JaCrispy Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 #25 CB Andrew Booth Jr., Clemson #57 RB Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State 22 1 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Id love Walker in the 2nd but dont think he'll make it to our spot. 2 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Is he ever right? Unless you’re talking about predicting the top 5 or so draft picks, the “mock draft” phenomenon continues to astound me — and all of these guys’ records are putrid. It makes complete sense that teams run simulations internally to give themselves an idea of how a draft may shake out, but the mock drafts by media members and “insiders” crack me up. Carry on. 5 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaCrispy Posted April 11, 2022 Author Share Posted April 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, eball said: Is he ever right? Unless you’re talking about predicting the top 5 or so draft picks, the “mock draft” phenomenon continues to astound me — and all of these guys’ records are putrid. It makes complete sense that teams run simulations internally to give themselves an idea of how a draft may shake out, but the mock drafts by media members and “insiders” crack me up. Carry on. It’s just entertainment...😉 11 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 1 minute ago, JaCrispy said: It’s just entertainment...😉 Hey man, I know people love this stuff…it just amuses me. These guys are right approximately 4.5% of the time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, eball said: Hey man, I know people love this stuff…it just amuses me. These guys are right approximately 4.5% of the time. I mean Josh Norris (formerly of Rotoworld, now of some fantasy football site) had 16 exact matches in his final mock last year. That is a hell of a result. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donuts and Doritos Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 38 minutes ago, eball said: Hey man, I know people love this stuff…it just amuses me. These guys are right approximately 4.5% of the time. 86.2% of people who quote statistics are making them up. 😉 10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HOUSE Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 Wasn't he the guy who trashed the Josh Allen pick ? I think I will pass on his predictions 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlbillsfan1975 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 (edited) 12 minutes ago, HOUSE said: Wasn't he the guy who trashed the Josh Allen pick ? I think I will pass on his predictions I think maybe 1 out of 10 people in media liked the Allen pick initially. I am not a fan of McShay, just seems like ESPN tried to force him onto the scene to replace Kiper. Problem is, Kiper is better and more likable. That aside, I’d like this draft. Edited April 11, 2022 by atlbillsfan1975 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I mean Josh Norris (formerly of Rotoworld, now of some fantasy football site) had 16 exact matches in his final mock last year. That is a hell of a result. Even a blind squirrel occasionally stumbles upon a nut or two. That astounding result is still only 50%, and how many of those matches were after the top 10? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 1 hour ago, eball said: Is he ever right? Unless you’re talking about predicting the top 5 or so draft picks, the “mock draft” phenomenon continues to astound me — and all of these guys’ records are putrid. It makes complete sense that teams run simulations internally to give themselves an idea of how a draft may shake out, but the mock drafts by media members and “insiders” crack me up. Carry on. It is an exercise in futility, but humans like to go down that path with some frequency…, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, eball said: Even a blind squirrel occasionally stumbles upon a nut or two. That astounding result is still only 50%, and how many of those matches were after the top 10? Well even if it was only 6 outside the top 10 the level of varience in a draft makes that a pretty astounding effort. He also correctly predicted 28 of the 32 guys who went in the 1st. If you think mocks only have value if they get all 32 right ever likely you don't see value in them. Are mock drafts a bit of a cottage industry? Sure. But they have value. If done well they can demonstrate scenarios that might play out and get fans to really think about team building and the multi faceted job a GM has to do when drafting. Even if not done well they can be an entertaining appetiser for the draft itself. 3 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eball Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Well even if it was only 6 outside the top 10 the level of varience in a draft makes that a pretty astounding effort. He also correctly predicted 28 of the 32 guys who went in the 1st. If you think mocks only have value if they get all 32 right ever likely you don't see value in them. Are mock drafts a bit of a cottage industry? Sure. But they have value. If done well they can demonstrate scenarios that might play out and get fans to really think about team building and the multi faceted job a GM has to do when drafting. Even if not done well they can be an entertaining appetiser for the draft itself. You’re praising a guy for a success rate that is the equivalent of flipping a coin, and he was the best. There is literally no value in the mock draft “industry” aside from the NFL keeping content churning for fans who can’t get enough. Again, I get it — it’s just not for me. I’ll refrain from posting in any mock draft thread further. I simply saw the McShay thread title and reacted. Looking forward to the actual draft in 17 days and living in reality. 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsbackto81 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 57 minutes ago, HOUSE said: Wasn't he the guy who trashed the Josh Allen pick ? I think I will pass on his predictions Lots of people did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaninSarasota Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 60% of the time it works every time ..... 1 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarleyNY Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 2 hours ago, JaCrispy said: #25 CB Andrew Booth Jr., Clemson #57 RB Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State That is the best case scenario IMO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapeBreton Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 2 hours ago, eball said: Is he ever right? Unless you’re talking about predicting the top 5 or so draft picks, the “mock draft” phenomenon continues to astound me — and all of these guys’ records are putrid. It makes complete sense that teams run simulations internally to give themselves an idea of how a draft may shake out, but the mock drafts by media members and “insiders” crack me up. Carry on. is anyone ever right on these mock drafts? I’ve been going back and looking at old mocks and Ed Oliver was often connected to the Bills but that’s about it. Joe Buscaglia at The Athletic did have the Bills picking Greg Rousseau last year so I’m gonna keep an eye on his picks this year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slippery Rubber Mats Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 (edited) Guys it's not about being right. Like how would one ever be "right" anyhow? They are doing the draft they way they would do it, not the other humans that will do it. It's entertainment. Mock drafts rustle jimmies on message boards and I have no idea why LOL Edited April 11, 2022 by Tom Donahoe, GM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TC in St. Louis Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 I like both picks. I listen to the pod where he and Kiper get into it every week. They are both very knowledgeable but we all know that mock drafts are just for fun and they're part of it. I do think it's time for the Bills to get a stud RB so that Josh doesn't have to take all the 3rd and 4th down runs. Why risk injury? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OldTimer1960 Posted April 11, 2022 Share Posted April 11, 2022 2 hours ago, eball said: You’re praising a guy for a success rate that is the equivalent of flipping a coin, and he was the best. There is literally no value in the mock draft “industry” aside from the NFL keeping content churning for fans who can’t get enough. Again, I get it — it’s just not for me. I’ll refrain from posting in any mock draft thread further. I simply saw the McShay thread title and reacted. Looking forward to the actual draft in 17 days and living in reality. Not at all like flipping a coin. Flipping a coin 32 time and trying to predict the order of heads and tails would be closer, but easier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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