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Trent McDuffie vs Kaiir Elam


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1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Not at all.

 

Beane specifically said that "when McDuffie was picked there was only one guy left with a first round grade" on their board. In other words, there were two until then.

 

He was almost certainly on their board.

 

Which guy was higher we will never know, but they were interested.

 

And they've picked guys they didn't bring in before.

 

 

 

I watched it and didn't see anything to indicate that. What specifically on Embedded showed that?

 


 

Can you name a 1st round pick in Beane era when top 30 visits were allowed (so not last year) - where the Bills have drafted a 1st rounder that was not a visit?

 

The bigger question related to that was if they were considering McDuffie - why not have him in for a visit?  They had Booth and McCreary in along with Elam.  It was confirmed that McDuffie was not a visit.  That is the biggest compelling reason to think he was not on the list - that would fly in the face of multiple years of data to suggest they would suddenly do that.

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

Can you name a 1st round pick in Beane era when top 30 visits were allowed (so not last year) - where the Bills have drafted a 1st rounder that was not a visit?

 

The bigger question related to that was if they were considering McDuffie - why not have him in for a visit?  They had Booth and McCreary in along with Elam.  It was confirmed that McDuffie was not a visit.  That is the biggest compelling reason to think he was not on the list - that would fly in the face of multiple years of data to suggest they would suddenly do that.

 

This on the bolded.  Also I don't recall Beane specifically mentioning McDuffie when talking about 1-1st rounder being left on their board, just that Elam was the last one left.  But Beane might have realized that McDuffie was considered a 1st rounder to other teams.

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This top 30 visit thing is getting alot of run....I'd like to point out a couple things.

 

I posted quite a while back that we can't know for sure where the Bills had McDuffie rated.  Some in this thread are driving the point that the Bills didn't have McDuffie in for a top 30 visit.  KC also didn't.  If Derek Stingly had fallent to pick 18, 19 etc...would the Bills have avoided trading up for him because he hadn't been in for a top 30 visit?  I think there is a fairly strong case to be made that McDuffie wasn't brought in for a top 30 visit by KC or Buffalo becasue he was projected to be a top 15 pick by just about any mock and big borad out there.  

 

I don't think Beane would pass on a highly ranked guy because he wasn't a visit.  In the case of Brett Veach and KC...Veach noted that KC had only met with McDuffie once briefly at a bowl game or something and that was due to him not being a prospect they forsaw being available into the 20's.  

 

I would also like to point out KC typicaly also has a "type" they like at CB...tall, long arms.  KC took a couple more corners later in the draft..6 foot or better with long arms.  They mentioned that McDuffies other traits, high motor, tackling ability, willingness to be a dog VS the run...etc was more than enough to accept he had SLIGHTLY shortern than 30 inch arm length.  

 

I also think that Elam is a player KC would have drafted at 29/30 because he does have traits KC likes....the same ones you've all mentioned here.  KC fans considered Elam a strong possibility and was a popular choice in fan and local media mock drafts.  I don't think anyone in KC is knocking on the player...we'd have been glad to have him.  I think the debate is more about the possibility that the Bills may or may not have had Elam higher.  We will never know.  And the idea that Elam wasn't especialy popular with Bills fans unti lthe Bills drafted him.....wich is fine.  KC has had some of that going on with Karlaftis...he's quite a bit more popular now, than he was before KC took him.  I'd also gently point out that this place nearly melted down when the Bills took "the wrong Josh" and that it worked out.

 

In my opinion...I think the Bills probably had Elam and McDuffie rated very similarly.  I had thought that the Patriots being at 21 was a block to the Bills moving to that spot in particular....but thinking on that further, NE has had no trouble doing business with division rivals for trades etc.  I also think that since we know Beane and the Bills were talkinga about moving up starting at pick 20...that it can be said KC and Buffalo (and who knows who else) were calling them at 21.  KC overpaid to get there.  Suggests the Bills could have had an offer on the board to go from 25 to 21...and KC had to up the bid to get it done..

 

Lastly....regarding Booth....Booth, was projected AFTER McDuffie in most drats...usually showing up on mocks and big boards from the very late teens to the late 20's.  Having booth and Elam in for visits MAY have been at least in some part, due to the idea the Bills were interested in learning more about prospects they might reasonably expect to be available when they drafted.

 

To sum up.  We don't know, and won't ever know how the Bills rated these guys.  Speculating about what we think is possible, probably, likely, etc...is fun to do and discuss as fans.  

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6 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

This on the bolded.  Also I don't recall Beane specifically mentioning McDuffie when talking about 1-1st rounder being left on their board, just that Elam was the last one left.  But Beane might have realized that McDuffie was considered a 1st rounder to other teams.


 

I believe he had a question about KC moving up for McDuffie and Beane did respond that when McDuffie went off the board they had 1 player with a 1st round grade left.  What he did not say was that prior to the McDuffie pick that he had 2.

 

Beane mentioned McDuffie because it was in the context of the question asked to him.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

This top 30 visit thing is getting alot of run....I'd like to point out a couple things.

 

I posted quite a while back that we can't know for sure where the Bills had McDuffie rated.  Some in this thread are driving the point that the Bills didn't have McDuffie in for a top 30 visit.  KC also didn't.  If Derek Stingly had fallent to pick 18, 19 etc...would the Bills have avoided trading up for him because he hadn't been in for a top 30 visit?  I think there is a fairly strong case to be made that McDuffie wasn't brought in for a top 30 visit by KC or Buffalo becasue he was projected to be a top 15 pick by just about any mock and big borad out there.  

 

I don't think Beane would pass on a highly ranked guy because he wasn't a visit.  In the case of Brett Veach and KC...Veach noted that KC had only met with McDuffie once briefly at a bowl game or something and that was due to him not being a prospect they forsaw being available into the 20's.  

 

I would also like to point out KC typicaly also has a "type" they like at CB...tall, long arms.  KC took a couple more corners later in the draft..6 foot or better with long arms.  They mentioned that McDuffies other traits, high motor, tackling ability, willingness to be a dog VS the run...etc was more than enough to accept he had SLIGHTLY shortern than 30 inch arm length.  

 

I also think that Elam is a player KC would have drafted at 29/30 because he does have traits KC likes....the same ones you've all mentioned here.  KC fans considered Elam a strong possibility and was a popular choice in fan and local media mock drafts.  I don't think anyone in KC is knocking on the player...we'd have been glad to have him.  I think the debate is more about the possibility that the Bills may or may not have had Elam higher.  We will never know.  And the idea that Elam wasn't especialy popular with Bills fans unti lthe Bills drafted him.....wich is fine.  KC has had some of that going on with Karlaftis...he's quite a bit more popular now, than he was before KC took him.  I'd also gently point out that this place nearly melted down when the Bills took "the wrong Josh" and that it worked out.

 

In my opinion...I think the Bills probably had Elam and McDuffie rated very similarly.  I had thought that the Patriots being at 21 was a block to the Bills moving to that spot in particular....but thinking on that further, NE has had no trouble doing business with division rivals for trades etc.  I also think that since we know Beane and the Bills were talkinga about moving up starting at pick 20...that it can be said KC and Buffalo (and who knows who else) were calling them at 21.  KC overpaid to get there.  Suggests the Bills could have had an offer on the board to go from 25 to 21...and KC had to up the bid to get it done..

 

Lastly....regarding Booth....Booth, was projected AFTER McDuffie in most drats...usually showing up on mocks and big boards from the very late teens to the late 20's.  Having booth and Elam in for visits MAY have been at least in some part, due to the idea the Bills were interested in learning more about prospects they might reasonably expect to be available when they drafted.

 

To sum up.  We don't know, and won't ever know how the Bills rated these guys.  Speculating about what we think is possible, probably, likely, etc...is fun to do and discuss as fans.  

 

I still don't think McDuffie was on their board. Do I think the Bills would have drafted Stingley if he fell to #20 or something? Yes. But the fact is Stingley didn't and Beane is extremely good at predicting these things. The reason they always end up drafting a guy they have had in on a visit is they generally are exceptional at knowing the scenarios that could play out for them. Could it be that they just presumed McDuffie would be gone so didn't bother having him in? Of course it could, but when you put it against the other evidence does that seem the most likely explanation? Not to me it doesn't. 

 

None of these things are persuasive on their own, but to me when you build the evidence of what we do know or what we have been told then you get to a more likely scenario and a less likely scenario. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There are three pieces of evidence actually. Top 30. Physical profile. Bills trying to trade up before the McDuffie pick.

 

And I am not saying I know what happened. I am saying I think when you weigh it all up one is more likely than the other. I don't think that is confirmation bias at all. I think it is an honest and objective assessment of what we know and what we have been told. It doesn't make it a slam dunk, but if you told me I had $100 and I had to put it either on "they were interested in McDuffie" or "they weren't interested in McDuffie" I know where I'd put it. 

 

I don't think "well they could have broken their tendencies" without any reason why this case is different than all the others is a counter balance to the evidence. Is there still doubt? Yes. Of course. We will likely never see their draft board, but I think what we do know definitely leans one way. 

 

 

Your opinion is fair enough. I really disagree. And you're certainly right that we may never know. But it looks pretty clear to me that this is one that could go either way, and that you could easily win or lose that $100. Which is why I wouldn't bet on that proposition even if we could find a way to get a clear 100% answer.

 

But you have two pieces of "evidence," not three. The trade thing shows them doing absolutely nothing that they would not have been very likely to do even if they liked both guys very much and had first round grades on both. You say they were "trying to trade up before the McDuffie pick." There is ZERO evidence of that. They could very easily have simply been doing what Beane constantly does, which is to kick the tires on options, check the values and prepare for alternative situations depending on how the picks fell. Zero reason to think they weren't getting ready in case one of Elam and McDuffie had been picked. They were also preparing to trade back if the situation was conducive to that. Preparing for different possibilities and not committing to anything till the right time is part of their M.O.

 

And again, Beane said in the PC that it was after McDuffie was picked that they felt they had only one guy left with a first-round grade. That's evidence just as strong as yours if not stronger, and it indicates that before McDuffie was picked they had two.

 

They have broken tendencies before. They have done it because they don't evaluate guys on one factor, but on many. McDuffie has terrific movement skills and ability to shadow. The reason they're tendencies rather than rules is because a player is a package of many traits rather than just one. They break tendencies when the player makes them feel it's a good idea.

 

You certainly could be right. But neither of those two facts have any more than very mild supporting value. They've chosen many picks, including their first rounder last year, who they didn't bring in for visits. And they've broken tendencies before when the player they wanted made it seem worthwhile to them.

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....I would posit that I don't think this would even be a topic here IF Elam was a pre draft popular choice among Bills fans.  It seems (to me at least) there is an element of the general Bills fanbase talking themselves into liking this more after the fact.  

 

KC fans are doing the same thing regarding Karlaftis becasue many (including me) didn't see him as a great pass rusher and felt there might be other options better suited to getting to the QB.  (I personally liked Ebiketie better) What KC fans are not doing in the McDuffie VS Elam debate is tryng to reconcile among themselves that KC got McDuffie.  We never expected him to be available and we are glad to have him.

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15 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

....I would posit that I don't think this would even be a topic here IF Elam was a pre draft popular choice among Bills fans.  It seems (to me at least) there is an element of the general Bills fanbase talking themselves into liking this more after the fact.  

 

KC fans are doing the same thing regarding Karlaftis becasue many (including me) didn't see him as a great pass rusher and felt there might be other options better suited to getting to the QB.  (I personally liked Ebiketie better) What KC fans are not doing in the McDuffie VS Elam debate is tryng to reconcile among themselves that KC got McDuffie.  We never expected him to be available and we are glad to have him.

 

I am not talking myself into Elam. I have been clear throughout that I had McDuffie graded higher than Elam (26th on my board vs 35th on my board). That is not my point AT ALL. I would have taken Booth depending on health and Gordon if not. But I don't think McDuffie was their guy. He doesn't meet any of their normal criteria. I have been absolutely consistent on this over the last two months. He would have been a considerable departure from their process. That doesn't mean I am arguing Elam > McDuffie in an objective sense but I am arguing if KC had traded up and taken Elam at #21 then the Bills would still not have taken McDuffie. I don't think there is any scenario in which McDuffie was the Bills 1st round pick personally. I think he is a good player. He was arguably the highest or maybe 2nd highest floor of the top 7 corners in the draft. Elam is definitely more boom or bust than McDuffie. But he also meets far more of the criteria that the Bills live and die by when it comes to first round draft picks. 

25 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Your opinion is fair enough. I really disagree. And you're certainly right that we may never know. But it looks pretty clear to me that this is one that could go either way, and that you could easily win or lose that $100. Which is why I wouldn't bet on that proposition even if we could find a way to get a clear 100% answer.

 

But you have two pieces of "evidence," not three. The trade thing shows them doing absolutely nothing that they would not have been very likely to do even if they liked both guys very much and had first round grades on both. You say they were "trying to trade up before the McDuffie pick." There is ZERO evidence of that. They could very easily have simply been doing what Beane constantly does, which is to kick the tires on options, check the values and prepare for alternative situations depending on how the picks fell. Zero reason to think they weren't getting ready in case one of Elam and McDuffie had been picked. They were also preparing to trade back if the situation was conducive to that. Preparing for different possibilities and not committing to anything till the right time is part of their M.O.

 

And again, Beane said in the PC that it was after McDuffie was picked that they felt they had only one guy left with a first-round grade. That's evidence just as strong as yours if not stronger, and it indicates that before McDuffie was picked they had two.

 

They have broken tendencies before. They have done it because they don't evaluate guys on one factor, but on many. McDuffie has terrific movement skills and ability to shadow. The reason they're tendencies rather than rules is because a player is a package of many traits rather than just one. They break tendencies when the player makes them feel it's a good idea.

 

You certainly could be right. But neither of those two facts have any more than very mild supporting value. They've chosen many picks, including their first rounder last year, who they didn't bring in for visits. And they've broken tendencies before when the player they wanted made it seem worthwhile to them.

 

It really, isn't. You dismiss an actual piece of evidence that the Bills were seen trying to trade up before the KC trade as "ah probably just them doing what they always do" and then take a factual statement from Beane and extrapolate out from it. They didn't bring their first rounder in for visits last year because visits were not a thing. They did multiple zooms with Rousseau. 

 

There is someone engaging in confirmation bias here, but I with respect, it isn't me. 

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1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said:

This top 30 visit thing is getting alot of run....I'd like to point out a couple things.

 

I posted quite a while back that we can't know for sure where the Bills had McDuffie rated.  Some in this thread are driving the point that the Bills didn't have McDuffie in for a top 30 visit.  KC also didn't...

 

Doesn't matter what KC did or didn't do.  The Bills have only drafted 1st rounders in their top-30 interviews except last year, when there were no interviews.  Plus the other things that wouldn't make McDuffie a fit for the Bills.

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It’s entirely possible that Beane wanted Elam but figured that most teams had McDuffie ranked higher.  If that’s the case, Beane likely wasn’t worried about getting jumped by a team seeking a CB because that team would probably be targeting McDuffie.  Once McDuffie was taken, Elam would then be the likely target of teams, so Beane moved up and grabbed him.

 

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I went back and watched the 2021 Bills embedded video to see how that looked as they picked Rousseau.  

 

It's interesting that in that video, they show Beane and the staff talking about Rousseau A LOT as they get closer to pick 30 (where the Bills selected in 2021) and there were some thoughts even about trading up for Rousseau as things progressed.  They showed them talking about him and what he would bring to the table..showed them talking to Kim and Terry about Rousseau in the war room as the draft is happening. 

 

When you watch the embedded for 2022, they aren't talking about Elam by name at all..only that 2 corners went pick 3 and 4 and Beane is already thinking of trading out of round 1 thinking other corner(s) are going to be gone before 25 that the Bills like.  In the 2021 Rousseau they show Bean fist bumping other staff when they take Rousseau.  They don't show film of them actually making the call on Elam.  They don't show them talking to the Pegulas or any of that like that did with Rousseau.

 

Again, this isn't proof of anything but it does suggest the Bills brass wasn't exactly sitting there hoping that it was Elam.  Having selected him, you'd think they'd show footage of the war room guys talking about what Elam brings to the table if they could draft him....like they did with Rousseau.  I suspect they didn't show anything like that with Elam because it doesn't exist.  There would be no reason not to include it if they had it.

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5 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

I went back and watched the 2021 Bills embedded video to see how that looked as they picked Rousseau.  

 

It's interesting that in that video, they show Beane and the staff talking about Rousseau A LOT as they get closer to pick 30 (where the Bills selected in 2021) and there were some thoughts even about trading up for Rousseau as things progressed.  They showed them talking about him and what he would bring to the table..showed them talking to Kim and Terry about Rousseau in the war room as the draft is happening. 

 

When you watch the embedded for 2022, they aren't talking about Elam by name at all..only that 2 corners went pick 3 and 4 and Beane is already thinking of trading out of round 1 thinking other corner(s) are going to be gone before 25 that the Bills like.  In the 2021 Rousseau they show Bean fist bumping other staff when they take Rousseau.  They don't show film of them actually making the call on Elam.  They don't show them talking to the Pegulas or any of that like that did with Rousseau.

 

Again, this isn't proof of anything but it does suggest the Bills brass wasn't exactly sitting there hoping that it was Elam.  Having selected him, you'd think they'd show footage of the war room guys talking about what Elam brings to the table if they could draft him....like they did with Rousseau.  I suspect they didn't show anything like that with Elam because it doesn't exist.  There would be no reason not to include it if they had it.


 

So are you suggesting they were trying to move up for McDuffie and then settled on Moving up for Elam?

 

This makes almost no sense at all.

 

Before and while the NE/KC trade is going on - the Bills are looking to move up for someone.  After the KC pick - they continue to look to move up with GB and GB want the LB.

 

They then move up with Baltimore.

 

Beane said in post that they assumed when CBs went 4+5 there would be another run in the teens and he assumed their guy was going to be gone - so they explored looking back.  Just in case.

 

I think the biggest difference in the Embedded Series was TG over JS.  Joe was very vocal and outgoing and Gray seems more reserved - I think the entire war room seemed more reserved.

 

Also last year - people could not get together for the dratf war room in the same way - so I am sure there was a lot more talk about what he could bring because not all of that was explained in the lead up.

 

I believe they showed that same what does he bring type footage with TG and BG pre-draft as they finalized the board.

 

Again without their board - we will never know, but for a team that was moving toward more man - Elam was the better fit all the way around.  The local guys starting pointing to Elam when it was confirmed the week of the draft that he had a visit - before that many were leaning toward a guy like Hall that had a visit.

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Billl said:

It’s entirely possible that Beane wanted Elam but figured that most teams had McDuffie ranked higher.  If that’s the case, Beane likely wasn’t worried about getting jumped by a team seeking a CB because that team would probably be targeting McDuffie.  Once McDuffie was taken, Elam would then be the likely target of teams, so Beane moved up and grabbed him.

 


 

It could be, but then why were they trying to move up before the McDuffie pick?  They are literally on the phone working trades when the KC/NE deal is announced.  
 

So prior to the McDuffie pick - they knew they had to move up for someone.
 

I can’t prove, but still firmly believe they were worried about Tennessee (looking for a press corner) was going to move up to get Elam.  That is where the concern was for trades.

 

The Bills and Tennessee both scouted Elam, McCreary, and Booth and I think they felt Tennessee was looking at the same picks as they were.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

So are you suggesting they were trying to move up for McDuffie and then settled on Moving up for Elam?

 

No.  I can't prove that.  I am suggesting that they weren't zeroed in on Elam.  Watching the Rousseau embedded from last year, it's obvious he was their man the whole time.  They talked about him constantly as the draft goes on, considering a trade up specificially for him.  If the Bills were all about moving up only for Elam, they would have Beane and others talkin about it Elam...like they did with Rousseau.  The Bills could still have had Elam ranked ahead of McDuffie.  We don't know that.  The Bill could have thought KC or others might be going for Elam.  The fact the Bills still moved up for Elam shows they really did have him ranked highly and wanted him.  I am not saying who was ranked where.  I am saying....contrary to many posters here...Elam wasn't the only guy they were looking at.  It seems like they had McDuffie ranked nearly has high, possibly higher, possibly lower...but likely as one of the first rounders they would have gladly drafted.  

 

7 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

Again without their board - we will never know, but for a team that was moving toward more man - Elam was the better fit all the way around.  The local guys starting pointing to Elam when it was confirmed the week of the draft that he had a visit - before that many were leaning toward a guy like Hall that had a visit.

 

 

 

I would maintain that having Elam in for a visit is BOTH in line with what the Bills like at CB...AND because he was projected to be drafted in the range the Bills could reasonably expect to be able to obtain him.  I undertand the history of them picking guys in round 1 with visits.  

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2 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

....I would posit that I don't think this would even be a topic here IF Elam was a pre draft popular choice among Bills fans.  It seems (to me at least) there is an element of the general Bills fanbase talking themselves into liking this more after the fact.  

 

KC fans are doing the same thing regarding Karlaftis becasue many (including me) didn't see him as a great pass rusher and felt there might be other options better suited to getting to the QB.  (I personally liked Ebiketie better) What KC fans are not doing in the McDuffie VS Elam debate is tryng to reconcile among themselves that KC got McDuffie.  We never expected him to be available and we are glad to have him.

I'd say that's more the people that talked themselves on Offensive player or bust backing off that ledge, most people I've seen on here after getting a brief explanation of Elam just nodded like "yeah that makes sense."

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2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I'd say that's more the people that talked themselves on Offensive player or bust backing off that ledge, most people I've seen on here after getting a brief explanation of Elam just nodded like "yeah that makes sense."

 

I'd say it's more people wanting to know whether they lost-out on McDuffie and had to settle for Elam, since the people who wanted a CB in the 1st round wanted someone else (I never committed because I didn't know who would be available and if they might trade way up, but I always trusted their scouting when it came to CBs).  We can speculate all we want on what happened but as I said, actions speak louder than words and the McBeane Bills have always drafted a player in their top-30 interviews (when they were allowed to do them, which wasn't last year) and they have never been shy about trading-down.

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On 5/9/2022 at 7:01 PM, Rigotz said:

I think you’re making a lot of assumptions here and I don’t necessarily agree.

 

The Bills run a press man zone scheme. You know what’s a really bad quality to have in press man zone? Short arms. It makes it very difficult to control the WR at the line because you become easily overpowered.

 

McDuffie is a great cover corner - vastly superior in Man Cover at short distances, so I’m not surprised he was drafted first. However, Elam is actually a superior scheme fit for the Bills.

 

The rankings specific to the Bills scheme probably went:

- Sauce

- Stingley

- Booth (injured)

- Elam

- McDuffie

 

My guess is we traded up when McDuffie was taken because there was a steep dropoff after Elam. I also think this has absolutely nothing to do with Belichick. He traded out because he wanted more picks… had zero to do with wanting the Bills to not get a specific corner - that’s insane.

So, could you explain a press man zone scheme, please?  Is it a cover-5?

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22 hours ago, jjmac said:

So, could you explain a press man zone scheme, please?  Is it a cover-5?


They mostly play Cover 2 or Cover 3. With heavy focus on “multiple” fronts that can be disguised via the base nickel.

 

I call it press man zone as shorthand because they play both man and zone, but a significant amount of DBs press at the LOS.

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