Bills are on the clock at #25

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I see what you are saying in terms of Aaron Donald. But is there an Aaron Donald level prospect at LT that will be there at #25? I would think that level of LT prospect is going to go in the top 10 picks. 

 

And why would Dawkins transition to guard? There have been quite a few LT's that have not had to make mid career or even late career switches to the inside. Off the top of my head Trent Williams, Jason Peters, Tyron Smith. None of those guys made transitions to guards. And they have all played LT into their 30's and well beyond in Peters case. Yes, those guys are all - pros and future HOFers but i would think Dawkins could play LT for 3-4 more years. That only bring him up to 30 - 31. 

 

I don't think anyone is saying Dawkins can't play tackle a few more years. The point I think is that the Bills need to upgrade the line... if you are doing that in the 1st positional value decrees that has to be a tackle unless you are talking an elite level prospect elsewhere. And the Bills shouldn't avoid drafting a tackle just because they have Dion who is decent and Brown who was serviceable as a rookie. If tackle makes sense at #25 in terms of the players on the board you take him and then work out who plays where later (which would most likely be Dion at guard). 

 

That said I think the 4 tackles who would be day 1 upgrades are all gone by the time we pick. It is more likely to me that receiver or corner provides a guy who is 1. A genuine 1st round talent; 2. An immediate upgrade; 3. At a premium position. 

 

I was hopeful Trevor Penning would slide. But he killed any hope of that by dominating the senior bowl.

[Victory Formation]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think anyone is saying Dawkins can't play tackle a few more years. The point I think is that the Bills need to upgrade the line... if you are doing that in the 1st positional value decrees that has to be a tackle unless you are talking an elite level prospect elsewhere. And the Bills shouldn't avoid drafting a tackle just because they have Dion who is decent and Brown who was serviceable as a rookie. If tackle makes sense at #25 in terms of the players on the board you take him and then work out who plays where later (which would most likely be Dion at guard). 

 

That said I think the 4 tackles who would be day 1 upgrades are all gone by the time we pick. It is more likely to me that receiver or corner provides a guy who is 1. A genuine 1st round talent; 2. An immediate upgrade; 3. At a premium position. 

 

I was hopeful Trevor Penning would slide. But he killed any hope of that by dominating the senior bowl.

I think the Bills have 3 solid tackles in Dawkins, Brown and Williams and Doyle is a solid backup kind of player. If we go OL RD1, give me Linderbaum preferably and by a wide margin and give me the Zion Johnson kid if Linderbaum is gone.

 

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

I think the Bills have 3 solid tackles in Dawkins, Brown and Williams and Doyle is a solid backup kind of player. If we go OL RD1, give me Linderbaum preferably and by a wide margin and give me the Zion Johnson kid if Linderbaum is gone.

 

You don’t think Williams is solid if you watched him play RT last season. He was a turnstile and an embarasment.  Jordan Mills >> Williams’ play @ RT last season.  
 

brown was pretty terrible in pass protection.  He’s a great asset in the run game and after Josh eludes the pass rusher that just beat brown and is in freelance scramble mode. Brown has been an excellent pass blocker after the initial play breaks down.  Too bad he has big problems staying in front of his man off rip. I’m very hopeful for his future but we have no clue if he ever becomes a good in pass protection.  

 

dawkins was at his best in the last 3rd of the season. He had me worried in the first 2/3s.  
 

If we select an OT in rd 1, I just hope they have the ability to play OG or we believe Brown and/or Dawkins also have the ability to move inside with success

 

id love the Linderbaum pick.  Not sure who my next OL target would be.

Edited February 19, 2022 by NewEra

[Victory Formation]

19 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You don’t think Williams is solid if you watched him play RT last season. He was a turnstile and an embarasment.  Jordan Mills >> Williams’ play @ RT last season.  
 

brown was pretty terrible in pass protection.  He’s a great asset in the run game and after Josh eludes the pass rusher that just beat brown and is in freelance scramble mode. Brown has been an excellent pass blocker after the initial play breaks down.  Too bad he has big problems staying in front of his man off rip. I’m very hopeful for his future but we have no clue if he ever becomes a good in pass protection.  

 

dawkins was at his best in the last 3rd of the season. He had me worried in the first 2/3s.  
 

If we select an OT in rd 1, I just hope they have the ability to play OG or we believe Brown and/or Dawkins also have the ability to move inside with success

 

id love the Linderbaum pick.  Not sure who my next OL target would be.

Well, you could be right about Williams, although I thought that our line did really good last year when our starting lineup was:

Dawkins/Bates/Morse/Williams/Brown

 

Dawkins is a known commodity at this point and Brown is a guy who I thought flashed very solid potential at times, so I don’t think you send either of them to the bench.

 

The main issue I have, which you have kindly illuminated is the Williams at RG situation. The main issue at this point is money. If Dawkins or Brown went down, you could do much worse than bumping Williams back out to RT.

 

I will also say that this Linderbaum kid would not be a bad choice by any stretch of the imagination. Drafting him in my mind would be highly understandable and this is coming from a guy who thinks that Morse is criminally underrated by most Bills fans. Also, in the event that we did draft Linderbaum, if he’s even there, that would greatly solidify our interior OL and would make the idea of losing Darry Williams much more justifiable and understandable. Not to mention that our 3 starting IOL at this point would all have tremendous potential on sweeps, pull plays and getting to second level, which coincidentally is the same reason why I see a hope and a future for Spencer Brown.

 

All in all, I’m more than good with Linderbaum, but I’m also good with half a dozen or so picks there as well.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I see what you are saying in terms of Aaron Donald. But is there an Aaron Donald level prospect at LT that will be there at #25? I would think that level of LT prospect is going to go in the top 10 picks. 

 

And why would Dawkins transition to guard? There have been quite a few LT's that have not had to make mid career or even late career switches to the inside. Off the top of my head Trent Williams, Jason Peters, Tyron Smith. None of those guys made transitions to guards. And they have all played LT into their 30's and well beyond in Peters case. Yes, those guys are all - pros and future HOFers but i would think Dawkins could play LT for 3-4 more years. That only bring him up to 30 - 31. 

 

 

Aaron Donald is firmly in the conversation of top 10 defensive players all-time.......for prisoners of the moment he might be #1 overall.........so it's unlikely there is one of those in this draft at all............let alone where the Bills are picking at 25th.

 

A very good player at a premium position would be a GREAT get there though and there very well might be one of those.

 

It would have to be a pretty woeful draft to look back years from now and think that the best pick at #25 would have been a guard or a running back or an off-ball LB etc..

 

QB's and edge/island players have the best chance to make the greatest individual impacts in games........which is why they get the big bucks come contract time.

 

As for Dawkins.........yeah you mentioned 3 probable HOF LT's that haven't switched to LT...........they are all freaks of nature athletically........but lot's of good tackles flame out after 5-6 years........we just tend to forget about them.

 

Jonas Jennings was an excellent LT and got huge money to leave Buffalo for San Francisco........and flamed out in year 5.    Cordy Glenn was excellent too.......also flamed out between years 6 and 7.     I like Dawkins but in terms of talent/athleticism he is much closer to those guys than the HOF types you listed, IMO.   

[TPS]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think anyone is saying Dawkins can't play tackle a few more years. The point I think is that the Bills need to upgrade the line... if you are doing that in the 1st positional value decrees that has to be a tackle unless you are talking an elite level prospect elsewhere. And the Bills shouldn't avoid drafting a tackle just because they have Dion who is decent and Brown who was serviceable as a rookie. If tackle makes sense at #25 in terms of the players on the board you take him and then work out who plays where later (which would most likely be Dion at guard). 

 

That said I think the 4 tackles who would be day 1 upgrades are all gone by the time we pick. It is more likely to me that receiver or corner provides a guy who is 1. A genuine 1st round talent; 2. An immediate upgrade; 3. At a premium position. 

 

I was hopeful Trevor Penning would slide. But he killed any hope of that by dominating the senior bowl.

Dawkins had a lot of issues early in the season, but according to this source, he was the highest rated LT since week 13.

 

[Victory Formation]

7 minutes ago, TPS said:

Dawkins had a lot of issues early in the season, but according to this source, he was the highest rated LT since week 13.

 

Don’t forget, he had COVID twice.

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, TPS said:

Dawkins had a lot of issues early in the season, but according to this source, he was the highest rated LT since week 13.

 

 

I agree. He got back to his best at the end of the year. The point of drafting a tackle is not saying "I don't trust Dion" it is that you use 1st round picks on premium positions and that means if you want to upgrade the oline through round 1 you do it by drafting a tackle. If you end up with three great tackles then you work out who plays where later. 

 

Drafting interior OL in round 1 for need is generally a bad idea. 

[BADOLBILZ]

49 minutes ago, TPS said:

Dawkins had a lot of issues early in the season, but according to this source, he was the highest rated LT since week 13.

 

 

 

Pretty sure former All Pro Daryl Williams had a long stretch where he was grading out like the best RT in the league.

 

Oh, wait, that was 2020.........then he was awful at RT in 2021. 

 

Dawkins is a good player who struggles with conditioning.........a lot of times players like that hit a wall in their mid-late 20's where the natural athleticism alone ceases to be enough.    

 

For some they can change their habits and not lose a step.........others can't and it's a career killer..........for others it just changes their role.

[gonzo1105]

Dion Dawkins has been better than an average LT in the league. If they are replacing anyone on the line it’s at RT or interior. To me he’s the one guy for sure locked in at his position

[Tanoros]

On 2/10/2022 at 3:43 PM, YattaOkasan said:

I get why people are going OL but it seems like one of our more complete position groups. Considering how many DL we use, how few we have under contract, and our history I won’t be surprised if we go that way again. Not that I’m super excited about how well we’ve done with that position group. 

It’s because Morse could retire anytime, Williams is in year 2 of a 3 year contract, that was for a tackle. Additionally the 3rd year only has a dead cap hit of $1.8 million, so there’s a good chance they move on after this year. Our second guard spot will be an open competition with Bates going against whoever they bring in through FA/draft. 
 

What I’m getting at is, we could use an upgrade at guard for this year alone (Bates is great depth if he gets beat out), but need more inside help in the coming years. 
 

Linderbaum can play both guard/center. Potentially coming in as a guard year 1, learning the system, and transitioning to center in the next year or more (depending on Morse). 
 

At the end of the season when we had success, it was with more use of heavy sets (most likely to help the line). If we can rely less on heavy sets, it will help open up our options for attacking. Not that we don’t use them, just not needing them to give Josh time to throw. 

Edited February 20, 2022 by Tanoros

[Tanoros]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Pretty sure former All Pro Daryl Williams had a long stretch where he was grading out like the best RT in the league.

 

Oh, wait, that was 2020.........then he was awful at RT in 2021. 

 

Dawkins is a good player who struggles with conditioning.........a lot of times players like that hit a wall in their mid-late 20's where the natural athleticism alone ceases to be enough.    

 

For some they can change their habits and not lose a step.........others can't and it's a career killer..........for others it just changes their role.

Not saying your wrong, but Dawkins was hospitalized for Covid. He started slow for a legitimate reason. Him coming on strong down the stretch helps to show how well he could have been all season without Covid. 
 

I’m excited to see him play this year fully healthy and hopefully with better guard play around him. 

[Tanoros]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think anyone is saying Dawkins can't play tackle a few more years. The point I think is that the Bills need to upgrade the line... if you are doing that in the 1st positional value decrees that has to be a tackle unless you are talking an elite level prospect elsewhere. And the Bills shouldn't avoid drafting a tackle just because they have Dion who is decent and Brown who was serviceable as a rookie. If tackle makes sense at #25 in terms of the players on the board you take him and then work out who plays where later (which would most likely be Dion at guard). 

 

That said I think the 4 tackles who would be day 1 upgrades are all gone by the time we pick. It is more likely to me that receiver or corner provides a guy who is 1. A genuine 1st round talent; 2. An immediate upgrade; 3. At a premium position. 

 

I was hopeful Trevor Penning would slide. But he killed any hope of that by dominating the senior bowl.

I may have missed it from your earlier conversation upthread. But would you consider Linderbaum at 25? I see that you would only consider elite level talent on non premium positions in the first. Just curious. 
 

I trust Beane and the Bills to make the right call and I too hope it’s someone who can make an impact day 1. I’m hoping it’s Linderbaum, but I’d be fine with a handful to he honest. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, Tanoros said:

Not saying your wrong, but Dawkins was hospitalized for Covid. He started slow for a legitimate reason. Him coming on strong down the stretch helps to show how well he could have been all season without Covid. 
 

I’m excited to see him play this year fully healthy and hopefully with better guard play around him. 

 

Yeah but he also looked like a beach ball at OTA's last offseason and had to hustle to get in shape before camp.............my impression is that it just doesn't appear to be in his nature/habit to stay in shape..........that's the kinda' guy you probably don't bet on being the rare one who excels at LT for 8-10 years.

 

Might be easier for him to transition to LG and still excel in the next couple years.    

 

 

[DapperCam]

Does anybody know why Williams seems to have forgotten how to play RT over the past offseason? He was very good in pass pro the prior season, what happened? He got paid, and then stopped trying or what?

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, Tanoros said:

It’s because Morse could retire anytime, Williams is in year 2 of a 3 year contract, that was for a tackle. Additionally the 3rd year only has a dead cap hit of $1.8 million, so there’s a good chance they move on after this year. Our second guard spot will be an open competition with Bates going against whoever they bring in through FA/draft. 
 

What I’m getting at is, we could use an upgrade at guard for this year alone (Bates is great depth if he gets beat out), but need more inside help in the coming years. 
 

Linderbaum can play both guard/center. Potentially coming in as a guard year 1, learning the system, and transitioning to center in the next year or more (depending on Morse). 
 

At the end of the season when we had success, it was with more use of heavy sets (most likely to help the line). If we can rely less on heavy sets, it will help open up our options for attacking. Not that we don’t use them, just not needing them to give Josh time to throw. 

Sure but we also lack serious depth at DT. We at least have our starting 5 and all contributors returning (assuming they tendor Bates) except Boettger who probably doesn’t have a big market.  Morse isn’t 30 and played a full season so talk of retirement is def just speculation. We can rework Williams deal and I thought the line played well with Bates so am ok if he’s the floor. 
 

at DT we got like nothing. FA could change this but at moment we have Ed, star, Ankou. Even if that position group performed well last year (about even with OL imo) we would need to restock.  With the state of OL and the Kroger hiring I think a day 3 pick to develop would be fine for iOL. 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Tanoros said:

I may have missed it from your earlier conversation upthread. But would you consider Linderbaum at 25? I see that you would only consider elite level talent on non premium positions in the first. Just curious. 
 

I trust Beane and the Bills to make the right call and I too hope it’s someone who can make an impact day 1. I’m hoping it’s Linderbaum, but I’d be fine with a handful to he honest. 

 

What I have said previously about IOL stands. I do have a first round grade on Linderbaum which is rare for me with a center, I think Ryan Kelly might have been the last. So is there a scenario where at #25 I'd be comfortable with Linderbaum? Yes, but he wouldn't be my top 5 options at that spot. 

 

I also don't think he will make it past Philly's 3 picks. My other slight concern about him for the Bills is I think Linderbaum will really excel in a heavy zone blocking scheme and it looks to me like the Bills are going to commit more to a gap scheme.

[TPS]

19 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Pretty sure former All Pro Daryl Williams had a long stretch where he was grading out like the best RT in the league.

 

Oh, wait, that was 2020.........then he was awful at RT in 2021. 

 

Dawkins is a good player who struggles with conditioning.........a lot of times players like that hit a wall in their mid-late 20's where the natural athleticism alone ceases to be enough.    

 

For some they can change their habits and not lose a step.........others can't and it's a career killer..........for others it just changes their role.

No doubt he looked out of shape early which could've been covid-related, who knows.  My response was related to drafting an OT in R1, though @GunnerBill clarified for me the point was in relation to drafting interior O vs OTs in R1 in general , and I agree (though I'd support taking Linderbaum if he was there).  

To Dawkins, I think he's a top 10 LT at the very least, and I think the Bills will be just fine with him for the duration of his contract (he'll be 30 at the end of it). There are more important needs to address than OT in this draft.  My personal preference is the other skill positions--CB, Edge, and WR, depending on who drops. 

 

 

[Tanoros]

16 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Sure but we also lack serious depth at DT. We at least have our starting 5 and all contributors returning (assuming they tendor Bates) except Boettger who probably doesn’t have a big market.  Morse isn’t 30 and played a full season so talk of retirement is def just speculation. We can rework Williams deal and I thought the line played well with Bates so am ok if he’s the floor. 
 

at DT we got like nothing. FA could change this but at moment we have Ed, star, Ankou. Even if that position group performed well last year (about even with OL imo) we would need to restock.  With the state of OL and the Kroger hiring I think a day 3 pick to develop would be fine for iOL. 

It’s true about our depth at DT, that’s what makes these discussions a little hard before FA. Obviously anything can happen in FA, but I feel like there is a strong chance Harrison Phillips is resigned, leading to my comment about IOL. If he isn’t resigned, DT would be a glaring need. 

[Orlando Tim]

I am not good at determining which CB plays the right style for our defense but if a CB is not the BPA at that point in draft I will be surprised. This appears to be a deep draft for CBs from what I am reading and we could certainly use another one if Wallace leaves.