Bills ability to draft and develop D linemen

[Comebackkid]

6 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm going to toss out several ideas here.

 

1.  I think the Bills share some of your concern for development, which is why they gently pushed Teerlinck out the door in a lateral move  to V. Tech, and hired Eric Washington to coach DL when Riverboat Ron got the sack in Carolina and the new regime didn't want him.  That was in 2020.

 

2. Beane, in general, seems to have a draft tendency to take for high ceiling, athletic guys who, for one or another reason (maybe the level of competition they played against), are going to need more development time.  Ed Oliver (from Houston), Harrison Phillips (from Stanford) and Greg Rousseau (from Miami, but really only 1 year of playing in college) are all examples of this.

 

I understand, in part - if you're a good team and drafting late, you need a strategy to pull in talent above your position.  One strategy is to take guys who fall in the draft because of medical or character issues.  This is what the Chiefs do.  Another strategy is to take guys who are under-valued because they haven't shown enough in college, but you scout carefully and trust your scouting and think you have the goods.  That's what Beane seems to like to do, but the down side is that it may mean that you're developing talent for another team to reap in FA. 

 

Example: we draft Harry, he takes 4 seasons to start playing at a high level for {reasons}, so we get 1 or 1.5 good seasons out of him and then he hits FA and we have to make a decision whether to keep him, or let another team hire him away?

 

Part of why Phillips took a long time to come on, of course, is all the injuries - ACL in his 2nd season 2019, just as he was starting to show something

really wasn't 100% back at the start of 2020.  He tore it at the end of September, had surgery in October, and it's generally regarded as a 9-12 month recovery.  Then of course the Bills facility closed down in spring 2020 with Covid so he had to go home and that must have hindered his recovery not to have all the technology and the hands-on from trainers.  Then he partially tore his PCL (I think) this training camp and played through it.  This injury history is a big concern.  I think he may be undersized and that makes him injury prone.

 

Oliver may be another example.  He's really come on this season.  Assuming we get another strong season from him next year, we get 2 good years out of him before his 5th year option hits.

 

3. McDermott's committment to DL rotation, seems to mean we need to have 8 or 9 solid players who are of necessity, lesser talents - instead of 2 stars and a bunch of Jags.  Now most teams do rotate DL, but it's pretty typical to have a guy like Trey Hendrickson or Chris Jones play close to 70% of the snaps instead of 50%. 

 

That's a blessing and a curse.  It means we're not going to fall apart defensively if our "star" gets injured, but it also means we're not going to be able to match teams at the highest level as well.

 

4. Star IMHO (others may differ) was brought in and given a big contract for one reason - Culture change.  McDermott was given feedback "you have to be sure the guys buy into your system" when he was fired in Philly, and I think he took it to heart.  I think the Bills had a crap culture in the DL room when McDermott arrived, with "Mr Big Puff" leading the way and Adolphus Washington (our 2016 3rd round pick) following.  Kyle Williams and Jerry Hughes were good culture guys of course, as well as Zo in that hybrid LB/DE role, but McDermott only had Kyle for 1 year.   Dareus was kicked out the door mid-season in 2017 and McDermott wanted a true model for the "selfless" DT who grinds away and sets the rest of the line up for success. 

 

That's the reason Star got the Big Bucks - not because he was a literal "star" player, but because McDermott felt he epitomized the culture he wanted to build.

 

5. Overall, McDermott/Frazier/Beane seem to favor smaller, athletic linemen who can win based on "motor" over big, fat bodies who can crush you.  Again - that's a blessing and a curse.  He doesn't have guys who are smaller than Hendrickson or Chris Jones - but he also doesn't have guys who get it done like they do (see point 3)

 

 

 

 

 

while that sounds exactly like what the Bills do, along with like you said...taking Boom or bust players.  It does seem counter productive.  Seems like you want players that can impact those 4 years and then you trade for draft picks and start over.  isnt this more like what NE. has always done?.   Also it seems like it would work better if your D line is already dominate and you dont need those players to produce anytime soon.  

thanks for the post ..very well thought out and accurate. 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

I wonder though...

 

Is there talent here that is being underutilized?

 

Our OL was bad all season, then Bates, a guy who has been here for a while, steps in and plays very well. Boettger was also doing well once he finally got a shot before getting hurt. The best guys were not playing for whatever reason. 

 

So part of me wonders if there is talent being buried on the bench. 

 

I don't think the DL is in the same situation as Bates. 

 

The OL doesn't typically rotate.  So Feliciano got all the snaps, until he was injured and Boettger got all the snaps, until he was injured and Bates got all the snaps

 

In contrast, except for Bryan Cox Jr who was on IR, all of the DL saw the field at one point or another

DE

Addison 45% (17 games)

Basham 39% (8 games)

Epenesa 37% (14 games)

Hughes 52% (17 games)

Obada 35% (10 games)

Rousseau 49% (17 games)

 

DL

Ankou 30% (PS, 5 games, signed by Tennessee)

Bryant 23% (PS, 2 games)
Butler 44% (10 games)

Lotulelei 47% (11 games)

Oliver 58% (17 games)

Phillips 55% (14 games)

Zimmer 43% (IR after 6 games)

 

Obviously some saw the field more than others, but except for the PS guys and the guys on IR, they all saw significant snaps in at least half the games.

 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

9 hours ago, Comebackkid said:

I've been thinking about this for a while and dont remember much in the way of a direct post bringing this up.   

I'll follow that statement up with saying i have a short memory at times as well.

 

The Bills it seems have always  been great at developing CB's.   when McDermott took over  we changed from man to mostly zone.   Brought in 

Trey with a high draft pick and knocked it out of the park. then have been able to develop jags to step in and play very well.

 

We jump to the D line and both in drafting and developing it seems to me we dont have the same ability.

In four years not one home run draft pick.   Ed has been playing well along with Harrison but both took a long time to develop.   Groot might be 

the top pick to hit the ground running and I still wouldnt call him a home run hit.   

 

Then we have the guys like star that were brought in to plug holes but seemed to me their contracts were pretty high for the talent and play level they provided.

 

So, whats your guys consensus on this?....   Is this a real problem?   If so how do we fix it/Improve?

 

 

 

I'd say it's still too early to tell with Epenesa only being in season 2 and kind of wasting him as a LB in season 1, Groot had a solid season in rotation with 4.5 sacks, Basham had even less time but showed up at times. Oliver I thought played his best season to date and I'm not much of a Harrison Phillips fan, I think the other side of Oliver needs an upgrade.

[harryS]

If what we're good at is drafting and developing DBs, why not use picks on DBs until we've produced our own Legion of Boom instead of de-emphasizing CB2, for example?

 

The Bengals beat KC with coverage.

[Nitro]

Time will tell with these young guys.   Groot is 21, Epenesa is 23, Oliver and Basham are 24.  They have time to learn and grow before hitting their physical prime.   I expect a better performance from this group next year. 

[LABILLBACKER]

30 minutes ago, harryS said:

If what we're good at is drafting and developing DBs, why not use picks on DBs until we've produced our own Legion of Boom instead of de-emphasizing CB2, for example?

 

The Bengals beat KC with coverage.

I think next year v KC you're going to see us rush 3 and drop 8 during portions of the game. And it wouldn't shock me to see our 1st round pick be CB2.

[UConn James]

12 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I think next year v KC you're going to see us rush 3 and drop 8 during portions of the game. And it wouldn't shock me to see our 1st round pick be CB2.

Yeah, it truly seemed like we could’ve blitzed all 11 and KC’s Oline would’ve held up for 5 seconds and Mahomes stepping around would’ve bought him another 5. People talk about pressure like it means anything in the NFL / against the elite QBs. Pressure doesn’t mean poop. Against any good team or any good QB, we never get home. Hughes is always this ][ close to getting a sack but can’t seal the deal.

 

Wouldn’t shed any tears if Star were released and we draft a big DT early. Georgia’s Davis is likely gone by our slot but, damn that kid can do it all.

[Victory Formation]

10 hours ago, Comebackkid said:

I've been thinking about this for a while and dont remember much in the way of a direct post bringing this up.   

I'll follow that statement up with saying i have a short memory at times as well.

 

The Bills it seems have always  been great at developing CB's.   when McDermott took over  we changed from man to mostly zone.   Brought in 

Trey with a high draft pick and knocked it out of the park. then have been able to develop jags to step in and play very well.

 

We jump to the D line and both in drafting and developing it seems to me we dont have the same ability.

In four years not one home run draft pick.   Ed has been playing well along with Harrison but both took a long time to develop.   Groot might be 

the top pick to hit the ground running and I still wouldnt call him a home run hit.   

 

Then we have the guys like star that were brought in to plug holes but seemed to me their contracts were pretty high for the talent and play level they provided.

 

So, whats your guys consensus on this?....   Is this a real problem?   If so how do we fix it/Improve?

 

 

I truly think that it’s coaching to blame here. I do think that the addition of Eric Washington has taken away from the sting though. Oliver has improved under him and given time, I think that Boogie and Rousseau will come along as well (but I’m not so sure about Epenesa).

 

Part of the problem is we’re playing these soft vanilla ice cream defenses where our back seven are sitting a good 5-10yds off of the ball. I understand that concept if we’re in obvious passing situations, but why we’re not blitzing Edmunds and Milano against power run teams is mystifying to me. No wonder these guys never make any TFL.
 

Also, speaking of Rousseau, I disagree strongly with the way he’s being used. He is 6’6 250lbs, he is as strong as an ox and he’s very fast too, but why aren’t we blitzing him from the SLB when we play in our base 4-3? Especially when we’re going up against the Derrick Henry’s of the world. He should be used like the way the Bucs use Shaquille Barrett. I would argue that Rousseau could even drop in coverage given his weight stays the same and he really works at it.

 

I also rebuke the frequency in which we play in zone coverage. I get it, it masques the deficiencies of our secondary, mainly at corner but at some point you have to play in man so we can put an extra safety in the box against run teams. They don’t want to give up the big play, I get it. Death by one cut or a thousand cuts? But ultimately you have to allow your players to make plays or at least mix it up and play some good situational football.

[Aussie Joe]

3 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

I truly think that it’s coaching to blame here. I do think that the addition of Eric Washington has taken away from the sting though. Oliver has improved under him and given time, I think that Boogie and Rousseau will come along as well (but I’m not so sure about Epenesa).

 

 

 

So you still pretty high on Boogie?

 

Was there anything you have seen this year from him? Considering he did 4 years at college ( opposed to 2 from Rosseau..) I would have liked to have seen more from him..

[strive_for_five_guy]

I ask this without necessarily appreciating how long it normally takes for D-Lineman to develop, but is it fair to expect rookie and 2nd year guys to have a huge impacts?  Seems like positions where strength and skill make a huge difference, traits that generally take time to develop.

[Victory Formation]

20 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

So you still pretty high on Boogie?

 

Was there anything you have seen this year from him? Considering he did 4 years at college ( opposed to 2 from Rosseau..) I would have liked to have seen more from him..

Including the playoffs, Boogie had 3.5 sacks opposed to Rousseau’s 4.0. The only difference is Boogie didn’t get one single start nor did he dress for half of the season.

 

I’m not going to mince words here, I like both. I was very high on Boogie in the draft, I had a first round grade on him (for those that care), Rousseau I was not so high on, but I’ve seen enough at this point to admit that I was wrong. 
 

Rousseau in my mind is an ideal fit at OLB in the 3-4 and he would probably be a star in such a position. So I see him as kind of a DE/LB hybrid, even in our scheme, at least in our base 4-3 defense which we never run. I do think he has value playing OLB at least in zone coverage or as a blitzer or even as an enforcer in terms of stopping the power run RBs in the league.

 

Boogie in my mind is a pure DE, he can play either side. He holds the point of attack very well, has a nice motor and spin move and can set the edge. I would like to see him work on his swim move more and in my mind he could be an 8-10 sack per year kind of guy. I think the biggest thing about Boogie is he never gives up, he’s like the energizer bunny and fights through ‘till the end, even after he gets beat, his second effort causes him to make plays. Basically he’s an effort guy and has a decent yet limited skill set. I think he will be a starter for us long term given his effort stays the same.

[Comebackkid]

1 hour ago, harryS said:

If what we're good at is drafting and developing DBs, why not use picks on DBs until we've produced our own Legion of Boom instead of de-emphasizing CB2, for example?

 

The Bengals beat KC with coverage.

seems like they think they can develop a jag into a player thats "good enough"  Part of that may be they feel they have more important holes to address other places.

1 hour ago, Nitro said:

Time will tell with these young guys.   Groot is 21, Epenesa is 23, Oliver and Basham are 24.  They have time to learn and grow before hitting their physical prime.   I expect a better performance from this group next year. 

and they could all turn out to be great players.   My point was, in 4 years we havent had one player that came in first year and even played better than expected on the D line.   Obviously not every d line player is going to come in and dominate the first year.   But you see players every season that just explode first year.   I would think in four years we could find one to at least exceed expectations in the first year.  

[Comebackkid]

1 hour ago, Victory Formation said:

I truly think that it’s coaching to blame here. I do think that the addition of Eric Washington has taken away from the sting though. Oliver has improved under him and given time, I think that Boogie and Rousseau will come along as well (but I’m not so sure about Epenesa).

 

Part of the problem is we’re playing these soft vanilla ice cream defenses where our back seven are sitting a good 5-10yds off of the ball. I understand that concept if we’re in obvious passing situations, but why we’re not blitzing Edmunds and Milano against power run teams is mystifying to me. No wonder these guys never make any TFL.
 

Also, speaking of Rousseau, I disagree strongly with the way he’s being used. He is 6’6 250lbs, he is as strong as an ox and he’s very fast too, but why aren’t we blitzing him from the SLB when we play in our base 4-3? Especially when we’re going up against the Derrick Henry’s of the world. He should be used like the way the Bucs use Shaquille Barrett. I would argue that Rousseau could even drop in coverage given his weight stays the same and he really works at it.

 

I also rebuke the frequency in which we play in zone coverage. I get it, it masques the deficiencies of our secondary, mainly at corner but at some point you have to play in man so we can put an extra safety in the box against run teams. They don’t want to give up the big play, I get it. Death by one cut or a thousand cuts? But ultimately you have to allow your players to make plays or at least mix it up and play some good situational football.

you have to think that either there is a drafting deficiency or a coaching deficiency.   something seems off.   

 

we are stuck with this safe zone defense that doesnt give up big plays but doesnt make big plays either.  other than int's.  great against lesser teams, not so great about elite teams.   Stats look good on paper because its a steady defense over the course of a year.   

I read an article a while back where the author though buffalo should give up the safe D for one that may give up the occasional big play but an in turn make big plays when needed.   

[Brand J]

What I’d like to know is what DL players, under a McD scheme, have flourished? I know Phillips had 9 sacks before AZ signed him, but who has the highest?
When McD was DC in Carolina did they have any double digit sack players on the DL?

[Billzgobowlin]

I think they are good at drafting D line but developing takes a little longer than it should.  I do think Groot is going to be a 15 sack a year talent still not sure about AJ.  I do think it would be interesting to see Tremaine move to DE as some have suggested here but he would have to learn a whole new skillset

9 hours ago, JayBaller10 said:

What I’d like to know is what DL players, under a McD scheme, have flourished? I know Phillips had 9 sacks before AZ signed him, but who has the highest?
When McD was DC in Carolina did they have any double digit sack players on the DL?

I think part of that is the scheme where you sell out for the coverage and don't rush the passer as much with blitzing.  In fairness we don't have a gamechanger at DE yet like Von Miller or Alex Mack or TJ Watt

[CapeBreton]

21 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

I wonder though...

 

Is there talent here that is being underutilized?

 

Our OL was bad all season, then Bates, a guy who has been here for a while, steps in and plays very well. Boettger was also doing well once he finally got a shot before getting hurt. The best guys were not playing for whatever reason. 

 

So part of me wonders if there is talent being buried on the bench. 

 

From looking at snap percentages, seems like all of our defensive ends are playing around 40% a game (estimate). Hard for anyone to really shine when they are all just constantly rotating in but that seems to be our strategy. I’d love to see drafted guys like Rousseau, Bashem, Epenesa see more snaps next year. 

[Einstein's Dog]

14 hours ago, Comebackkid said:

while that sounds exactly like what the Bills do, along with like you said...taking Boom or bust players.  It does seem counter productive.  Seems like you want players that can impact those 4 years and then you trade for draft picks and start over.  isnt this more like what NE. has always done?.   Also it seems like it would work better if your D line is already dominate and you dont need those players to produce anytime soon.  

thanks for the post ..very well thought out and accurate. 

 

It's not counterproductive if you take the long term view.  You get and train a blossoming player and then sign him to big/market money a year before they are eligible to hit the free market.  Most players are agreeable to that, get good guaranteed money a year early and up front- at pretty much the market rate (but the market pretty much just goes continually up).

 

They will employ this move on Oliver next.  On offense, I expect to see this done with Knox.  

 

Plus the DL are expensive pieces - Butler/Murphy/Addison are all over $8M.  Just being able to get a player that allows those players to be jettisoned has an excellent financial benefit.  For comparison, spotrac estimates getting a starting RB such as Fournette or J Connor would be in the $5-6M range.

[billsfan89]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I think next year v KC you're going to see us rush 3 and drop 8 during portions of the game. And it wouldn't shock me to see our 1st round pick be CB2.

 

CB is definitely in play for the first three rounds. Personally I think it would be foolish to go CB in round 1 in general given how good the team has developed later round picks (Levi was undrafted, T. Johnson a 4th round pick and Dane a 6th round pick also Poyer wasn't exactly a high caliber player before coming here) but it might shake out that a CB is both a need (depending on if Levi resigns and if Tre is progressing from injury) and the BPA. I hope that this team is able to resign Levi and have the luxury of going O-line or DT in round 1 and then go DB in round 2 or 3 for depth.