Marlin's Mock

[Don Otreply]

20 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

We definitely need better offensive linemen, but it does not matter where they are drafted. Unless you are getting a slam dunk elite player, like Ronnie Stanley, Trent Williams, Quentin Nelson, Brandon Scherff, can’t miss guys, there are so many terrible linemen who are just totally over-drafted. The Andre Dillards, Mike Williams of old, guys who had flaws in their games but fit a need. That is bad drafting imo. 
 

Look at free agency this year. UDFAs like Andrew Norwell are out there. Heck Laken Tomlinson and Austin Corbett are former failed high picks who were acquired for peanuts and found their game, just like Wyatt Teller. The Eagles spent a first round pick on a terrible Andre Dillard, and their starting left tackle, who is turning into one of the best in the league, is a former rugby player drafted in the seventh round. Just find good players who fit what you want to accomplish.  I also think it is important to consider RAS and draft elite, projectable athletes, guys like Spencer Brown (3rd) and Tommy Doyle(5th), Ryan Bates (UDFA traded for Eli Harold.) 

I do agree that we’re you get them, draft round or FA is as important as getting the right ones, as long as it happens I’ll be good, 👍

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Another year of waiting till the third to take offense. No thanks. 

Well I mean our biggest holes and question marks are mostly on defense this off-season.  
 

Also…What part of our offense do you think was the issue in the playoffs?  I mean Josh threw 9 TDs in 2 games didn’t he?  Pretty sure our season ended because our defense gave up 2 TDs and a FG in like 3 minutes to end that KC game.  

And don’t forget we used our first on Diggs.  So we waited until the third just one time to address offense, and that was last year.  Not like it’s been every year.   

 

[Mango]

3 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Another year of waiting till the third to take offense. No thanks. 

The issue isn’t that we “waited”. It’s that the first two picks haven’t been remarkable in year 1,2, or sometimes 3.

 

Pick who ever wherever. The problem isn’t that we’ve been heavy on defense. It’s that we’ve been heavy on defense and those guys have just been “OK-ish”. Then they spend MORE resources because there hasn’t been enough impact. 
 

It isn’t the side of the ball, it’s the players they’ve picked in the top 100.

[Beerball]

4 hours ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

We had and have plenty of offense to win.  D kept us out of the dance.  And we get lots of offense help in this mock - read up on Tyler Smith, Haskins is a horse, read up on Philips - Beasley reprised.  Lots of help for an offense that doesn't need lots of help in this draft.

Wrong.

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

I have run the draft simulator on PFF about 100 times.  Sad, I know.  So I have concluded we should trade down.  Of course, I Trust the Process and Beane is a wizard.  So doing my best Beane, here is a shot at a mock that I liked - thoughts?  Tyler Smith is listed at tackle, but he is a guard for us in this mock, projected to slide inside:

 

Round 1:  Trade down, we get 35 and 67 from Houston for 25 and 127

Round 2 (Pick 35); Kyler Gordon, CB, Wash;

Round 2 (Pick 57); Travis Jones, DL, Conn;

Round 3 (Pick 67); Tyler Smith, G/T, Tulsa

Round 3 (Pick 89); Boye Mafe, Edge, Minn

Round 5 (Pick 166) Hassan Haskins, RB, Mich

Round 6 (Pick 184) Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA

Round 6 (Pick 202) Kyle Philips, WR, UCLA

Round 7 (Pick 242) Matt Ariaza, P, San Diego State

 

I liked this about the best of all the mocks I ran.  Fire away!

 

Agree, disagree, or indifferent, thanks for doing this.

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Special K said:

 

I really want the Bills to draft this guy, but I promise you he will not last to the sixth round.....if the Bills want him they will likely have to take him with their 4th rounder, IMO.

So true, if you want Phillip's you better do it in the 4th. He'd be a very good slot wr. Because of Tre being out to start the season we'll probably be forced to go CB early.  Like Travis Jones at 57.

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Also, that punter is not going in the seventh round. I think he goes in the 4th. I know that sounds crazy, but there are a bunch of bad teams with a lot of early picks who will take a flyer early on a guy who punts 80 yards. 

Yup, if you want Ariaza you also better do it in the 4th.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

It seems like every year we are certain what round players will be selected in.  It also seems like every year after the draft that we talk about all of the players that fell and all of the players taken earlier that were a reach.  This leads me to conclude that most of the so called draft experts know very much less about these players than most of the teams do.  In addition, the fact that a significant number of undrafted free agents make it in the league, tells me that teams are not infallible either.  The entire draft process is a crap shoot and those of us who preach our point of view with a high degree of certainty are probably only really telling us what they hope will happen.  At times it gets rather tedious. 

[First Round Bust]

6 hours ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

I have run the draft simulator on PFF about 100 times.  Sad, I know.  So I have concluded we should trade down.  Of course, I Trust the Process and Beane is a wizard.  So doing my best Beane, here is a shot at a mock that I liked - thoughts?  Tyler Smith is listed at tackle, but he is a guard for us in this mock, projected to slide inside:

 

Round 1:  Trade down, we get 35 and 67 from Houston for 25 and 127

Round 2 (Pick 35); Kyler Gordon, CB, Wash;

Round 2 (Pick 57); Travis Jones, DL, Conn;

Round 3 (Pick 67); Tyler Smith, G/T, Tulsa

Round 3 (Pick 89); Boye Mafe, Edge, Minn

Round 5 (Pick 166) Hassan Haskins, RB, Mich

Round 6 (Pick 184) Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA

Round 6 (Pick 202) Kyle Philips, WR, UCLA

Round 7 (Pick 242) Matt Ariaza, P, San Diego State

 

I liked this about the best of all the mocks I ran.  Fire away!

I do like the trade idea, but I like a WR in round 1 more and its a deep CB draft so trade up in the second round for a CB...I do like the variety of your picks but am stoked about the P...Ariaza is the best come out in a long time... holds the NCAA's record for most 50 yard punts and 60 yard punts,. ... And it isn't because he hits it low, as Araiza's punting average was the best in college football at 51.19 net yards, per NCAA.com.Jan 12, 2022...rumored to go in rounds 3-6 which is high but likely worth it...and I love Tarvis Jones at DT as he does press the pcoket...dont see us making 9 picks...thats too many to make our roster plus 2 got snatched from the PS last season as well.

[Putin]

8 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Load up on offense… tired of this regime ignoring it every draft while making Josh do all the work. 

We have rounds 5 through 7 for that 

[Jay_Fixit]

None of this will happen.

[whorlnut]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Well I mean our biggest holes and question marks are mostly on defense this off-season.  
 

Also…What part of our offense do you think was the issue in the playoffs?  I mean Josh threw 9 TDs in 2 games didn’t he?  Pretty sure our season ended because our defense gave up 2 TDs and a FG in like 3 minutes to end that KC game.  

And don’t forget we used our first on Diggs.  So we waited until the third just one time to address offense, and that was last year.  Not like it’s been every year.   

 

This is recency bias at its finest. 
 

Again…the Bills had the number one ranked defense over the course of an entire 17 game season.
 

The Bills offense was pretty bad over a significant stretch of the season. Don’t just look at Allen’s numbers. Without Allen during that stretch, we would have lost a few more games than we did. He was our offense. He was running for his life from pressure in his face at the snap, he was the leading rusher most games, and he was taking a ton of hits. 
 

Was the offense really good the last few games?  You’re darn right they were, but don’t let that fool you that we are ok on that side of the ball. There is still a lot to improve. 
 

Are there things to improve on d?  Yeah, but it’s tough to argue over a season long ranking. You can get caught up on the last few games, but I think the loss was mainly on the coaches more than anything. 

[dje85]

11 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

Also, that punter is not going in the seventh round. I think he goes in the 4th. I know that sounds crazy, but there are a bunch of bad teams with a lot of early picks who will take a flyer early on a guy who punts 80 yards. 

That wouldn't surprise me at all. I have seen mocks with him in the second round. That would surprise me, but just takes one team.

[MarlinTheMagician]

I believe the posts that recite "we had the number 1 defense" are, respectfully, misguided.  We had major problems stopping the run all year.  We have to (and I believe will) sign Harry because he made major progress vs. the run late.  Star is not a long-term answer - not available enough, paid too much, getting old.  In addition to run problems, many of our games were against incompetent QBs that could not threaten us through the air.  And the Chiefs game showed that speed can beat our system and our DBs.  You want offense?  Don't tie up $10 million in Star and many millions more in a CB 2 (who may have to be a CB 1 until Tre is fully healthy).

 

We need to answer what this year showed about our defense in a couple of ways:  Beefy inside dudes that can both stop the run AND collapse the pocket from the inside.  Inside push will maximize our numerous picks on DEs and Ed Oliver -- we need to unsettle the QB quickly and flush him to the ends (whomever Bean likes among Mathis, Wyatt, Travis Jones, Jordan Davis, Winfrey) and second, we desperately need speed in the secondary (whomever Beane likes of people like Gordon, McDuffie, McReary etc) that will also allow us to maximize the coverage skills of Tre White and our excellent but ageing safeties.  Then worry about offense.  Scheme and the professionalism of Levi Wallace let us get by with a CB #1 (Levi) who runs about a 4.7 in the 40.  Time ran out on that in the playoffs.  Whether we keep Levi or not, I feel we need two fast corners, one early and one late that we can develop (in my draft, Woolen).  An excellent Star replacement and a top CB2 on cheap contracts are massive help for the offense.  Both in getting the ball back and allowing us the money to get proven talent where needed (Kirk in the slot?)

[MarlinTheMagician]

 

DL age at start of season:  Obada 30, Star 32; Hughes 34, Addison 35.  

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

9 hours ago, First Round Bust said:

I do like the trade idea, but I like a WR in round 1 more and its a deep CB draft so trade up in the second round for a CB...I do like the variety of your picks but am stoked about the P...Ariaza is the best come out in a long time... holds the NCAA's record for most 50 yard punts and 60 yard punts,. ... And it isn't because he hits it low, as Araiza's punting average was the best in college football at 51.19 net yards, per NCAA.com.Jan 12, 2022...rumored to go in rounds 3-6 which is high but likely worth it...and I love Tarvis Jones at DT as he does press the pcoket...dont see us making 9 picks...thats too many to make our roster plus 2 got snatched from the PS last season as well.

This team does not punt enough to waste a 3rd ,4th, or even 5th round pick on a punter.  

[MarlinTheMagician]

Plus, our ends can never get pressure if the opposing offense is consistently in second and 3 because we can't stop the darn run.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

Plus, our ends can never get pressure if the opposing offense is consistently in second and 3 because we can't stop the darn run.  

 

That was a genuine problem in 2020. It also restricts how exotic the Bills can be on the back end in coverage and while the Bills are schemativally towards the more vanilla teams in the league up front they are one of the least vanilla teams in terms of coverage looks. 

 

I'm not sure it was as much of a problem in 2021. The second half of the Tennessee game was the only time that I really felt like we were losing so badly on first down that it was preventing the defense from doing what it wanted to do on 2nd and 3rd down. 

[atomicpwrd]

For those of you that say you are tired of drafting defense high, I don't understand...

 

We drafted offense at the following draft positions:

 

2021 - 3,5,6,7 - no super high picks, but a lot of quantity, and two of those are turning out very well

2020 - 1, 3.4.5.7 - That 1 was the trade for Diggs...

2019 - 2,3,3,7

2018 - 1,5,6,7 - that 1 was Josh Allen

 

So, in the last 4 years that's two number ones for offense.  And really Diggs costed us more than just that number one.

 

At least half of the players drafted those years were offense.

 

Our defense probably costed us this year's championship. We still have the potential to return the entire offense from last year...we have plenty of weapons, and I think we should add to that, but if we draft defense this year, you won't see me crying about it.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, atomicpwrd said:

For those of you that say you are tired of drafting defense high, I don't understand...

 

We drafted offense at the following draft positions:

 

2021 - 3,5,6,7 - no super high picks, but a lot of quantity, and two of those are turning out very well

2020 - 1, 3.4.5.7 - That 1 was the trade for Diggs...

2019 - 2,3,3,7

2018 - 1,5,6,7 - that 1 was Josh Allen

 

So, in the last 4 years that's two number ones for offense.  And really Diggs costed us more than just that number one.

 

At least half of the players drafted those years were offense.

 

Our defense probably costed us this year's championship. We still have the potential to return the entire offense from last year...we have plenty of weapons, and I think we should add to that, but if we draft defense this year, you won't see me crying about it.

 

The problem isn't the picks they have spent on each side so much as what they have got from them. They have spent two thirds on running backs and still have a struggling run game. They have spent 1 first and two seconds on pass rushers and still struggle to generate consistent pass rush from the outside. 

 

As for last year, how are two of the offensive guys turning out very well? Spencer Brown is 1 (and he is still far from the finished article but was encouraging as a rookie) who is the other? 

[Nihilarian]

3 hours ago, whorlnut said:

The Bills offense was pretty bad over a significant stretch of the season. Don’t just look at Allen’s numbers. Without Allen during that stretch, we would have lost a few more games than we did. He was our offense. He was running for his life from pressure in his face at the snap, he was the leading rusher most games, and he was taking a ton of hits. 
 

Was the offense really good the last few games?  You’re darn right they were, but don’t let that fool you that we are ok on that side of the ball. There is still a lot to improve. 
 

Are there things to improve on d?  Yeah, but it’s tough to argue over a season long ranking. You can get caught up on the last few games, but I think the loss was mainly on the coaches more than anything. 

This!

 

Then tell those that want to draft a WR or another DT/DE to go back and re-watch that freaking Jacksonville Jaguars game in 2021 week 9.

 

You know, the one that the Bills couldn't throw or run so they just kept throwing. Kept putting the QB under the gun all game with 47 pass attempts for 264 yards, 2 INTs.

 

How about that Falcons game in week 17, Josh Allen 11 of 26 for 120 yards, 3 INTs. Yes, that was our beloved QB that couldn't get it going...luckily, the Bills found god and started running the ball with Singletary, 23 rushes for 110 yards and 2 TDs. Needless to say... that Allen was nearly the teams leading rusher again with 15 attempts for 81 yards, 2 TDs. 

 

Build that offensive line! 

 

 

The current Buffalo Bills have how many #1 picks on defense?  Tre White, Tre Edmunds, Ed Oliver, Greg Rousseau, Vernon Butler, Jerry Hughes, Star Lotulelei,  7?

(AJ Epenesa 2nd)(Carlos Basham 2nd).