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2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

No he's definitely a bit player.  

 

If Ja'Marr Chase goes down they simply can't replace him with an equally productive/impactful player.    

 

If Joe Mixon goes down they can find another guy to run for 4.1 yards off the street.   

 

The bottom line with RB's:   there is a sweet spot..........you find one good enough to produce when called upon........but not so intriguing that you feel compelled to "give him his touches".  

 

Devin Singletary totally checks those boxes if your target point in the run game is between the tackle and the guard.   He's ordinary on the eyes.........but he consistently outproduces most RB's when he gets the ball.

 

Joe Mixon is that guy who breaks off that exciting looking run that makes you think if you give him the ball more he will do that more...........while simultaneously forgetting why he always ends up with just 4 yards per carry every year.      

Note the shifting goal posts -- from bit player in championship game to bit player overall. That's wrong too, but whatever. I'll stick to your original supposition -- that he was a bit player in the championship game. In that game, said bit player had 36.3 percent of the team's touches, 31.4 percent of the team's total yards, and in OT he handled the ball 5 out of 7 times, including the final three times in which his rushes moved the ball from the 32 to the 12. 


Finally, you have not addressed Cincinnati's woeful o-line, which is without question one of the least talented units in the league (they allowed a whopping 55 sacks). It has an impact on RB play. You also haven't touched on the issue of the importance of catch percentage for RBs (vs WRs) -- Mixon caught 87.5 percent of the balls thrown his way, which ranked 5th in the entire league. Teams need safe plays, especially with that kind of line, and if he can catch it at the rate, he's obviously pretty valuable. And again, you admit nothing about TDs runs driving down ypc (kind of an obvious deduction--the field ends but the player is still moving forward, and if you have 13 rushing TDs, that's thirteen plays that just end with you winning but with no more yardage to gain). Bear in mind that Mixon's longest run all season was 32 yards. It's not because he can't break away; at 4.43, he obviously can and has in the past. It's just that these plays are basically pretty random, and not having that 70 yarder (instead of a 32 yarder) meant his ypc was 4.1 instead of 4.3. He was sixth in the league in broken tackles (20) and 4th in the league in yards after broken tackles.  He also had more yards from scrimmage than Chase and again had 16 TDs. He finished 4th in the league in TDs and 8th in the league in yards from scrimmage.  How is that in any way, shape, or form "bit player"??

 

Lemme guess your answer: "4.1 ypc."

Edited by dave mcbride
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7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Note the shifting goal posts -- from bit player in championship game to bit player overall. That's wrong too, but whatever. I'll stick to your original supposition -- that he was a bit player in the championship game. In that game, said bit player had 36.3 percent of the team's touches, 31.4 percent of the team's total yards, and in OT he handled the ball 5 out of 7 times, including the final three times in which his rushes moved the ball from the 32 to the 12. 


Finally, you have not addressed Cincinnati's woeful o-line, which is without question one of the least talented units in the league (they allowed a whopping 55 sacks). It has an impact on RB play. You also haven't touched on the issue of the importance of catch percentage for RBs (vs WRs) -- Mixon caught 87.5 percent of the balls thrown his way, which ranked 5th in the entire league. Teams need safe plays, especially with that kind of line, and if he can catch it at the rate, he's obviously pretty valuable. And again, you admit nothing about TDs runs driving down ypc (kind of an obvious deduction--the field ends but the player is still moving forward, and if you have 13 rushing TDs, that's thirteen plays that just end with you winning but with no more yardage to gain). Bear in mind that Mixon's longest run all season was 32 yards. It's not because he can't break away; at 4.43, he obviously can and has in the past. It's just that these plays are basically pretty random, and not having that 70 yarder (instead of a 32 yarder) meant his ypc was 4.1 instead of 4.3. He was sixth in the league in broken tackles (20) and 4th in the league in yards after broken tackles.  He also had more yards from scrimmage than Chase and again had 16 TDs. He finished 4th in the league in TDs and 8th in the league in yards from scrimmage.  How is that in any way, shape, or form "bit player"??

 

Lemme guess your answer: "4.1 ypc."

 

There is no moving of goal posts...........if he had run for 200 yards like Timmy Smith in the SB versus Denver it still doesn't change the fact that RB's are easily replaceable and that the position is more dependent on the production of the other 10 players on the field than any other.

 

So what he had a lot of "touches"..............the Bengals scored just 24 points in regulation.

 

You really think they win that game if 1 of Burrow or Chase or Tee Higgins misses that game but don't do it if a RB is out?    Vegas would disagree, dave.

 

As for their OL............it's poor but so was the Buffalo O-line for much of the year.      Buffalo gave up way more combined pressures and sacks than Cinci on the season.    

 

You.........dave mcbride........ are the one always talking about sacks being a "QB stat" and those 51 sacks plus 9 more in the divisional playoff game are the reason why Cinci gets cited for having a such woeful OL.

 

But like Buffalo versus NE in the playoffs...........the Bengals OL played better in KC than they had in prior games.    

 

You are usually more rational than to buy into total yards and percent of snaps as proof of impact............in the right conditions any back can help your team take the air out of ball and shorten games.......production per play matters A LOT.....and speaking of moving goal posts..........you have always been very quick to point out the great importance of yards per pass attempt but now don't think averaging below league average per rush attempt matters?    Say what?

 

I don't even think you believe your own BS here you just take offense to me lumping RB's together when Joe Mixon is on your fantasy team. :lol:

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24 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

There is no moving of goal posts...........if he had run for 200 yards like Timmy Smith in the SB versus Denver it still doesn't change the fact that RB's are easily replaceable and that the position is more dependent on the production of the other 10 players on the field than any other.

 

So what he had a lot of "touches"..............the Bengals scored just 24 points in regulation.

 

You really think they win that game if 1 of Burrow or Chase or Tee Higgins misses that game but don't do it if a RB is out?    Vegas would disagree, dave.

 

As for their OL............it's poor but so was the Buffalo O-line for much of the year.      Buffalo gave up way more combined pressures and sacks than Cinci on the season.    

 

You.........dave mcbride........ are the one always talking about sacks being a "QB stat" and those 51 sacks plus 9 more in the divisional playoff game are the reason why Cinci gets cited for having a such woeful OL.

 

But like Buffalo versus NE in the playoffs...........the Bengals OL played better in KC than they had in prior games.    

 

You are usually more rational than to buy into total yards and percent of snaps as proof of impact............in the right conditions any back can help your team take the air out of ball and shorten games.......production per play matters A LOT.....and speaking of moving goal posts..........you have always been very quick to point out the great importance of yards per pass attempt but now don't think averaging below league average per rush attempt matters?    Say what?

 

I don't even think you believe your own BS here you just take offense to me lumping RB's together when Joe Mixon is on your fantasy team. :lol:

Here's what I do know. The Bengals line is terrible. Like, really terrible, and a good bit worse than the Bills' line. All you have to do is watch it play--it's basically Robert Hicks and Melvin Fowler turned up to 11. A couple of those guys can barely play. Going into the draft last year, the Bengals took a TON of heat for taking Chase over Sewell given the terrible talent on that line, and while obviously Chase is great, their line remains a shambling wreck. What they do have is an elite QB, a great receiving corps, and a difference-making RB that teams always account for. To be sure, I totally believe that QBs often make their own sacks much of the time, but it's also the case that a line can be terrible too and cause lots of sacks on their own. Two things can be true at once. They literally couldn't block TN, and there wasn't a thing Burrow could do about it. They did play better vs. KC, no doubt. But there were far too many games where they were horrible.

 

I have a feeling I have watched more of the Bengals than you this season simply because you're a season-ticket holder. He's a very, very good RB, and teams really do try and key on him. Where I will agree with you is that they should not give him a big second contract. They got while the getting was good regarding Mixon. As for him vs. Singletary, I'd feel confident in betting a tidy sum of money that there's not a single NFL personnel guy in the league who thinks the latter is better than Mixon. That doesn't mean that Singletary isn't pretty good.

 

As for YPA, I firmly believe it's an indicative stat, but then again I also believe that Allen was one of the best QBs in the league last season despite a disappointing ypa. Stat lines are important, but they can be deceiving. Context really matters.

 

Whoops - they did sign him to a second contract (4 years / $48 million): https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/joe-mixon-21789/. Not what I would have done, but if he helps them win a SB then I guess it's OK.

Edited by dave mcbride
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4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Here's what I do know. The Bengals line is terrible. Like, really terrible, and a good bit worse than the Bills' line. All you have to do is watch it play--it's basically Robert Hicks and Melvin Fowler turned up to 11. A couple of those guys can barely play. Going into the draft last year, the Bengals took a TON of heat for taking Chase over Sewell given the terrible talent on that line, and while obviously Chase is great, their line remains a shambling wreck. What they do have is an elite QB, a great receiving corps, and a difference-making RB that teams always account for. To be sure, I totally believe that QBs often make their own sacks much of the time, but it's also the case that a line can be terrible too and cause lots of sacks on their own. Two things can be true at once. They literally couldn't block TN, and there wasn't a thing Burrow could do about it. They did play better vs. KC, no doubt. But there were far too many games where they were horrible.

 

I have a feeling I have watched more of the Bengals than you this season simply because you're a season-ticket holder. He's a very, very good RB, and teams really do try and key on him. Where I will agree with you is that they should not give him a big second contract. They got while the getting was good regarding Mixon. As for him vs. Singletary, I'd feel confident in betting a tidy sum of money that there's not a single NFL personnel guy in the league who thinks the latter is better than Mixon. That doesn't mean that Singletary isn't pretty good.

 

As for YPA, I firmly believe it's an indicative stat, but then again I also believe that Allen was one of the best QBs in the league last season despite a disappointing ypa. Stat lines are important, but they can be deceiving. Context really matters.

 

Whoops - they did sign him to a second contract (4 years / $48 million): https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cincinnati-bengals/joe-mixon-21789/. Not what I would have done, but if he helps them win a SB then I guess it's OK.

 

 

So you are just saying that Joe Mixon is "3X the player that Devin Singletary is" but not worth $12M per year that you didn't know they gave him despite supposedly knowing a lot more about him than me?

 

Terrible takes in this thread, dave.  :lol:

 

Are you reversing the course of your past common sense to pander to the heavily 55+ TSW crowd that still thinks the 1990 brand of NFL football can be revived again if they just Billieve in them runnin' bax?

 

Those days are over, dave.

 

The running game is really not about the running backs themselves anymore.

 

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On 2/8/2022 at 1:22 AM, SCBills said:

Kadarius Toney

 

Saquon Barkley

 

James Bradberry 

 

With Schoen over at NYG, any of these guys interest anyone here?

 

For me personally, I'd offer a 2nd Rounder for Toney.  Still on a rookie deal, 1st RD Pick last year.  Not the same player as Tyreek Hill in terms of speed, but similar playmaking ability out of the slot.  

 

 

Saquon's $7.2M this coming year. Good player. But in our cap situation, I think he'd be a no thanks. Bradberry is about twice that. 

 

I'd give maybe a 3rd for Toney. Maybe. Maybe a 4th. If that wasn't enough to get him, I'd live with that.

 

Availability is a serious concern with the guy. He only played in ten games last year. I wouldn't consider a 2nd for a moment.

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The issue with Barkley is - say you trade  assets for a running back with one year left at $7.2m fully guaranteed (so unlikely a notion I cannot believe it’s still being discussed), your BEST CASE scenario is he has a good enough year to justify that price and THEN you’ve got to pay him serious dollars over multiple years (with Elliott’s deal a potential starting point).  There is almost no chance that doesn’t come back to bite you at some point during the second contract.  And that’s the best case scenario!

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36 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

The issue with Barkley is - say you trade  assets for a running back with one year left at $7.2m fully guaranteed (so unlikely a notion I cannot believe it’s still being discussed), your BEST CASE scenario is he has a good enough year to justify that price and THEN you’ve got to pay him serious dollars over multiple years

 

Or just let him walk after renting him for a year. Teams in their championship window take that approach all the time.

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9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Or just let him walk after renting him for a year. Teams in their championship window take that approach all the time.


So - you are proposing they trade assets for a one-year $7m rental running back who is coming off a worse year than Singletary, and then let him walk if he performs really well???

 

Sorry this is Crazy Town.

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12 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

So you are just saying that Joe Mixon is "3X the player that Devin Singletary is" but not worth $12M per year that you didn't know they gave him despite supposedly knowing a lot more about him than me?

 

Terrible takes in this thread, dave.  :lol:

 

Are you reversing the course of your past common sense to pander to the heavily 55+ TSW crowd that still thinks the 1990 brand of NFL football can be revived again if they just Billieve in them runnin' bax?

 

Those days are over, dave.

 

The running game is really not about the running backs themselves anymore.

 

Now you twist what I say by making a money-based argument, which I never did and never would. I never placed a dollar value on any of these players. All I did was say that Mixon was significantly better than Singletary and a difference maker. And the resort to insult is a sad way to end an interesting debate. Oh well.

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36 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:


So - you are proposing they trade assets for a one-year $7m rental running back who is coming off a worse year than Singletary, and then let him walk if he performs really well???

 

Sorry this is Crazy Town.

 

Not a particularly valuable asset. He could probably be had for a day 3 pick. The Rams traded a 2nd and 3rd for a half a season rental of Von Miller. Getting one year of possibly elite RB play in our best championship window is worth it.

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1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Now you twist what I say by making a money-based argument, which I never did and never would. I never placed a dollar value on any of these players. All I did was say that Mixon was significantly better than Singletary and a difference maker. And the resort to insult is a sad way to end an interesting debate. Oh well.

 

 

I was having fun with your strange.........but always popular on TSW............choice to isolate one opposing RB from a crowd of RB's when he is basically just a durable, average production per touch RB.

 

I literally sit in the lower bowl of the stadium where the age demographic is very much like TSW...........and every time an opposing RB runs for 3-5 yards there is an audible frustration in the crowd.........and when the Bills RB does the same it's "meh" or "throw the ball our RB's suck!".  

 

The RB on the other side of the fence is ALWAYS better to people who grew up in an era when handing the ball off to the RB was a more aggressive and logical offensive decision than it is today.

 

And for some reason you even started down the path of Marv Levy with the "Only 3 things can happen when you throw the ball and 2 are bad" line of thinking........which is so very clearly no longer true.

 

So yeah.......that's why I made the joke about you pandering to bygone notions. 

 

The league hasn't changed again over night..........even handing the ball off to a 5 yard per carry Nick Chubb is still more of a necessary evil than a dynamic offensive decision.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:


So - you are proposing they trade assets for a one-year $7m rental running back who is coming off a worse year than Singletary, and then let him walk if he performs really well???

 

Sorry this is Crazy Town.

 

 

I can only chalk up the ridiculous notion to the fact that Beane was extremely careless with cap dollars in 2018-2019 and some fans still think that paying a $6M to a backup LB or washed up Josh Norman is some kind of going rate for low impact additions..........and therefore $7M isn't too bad for a shot at a former "generational RB" talent.

 

Beane was AWFUL at the cap for 2+ offseasons..........terrible...........$5M-$7M deals for reserve OL........all kinds of wasteful.........and he's still too kind to some of his own players in restructure deals.........but even if only out of necessity he's been a lot sharper with the pencil in signing key players and adding talent from other teams now that he has less cap room to work with.    He's done a 150 if not a full 180.

 

People really don't seem to understand that $7.2M for any RB in 2022 is a TON..........let alone a guy who has been useless for the past two years.

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8 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:


So - you are proposing they trade assets for a one-year $7m rental running back who is coming off a worse year than Singletary, and then let him walk if he performs really well???

 

Sorry this is Crazy Town.

 

It's a secret government plot to drive you and all the reasonable Bills fans crazy.  I'm tellin' ya! :lol:

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2 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

It's a secret government plot to drive you and all the reasonable Bills fans crazy.  I'm tellin' ya! :lol:

 

It really might come down to "the heart wants what it wants".

 

No matter how much data illustrates that individual RB play is not a key factor in team success.............they.......just.........can't........resist.......wanting to use the most irrational means and capital to attain their favorite RB's.

 

This RB infatuation always lingers under the surface but the further people get away from the actual season...........when it's mostly clear you don't want a Josh Allen having the ball taken out of his hands for ANY RB who ever lived.........the more they start playing "football on paper in the minds".............suddenly if they had Nick Chubb instead of Devin Singletary the team could score 8 TD's every 7 possessions.

 

By spring it's utter fantasy........and it's not just them runnin' bax.........they've talked themselves into Trent Edwards being able to run a no huddle offense and all we need now is a big run stuffing DT opposite a stud RB and the Bills will be "unstoppable".

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59 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It really might come down to "the heart wants what it wants".

 

No matter how much data illustrates that individual RB play is not a key factor in team success.............they.......just.........can't........resist.......wanting to use the most irrational means and capital to attain their favorite RB's.

 

This RB infatuation always lingers under the surface but the further people get away from the actual season...........when it's mostly clear you don't want a Josh Allen having the ball taken out of his hands for ANY RB who ever lived.........the more they start playing "football on paper in the minds".............suddenly if they had Nick Chubb instead of Devin Singletary the team could score 8 TD's every 7 possessions.

 

By spring it's utter fantasy........and it's not just them runnin' bax.........they've talked themselves into Trent Edwards being able to run a no huddle offense and all we need now is a big run stuffing DT opposite a stud RB and the Bills will be "unstoppable".


Utter fantasy is right - it’s the fantasy football effect on fandom.

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