Are we over-reacting to the 13 seconds?

[Bing Bong]

On 1/26/2022 at 1:56 PM, cv05 said:

• So I've heard the win probability thrown around that at the 13 second mark the chiefs had a 5%, 1 in 20, chance to win (according to ESPN)
• Assuming the game goes to overtime, before the coin flip, each team has a 50% chance to win (1 in 2)
• Ignoring the case where the chiefs win with a TD in regulation, a tie had a probability of about 10% ( (1/2)x(Tie Probability)= 1/20) 

 

The question - is getting upset about a 10% likely scenario (chiefs tie it in 13 seconds) really fair? It rains in LA 1 in 10 days 🤷‍♂️. Also, does the probability from ESPN (1 in 20) account for the state of the teams at that moment? Mahomes and Allen were having their way with tired defenses - maybe the likelihood of gaining ~40-45 yards in 12 seconds with 3 timeouts was actually pretty good, even better than 10%. I don't know - I think looking at it this way at least makes me feel a bit better.

 

I will out myself as being completely irrational over the last few days. I completely disagree with the defensive strategy, and was (to a lessor extent) against what happened with the kick. I have been just about as upset with McDermott as anyone. I had never been a huge fan (attributed team success to Allen, and McDermott more just getting in the way). But maybe we were up against more than we realized at that 13 second mark. I don't know - food for thought. 

I posted a chart of the win probability throughout the game afterwards and while the chart spiked up and down like crazy, the extremes of the probabilities were the lowest you'd ever see for other games in the same situations.

 

They knew the defenses were virtually traffic cones at that point better than we did.

 

But if you told me there was a remote chance I would have laughed. Emotionally it just left me in shock for the rest of the game. It's hard to defend how easy it looked. Maybe some contested catches. 

 

Also we can pin McDermott for sure, but Andy Reid hanging onto those timeouts will never get credit around these parts.

Edited February 8, 2022 by FormerlyPT5P

[Success]

I mean, we saw coaches do mystifying things the entire playoffs.  KC blew a 21-3 lead at home.  The Rams basically blew a 27-3 lead.  Dallas & Green Bay played inexplicable games & strategies as the favorites in their losses.  The mighty Belichick got blown out and never even mustered so much as a token challenge.

 

Yes, our coaches blew it the last 13 seconds.  But 2nd guessing is part of the game - if they squib it and Hill takes it to the house, everyone is all "why didn't they just kick it in the endzone!"  The final D was bad, but it was an anomoly in an otherwise well-planned & well called game.

 

Edited February 8, 2022 by Success

[Nextmanup]

5 hours ago, Success said:

The final D was bad, but it was an anomoly in an otherwise well-planned & well called game.

 

It was?  Sounds like wishful thinking and a good bit of rationalization on your part...which is all too common around here.  I guess it makes you feel better.  

 

You realize they had 30 first downs, 370 yards of passing, 182 yards rushing, 552 yards of total offense and put 42 points on the board, right?

 

😂

[LABILLBACKER]

8 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I wrote a pretty long post.. I didn't go back and read to see if I wrote 95 or 90 percent 

 

Now if I would have said 95% and the second time I wrote 60% I'd be waffling.. I truly believe that they were starting at the 20 or 25 regardless of the kick 

 

The average pooch kick goes to about the 18-20 yard line... So a super high one is going to the 25.. you can fair catch that

 

A lower one is going to the 10-13.. I don't believe the kicking team will be able to get to the ball before it rolls in the end zone

 

Unless the returner let it go over his head and it takes a backwards bounce and stops rolling.. which is again possible but like I said not probable.. I have seen it happen I'm just being honest when I say the odds are unlikely 

 

You are right things go wrong

I've literally seen Bass do at least 10 pop up kickoffs this season. Almost all of them landed around the 10.  There's no way Hardman's letting that bounce into the endzone (assuming it even does that). He's either going to panic and call a fair catch or try to run it back. So no matter what argument you want to make on this critical play, Sean should have at least called for the short pop and alert his ST to cover the return. If he does let it go and it bounces in at least he tried.

[Manther]

On 1/26/2022 at 4:35 PM, BuffaloBaumer said:

If you don't care about Winning a Super Bowl, I guess that's overreacting. It was there and the coaches made one of the biggest mistakes in NFL history 

I think that comment is fair and warranted.  Over reacting, maybe.  BUT, I do NOT think so.  I understand all thoughts, but, we missed an amazing opportunity this year due to poor coaching in an extremely tight game. 

 

A side note, we would not have been in that position at the end of the game if we were more aggressive with offensive play calling in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.  KC could not stop us and we let them. 

 

The Bills staff continues to learn and make improvements every offseason.  Hopefully they do it again.  I Billieve they will!

[Greg S]

14 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

McDermott cost Buffalo a SuperBowl. There is no defending him. He either was directly responsible for the strategy or did nothing to stop Frazier.  The defense was never as good as the ranking but Allen won the game. McDermott lost it. Anything less than a SB appearance next season and he should be gone. I’d rather take my chances with a hot shot young coordinator than process guy that chokes in the moment.

I am still not over 13 seconds either and probably won't be even when next season is starting. Realistically McDermott isn't getting fired. Both he and Beane have turned this franchise around from the dark days of 17 straight years of no playoffs. Do you trust the Pegula's to find the right coach if they fire McDermott? I don't, just look at the Sabres as an example of how clueless they are. I think they just got lucky with the hiring of McBeane. Just like a broken clock is right twice of day type of thing.

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, Greg S said:

I think they just got lucky with the hiring of McBeane. Just like a broken clock is right twice of day type of thing.

 

Good GM and Head coaching hires are almost always lucky...like first round draft picks: They put as much research into it as they possibly can and they are still wrong more often than not.

[Dopey]

14 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

McDermott cost Buffalo a SuperBowl. There is no defending him. He either was directly responsible for the strategy or did nothing to stop Frazier.  The defense was never as good as the ranking but Allen won the game. McDermott lost it. Anything less than a SB appearance next season and he should be gone. I’d rather take my chances with a hot shot young coordinator than process guy that chokes in the moment.

You are really reaching here. There's no guarantee we would beat the Bengals. KC thought they were going too. Gotta be in it to win it. Hell, there's no guarantee we would win it if we made it to the super bowl. Statements like that are ridiculous.

 

[Greg S]

5 minutes ago, Dopey said:

You are really reaching here. There's no guarantee we would beat the Bengals. KC thought they were going too. Gotta be in it to win it. Hell, there's no guarantee we would win it if we made it to the super bowl. Statements like that are ridiculous.

 

 

I do think they would have beaten the Bengals at home. It would have been a tough game though as the Bengals offense would cause problems for the Bills defense. At home I think Allen would win a shootout with Burrow. The Rams would have been a very tough game. The Bills OL vs the Rams DL is not a good matchup. The Bills could beat the Rams but it would take one hell of an effort. Like the Bengals the Rams offense would also give the Bills defense fits.

[Dopey]

2 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

I do think they would have beaten the Bengals at home. It would have been a tough game though as the Bengals offense would cause problems for the Bills defense. At home I think Allen would win a shootout with Burrow. The Rams would have been a very tough game. The Bills OL vs the Rams DL is not a good matchup. The Bills could beat the Rams but it would take one hell of an effort. Like the Bengals the Rams offense would also give the Bills defense fits.

I would have favored the Rams, if we made it. That defensive line would dominate our o-line. Especially up the middle. With White out, Kupp and Odel vs our CBs isn't in our favor either. Cam Aikers  is back and running well. Love my Bills, but also realistic. My money would be put on the Rams. JMO.

[Greg S]

Just now, Dopey said:

I would have favored the Rams, if we made it. That defensive line would dominate our o-line. Especially up the middle. With White out, Kupp and Odel vs our CBs isn't in our favor either. Cam Aikers  is back and running well. Love my Bills, but also realistic. My money would be put on the Rams. JMO.

 

Agreed the Rams would have been favored. I do think the Bills would have gotten to the Super Bowl though if they held on for those 13 seconds. The Bills defense needs some work this offseason. They are only #1 when playing bad teams with bad QB's. 

[CincyBillsFan]

12 hours ago, Success said:

I mean, we saw coaches do mystifying things the entire playoffs.  KC blew a 21-3 lead at home.  The Rams basically blew a 27-3 lead.  Dallas & Green Bay played inexplicable games & strategies as the favorites in their losses.  The mighty Belichick got blown out and never even mustered so much as a token challenge.

 

Yes, our coaches blew it the last 13 seconds.  But 2nd guessing is part of the game - if they squib it and Hill takes it to the house, everyone is all "why didn't they just kick it in the endzone!"  The final D was bad, but it was an anomoly in an otherwise well-planned & well called game.

 

You make a great point.  You could also throw in the Titans bizarre decisions on their last offensive drive.

 

 

[Greg S]

Interesting similarities.

 

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

18 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

McDermott cost Buffalo a SuperBowl. There is no defending him. He either was directly responsible for the strategy or did nothing to stop Frazier.  The defense was never as good as the ranking but Allen won the game. McDermott lost it. Anything less than a SB appearance next season and he should be gone. I’d rather take my chances with a hot shot young coordinator than process guy that chokes in the moment.

No arguments here. We all fawn over McD and his process/culture. But when is he going to be accountable for his in game mistakes?  I'm so sick of people saying he'll "learn from his mistakes" and then he turns around and makes new ones. Levy was also a really nice guy and a players coach. But he too struggled with out strategizing his counterpart in the SB's.  If we waste the talents of Josh like the Angels have wasted Mike Trout, it will be a colossal fail on the leadership. 

[Greg S]

6 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

No arguments here. We all fawn over McD and his process/culture. But when is he going to be accountable for his in game mistakes?  I'm so sick of people saying he'll "learn from his mistakes" and then he turns around and makes new ones. Levy was also a really nice guy and a players coach. But he too struggled with out strategizing his counterpart in the SB's.  If we waste the talents of Josh like the Angels have wasted Mike Trout, it will be a colossal fail on the leadership. 

If/when the day comes to where the Bills fire McDermott ( I don't think its happening anytime soon) then I hope Beane gets to make the call on the next HC. I know they are the owners and can do whatever they want but I do not want the Pegula's making the call on the next HC. But McDermott isn't getting fired anytime soon so this is all meaningless speculation.

[ganesh]

5 minutes ago, Greg S said:

If/when the day comes to where the Bills fire McDermott ( I don't think its happening anytime soon) then I hope Beane gets to make the call on the next HC. I know they are the owners and can do whatever they want but I do not want the Pegula's making the call on the next HC. But McDermott isn't getting fired anytime soon so this is all meaningless speculation.

Winning super bowls are hard.   Aaron Rodgers has won one in his career;  Rothelisberger won 2 in his 18 year career...The Mannings won two each...   The time will come for McDermott and Allen.

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, ganesh said:

Winning super bowls are hard.   Aaron Rodgers has won one in his career;  Rothelisberger won 2 in his 18 year career...The Mannings won two each...   The time will come for McDermott and Allen.

 

You are right. Look how long it took Andy Reid. That right there is proof its very to win. I still can't get over 13 seconds. I really think they would have beaten the Bengals at home in a close game. It would be BUF vs LA if not for 13 seconds but we will never know now.

[Beast]

I don't think I responded to this yet but my answer is short and to the point.

 

No. We are not overreacting. It was literally one of the worst collapses in NFL history and the more I think about it the angrier I become at the coaching staff. 

Edited February 8, 2022 by Beast

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

You are right. Look how long it took Andy Reid. That right there is proof its very difficult to win. I still can't get over 13 seconds. I really think they would have beaten the Bengals at home in a close game. It would be BUF vs LA if not for 13 seconds but we will never know now.

Think you're missing a word.  That is why we continue to obsess.  This year everything seemed in place.  Not to say the Bills won't have many an opportunity, but things can go sideways in a hurry.

 

The Rams may win it all and look at how they almost blew it vs. TB or SF coming down to the last 2 mins.

 

Cincy has frankly been lucky in all 3 games.

 

Again every game you can question calls, missed penalties, bad reads, dropped passes throughout the game.

 

This came down to a colossal F'up by the coaches over the FINAL 13 SECONDS.....

 

[Saint Doug]

I’m not getting down on the coaches as some are on here. I think the 13 seconds debacle matters, but it’s a symptom of a much bigger issue. I don’t care about the squib vs no squib call. The fact remains that we kicked the ball off to a team with 13 seconds left and they were able to to put 3 points on the scoreboard. To me, it indicates a failure of execution by our defense. There’s 2 players (and by extension, 3) they needed to shut down for 2-3 plays: Hill and Kelce. They couldn’t even do this. Garbage defense. I will say, if Tre was playing, I bet we would’ve won that game. 

Edited February 8, 2022 by Saint Doug