Alphas Draft thoughts...Our picks, post draft Bills, and Beane

[Alphadawg7]

Not gonna do another draft grade here, don't really see the point of grading picks.  No one here or in the media has any insight on how the Bills graded and ranked players or why.  But just some thoughts on the draft picks, our roster now, and Beane:

• Draft
  • Kaiir Elam - LOVE this pick!  Its no secret I was adamant that the biggest need was without question a CB heading into the draft.  While I was not insistent on it needing to be addressed in the first, I felt strongly it would be and it was the best place to do it.  I thought Booth might be higher on their board based on style of play, but I always loved Elam as well, so was stoked he was the guy.  He brings versatility to our defense in how we can play, speed, size and aggressiveness.  The negatives on him are all coachable as well.  
    • But what I really love about this kid is everything that came out after he was picked.  Showing up with his notebook, showing humility and hunger to be better, asking them what Tre does to be so great and what he can be better at, asking the same from Tre himself, asking for the playbook on the flight in, etc.  Everything about this kid tells me that he is setup to reach his potential here, and this kid entered the draft already with a high ceiling.  My gut feeling is this kid is going to be good to very good in the NFL as I have full confidence in our staff's ability to coach him up.  
  • James Cook - LOVE this pick!  This is the guy I wanted from the get go.  I would have been excited for a Hall or Walker as well, but I am in the camp that has a lot of confidence in Devin and posted many times about his production last year when given 13 or more carries (7 games) and how it projected out to 1400 yards and 17 TDs over a full season.  Devin has his limitations though as good as he can be, and those are he is not a great receiver out of the back field and while he is quick and shifty he isn't a home run threat.  Enter Cook who is excellent in those very things.  I think this is going to be a very potent 1-2 punch which I prefer over a bell cow back anyway helping keeping each other fresh thought games and the season.  
    • Note:  Devin was so good last year when given carries yet was still playing behind a bad OL most the year.  I think adding Saffold and bringing Bates back, plus another year of experience now for Brown and adding Kromer will make this unit a better run blocking unit.  Not to mention the exit of Daboll and his allergy to running at times.  
  • Terrell Bernard - Not gonna pretend I knew much about him until the Bills picked him.  But I have spent time now watching his highlights and reading in depth about him, and I can say there is a lot to like here.  After seeing what our staff did to develop Milano, I am excited to see how they use and develop Bernard.  
  • Khalil Shakir - LOVE this pick!  He was someone I thought could be a target for the Bills if they didn't take a WR in rounds 1 or 2.  I actually liked him as much or more than just about anyone that would have been available in round 2.  Not gonna pretend I make my own rankings list which would be silly, I just find prospects I think would fit us and could be available when we pick.  
    • And Shakir is one of my favorite players in this draft.  Player comparisons get way over used, but its hard not to watch him play and not think of Kupp the way he runs routes, uses his body and his hands.  And with the ball in his hands he has those AJ Brown and Deebo Samuel type moves and toughness too.  I have no idea why this kid wasn't graded to go earlier to be honest and mind blown he lasted to the 5th.  Best value pick of the draft IMHO.  
    • As much as I love this pick, it will be tough for him to get a lot of targets this year without some injuries just given the guys we have at WR already in Diggs, Davis, and Crowder.  Not to mention, Knox and Howard at TE, and now Cook at RB who should all get their share of targets too.  But I can't wait to see what he does with those opportunities and I think he has a bright future ahead of him long term.
  • Matt Araiza - LOVE this pick!  I would have also loved Stout or really any punter not named Matt Haack who I felt was the worst player on our team last year.  Great, he is excellent at holding, but who cares, someone else can be trained to hold for Bass.  Araiza has some things to work on, but what I love most about him is his competitive streak and toughness.  This kid wants it and wants it bad, and that for me gives me confidence he will make the adjustments he needs to be consistent in the NFL.  Everything I read and have seen from him makes me think he can be a Pro Bowl punter at this level.  
  • Benford, Tenuta, Spector - I really liked the Benford pick, I felt he could be a good fit here coming into the draft when I was looking at CB's we could get in the middle or later rounds for depth.  If anyone read my posts leading up to the draft, I thought there was a good chance we would take 2 corners as we needed the depth.  The other 2 I don't know a ton about, but my guess is they will have a good chance to compete for depth as the depth at those positions is not great right now.  Spector probably is going to need to show some ST skills to have any shot of making this roster. 

 

• State of the Bills - Post Draft
  • I feel like I have said this the past few seasons, but this is the most excited I have ever been for a season to start.  Last year, I was excited but I wasn't sure we were ready yet to get to the SB.  I knew we could, but ending the season in KC in 2020 we just didn't look like a team ready to be on their level.  So entering last year, I was excited and optimistic, but still unsure if we were SB bound.  This year is different...I know this team that ended on the field again in KC last year could have, and probably should have, won last years SB.  
  • Now I look at this team after the dust has settled from FA and the Draft, and its clear we are an even better team and roster today than even we were end of this past season.  
    • Defense/ST:
      • Interior DL is substantially upgraded, and I don't use the word "substantially" loosely.  People are going to be surprised I think to how good the Settle and Jones signings were, not to mention Jordan.  I have full confidence that we will be both better at penetration from the middle and at stopping the run.  
      • Pass Rush looks to be better given we were able to get pressure (5th in the NFL) but not always close (10th in sacks).  Now we have a closer in Miller and we get to see what Greg can do in his second year after a promising first year (which was also his first year back to football since 2019).  
      • CB Just getting Tre back is boost on its own, but now adding Elam to compete with Dane will only make our secondary stronger.  
      • Not having Haack likely punt this year is a blessing.
    • Offense:
      • Run game is going to IMO be much better just with Daboll gone and having Kromer here.  But we also added Saffold and brought back Bates, who really helped boost the line last year when he became a starter.  Plus adding Cook as a complimentary RB is going to be a great fit to this offense.  Everything guys like Devin and Moss aren't great at, Cook excels.  
      • Receivers are better this year too.  Davis has arrived IMO, and he is in line for a good season this year.  People are sleeping on Crowder, this guy is going to be dangerous catching passes from Josh and I love adding Shakir into the mix.  McKenzie is back, but honestly, I think McKenzie doesn't see a big change in his role without injuries, still an excellent weapon to have on the team when needed and great depth.  
      • Tight Ends got a boost too with the addition of Howard coming in to pair along side Knox in 2 TE sets.  
      • Josh Allen has also been working this offseason to improve his ball placement to maximize YAC. Every year he picks an area of focus to keep improving.  I really think its his time now and has a real shot at MVP, SB Champion and SB MVP all this year.  But I know Josh ONLY cares about one of those things...hoisting the Lombardi.  

 

• Brandon Beane - Just gonna say what I have been saying for a while now...he is one of the best, if not the the best, GM in the NFL.  I personally think he is the best GM in football and wouldn't swap him for anyone.  He is already getting that kind of praise around the league now too and it will get cemented when we take home a SB Title.  
  • Surprisingly some people still don't get this:  Beane is always a straight shooter...why some people try and speculate differently when he speaks is puzzling to me.  Listen to the man and its not hard to figure out what he is thinking.  
  • Love his accountability too like when he openly admitted to getting the Teller decision wrong and wished he gave him more time.  A mistake he said he wont make again...which is probably some insight to why Ford is still here despite a lot of people thinking they would trade or cut him by now.  I bet he wants to see what Kromer thinks of him and do with working with him.

 

CONCLUSION:  This team is much improved and I think, in as an unbiased way possible, that we have the best roster today in the NFL.  Now, the games still need to be played, and we still have question marks heading into the season with a new OC, some new starters in key places, etc.  But overall, Beane crushed FA adding a closer in Miller and shoring up our trenches on both sides of the ball.  Then IMHO, he crushed the draft shoring up our 2 weakest positions (CB and P) while adding some exciting playmakers that should fit nicely into this offense as well.  

 

It really feels like something special is brewing and this is our time.  

 

GO BILLS!

Edited May 3, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[Lagoon Blues]

Nice write up man.  Thanks!

[freddyjj]

20 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Bernard, Tenuta, Spector - I really liked the Bernard pick, I felt he could be a good fit here coming into the draft when I was looking at CB's we could get in the middle or later rounds for depth

Thanks for awesome write-up Alpha.  You may want to correct bolded section as believe you are referring to Benford, Villanova CB picked in 6th Rd.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Thanks for awesome write-up Alpha.  You may want to correct bolded section as believe you are referring to Benford, Villanova CB picked in 6th Rd.

 

Thanks, yeah fixed it as it keeps autocorrecting to Bernard on me

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[TampaBillsJunkie]

Good job. Well thought out. I'm in agreement with pretty much every point and very excited as well. Strength and conditioning will be the key. With everyone healthy, this is a dangerous team that will make a deep run and should hoist that beautiful baby that eluded us for so long.  I may be in the minority, but one poster pointed out some interesting traits about Bernard that make him more of a Poyer than a Milano.  Seeing that the hole may be there if we don't resign Poyer long term, I tend to lean that way too.

Edited May 3, 2022 by TampaBillsJunkie

[freddyjj]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Thanks, yeah fixed it as it keeps autocorrecting to Bernard on me

 

No sweat - if we are lucky - in 3 years when these 2 are starting, every announcer will make same mistake

Edited May 3, 2022 by freddyjj

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, TampaBillsJunkie said:

Good job. Well thought out. I'm in agreement with pretty much every point and very excited as well. Strength and conditioning will be the key. With everyone healthy, this is a dangerous team that will make a deep run and should hoist that beautiful baby that eluded us for so long.  I may be in the minority, but one poster pointed out some interesting traits about Bernard that make him more of a Poyer than a Milano.  Seeing that the hole may be there if we don't resign Poyer long term, I tend to lean that way too.

 

Yeah I have seen some speculation and things suggesting he could make that transition at some point too.  But I don't think thats something they will look at doing this year the way Beane spoke about him post draft though.  

[Coach Tuesday]

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Thanks for all the time you put into this.

 

I should add something substantive, but all I can say right now is I read your title as "our picks, post draft booze, and Beane"

(hat tip to Beane on Pat McAfee show)

[Max Fischer]

There's a lot to like but I wonder if we should temper our expectations. I'd be more comfortable if Elam and Jackson fought it out for CB2, but Elam is likely to start the first month regardless of how ready he'll be. Araiza should easily take the starting job, but it will take time to adjust to the WNY weather. No need to rush all the others. 

 

 

[Bleedbuffaloblue]

Excellent summary. Thanks for taking the time to do it and share with the board. Totally agree with all of you points and opinions.

Barring some serious injuries to key players this team is definitely SB bound!

[Royale with Cheese]

"We don't have the best roster because we lack WR depth and Allen carries the team completely on his back.  If Allen, Diggs, Davis, McKenzie and Crowder get injured...we are in trouble because of Beane."

- ScottLaw

[Einstein's Dog]

Enjoyed the read, thx.  Couple of points came to mind for me:

 

I think Shakir will help the ST by quickly winning over the return duties.  

 

I think WR group as it stands right now is a little weaker than it was last year.  Most are the same and Crowder, I think, will be a slight improvement over the declining Beas.  And Davis will be in his third year another slight improvement.  But the Sanders void was not filled, currently I don't see a third outside WR.

[Alphadawg7]

10 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

"We don't have the best roster because we lack WR depth and Allen carries the team completely on his back.  If Allen, Diggs, Davis, McKenzie and Crowder get injured...we are in trouble because of Beane."

- ScottLaw

Ok this got me to literally laugh out loud, well done hahaha 🤣 

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Enjoyed the read, thx.  Couple of points came to mind for me:

 

I think Shakir will help the ST by quickly winning over the return duties.  

 

I think WR group as it stands right now is a little weaker than it was last year.  Most are the same and Crowder, I think, will be a slight improvement over the declining Beas.  And Davis will be in his third year another slight improvement.  But the Sanders void was not filled, currently I don't see a third outside WR.

Not to knock Sanders, but I think we were a better offense once Sanders got hurt and gave Davis the window to play more.  Beane even referenced how one mistake they made last year is not getting Davis involved more earlier in the season.  
 

Additionally, both Sanders and Beane have gushed about Davis and feel he is in line for a big season.  Sanders, despite playing with some truly elite WRs, went so far to say he is just built different and is a Pro Bowl level WR.  
 

So I actually think Davis today is better than what Sanders was last year.  Again, not a knock on Sanders, more a compliment to Davis.  
 

And I still think Crowder is being under estimated in terms of what he is capable of in this offense.

 

So I personally think the WR group is better this year compared to last.  

[H2o]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

• Brandon Beane - Just gonna say what I have been saying for a while now...he is one of the best, if not the the best, GM in the NFL.  I personally think he is the best GM in football and wouldn't swap him for anyone.  He is already getting that kind of praise around the league now too and it will get cemented when we take home a SB Title.  
  • Surprisingly some people still don't get this:  Beane is always a straight shooter...why some people try and speculate differently when he speaks is puzzling to me.  Listen to the man and its not hard to figure out what he is thinking.  
  • Love his accountability too like when he openly admitted to getting the Teller decision wrong and wished he gave him more time.  A mistake he said he wont make again...which is probably some insight to why Ford is still here despite a lot of people thinking they would trade or cut him by now.  I bet he wants to see what Kromer thinks of him and do with working with him.

You are going to make DCofNC

with your effuse praise of Beane

[The Dean]

Very nice writeup Alpha.

 

But when you talk about Devin, do you mean his brother Dalvin Cook?  Or are you referring to someone else? 

[Einstein's Dog]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Not to knock Sanders, but I think we were a better offense once Sanders got hurt and gave Davis the window to play more.  Beane even referenced how one mistake they made last year is not getting Davis involved more earlier in the season.  
 

Additionally, both Sanders and Beane have gushed about Davis and feel he is in line for a big season.  Sanders, despite playing with some truly elite WRs, went so far to say he is just built different and is a Pro Bowl level WR.  
 

So I actually think Davis today is better than what Sanders was last year.  Again, not a knock on Sanders, more a compliment to Davis.  
 

And I still think Crowder is being under estimated in terms of what he is capable of in this offense.

 

So I personally think the WR group is better this year compared to last.  

I agree with you, I like Davis as #2 and think he overtook Sanders by year end for the WR2 job.  My  concern is outside WR#3 which had been by years end Sanders.  Now if Davis goes down, it gets tricky.  I don't think Kumerow or the 5th rounder are the answer.

 

Maybe Crowder can slide over and have McKenzie in the slot (I kind of liked McK in the slot over Beas at the end of the year).

 

Maybe, they bring back Sanders for the backup, seems like he was saying all the right things - wouldn't cause waves taking the backup role.  But it seemed like Sanders was fading fast (kind of similar to J Brown's rapid slide).  

[Casey D]

3 minutes ago, The Dean said:

Very nice writeup Alpha.

 

But when you talk about Devin, do you mean his brother Dalvin Cook?  Or are you referring to someone else? 

Singletary I think

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree with you, I like Davis as #2 and think he overtook Sanders by year end for the WR2 job.  My  concern is outside WR#3 which had been by years end Sanders.  Now if Davis goes down, it gets tricky.  I don't think Kumerow or the 5th rounder are the answer.

 

Maybe Crowder can slide over and have McKenzie in the slot (I kind of liked McK in the slot over Beas at the end of the year).

 

Maybe, they bring back Sanders for the backup, seems like he was saying all the right things - wouldn't cause waves taking the backup role.  But it seemed like Sanders was fading fast (kind of similar to J Brown's rapid slide).  

I think Shakir is gonna surprise you once you see him on the field.  He is versatile and could help more than some think if there is an injury.

 

And yeah, I wouldn’t rule out Sanders being brought back if there was an injury and he wanted to play again.

8 minutes ago, The Dean said:

Very nice writeup Alpha.

 

But when you talk about Devin, do you mean his brother Dalvin Cook?  Or are you referring to someone else? 

Thanks, and I was talking about Devin Singletary