Pounding the table for Christian Watson at 25

[Virgil]

So, this thread intrigued me enough to watch some tape on him.  Great speed and size.  
 

I do wonder about his overall hands though.  He seems to let the ball come close to his body before making the catch. He doesn’t make a body catch, but it’s a strange medium between the two.  
 

Most of his highlights are big plays, which makes me wonder where he is for the rest of the time.  He only had 800 yards, which I feel like I saw most of them.  Does he disappear?  Is he into jet sweeps and deep balls?  

[Vickveto]

7 minutes ago, Virgil said:

So, this thread intrigued me enough to watch some tape on him.  Great speed and size.  
 

I do wonder about his overall hands though.  He seems to let the ball come close to his body before making the catch. He doesn’t make a body catch, but it’s a strange medium between the two.  
 

Most of his highlights are big plays, which makes me wonder where he is for the rest of the time.  He only had 800 yards, which I feel like I saw most of them.  Does he disappear?  Is he into jet sweeps and deep balls?  

North Dakota is very cold. 
Small school run first offense.

Quarterback only attended 150 passes over 3000 rushing yards for the team. Play action Hit your Deep Threat over the top. Sweeps and deep threat was his role. Separation and hand catching senior bowl week he ran all the routes in the route tree.

[longtimebillsfan]

2 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

There are a bunch of big target WRs with good hands and you chose a Gronk. It's odd. Don't take it so personal.

Your comment seemed to attempt to be argumentative without any point.

 

[Alphadawg7]

I am all for Watson, even in the first.  Ive been high on him all off season.  I was hoping he would be there in the 2nd for us, a while back, but now that feels like a pipe dream. If the Bills want him, its likely going to have to happen in the first or a trade up from our 2nd.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[Aussie Joe]

8 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Random but I can’t stand the draft season cliche phrases “pound the table”, “sprint to the podium”, etc…  only 24 more days!

Gotta tell ya..I was just thinking yesterday how much I hate the phrase  “sprint to the podium”…overused,  meaningless,  add nothing term…

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Interesting you say this, then say Dotson is more of a slot Wr type.  Isn't that an added bonus?  Watson ran very few routes from the slot, I don't think he's a fit there.  Which would essentially give us 2 strictly outside guys (Watson and Davis).  Forcing us to play Diggs in the slot, if we put Watson, Davis and Diggs in 3 wr sets.  Not sure how that adds value, then burns a 1st round pick.

 

Agree Watson is not a fit from the slot. We have two slot guys IMO - Crowder on a one year deal and McKenzie. We have nothing outside other than Diggs and Davis. If one of them goes down Jake Kumerow is on the football field. And we just don't have a definitive answer on Gabe. I am a fan but what if he can't handle a full time #2 workload. What then? 

 

I am not banging the table for Watson. I think there will likely be other options there at #25. But I can get myself to a position where based on the board that is a pick I would support.

 

Also when I grade players I don't just grade them as fits for the Bills. And generally speaking outside guys have more value than slots. 

[stinky finger]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I'll go back to me tryna' sell TSW on the Bills standing pat and drafting the best defensive player in the 2014 draft....... Aaron Donald........when the Bills already had a stacked DL.........they didn't "need" one right then..........but first round picks aren't necessarily about 1st year results.   Dude became the best defensive player of this century so far and is still playing at a superstar level.

 

And Gabe Davis doesn't have the All Pro track record of those Bills DL .......... he is a 500-something yard receiver the past 2 seasons.    

 

He is a projection who failed to beat out a tired Emmanuel Sanders,  struggled with a foot injury yet again,  had a terrible in-season game where he had like 3 catches on 13 targets and also had a costly drop in the Jags loss and missed the second NE game entirely because he wore too much tinfoil under his helmet.   

 

People are so fixated on the playoff game vs KC that they think the Bills have the best 1-2 combo in the league or something.    They don't.

Me thinks you underestimate  Mr. Davis.

 

That said, a WR in the 1st round suits me fine. Weapons for Josh is never a bad thing.

Edited April 5, 2022 by inaugural balls

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Virgil said:

So, this thread intrigued me enough to watch some tape on him.  Great speed and size.  
 

I do wonder about his overall hands though.  He seems to let the ball come close to his body before making the catch. He doesn’t make a body catch, but it’s a strange medium between the two.  
 

Most of his highlights are big plays, which makes me wonder where he is for the rest of the time.  He only had 800 yards, which I feel like I saw most of them.  Does he disappear?  Is he into jet sweeps and deep balls?  

 

He is a bit one dimensional, yes. But when that one dimension is separating and winning deep (and scoring touchdowns) it is worth having. It was put to me the other day that Alec Pierce might be the DK Metcalf in this class. I don't accept that. I think it is Christian Watson. I have the exact same grade on him I had on DK and for a lot of the same reasons. I don't think he runs a full route tree. I don't think he is polished as a route runner. He is one dimensional. He has more drops than you like to see. His college production doesn't wow you. But on the opposite side he wins deep at a remarkable rate and physically his ceiling is super high. So DK at least played a higher level of competition but I think Watson is a slightly better mover when not in a straight line than DK was coming out. He also is by all accounts an A1 person. Thinking purely about the Bills we know they value that.

[GreggTX]

Given our cap situation, we can't afford a luxury pick in round 1 when we have 3 massive holes in our starting lineup at RG, RT and outside CB. These moon-sized craters must now be addressed through the draft unless there's some salary cap magic up Beane's sleeve that I haven't heard of. I know these positions aren't as sexy as OL or CB, but we will pay a big price if we ignore this. With Diggs, Davis, Crowder and McKenzie we already have a solid WR corps. Depth would be nice on the perimeter though.

[H2o]

16 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Given our cap situation, we can't afford a luxury pick in round 1 when we have 3 massive holes in our starting lineup at RG, RT and outside CB. These moon-sized craters must now be addressed through the draft unless there's some salary cap magic up Beane's sleeve that I haven't heard of. I know these positions aren't as sexy as OL or CB, but we will pay a big price if we ignore this. With Diggs, Davis, Crowder and McKenzie we already have a solid WR corps. Depth would be nice on the perimeter though.

I wouldn't say we have any "moon-sized craters" on this team. We have Saffold and Bates at G and Spencer Brown at RT. Could we find an upgrade? Possibly, but hardly glaring needs. The #2 CB position, with the uncertainty surrounding Tre's recovery, is likely the biggest need we have remaining. I sure as heck am not for wasting a 1st on Watson though. The guy screams "Workout Warrior" and "Bust" to me. He couldn't even dominate at the FCS level with a top 5 QB in Trey Lance. He's not going to suddenly become a monster in the NFL, against competition that is FAR above what he's previously faced. There have been a bunch of athletes who haven't had their traits translate on the field, at every position. Jameson, Dotson, or Burks I wouldn't be mad. But if we toss a 1st on Christian Watson? That would be stupidity on the level of Whitner over Ngata and Maybin over Orakpo. 

Edited April 5, 2022 by H2o

[CSBill]

OK, I would be happy with this pick at 25. But I would be even happier to get him in a trade up in the second round.

[Einstein's Dog]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree Watson is not a fit from the slot. We have two slot guys IMO - Crowder on a one year deal and McKenzie. We have nothing outside other than Diggs and Davis. If one of them goes down Jake Kumerow is on the football field. And we just don't have a definitive answer on Gabe. I am a fan but what if he can't handle a full time #2 workload. What then? 

 

I am not banging the table for Watson. I think there will likely be other options there at #25. But I can get myself to a position where based on the board that is a pick I would support.

 

Also when I grade players I don't just grade them as fits for the Bills. And generally speaking outside guys have more value than slots. 

I was reading this hoping you weren't getting too sucked in to drafting for need.  Need is fluid with available FAs still out there.

 

One aspect of the WR discussion though on the point of slot WR, is that it appears to be the least costly of the WR group.  We filled it with FA's around $3M (McKenzie + Crowder).  It's the good outside WRs where the market is going nuts.  Rather draft the next Mike Williams than the next Beas.

 

I would rather go with a T Burks/C Watson/J Williams than Dotson.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

 

One aspect of the WR discussion though on the point of slot WR, is that it appears to be the least costly of the WR group.  We filled it with FA's around $3M (McKenzie + Crowder).  It's the good outside WRs where the market is going nuts.  Rather draft the next Mike Williams than the next Beas.

 

This is largely true. That said Christian Kirk is primarily a slot guy and got a huge deal. But I agree you can find a Beasley or a Crowder or a Kendrick Bourne pretty much every year in FA to be a functional slot on a cheap to mid tier deal. 

[Einstein's Dog]

4 hours ago, CSBill said:

OK, I would be happy with this pick at 25. But I would be even happier to get him in a trade up in the second round.

But then you would miss out on the 5th year option.  One benefit of the 1st round is the extra year. And if you hit on a WR the 5th year option becomes especially useful.  Not just for the 5th year, but as a bargaining tool to extend early and get the player locked down for more years before the contract expires.  At the 4th year you can negotiate an extension at the market rate throwing in some guaranteed money and it is an easy sell - ie Josh.  

 

If they hit on the raw physically gifted WR that develops with Dorsey/Josh into a top 5ish WR then you may wish you had the 5th year option for him.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, inaugural balls said:

Me thinks you underestimate  Mr. Davis.

 

That said, a WR in the 1st round suits me fine. Weapons for Josh is never a bad thing.

 

 

I don't underestimate Davis.........I judge him on his merit.........which is as a 500-600 yard type big play receiver.......albeit facing mostly 3rd-4th CB's in his first two seasons..........with notable bouts of inconsistency and nagging foot/ankle injuries.

 

Cinci has 3 young/prime age WR's who have already put up 1,000 yard plus seasons in their careers and combined for 3,400 last season.  LA Chargers have two proven 1,000 yard receivers in Allen/Williams.  Miami has 100 catch + 1,000 yard Jaylen Waddle and added the big producing Tyreek Hill.

 

So yeah, it's not an act of excess AT ALL for the Bills to be seeking a player to challenge the inconsistent and only modestly productive Gabe Davis and supplant 30 year old journeyman Jake Kumerow on the depth chart.    It's not a position of good depth for the Bills.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I don't underestimate Davis.........I judge him on his merit.........which is as a 500-600 yard type big play receiver.......albeit facing mostly 3rd-4th CB's in his first two seasons..........with notable bouts of inconsistency and nagging foot/ankle injuries.

 

Cinci has 3 young/prime age WR's who have already put up 1,000 yard plus seasons in their careers and combined for 3,400 last season.  LA Chargers have two proven 1,000 yard receivers in Allen/Williams.  Miami has 100 catch + 1,000 yard Jaylen Waddle and added the big producing Tyreek Hill.

 

So yeah, it's not an act of excess AT ALL for the Bills to be seeking a player to challenge the inconsistent and only modestly productive Gabe Davis and supplant 30 year old journeyman Jake Kumerow on the depth chart.    It's not a position of good depth for the Bills.

 

 

It's not just the foot/ankle injuries - though it's a good call to point out that despite being available for all 16 games in 2020 and all but one last season, Davis was hampered by ankle injuries at the end of last season and according to some members of the Buffalo media, for weeks at the start of this season.  (And it's an additional concern that we've signed a #2 TE with a concerning history of ankle injuries)

 

It's the "pipeline".  If we're going to be following the "Stars and Jags" model and Diggs is gonna be our star - Davis is entering his 3rd year.  If he has a breakout season, we have him for one more year then he's gonna want to "Get Paid". 

 

We need a steady pipeline of talent to develop at WR, even if Davis develops titanium ankles himself and is ready to break the ankles of #2 CB

[ProcessAccepted]

18 hours ago, Putin said:

Sorry not at 25 but I wouldn’t mind trading up in the second round for him if we take a CB in round one 

I'll be surprised if he's still on the board in the second round 

[CapeBreton]

Why draft Watson in round 1 when we can draft Alex Pierce in round 4? Watson definitely had a bit more juice than Pierce but he doesn’t seem worthy of pick 25.  

[Vickveto]

4 minutes ago, CapeBreton said:

Why draft Watson in round 1 when we can draft Alex Pierce in round 4? Watson definitely had a bit more juice than Pierce but he doesn’t seem worthy of pick 25.  

Alex Pierce is not making it out of the second round. Some talent evaluators think he is Jordy Nelson 2.0 he may not make it until 57. 

[glazeduck]

20 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

Alex Pierce is not making it out of the second round. Some talent evaluators think he is Jordy Nelson 2.0 he may not make it until 57. 

And neither will live up to their draft capital  🤣