Joe Marino: Would Bills Start Season with 2nd and 3rd round rookies starting at CB? McBeane Did It Before.

[Thurman#1]

When I saw this, I thought it was a great question.

 

Comes from Joe Marino here:

 

 

It's at around 1:11:36.

 

He points out that in the 2015 season, the Panthers went 15-1 and lost the Super Bowl, and then in the offseason they declined to re-sign Josh Norman, and Peanut Tillman retired, their two starting CBs.

 

In response, they started two rookie draft picks, their 2nd (James Bradberry) and 3rd (Daryl Worley) rounders.

 

Joe doesn't mention the results, which were not very good, but I'm sure he's aware of it. McDermott and Beane are too.

 

And while the replacement CBs sure did not have a good year, they were far from the only reason this team got a lot worse the next year.

 

Interestingly, when I went back to quickly look at that team, I found that the 2016 Panthers went 2-6 in one-score games. That sounds a bit familiar, doesn't it? And the next year they went 11-5.

 

To me, it raises some interesting questions. We're in a better spot than they were, with Tre White coming back. Would they not bring in a mid-level FA CB, a Haven or Rhodes or that type? Would they be comfortable starting one rookie, a 2nd rounder maybe and having a 3rd rounder keep the seat warm for a few weeks for Tre if he's not read? Or the 2nd rounder and Dane Jackson till Tre gets back?

 

They did a mock at the same link with Olave and Parham in the first two rounds, without this thought in mind, just doing their best picks.

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Thurman#1

[Doc Brown]

I don't know how much influence Beane or McDermott had in that draft as Gettleman had final say.  Gettleman's stubbornness with Norman put them in that position.  Three of their top four picks were CB's though after Norman left.  They were 29th in pass defense that year so I'd like to think they learned their lesson on rolling the dice with rookies.  Bradberry and Worley were exactly what you'd expect out of starting rookies.  Inconsistent. 

 

My guess is they bring in a veteran and draft a rookie to compete for a spot opposite Dane Jackson if T. White isn't ready to go this September. 

[Thurman#1]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

I don't know how much influence Beane or McDermott had in that draft as Gettleman had final say.  Gettleman's stubbornness with Norman put them in that position.  Three of their top four picks were CB's though after Norman left.  They were 29th in pass defense that year so I'd like to think they learned their lesson on rolling the dice with rookies.  Bradberry and Worley were exactly what you'd expect out of starting rookies.  Inconsistent. 

 

My guess is they bring in a veteran and draft a rookie to compete for a spot opposite Dane Jackson if T. White isn't ready to go this September. 

 

 

Both great points, Doc.

 

But I do think it's an interesting question.

[GunnerBill]

Bradberry actually played quite well even as a rookie. Worley was never very good and was bouncing around somewhere as a practice squad player last I heard. If memory serves I think the Panthers had some turnover at safety as well that year. So they were basically making over the entire secondary. 

 

I think the slight quandry for the Bills this time around is that there is not an excess of 2nd round type corners. It is a bit of a dead spot in the corner class. There are the 7 guys I think can start and perform well early, all of whom I guess will be gone by #57. And then there is a good stack if developmental guys that I think belong in rounds 3 and 4. So it complicates the assessment a bit. I am getting to a place where I expect the Bills to go corner at #25 and then come back for a receiver in the 2nd. Not saying that is what I'd do. But that is where I am landing on predicting what they will do.

[Doc Brown]

11 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Both great points, Doc.

 

But I do think it's an interesting question.

It is.  They certainly could start a rookie given they have an experienced safety tandem and nickle corner to help along the way.  God help us if Cam Lewis or Siran Neal fills in until T. White gets back.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

We will all find out very soon what the plan is. 
 

Dane Jackson is definitely thought of very highly by the Bills staff. He didn’t have the best camp last year but as soon as he had to play he performed exactly how they thought he would. A rookie likely won’t start the season over Dane Jackson.

[machine gun kelly]

This is why I support trading up to a pt to get one of the top 6, and if you’re going to bundle picks, get the stud you really want.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

We will all find out very soon what the plan is. 
 

Dane Jackson is definitely thought of very highly by the Bills staff. He didn’t have the best camp last year but as soon as he had to play he performed exactly how they thought he would. A rookie likely won’t start the season over Dane Jackson.

 

One of the top rookies would in my view. If they got an Andrew Booth or a Kyler Gordon or even a McDuffie who I like less and I'm not sold that the Bills will see as a fit because of measurables then that player would start IMO. If they don't take one of those round 1 type guys and they end up with a developmental guy then I agree even if they have the potential to be better than Dane in time they are unlikely to be ready to displace him week 1. 

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

When I saw this, I thought it was a great question.

 

Comes from Joe Marino here:

 

 

It's at around 1:11:36.

 

He points out that in the 2015 season, the Panthers went 15-1 and lost the Super Bowl, and then in the offseason they declined to re-sign Josh Norman, and Peanut Tillman retired, their two starting CBs.

 

In response, they started two rookie draft picks, their 2nd (James Bradberry) and 3rd (Daryl Worley) rounders.

 

Joe doesn't mention the results, which were not very good, but I'm sure he's aware of it. McDermott and Beane are too.

 

And while the replacement CBs sure did not have a good year, they were far from the only reason this team got a lot worse the next year.

 

Interestingly, when I went back to quickly look at that team, I found that the 2016 Panthers went 2-6 in one-score games. That sounds a bit familiar, doesn't it? And the next year they went 11-5.

 

To me, it raises some interesting questions. We're in a better spot than they were, with Tre White coming back. Would they not bring in a mid-level FA CB, a Haven or Rhodes or that type? Would they be comfortable starting one rookie, a 2nd rounder maybe and having a 3rd rounder keep the seat warm for a few weeks for Tre if he's not read? Or the 2nd rounder and Dane Jackson till Tre gets back?

 

They did a mock at the same link with Olave and Parham in the first two rounds, without this thought in mind, just doing their best picks.

 

 

 

I don’t think so Thurmater.  Taron will play nickel as they want experience, Hyde and Poyer will direct the other guys.  Dane will get his shot, the rookie (I’m assuming two things).
 

1st, they are going to pick a rookie high as that is by far the biggest need and it will trump luxury picks like WR, G, and RB.

 

Second, Dane will play opposite the rook until Tre’s 100%.
 

My gut says as long as their is a guy they rate high enough on their board, they are picking CB.  A preponderance of mocks are picking some sort of DB.

[Simon Says]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

We will all find out very soon what the plan is. 
 

Dane Jackson is definitely thought of very highly by the Bills staff. He didn’t have the best camp last year but as soon as he had to play he performed exactly how they thought he would. A rookie likely won’t start the season over Dane Jackson.

Not even if it is a 1st round pick?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

8 minutes ago, Georgie said:

Not even if it is a 1st round pick?

Every year CBs drafted in the late 1st early 2nd do start immediately. I just figured they’d want more security.

[njbuff]

I think McDermott got pretty good results starting a rookie CB in 2017.

 

Just sayin.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Joe talked about this on LockedOn Bills last month. I could see the Bills doing something like this for a few reasons:

Bills have spent multiple picks at the same position in drafts before.

McD D doesn’t seem to overly value CB 2. Having said that, drafting a CB high now (1-3 rounds) that can turn into your CB 1 in a couple of years, could help with cap management. 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

What would we do with two high picks at corner? We have Tre White and Taron Johnson. One of those two picks would just be a backup his whole Bills career? If this were a Wink Martindale defense I might listen to a case for over-stocking that way but it's poor allocation for a zone defense where guys like Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson are functional starters, let alone backups.

[colin]

i think we get a corner in the 1st or 2nd (and maybe later in the draft if we like one) and him and dane start while trey recovers.  after trey recovers, it's trey and dane, until it's painfully obvious the rookie is better (which is what mcd always does, err on the side of the vet starting).

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

What would we do with two high picks at corner? We have Tre White and Taron Johnson. One of those two picks would just be a backup his whole Bills career? If this were a Wink Martindale defense I might listen to a case for over-stocking that way but it's poor allocation for a zone defense where guys like Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson are functional starters, let alone backups.

 

It is not a given that Taron is a Bill beyond 2022. 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is not a given that Taron is a Bill beyond 2022. 

There's no reason he can't be.

[gonzo1105]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I don’t think so Thurmater.  Taron will play nickel as they want experience, Hyde and Poyer will direct the other guys.  Dane will get his shot, the rookie (I’m assuming two things).
 

1st, they are going to pick a rookie high as that is by far the biggest need and it will trump luxury picks like WR, G, and RB.

 

Second, Dane will play opposite the rook until Tre’s 100%.
 

My gut says as long as their is a guy they rate high enough on their board, they are picking CB.  A preponderance of mocks are picking some sort of DB.

I wouldn’t even guarantee that the rookie starts game 1 opposite of Jackson. Siran Neal has played quite a bit at boundary corner and resigned him. I mean if they draft 1 round 1 of course he’s starting but a 3rd round CB I can see Neal being the guy for a bit 

[machine gun kelly]

Gonzo my comments were predacated on us finding one of the top 6 in the first.  If we wait til the 3rd I couldn’t agree more Neal would get the nod.

[RyanC883]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

One of the top rookies would in my view. If they got an Andrew Booth or a Kyler Gordon or even a McDuffie who I like less and I'm not sold that the Bills will see as a fit because of measurables then that player would start IMO. If they don't take one of those round 1 type guys and they end up with a developmental guy then I agree even if they have the potential to be better than Dane in time they are unlikely to be ready to displace him week 1. 

 

I haven’t watched Booth play, but the stat about him giving up about 50-59 or so percents of targets for completions is concerning?  Or is there more context to the stat I’m (likely) missing?