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Dawson Knox - he improved greatly, but was it enough? 2022 is his contract year


Hapless Bills Fan

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This was spurred by comments I made in the Gronk thread

 

Knox improved greatly this season, but did he improve enough?

 

When you look at his productivity per game, it's an improvement, but a smaller improvement than one might like to see

 

In 2020, he had 40.5 snaps per game. 

In 2021, he had 61.1 snaps per game (87% of offensive snaps)

That's a 51% increase in snaps per game.

 

In 2020, he had 2.2 receptions per game

In 2021, he had 3.3 receptions per game

That's a 50% increase in receptions per game

 

In 2020, he gained 24 yards per game

In 2021, he gained 39 yards per game

That's a 63% increase in yards per game

 

But the  bottom line - while 587 yds is much better productivity than 287 yds last year, his productivity in the passing game improved only slightly relative to the increased number of snaps he saw. 

 

I don't have a good sense as to how often he was used in the passing game (or open) relative to how much he was asked to block.

 

He improved in other ways, of course:

 

His catch % improved markedly, from 54.5% to 69%

So did his yards per target from 6.5 to 8.3

 

His drops stayed constant, 3, which means as a percentage of targets, they improved from 9.1% to 5.6%

Most critically - last year he had 2 fumbles.  This year he did not fumble.

 

I'm not Joe Expert, but to my perception his blocking showed a big improvement this season, as did his route running to the point where they actually were able to line him up as a receiver.  His physicality as a route runner improved markedly, as well.

 

How was he relative to other TE across the league?  I had to pull data from PFR and sort it myself to get this. 

 

Among TE, Knox was:

13th for Y/G with 39

14th for Y/Tgt with 8.3

15th for Y/R with 12

14th for 1D with 41

28th in Catch% (of TE with more than 25 targets) at 69%

Tied for 1st in TD with 9 (4 way tie)

 

So except in TDs, kind of middling

 

Obviously Knox has developed into a competent NFL TE who shows flashes of better.  And some of the above comparison is unfair, as it lumps him in with TE who are primarily WR while Knox is asked to block quite a bit.

 

This is Knox's contract year, and while I think he's worth the $2.7M he'll count against the cap in 2022, does his production merit a big payday?  Being the #12-18 TE would slot him in currently for an AAV around $6.5-8M AAV, or a contract between $16M and $29M

 

IMHO, this is reason to draft a young TE in what is supposed to be a deep TE draft class, because while Knox has improved, it seems to me that he has not yet become that Star TE we were hoping to draft and develop.  He has not become Allen's Kelce or Kittle or Andrews, or even Goeddert or Waller.  He is a good young TE, though.

 

Thoughts?

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I guess short answer for me is Yes.  I think he improved enough this season to me  where other teams now  need to account for him. Keep him around at a fair contract.. he shouldn’t be paid anywhere near the top but I’m hesitant to start over with a Rookie.. I think we need to go all in for a Super Bowl run like now.  Unless there is sure upgrade we can draft late (i do not know enough about the college guys to make that assertion)
 

I’d like us to focus on other areas to improve..

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This was spurred by comments I made in the Gronk thread

 

Knox improved greatly this season, but did he improve enough?

 

When you look at his productivity per game, it's an improvement, but a smaller improvement than one might like to see

 

In 2020, he had 40.5 snaps per game. 

In 2021, he had 61.1 snaps per game (87% of offensive snaps)

That's a 51% increase in snaps per game.

 

In 2020, he had 2.2 receptions per game

In 2021, he had 3.3 receptions per game

That's a 50% increase in receptions per game

 

In 2020, he gained 24 yards per game

In 2021, he gained 39 yards per game

That's a 63% increase in yards per game

 

But the  bottom line - while 587 yds is much better productivity than 287 yds last year, his productivity in the passing game improved only slightly relative to the increased number of snaps he saw. 

 

I don't have a good sense as to how often he was used in the passing game (or open) relative to how much he was asked to block.

 

He improved in other ways, of course:

 

His catch % improved markedly, from 54.5% to 69%

So did his yards per target from 6.5 to 8.3

 

His drops stayed constant, 3, which means as a percentage of targets, they improved from 9.1% to 5.6%

Most critically - last year he had 2 fumbles.  This year he did not fumble.

 

I'm not Joe Expert, but to my perception his blocking showed a big improvement this season, as did his route running to the point where they actually were able to line him up as a receiver.  His physicality as a route runner improved markedly, as well.

 

How was he relative to other TE across the league?  I had to pull data from PFR and sort it myself to get this. 

 

Among TE, Knox was:

13th for Y/G with 39

14th for Y/Tgt with 8.3

15th for Y/R with 12

14th for 1D with 41

28th in Catch% (of TE with more than 25 targets) at 69%

Tied for 1st in TD with 9 (4 way tie)

 

So except in TDs, kind of middling

 

Obviously Knox has developed into a competent NFL TE who shows flashes of better.  And some of the above comparison is unfair, as it lumps him in with TE who are primarily WR while Knox is asked to block quite a bit.

 

This is Knox's contract year, and while I think he's worth the $2.7M he'll count against the cap in 2022, does his production merit a big payday?  Being the #12-18 TE would slot him in currently for an AAV around $6.5-8M AAV, or a contract between $16M and $29M

 

IMHO, this is reason to draft a young TE in what is supposed to be a deep TE draft class, because while Knox has improved, it seems to me that he has not yet become that Star TE we were hoping to draft and develop.  He has not become Allen's Kelce or Kittle or Andrews, or even Goeddert or Waller.  He is a good young TE, though.

 

Thoughts?

Too many other holes to fill right now,  he showed enough this past season that I would not invest any high draft pick on a TE. Maybe get a little stronger but he looks like he can be a player we can count on for years to come.

Edited by Niagara Dude
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4 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Dawson Knox is the Diontae Thompson of TEs. Excellent athleticism, but will have a boneheaded play or easy drop every once in while. Would I be comfortable giving that $8M/yr? No. 


Do you watch other TE’s?   Even Kittle, Kelce etc have drops.  Knox drastically improved that this year.  TE’s just aren’t as sure-handed all the time as WR’s.  
 

Diontae Johnson has games where he’s legitimately a liability.  Knox is nowhere close to that.  
 

Yes, keep Knox.  He’s a Top 10 TE, and is still improving. 
 

 

Edited by SCBills
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Just now, SCBills said:


Do you watch other TE’s?   Even Kittle, Kelce etc have drops.  Knox drastically improved that this year.  TE’s just aren’t as sure-handed all the time as WR’s.  
 

Diontae Johnson has games where he’s legitimately a liability.  Knox is nowhere close to that.  
 

Yes, keep Knox.  He’s a Top 10 TE, and is still improving. 
 

 

Knox has trended upwards every year, but the question was would I feel comfortable paying what I’ve seen thus far $8M/yr and that answer is no. I like Knox, I think he works hard and again, has great athleticism, but you can’t put his name in the same sentence as a Kittle or Kelce. I know every player in the league drops passes, that’s not in doubt. It’s the types of drops that matter and how that affects the game.

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Josh and him have really grown into each other. They’re seeing the field properly now and we’re getting good/great production from a TE in an offense that doesn’t necessarily run through TEs like SF’s or LV’s. 
 

Hell yeah I’m keeping him. Not for top 5 or top 3 TE money, but they’d be dumb not to make him a fair market offer to keep him. 

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Yeah,  I think its enough.  The mid-season broken hand didn't do him any favors,   but I think he's reached the point where he's one of the better players in the league at the position and may still improve from there.  He's by far the best player they've had in that spot in the last 20 years. 

Edited by Brandon
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20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

This was spurred by comments I made in the Gronk thread

 

Knox improved greatly this season, but did he improve enough?

 

When you look at his productivity per game, it's an improvement, but a smaller improvement than one might like to see

 

In 2020, he had 40.5 snaps per game. 

In 2021, he had 61.1 snaps per game (87% of offensive snaps)

That's a 51% increase in snaps per game.

 

In 2020, he had 2.2 receptions per game

In 2021, he had 3.3 receptions per game

That's a 50% increase in receptions per game

 

In 2020, he gained 24 yards per game

In 2021, he gained 39 yards per game

That's a 63% increase in yards per game

 

But the  bottom line - while 587 yds is much better productivity than 287 yds last year, his productivity in the passing game improved only slightly relative to the increased number of snaps he saw. 

 

I don't have a good sense as to how often he was used in the passing game (or open) relative to how much he was asked to block.

 

He improved in other ways, of course:

 

His catch % improved markedly, from 54.5% to 69%

So did his yards per target from 6.5 to 8.3

 

His drops stayed constant, 3, which means as a percentage of targets, they improved from 9.1% to 5.6%

Most critically - last year he had 2 fumbles.  This year he did not fumble.

 

I'm not Joe Expert, but to my perception his blocking showed a big improvement this season, as did his route running to the point where they actually were able to line him up as a receiver.  His physicality as a route runner improved markedly, as well.

 

How was he relative to other TE across the league?  I had to pull data from PFR and sort it myself to get this. 

 

Among TE, Knox was:

13th for Y/G with 39

14th for Y/Tgt with 8.3

15th for Y/R with 12

14th for 1D with 41

28th in Catch% (of TE with more than 25 targets) at 69%

Tied for 1st in TD with 9 (4 way tie)

 

So except in TDs, kind of middling

 

Obviously Knox has developed into a competent NFL TE who shows flashes of better.  And some of the above comparison is unfair, as it lumps him in with TE who are primarily WR while Knox is asked to block quite a bit.

 

This is Knox's contract year, and while I think he's worth the $2.7M he'll count against the cap in 2022, does his production merit a big payday?  Being the #12-18 TE would slot him in currently for an AAV around $6.5-8M AAV, or a contract between $16M and $29M

 

IMHO, this is reason to draft a young TE in what is supposed to be a deep TE draft class, because while Knox has improved, it seems to me that he has not yet become that Star TE we were hoping to draft and develop.  He has not become Allen's Kelce or Kittle or Andrews, or even Goeddert or Waller.  He is a good young TE, though.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

I don't see Knox and the Bills in a position to agree to a contract in the range you are talking about............the Bills would probably take that gladly but Knox is going to be seeking in excess of $10M per year, IMO.    He and his agent would argue that his arrow is going up and that he is one of the fastest TE's in the league.

 

I like the idea of signing Gronk and using Knox more as the Y receiver and seeing how he handles that...........if returns aren't great early they could switch them around and work on getting Gronk more free releases from the slot.

 

Also agree on drafting a TE either way.........this is a good draft for them and they might find that Knox doesn't take the next step to becoming a top 10 TE and being worth a $10M-$15M aav.

Edited by BADOLBILZ
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I don't know if Dawson is worth the 8-9M contract range, but his tds and catch% was very encouraging. My bigger concern is we can't keep going into seasons with just 1 TE.  As much as I'd love to land Gesicki,  he's going to be expensive. We need a good blocking TE like Lee who can catch the ball.  No more fullbacks pretending to be TE's like Gilly.

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9 minutes ago, SCBills said:


Do you watch other TE’s?   Even Kittle, Kelce etc have drops.  Knox drastically improved that this year.  TE’s just aren’t as sure-handed all the time as WR’s.  
 

Diontae Johnson has games where he’s legitimately a liability.  Knox is nowhere close to that.  
 

Yes, keep Knox.  He’s a Top 10 TE, and is still improving. 
 

 

I don’t think Knox is a top 10 tight end

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He was 12th in yards and 1st in TDs per game among TEs.  We'll see but it appears he's trending in the right direction.  Whether they can keep him for a reasonable salary is another question since there's always someone out there to overpay.

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Couldn’t put him above any of these players: Kelce, Kittle, Pitts, Waller, Hockenson, Engram, Gesicki, Andrews, Ertz, and Fant.

 

This group is arguable: Goedert, Hooper, Henry, Cook, Higbee, Knox?

 

I left off old man Gronk.

Edited by JayBaller10
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