roster spot RED - Fighting for those last few spots Quarterback Josh Allen Case Keenum Matt Barkley Running back Devin Singletary James Cook Reggie Gilliam FB Zack Moss Taiwan Jones Duke Johnson Raheem Blackshear Wide receiver Stefon Diggs Gabriel Davis Khalil Shakir Jamison Crowder Isaiah McKenzie Jake Kumerow Marquez Stevenson Tanner Gentry Isaiah Hodgins Neil Pau'u Malik Williams Tight End Dawson Knox O. J. Howard Quintin Morris Tommy Sweeney Jalen Wydermyer Offensive Line Dion Dawkins Spencer Brown Rodger Saffold Mitch Morse Ryan Bates Ike Boettger Tommy Doyle David Quessenberry Cody Ford Greg Mancz Bobby Hart Luke Tenuta Will Ulmer Derek Kerstetter Jacob Capra Alec Anderson Tanner Owen Defensive Line Ed Oliver Von Miller Gregory Rousseau DaQuan Jones Carlos Basham Jr. Tim Settle Jordan Phillips A. J. Epenesa Shaq Lawson Mike Love Eli Ankou Kingsley Jonathan Brandin Bryant Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds Matt Milano Terrel Bernard Tyler Matakevich Tyrel Dodson Andre Smith Baylon Spector Joe Giles-Harris Marquel Lee Cornerback Tre'Davious White Kaiir Elam Taron Johnson Dane Jackson Siran Neal Christian Benford Cam Lewis Travon Fuller Olaijah Griffin Tim Harris Nick McCloud Safety Jordan Poyer Micah Hyde Jaquan Johnson Damar Hamlin Josh Thomas Special Teams Tyler Bass Reid Ferguson Matt Araiza Matt Haack I make that 33 locks and 9 likelys leaving 11 spots for the rest to fight over. Obviously one of those is the winner of the punter battle - which I fully expect to be Araiza, but while the Bills are saying it is a camp battle they both have to be in red. That takes you down to 10 spots. At least 1 more linebacker, at least 1 more offensive lineman, at least 1 more safety and at least 1 more WR/RB.... that takes you down to 6 and then it becomes a question about which spots they want to prioritise having extra depth and special teams. I expect one of Kumerow and Taiwan Jones to make it as a starting gunner but unless Kumerow is legit the 6th best receiver (and maybe he will be) then I wouldn't expect both of them. I expect another corner to make it and Benford as the recent draft pick would seem to have the inside track and then I expect another tight end.... but I am not totally persuaded that guy has to come from the current roster. Could be an area where a vet shakes loose and the Bills scoop him up. love the thread. Hope you do not mind but the best way I could do this is Make your reds Bold so i can display who among the reds I would like to keep and why Punt God Mat Araiza... this dude is a lock and don't get why he is not locked in. He going to blow people's minds in practices and any competition ends there. Cam Lewis. I think he is a very serviceable backup and makes the team Tyrel Dodson This player fits "the process" mold as he is a solid special teamer Shaq Lawson I have always loved Shaq. Team player and has great play/situational awareness though I hope AJ makes a big step up this year. Marquez Stevenson Love his speed and think he still has a lot to offer... BUT if he keeps mucking or dropping punts/returns in practices even... he will be an early drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 7 hours ago, Mr. WEO said: Why is Gilliam likely to get a spot? He’s not even an every down special teamer He's the only FB on the roster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shaw66 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Gunner - Great summary, thanks. However, I'll admit it leaves me a little disappointed. It's useful to see it, but not all that enlightening, because mostly what you've done is listed all the locks that virtually everyone will agree on. You're right, we haven't seen the camp battles yet, but what I'd really be interested in your current take on the probable 53. That is, tell us your favorites. You had a reason for making Matakevich blue. You seem to agree that you expect Araiza to beat out Haack, so make him blue. I know, you aren't making predictions, but I'd like to see 53 guys in black or blue. Or do nothing. Thanks either way. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 4 hours ago, Big Turk said: Let's not forget how good a coach Kromer is...he will likely coach those guys up to perform pretty well if needed Coach can only do so much . But if the line indeed takes a step up, it will point to Bobby Johnson as having been a problem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Fan in Chicago said: Coach can only do so much . But if the line indeed takes a step up, it will point to Bobby Johnson as having been a problem Based on what he did when everyone and their Mom knew we were running the ball with Roman, and we still led the NFL in rushing, he can do a hell of a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan in Chicago Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 3 hours ago, NewEra said: Great post minus the bolded. We don’t have a backup boundary WR option other than Shakir…..and he might or might not be able to handle it. Kumerow isn’t a WR option imo. Strictly ST. The way I see it, the lack of a speedster limits the advantage we have in Allen's arm. But that is not a fatal flaw to the receiving game as a whole. John Brown is the one who gave Allen a consistent deep threat. Sanders was almost washed up and was no good. So we will be no worse than the 2021 season in that regard. Stevenson is just a hope so we can't base the strategy on him suddenly performing well. But overall, we should have a more balanced passing game with lot of step ups in the short to medium passing game. Perhaps the long yards are going to come from medium completions + YAC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Just now, Fan in Chicago said: The way I see it, the lack of a speedster limits the advantage we have in Allen's arm. But that is not a fatal flaw to the receiving game as a whole. John Brown is the one who gave Allen a consistent deep threat. Sanders was almost washed up and was no good. So we will be no worse than the 2021 season in that regard. Stevenson is just a hope so we can't base the strategy on him suddenly performing well. But overall, we should have a more balanced passing game with lot of step ups in the short to medium passing game. Perhaps the long yards are going to come from medium completions + YAC 💯 I think Gabe is the deep guy. With Diggs getting deep looks when single covered. Gabe doesn’t have the speed you look for downfield but he has everything else. Howard and Knox have decent speed for TEs and Cook is gonna get downfield. We can make it work, but you’re right, we can’t completely take advantage of josh’s arm until we have a burner. But we can still utilize it a bunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said: love the thread. Hope you do not mind but the best way I could do this is Make your reds Bold so i can display who among the reds I would like to keep and why Punt God Mat Araiza... this dude is a lock and don't get why he is not locked in. He going to blow people's minds in practices and any competition ends there. he’s never held. Until he proves he’s capable, I don’t think he can be a lock. 3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said: Cam Lewis. I think he is a very serviceable backup and makes the team i like cam and I think he makes the team…. Unless Benford is corner only in McDs eyes. At that point, they’ll be battling imo. I don’t know enough about Benford to make a case for him except for his physical being. 3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said: Tyrel Dodson This player fits "the process" mold as he is a solid special teamer agreed. We lost klein and replaced him with Bernard. Unless Spector can challenge him, I think he’ll be back. 3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said: Shaq Lawson I have always loved Shaq. Team player and has great play/situational awareness though I hope AJ makes a big step up this year. if we keep with our current stable of DEs, he should def be on the team. Hopefully von can teach Shaq and the kids some new tricks. 3 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said: Marquez Stevenson Love his speed and think he still has a lot to offer... BUT if he keeps mucking or dropping punts/returns in practices even... he will be an early drop. I think you’re blinded by the speed. I think he only has speed to offer ….. That said, if he can improve, with his speed and ability to play the boundary, he’d be a perfect fit in our offense. I’m pulling for him, but if he doesn’t improve a good amount, he might best be IR’d to keep him away from other teams while he continues to work game. I liken him to Robert Foster. He’s got a chance, but he needs to put in the proper work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 I think Hamlin makes it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybrew1 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Quessenberry is a lock. At least, he had better well be…. We’re in big trouble if this cat can’t play. OMG, McKenzie and Crowder are locks too… you’re not doing a very good job at this…. AJ is also a lock, and there are various players that should be in blue not red… I completely disagree with most of this assessment. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said: The way I see it, the lack of a speedster limits the advantage we have in Allen's arm. But that is not a fatal flaw to the receiving game as a whole. John Brown is the one who gave Allen a consistent deep threat. Sanders was almost washed up and was no good. So we will be no worse than the 2021 season in that regard. Stevenson is just a hope so we can't base the strategy on him suddenly performing well. But overall, we should have a more balanced passing game with lot of step ups in the short to medium passing game. Perhaps the long yards are going to come from medium completions + YAC I’m not a 40-time is all that guy, but Khalil Shakir ran 4.43. It isn’t just 40 yard dash times that make a deep threat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 11 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: Good stuff Gunner!! It looks pretty close to accurate. There are only a couple of places that I differ: - I’d move Howard to blue. He likely makes the team but has had injury issues & been a disappointment. I loved that guy coming out but wouldn’t be shocked if he was cut. He would have to be a nightmare because almost all of his money is guaranteed. I’m just saying if he is totally outplayed by someone like Wydermyer (for example) I could see them eating the $3M. Unlikely but not impossible IMO - I’d move all 3 OL in blue to red. I’m just not sure that the Bills have a sense how the depth will shake out at this point. - I’d flip flop Dodson and Matakevich. Dodson played well last year & Matakevich COULD be used to free up some cash if they get a camp injury. - Ariaza to blue (or even black). He isn’t battling with Haack. He is here to replace him. If he’s an absolute nightmare as a holder I think that it’s possible they buck the trend & have someone other than the punter hold (Kumerow maybe). Haack was terrible & Beane commented as much last year. He drafted one of the most talented punters ever. I don’t think hangtime is his major concern. He wanted Araiza to dig them out when the offense sputters in their own end. My $.02 and a great job overall. I don't think cutting Matakevich will save anything. I believe his agent re-structured it to make it so. He has a $750K dead cap hit on a $1.65M base salary. If it saves anything it would be the difference between $915K and the non-vet minimum..........and normally vet min is about $1M but only counts around $600K against the cap. Not sure how it works on salaries that low that are so little above the minimum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave_Bills Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Only minor quibble is I would probably have Phillips in blue Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. WEO Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 12 hours ago, Big Turk said: He serves a function nobody else on the roster can. Ie, play fullback when they need him to a few plays a game. His appearances at fullback were too rare too be meaningful. 14% of snaps. He's not on the roster for that. 9 hours ago, Ralonzo said: Gilliam is multiple with a blocking gadget role inline/H-back/fullback that others can’t replicate (looking at you Tommy Sweeney). Most teams don't bother with FB/H-back. Sweeney had twice as many snaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
In Summary Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Looking at the roster, OL is my only area of concern. Less about the starters than the depth. 17 games plus playoffs will take more than 5 OL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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