Who do you think Bills pick first in the draft and why do you think that player?

[BuffaloRebound]

I’d love an interior OL with 1st round pick, but it’s probably gotta be a CB.  They would’ve signed Levi to $4m per year if they weren’t looking to upgrade.  And the CB’s with speed who can play are usually gone by pick 57.  

[BillsSbSoon]

2 hours ago, Greg S said:

Beane addressed the LOS in FA. He upgraded the pass rush with Von so it will most likely be CB in Rd 1. Who will be there when the Bills pick I have no idea. With Tre probably not back until Nov and Wallace gone I would be shocked if the best CB available isn't the pick.

Thats what im thinking too unless we sign a corner in Fa still. Corner is a bigger issue than wr right now. But beane is going to go bpa regardless, and they may be higher on dane jackson than we think too

[Greg S]

2 minutes ago, BillsSbSoon said:

Thats what im thinking too unless we sign a corner in Fa still. Corner is a bigger issue than wr right now. But beane is going to go bpa regardless, and they may be higher on dane jackson than we think too

I think we are done in FA at least as far as signing any top FA's still out there. Beane admitted they don't have a lot of room left with the Cap. I think he will focus on the draft now at this point.

[Floydboy12]

Would be happy with McDuffie. Would be ecstatic with Olave. Think he would be perfect with Diggs and Davis.  I’m honestly good with riding with Dane Jackson for a year or two and developing a corner. The Woolen kid from UTSA would be nice in round 2-4. But I would also be good with McDuffie in Rd 1 and Wandale Robinson in rd 2 or 3. 

[Rockinon]

Beane has said protecting Josh is a priority. Not sure how much he is willing to invest there. So far, we have 2 OLmen from FA. Gotta get CB and WR help simply because of the number of players lost. Wonder if one of our WRs decides he doesn't want to retire since he would have a legit chance at a Superbowl ring? We do need RB too. Everyone who says best player available is crazy if they think that decision isn't influence by need. CB makes the most sense to me. Perhaps a trade down. I believe there are quality WRs later on. Someone was saying that trading down and acquiring more picks would actually lower the cap. All I know is, Beane has surprised me every single draft. This is a guy that knows how to think outside of the box. Have no idea what he is going to do next. I think CB, WR do the most to help the team in the 1st round, but WR is deep. OK, now I'm rambling... Gotta be CB, right?

[OldTimer1960]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think him because he is a much better corner in man than in zone and the Bills are still going to be a zone heavy scheme. 

 

I think you might have right position, wrong player.

What makes McCreary suited for man coverage, but not so in zones?  I would think it would take a better overall athlete to play man.  It seems in zone, you can hide some athletic limitations.  I’m really asking whether it is reasonable to think that a good man coverage corner could learn to play zone well, but not necessarily the other way around?

[Rico]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Olave is the best route runner and separator in the class and it isn't close IMO. 

No one more clutch. I like clutch players.

[NewEra]

20 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What makes McCreary suited for man coverage, but not so in zones?  I would think it would take a better overall athlete to play man.  It seems in zone, you can hide some athletic limitations.  I’m really asking whether it is reasonable to think that a good man coverage corner could learn to play zone well, but not necessarily the other way around?

Mcreary is a good athlete and he sticks pretty well with WRs in man.  Zone corners are generally long limbed.  Mccreary has super short T-rex arms.  

[SoMAn]

WR Chris Olave or Trent McDuffie, CB

 

Although I believe either of those players are real possibilities to be picked by Buffalo, I predict the Bills trade out of the first round. 

 

With all the money they've already allocated to FAs, I wouldn't  be surprised for the Bills to find a trade partner who will take # 25 in exchange for their 2nd round and additional picks - maybe a 3rd or 4th, and/or picks in 2023.

 

Wouldn't mind seeing them have 2 picks in both second and third rounds. Apart from the QB position, there's a lot of depth at other need positions. Depending on the slot of the trade partner, and without hesitation, I'd trade # 25 for an additional 2nd and 3rd .

 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by SoMAn
more thought put into it

[Einstein's Dog]

WR Treylon Burks:

 

1.  Will be one of the last tier 1 WRs left (J Williams/London/Olave/Wilson), won't get this level with second pick

2.  Great fit - he's like a power forward of the WRs 6'3" 225 and fast.  Helps bring some physicality to our finesse team.  Known for YAC.

3.  By going 1st round offense it helps even out the offseason emphasis previously on defense.  

4.  WR's are very expensive, he takes over Sanders/Beas expense.  Great w progressive finances - Diggs now, Davis yr or two, Burks 4-5

5.  We will get another FA CB.  We're just waiting for the dust to settle and get a bargain.  We make no-names look good.  Made L Wallace into $4M man.  Get a $3M vet CB and a round 2 CB and make do until Tre comes back.

[GunnerBill]

44 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What makes McCreary suited for man coverage, but not so in zones?  I would think it would take a better overall athlete to play man.  It seems in zone, you can hide some athletic limitations.  I’m really asking whether it is reasonable to think that a good man coverage corner could learn to play zone well, but not necessarily the other way around?

 

It is definitely harder in man to cover up physical limitations. So generally, yes a more talented athlete is normally required for a heavy man scheme than a heavy zone scheme. But people often presume that means any good man corner can just adjust to zone and it doesn't always work that way. Physically you generally need to be a good, fuild lateral mover to play zone but then you also need to be really smart. Play recognition skills, instincts, communication skills are all big for zone corners. But the biggest thing is discipline. The thing you notice with man corners who struggle in zone (and it is there on McCreary's tape) is they get a bit lost covering space and they lose their discipline and want to go and engage an opponent. 

 

As for can you teach it, a lot of it you can, but I think the discipline bit is really hard to change. That often just comes naturally. Asumogah is the classic text book go to for "man corner who has struggled in zone" when he moved from Oakland to the Eagles on a huge deal, but a more recent draft example might be Adoree Jackson who despite lacking ideal length had the speed and physicality to come in as a 1st round pick able to play man. But when the Titans used him in a heavy zone scheme he flamed out quickly.

[Brandon]

After loading up the defensive line in free agency,  I expect them to draft heavily to the offensive side next month.  That upgraded pass rush should take some pressure off the DBs.  They might still go CB at 25,  but if White's recovery is coming along well,  it wouldn't surprise me if they wait to take a developmental CB in the mid rounds. 

 

Ultimately, they're going to win or lose based on Allen and the offense.  They've stated priorities to protect Allen and improve their speed,  but they've done very little of that in comparison to their defensive investment this off-season.  The coordinators are also a consideration,  and I would expect Frazier to have an easier time hiding a weakness on defense than Dorsey can as a first year offensive coordinator.  I expect them to take a WR or OL in R1,  with an outside chance of a RB if they really like one of them and feel they can help in the passing game.   My guess is the same as it was a few weeks back...Jahan Dotson. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Brandon said:

My guess is the same as it was a few weeks back...Jahan Dotson. 

 

The Beasley move definitely opens a spot for Dodson. That said you still have a hard time selling me on him as a value at #25. 

[OldTimer1960]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is definitely harder in man to cover up physical limitations. So generally, yes a more talented athlete is normally required for a heavy man scheme than a heavy zone scheme. But people often presume that means any good man corner can just adjust to zone and it doesn't always work that way. Physically you generally need to be a good, fuild lateral mover to play zone but then you also need to be really smart. Play recognition skills, instincts, communication skills are all big for zone corners. But the biggest thing is discipline. The thing you notice with man corners who struggle in zone (and it is there on McCreary's tape) is they get a bit lost covering space and they lose their discipline and want to go and engage an opponent. 

 

As for can you teach it, a lot of it you can, but I think the discipline bit is really hard to change. That often just comes naturally. Asumogah is the classic text book go to for "man corner who has struggled in zone" when he moved from Oakland to the Eagles on a huge deal, but a more recent draft example might be Adoree Jackson who despite lacking ideal length had the speed and physicality to come in as a 1st round pick able to play man. But when the Titans used him in a heavy zone scheme he flamed out quickly.

Outstanding response, thank you very much!

[GunnerBill]

55 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Mcreary is a good athlete and he sticks pretty well with WRs in man.  Zone corners are generally long limbed.  Mccreary has super short T-rex arms.  

 

And my Adoree Jackson example above - he shares the T-rex arms attribute with McCreary. 

[junior]

My guess: a WR, CB, or OL who tests insanely well athletically in some capacity. Whether that's size, speed, or agility. 

 

Beane 1st Rounder RAS Scores:

• Josh Allen: 9.67
• Tremaine Edmunds: 9.74
• Ed Oliver: 9.87
• Greg Rousseau: 7.70 

 

Rousseau is the lone outlier of course, but he still scored in the top 25% of DEs since 1987.

 

Given the team's commitment to improving the defense over the last few offseasons, I think we'll take an offensive player, meaning G or WR, and with WRs being quite a bit costlier than guards, and us right up against the cap for the foreseeable future, I think Beane will want to get a premier player on a cost-controlled contract. In other words, a WR.

 

Projected 1st-2nd round receivers (no specific order):

• Jameson Williams
  • 6'1", 179lbs.
  • RAS: n/a
• Chris Olave
  • 6'0", 187lbs.
  • RAS:
• Jahan Dotson
  • 5'11", 178lbs
  • RAS:
• Garrett Wilson
  • 6'0", 183lbs.
  • RAS: 
• Drake London
  • 6'4", 219lbs.
  • RAS: 
• Treylon Burks
  • 6'2", 225lbs.
  • RAS: 8.91
• Christian Watson
  • 6'4", 208lbs.
  • RAS: 9.98
• George Pickens
  • 6'3", 195lbs.
  • RAS:

 

I have to look around more to find/compute the missing scores, but I think it'll be one of the above players.

 

On a related note, it's worth mentioning that Zion Johnson scored 9.95 RAS, ranking him 58 out of 1,406 guards since 1987. 

 

 

[NewEra]

Watson with the 9.98 dam!!

[Brandon]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Beasley move definitely opens a spot for Dodson. That said you still have a hard time selling me on him as a value at #25. 

 

It may be a bit early,  I agree.  If he's their guy and they can trade down for him,  all the better. 

[Allen2Moulds]

I think the Bills will be aggressive this year, and will trade up to grab the corner they covet. I personally wouldn't mind using next years 1st, to land a guy like Sauce Gardner.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I think the Bills will be aggressive this year, and will trade up to grab the corner they covet. I personally wouldn't mind using next years 1st, to land a guy like Sauce Gardner.

Counter argument is no cap space likely next year to fill holes, so it would hurt to not have their 1st next year.