2022 Offseason Primer Position Group: Secondary

[MAJBobby]

18 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

 

Thanks for doing these again. IIRC last year you went into more detail with respect to FA and possible scenarios in each position group.

 

There is one thing I don't get - when you talk about Jaquan Johnson as potential cut candidate due to savings. That sounds weird to me. I don't think you "save" anything when you cut someone making less than a million. You need to replace that guy. Cutting him does not help our cap situation at all. If anything, we NEED to keep guys like him. There is no point in cutting him, unless we sign someone better for same price (which is very unlikely imo), or if we plan to upgrade the position (which doesn't make sense to me since he is a backup who almost never sees the field). I am really confused.

I am getting to them a little early to try and get everyone ready for UFA and such.  I will edit them and add more detail as the season ends.  I am sure that these will get more detailed.  Reason I am talking cutting is there is a savings albiet a smaller one.  There are bigger fish to fry for the savings.  For example a way to lower the Cap in the Secondary group is to Convert Tres 9.95 base into signing bonus.  However I must say kicking the can down the road on an injured player isnt particularly something I would advocate the Bills to do.  Issue with the Secondary is they are good and specially at Safety still good but older.  there really isn't much we can do here, example trading out a Poyer or Hyde for a UFA does save cap, though you might get younger.  The issue still remains three highly paid Starters in terms of Cap.  

 

Only place I really see movement in this group and LBers is Drafting a CB2.  Though I do think Dane Jackson gets first crack.  You will see more scenarios soon enough in DL.  As I have done more work on the DL in terms of both UFA and Draft.  Stick with me they will get better as I get into the position groups I expect movements in.

[TPS]

I enjoy your write-ups as they help in the doldrums of the off season.

 

I think we all suffer from be "our own worst critics" when it comes to the Bills.  Regardless of schedule and QBs played, this secondary and D was ranked statistically near the top, and safeties (P&H) always receive praise from his holiness BB.  I agree with another poster, I think you're being overly critical of Poyer. Unless you have access to the all-22, it's hard to evaluate if he's slipping or not?  I think the team D, and the Pass D in particular, are evidence that P&H had outstanding years. 

The other point I would disagree with is your assessment of J. Johnson.  What little we have seen, I think he's done well. He also represents a significant investment in their system, so I think he's much more valuable to the Bills than to other teams (though I wouldn't be surprised if someone takes a chance on him like the Bills did with Poyer).   I don't know enough about him, but I have seen flashes.  I prefer to trust Beane and McD on what they do here.

 

I think Levi is more a product of their system and would not pay the projected market value. It will be interesting to see what he commands in the market?  Since they most likely won't retain him, I think there's a good chance the Bills draft 2 CBs, one early and one in the mid-rounds. 

 

Thanks for your efforts and looking forward to the remainder.

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

From strictly a numbers standpoint, you can’t have 2 safeties making $10m each, a CB making $17m, a slot CB making $7.5m, Milano making $11m, and now Edmunds making $13m and then Wallace making $9m.  That’d be $90m on your back 7 starters.  At some point you gotta get younger and cheaper back there.  

Well this will be the year we get younger and cheaper. Replace Levi and that 9M with a rookie 1st round CB2 like Booth.  Or I can see them trading Edmunds for an impact corner or front 4 player. White, Milano and Taron are going nowhere. If Poyer doesn't restructure a team friendly extension,  he'll probably be gone after this upcoming season. Neal sticks around on a sub 2M deal. Guys like Cam, Jaquan are probably gone. 

Dane has earned his spot for the time being.

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, TPS said:

I enjoy your write-ups as they help in the doldrums of the off season.

 

I think we all suffer from be "our own worst critics" when it comes to the Bills.  Regardless of schedule and QBs played, this secondary and D was ranked statistically near the top, and safeties (P&H) always receive praise from his holiness BB.  I agree with another poster, I think you're being overly critical of Poyer. Unless you have access to the all-22, it's hard to evaluate if he's slipping or not?  I think the team D, and the Pass D in particular, are evidence that P&H had outstanding years. 

The other point I would disagree with is your assessment of J. Johnson.  What little we have seen, I think he's done well. He also represents a significant investment in their system, so I think he's much more valuable to the Bills than to other teams (though I wouldn't be surprised if someone takes a chance on him like the Bills did with Poyer).   I don't know enough about him, but I have seen flashes.  I prefer to trust Beane and McD on what they do here.

 

I think Levi is more a product of their system and would not pay the projected market value. It will be interesting to see what he commands in the market?  Since they most likely won't retain him, I think there's a good chance the Bills draft 2 CBs, one early and one in the mid-rounds. 

 

Thanks for your efforts and looking forward to the remainder.

I can understand that, but also he is in the last year of his deal.  And IMO has not earned another, that can production can be replaced with a Rookie Contract actually, specially if you are not going to move one of your 10M AAV safeties.  I could see them maybe restructuring one of those safeties to free up space.  Same with Tre.  But I do have to admit this is a little harder to write than I have in previous years when you are able to point to at last half the roster that should not be employed. LMAO

 

[wagne591]

Watch Storm Duck...Great Name but has the build that McBeane and Co. love 6'5" corner 4.38 40 he would be a 3rd rounder or later.....

[Maine-iac]

Wallace plus a draft pick would provide great coverage at the CB position plus on a rookie contract and an incentive and back loaded contract for Walace you could not only afford it but move on from Wallace in a year or two with a trade if need be  At least for the most part the money we are spending in the secondary is bringing production.  There are far less productive players making as much if not more than what Wallace would probably command.

[atlbillsfan1975]

No way Wallace is coming back. Some team with more cap room than sense will sign him and get a very average player who benefited from longevity in a system that covered up his lack of athleticism. I think the Bills finally stopped trying to blitz with Levi because he was always a step late. McD just got him paid like Josh Norman when he left Carolina. 

[RyanC883]

you are correct, we do need to plan for the post Poyer/Hyde days.  Also hard to be paying them both.  Not sure what Poyer fetches as a trade, and I think him and Hyde were the only 2 consistent D players all year (with White, until he was injured).  

 

Great writeup on Wallace.  He is better than most think, and unfortunately will likely be gone unless we can somehow backload a contract for him expecting the cap to rise in coming years.  I hate the idea that he leaves, because that forces us to get one in FA we may not like as much or draft one.  I don't like having obvious holes. 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

No way Wallace is coming back. Some team with more cap room than sense will sign him and get a very average player who benefited from longevity in a system that covered up his lack of athleticism. I think the Bills finally stopped trying to blitz with Levi because he was always a step late. McD just got him paid like Josh Norman when he left Carolina. 

Perfect assessment.....

[Richard Noggin]

My only disagreement is with your assessment of the depth at S. I think Johnson, and especially Hamlin (as you've noted) have earned on-field roles. Johnson is the punt team "protector," which is right behind the gunners in terms of value/impact. And Hamlin was seeing the field on D late in the season, which ain't easy to do given the guys in front of him on the depth chart. 

 

So I think one of those two young guys is in line to replace one of the two established vets as soon as 2023. Most likely Hamlin (and I don't know which guy he replaces). It COULD happen this year, but that isn't how this regime has handled roster decisions to date (moving on from core guys VERY pre-emptively). At some point you'd guess McBeane will have to stop overvaluing experience and leadership in order to keep the cap in good shape, but I'm thinking 2022 is too soon for their beloved safeties. 

 

Weren't Hyde and Poyer McD's first signings (assuming Whaley wasn't exactly in charge at that point)? 

[GunnerBill]

16 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Poyers play was not good (IMO), with the exception of the picks, and those flash stats get his post season accolades.  Also reason I think Johnson was passed over is Hamlin as a rookie was taking the field more than he was.  And when looking for shrewd CAP moves, he would be one of them.  I will admit he is a high snap count ST player.  Issue becomes when you are paying your QB you cannot have 4 Gunners only that are paid in the millions.  

 

One other thing to note.  

 

With the money tied into the secondary I think it is money in money out on them.  So if you want a UFA Top CB than you lose one of your 10M safeties.  Otherwise this group is addressed in the draft IMO

 

I think you are wrong on Poyer. He was outstanding. 

 

On Jaquan Johnson he is not primarily a gunner. He has played on coverage units but his main special teams role was personal protector on punt team. But for him in that role Matt Haack would have had more than 1 blocked. 

 

I'm also not sure what the basis for thinking Hamlin has passed him in the pecking order is? Johnson played double the snaps and when Poyer missed the Houston game and they needed someone to start Jaquan played 100% of the defensive snaps. Hamlin was on the inactive gameday list as late as week 14. I think Johnson remains firmly the #3 and Hamlin the #4. Both are still cheap as chips depth on rookie deals and I expect both back.

 

 

[Mat68]

On 2/7/2022 at 11:01 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

I have always liked Levi but its time to let him walk. Should net a 5th or maybe even a 4th round comp pick. Let Neal go to and he will help them stay with a net loss of players for the comp pick calculator.

 

My plan: 

1. Extend both Poyer and Hyde to create some cap space. Both players are getting old but they have been relatively healthy and as evidenced by the INT against the Pats, Hyde has not lost a step. Keep this tandem together for one more year.

2. Draft CB#2 in the first round. 

3. Draft safety in round 4-6

4. Dumpster dive a veteran minimum CB that can either back up nickel or play some safety in a pinch 

 

I dont think you kick the can on  both 30 plus safeties.   The cap gets smaller and smaller each year with Allens deal.  I sit pat at safety.  Go Cb at 25.  Let Wallace walk.  Need a future #1  to hedge against tres injury.   Ability to man up at 3 spots with Johnson, White and rookie will be important.   

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

I dont think you kick the can on  both 30 plus safeties.   The cap gets smaller and smaller each year with Allens deal.  I sit pat at safety.  Go Cb at 25.  Let Wallace walk.  Need a future #1  to hedge against tres injury.   Ability to man up at 3 spots with Johnson, White and rookie will be important.   

We mostly agree.

The total cap is likely to increase as well. 

You have to be in win now mode like LA. I dont care about cap issues in 2024. Beane needs to do whatever he can to create some room this year to improve the roster for 2022.  They can't address all the issues in the draft. There are other ways to deal with the cap. Guys like Morse, Williams, Addison and others will come off the books in the near future. And stop wasting money on special team players. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On 2/7/2022 at 6:07 PM, atlbillsfan1975 said:

No way Wallace is coming back. Some team with more cap room than sense will sign him and get a very average player who benefited from longevity in a system that covered up his lack of athleticism. I think the Bills finally stopped trying to blitz with Levi because he was always a step late. McD just got him paid like Josh Norman when he left Carolina. 

I agree he is average and some team will overpay for him. Most teams don't have a star CB #1 and an average #2. He will be harder to replace than we think, but you can't pay him what others will. You need to save money somewhere. Yes a rookie #1 will cost more than Wallace did last year but not nearly as much as Wallace will earn in 2022.