The Jokeman Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 I need clarification on the new rule. I thought I heard that OT would be a continuation of the 4th quarter (see 1st quarter going into 2nd) aka no coin toss. So in the case of the Chiefs Bills playoff game since the Chiefs scored the FG as time expired they'd have to kickoff the ball to us at the start of OT. If we score than we kickoff to the Chiefs, if they score more they win if not we win or if they tie the next score wins. Which then adds a new element is instead of milking the clock for a FG to tie does a team tie it sooner forcing the other team to get the ball "first"as time expires. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, Maybe Someday said: You take the ball every time, try to score and put the pressure on the other team. Even if the other team scores I think they kick the XP to tie and keep the game going 99% of the time. I can’t see any team going for 2 in OT of a playoff game unless you don’t trust your kicker or your defense. I think some of you put too much into analytics in that situation. Definitely more than most NFL coaches do. The few coaches that did use analytics a lot didn’t make the playoffs. Every team in the league used analytics. Some more than others, but most used them at least a fair amount. And nearly all used it on accept/defer decisions. How many teams deferred when they won the coin toss at the beginning of games? 251:25. That's analytics. And a lot of the 25 were because of the wind. It'll be the same here, IMO. We'll see the ratio tip quite a bit to one side or the other. IMO it'll be to deferring. Oh, and as for teams that use analytics a lot not making the playoffs, take a look at these articles about how the Rams use analytics a lot. https://ramblinfan.com/2021/04/08/la-rams-data-analytics-continues-to-advance-each-year/ https://sporttechie.com/its-the-rams-and-bengals-in-the-super-bowl-and-may-the-best-data-science-win https://www.pacific.edu/pacific-newsroom/alumnas-work-analytics-helps-rams-win-super-bowl#:~:text=Bailey serves as manager of,and game preparation and strategy. https://ramblinfan.com/2021/04/11/la-rams-statistician-sarah-bailey-views-data-analytics/ And I may be wrong, but I seem to remember the Rams making the playoffs last year. Edited March 30, 2022 by Thurman#1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Someday Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Every team in the league used analytics. Some more than others, but most used them at least a fair amount. And nearly all used it on accept/defer decisions. How many teams deferred when they won the coin toss at the beginning of games? 251:25. That's analytics. And a lot of the 25 were because of the wind. It'll be the same here, IMO. We'll see the ratio tip quite a bit to one side or the other. IMO it'll be to deferring. Oh, and as for teams that use analytics a lot not making the playoffs, take a look at these articles about how the Rams use analytics a lot. https://ramblinfan.com/2021/04/08/la-rams-data-analytics-continues-to-advance-each-year/ https://sporttechie.com/its-the-rams-and-bengals-in-the-super-bowl-and-may-the-best-data-science-win https://www.pacific.edu/pacific-newsroom/alumnas-work-analytics-helps-rams-win-super-bowl#:~:text=Bailey serves as manager of,and game preparation and strategy. https://ramblinfan.com/2021/04/11/la-rams-statistician-sarah-bailey-views-data-analytics/ And I may be wrong, but I seem to remember the Rams making the playoffs last year. LOL. Deferring the opening coin toss is completely different than deferring the OT coin toss. I would defer to start the game every time but never to finish the game. I also wasn’t saying teams don’t use analytics at all, I was referring to those similar situations - going for 2 and even going on 4th down when it’s against conventional thinking. The Chargers should have been a playoff team but their coach’s reliance on analytics cost them a few games. Your article also doesn’t mention any game scenarios that analytics were used. Edited March 30, 2022 by Maybe Someday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCOrange Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 (edited) Honestly curious to see what the analytics end up suggesting here, both in terms of taking the ball vs. deferring and also whether or not to go for 2 if you defer and have to match a touchdown and extra point. My initial feeling was that I'd want the ball because I'd rather be the team that starts with it when it gets to sudden death. But I definitely see the logic in deferring since by starting with the ball, you don't know if 3 points or even 7 points is enough to win the game or at least get you to the sudden death. Edit: catching up now and it looks like the analytics suggest deferring is the better choice as people assume the 2nd team will not be willing to settle for tying the game and therefore, the 3rd possession won’t come into play very often. Edited March 30, 2022 by DCOrange Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 17 hours ago, MJS said: You take the ball. It's not even a debate. Of course this is 100 percent wrong. The deferring team gets 4 downs to get a first if the other team has scored. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Red King Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Another thing to consider... Team 1 gets the ball, drives for a TD and kicks the extra point. Team 2 then gets the ball and gets a TD. Do they now go for two (with slightly less then a 50% success rate), or do they kick the extra point? The odds are slightly against you if you go for two, but kicking the extra point now puts you in sudden death with the other team now having a crack at ending it before you do. The more I think on it, the more I see advantages both ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ramza86 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Defer is now the optimal. You find out what you have to match. Which gives you 4 down advantage throughout the whole drive. More chances to get a first down = higher success rate. The receiver cannot play 4 downs the entire drive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkep32 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 19 minutes ago, The Red King said: Another thing to consider... Team 1 gets the ball, drives for a TD and kicks the extra point. Team 2 then gets the ball and gets a TD. Do they now go for two (with slightly less then a 50% success rate), or do they kick the extra point? The odds are slightly against you if you go for two, but kicking the extra point now puts you in sudden death with the other team now having a crack at ending it before you do. The more I think on it, the more I see advantages both ways. Not sure what rules are after said tie in OT. Does it go back to a coinflip or does it go back to the team who had first possession. In that case if it falls back to first team you would never defer in OT in the playoffs. If you are worried about 2nd possession team going down and getting a td and 2pt conversion then go for 2pt conversion yourself(if successful), that would guarantee you the ball back if they go down and tie as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbitmic Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 If I have Josh Allen I take the ball every time. Score a TD and put pressure on your opponent to match you. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 hour ago, TH3 said: Of course this is 100 percent wrong. The deferring team gets 4 downs to get a first if the other team has scored. And then subsequently lose on the next possession from a field goal in sudden death. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billykay Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 hour ago, MJS said: And then subsequently lose on the next possession from a field goal in sudden death. What do you do ? You receive and move down to the 35. It's 4th and 10. Do you go for it or do you try a 52 yard FG ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 5 hours ago, MJS said: And then subsequently lose on the next possession from a field goal in sudden death. Wut? You should ALWAYS defer...if you have any game logic in you....if you want to grunt and say "give me ball"...can't argue with that.... The best thing that can happen if you defer is you stop the team and they punt... The worst is the opposing team scores...in that case on the ensuing possession you get FOUR downs to play on each first down...as you have nothing to lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 44 minutes ago, TH3 said: Wut? You should ALWAYS defer...if you have any game logic in you....if you want to grunt and say "give me ball"...can't argue with that.... The best thing that can happen if you defer is you stop the team and they punt... The worst is the opposing team scores...in that case on the ensuing possession you get FOUR downs to play on each first down...as you have nothing to lose And then you drive down and score to tie it up, then give the ball back to the other team to go win it. That's the problem. The 3rd possession is the possession where you can win it. I know people are bringing up 2 point conversions, but those are low percentage plays. Get the ball first. Go score. The other team gets it. Stop them from scoring, or even if they do score, you have the next possession to go win the game. If you want to bring 2 point conversions into it, fine, but it is just as easy for the first team to try it as the 2nd team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 hour ago, TH3 said: Wut? You should ALWAYS defer...if you have any game logic in you....if you want to grunt and say "give me ball"...can't argue with that.... The best thing that can happen if you defer is you stop the team and they punt... The worst is the opposing team scores...in that case on the ensuing possession you get FOUR downs to play on each first down...as you have nothing to lose What happens when the FIRST TEAM has a drive of 8 minutes or longer? Do you really want to rely on a 2 Minute drive? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Process Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turftoe Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 Josh can’t call tails every time. That was the problem with our overtime loss to KC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 @Gunner @Gugny ever heard of a 10 minute drive? how long is OT? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maybe Someday Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: What happens when the FIRST TEAM has a drive of 8 minutes or longer? Do you really want to rely on a 2 Minute drive? 5 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: @Gunner @Gugny ever heard of a 10 minute drive? how long is OT? My understanding is they treat it just like regular 15 min quarters. Team 1 uses 10 mins, if team still 2 still has ball after 5 mins, they switch sides and keep going. Just like they would from 1st to 2nd quarter. After that, it’s just like old school sudden death - they keep playing 15 min quarters until someone scores. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machine gun kelly Posted March 30, 2022 Share Posted March 30, 2022 I’d take the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted March 30, 2022 Author Share Posted March 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maybe Someday said: My understanding is they treat it just like regular 15 min quarters. Team 1 uses 10 mins, if team still 2 still has ball after 5 mins, they switch sides and keep going. Just like they would from 1st to 2nd quarter. After that, it’s just like old school sudden death - they keep playing 15 min quarters until someone scores. until proven I’ll assume 10 minutes IMO not worth the risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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