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Matt Araiza and the Draft


KingBoots8

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I've seen several multi-round mock drafts projecting Araiza to the Bills, anywhere from round 5 to 7.ย  I also saw a mock with Buffalo picking the second ranked punter prospect, though Araiza is the one with the freakish leg strength.ย  I'd be very comfortable with Araiza in the 5th, less so in the 4th.ย  There are some potential advantages, but also a risk.ย  Sometimes punters outkick their coverage, leading to huge returns.ย  Hopefully, he has the accuracy to put a punt out of bounds without sacrificing a lot of the punt's length for times when a big return could be especially costly.ย ย 

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I get that their are other punters in the draft, but this regime has been pretty adamant about their preference of a lefty. They went after Bojo, Dustin Colquitt, Michael Palardy, and of course Haack. McDermott preaches field position and flipping the field etc. Araiza seems like exactly what they would want.ย 

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I get that we don't punt a whole lot, but when we do typically all hell breaks loose. I think this guy makes too much sense. The issue is that there are a few teams with a lot of draft picks in first few rounds and someone will take him early. ย 

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Iโ€™m not sure that Araiza is the generational punter that it might seem.ย 
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go to the football database.ย 
https://www.footballdb.com/college-football/stats/stats.html?mode=U&yr=2021&lg=FBS&sort=puntnet

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sort by NET punting. Araiza is 8th. Note also that his return yds are much worse than any of the top 10.ย 
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Finally, note that 3 punters stand out for most punts inside the 20. Of these 3 punters, Stout has the highest percent of punts inside the 30.ย 

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2 hours ago, Rigotz said:

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My counter-point is that punt length isn't the only trait you're looking for in great punters.

Both Haack and Bojo were terrible at "coffin corner" punting.

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When you pin an offense inside their 1-3 yard line, that's usually an immediate stop and good field position for your team.

It's way more important than the net 4 yards you mentioned. Bojo and Haack would almost always sail it into the end zone.

The funny part is that was supposed to be Haackโ€™s specialty. ย  Overall, he just had a terrible year, I donโ€™t know if it was just a down year or if he sucks in general.

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22 hours ago, KingBoots8 said:

So, we obviously have a few needs to address like lost teams in the draft. With where we are picking, itโ€™ll likely be the 3rd or 4th best player in their respective position in Round 1. We have a few players on Defense who were early picks and have been rotational in our system, which I am fine with as they get acclimated to the NFL.

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That being said, Punter is a definite need for this team. Haack certainly had some ugly punts this year, and while I donโ€™t think we will or should address punter in round 1, it does beg the question on where we could potentially select him.

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This isnโ€™t just some kid with a decent leg- heโ€™s the holder of multiple NCAA record and has an average of over 50 yards per punt. Heโ€™s a legitimate generational talent at his position, and could significantly help the special teams in pinning back our opponents.ย 
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If we were to go for him, what round do you feel comfortable taking him, and so you think he will last that long?

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Iโ€™d be totally fine in round 4 if he lasts that long, or moving a few late rounders to get back into the end of round 3

Where was Ray guy drafted? Or Jankowski? Because they were raiders does it not count? IDK? I donโ€™t think weโ€™re dying to have the best punter with Josh being our QB, but I would like to upgrade.

Somehow, we need to keep the offense as good as it is now or even better. To me, that means at least seven viable weapons and good line. Last year, even with Bates, we maybe were closer to decent than actually good. Iโ€™d love to upgrade the OL.

And far as defense goes, it is no where near the best defense in the league. We need to upgrade that DL a lot, imho. That means the premium picks go to the defense unless the BPA is clearly an O player when we make those picks.

so, IDK? Itโ€™s not a very good question. It largely would be decided by who is there on board when you make that pick in the round. It sounds like he might be a great pick in the sixth, but really, you have to go by your board. McBeane has been able to get pretty good secondary players late in the draft or even after it.

It would feel good to have a guy that makes plays from that punter position thoughโ€ฆPlus a guy you can trust to not screw it up.

IDK? I donโ€™t feel great about our chances of improving the defense today and thatโ€™s just sadโ€ฆ.

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22 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

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Buffalo selecting non-football player TJ Graham 69th overall and Jacksonville selecting punter Bryan Anger 70th...........with Russell Wilson still on the board(he went 75th).........might be the dumbest consecutive draft picks in NFL history.

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Agreed.

That said, (although not consecutive) Whitner/McCargo/Youboty/Simpson in 2006 are the worst 4 in a row I have ever seen, and Levy actually traded up to get these losers.

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On 3/2/2022 at 7:01 PM, KingBoots8 said:

So, we obviously have a few needs to address like lost teams in the draft. With where we are picking, itโ€™ll likely be the 3rd or 4th best player in their respective position in Round 1. We have a few players on Defense who were early picks and have been rotational in our system, which I am fine with as they get acclimated to the NFL.

ย 

That being said, Punter is a definite need for this team. Haack certainly had some ugly punts this year, and while I donโ€™t think we will or should address punter in round 1, it does beg the question on where we could potentially select him.

ย 

This isnโ€™t just some kid with a decent leg- heโ€™s the holder of multiple NCAA record and has an average of over 50 yards per punt. Heโ€™s a legitimate generational talent at his position, and could significantly help the special teams in pinning back our opponents.ย 
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If we were to go for him, what round do you feel comfortable taking him, and so you think he will last that long?

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Iโ€™d be totally fine in round 4 if he lasts that long, or moving a few late rounders to get back into the end of round 3

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Id prefer the 5th but i could live with a 4rth. I dont believe in drafting punters but this kid is a special talent and could win us games because of how far he can kick the ball, he is basically making the opposing offense go an extra 10-20 yards every drive, which really adds up over the course of a game.

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23 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

Iโ€™m not sure that Araiza is the generational punter that it might seem.ย 
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go to the football database.ย 
https://www.footballdb.com/college-football/stats/stats.html?mode=U&yr=2021&lg=FBS&sort=puntnet

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sort by NET punting. Araiza is 8th. Note also that his return yds are much worse than any of the top 10.ย 
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Finally, note that 3 punters stand out for most punts inside the 20. Of these 3 punters, Stout has the highest percent of punts inside the 30.ย 

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The absolute worse thing you can do as a punter is out kick your coverage. That is worse that shanking it out 20 yards from where you punt because outkicking your coverage is where big, dangerous, potentially game altering returns come from.ย 

1 hour ago, ElMarko said:

If you draft a punter that stays with the team for 10-12 years - who cares if it's a 3rd rounder or 4th rounder? Who was the Bills' 4th round pick in 2013?

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I think it was the first Duke Williams. The safety.ย 

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Ran 4.68 40 and covers his own punts with enthusiasm.ย  Probably needs to develop a variety of alternate kick skills but I'd be OK with the Bills drafting an elite leg with plus athletic ability.ย  There may still be an obvious roster spot for him come draft time and Anderson and Wildgoose are examples of what happens to talent that has no place on the roster.ย  ย Might be a chance he could be a big upgrade ala T Bass.

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PFF takes a look at a punters' value.

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