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Are we over-reacting to the 13 seconds?


cv05

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Just now, muppy said:

Im still sad about last sundays game. I have no idea how long this funk will last. BUT I saw this today and the sentiment made me feel a bit better so I'll share it here

 

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Great teammate and great young man! However, it does not diminish the unconscionable game decisions that lost Bills this game. The players deserved better. Some of these guys will never have such an opening as this year.
Host AFC championship vs underdogs who have no idea the home field as Highmark would have presented. No super NFC team although Rams seem to be the team. Would have given Bills 55-60 % chance of winning SB. 

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I know I'm probably in the major minority here, and probably proof that meds work, but the game left me feeling upset but not like I have in the past. 

 

I was over it an hour later and went on with my life. 

 

And for anyone that wants to say "I'm not a real Bills Fan" so be it.   Much more difficult things in my life I have to deal with compared to a football game. 

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2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I know I'm probably in the major minority here, and probably proof that meds work, but the game left me feeling upset but not like I have in the past. 

 

I was over it an hour later and went on with my life. 

 

And for anyone that wants to say "I'm not a real Bills Fan" so be it.   Much more difficult things in my life I have to deal with compared to a football game. 

I think everyone feels that way..the problem is that the Bills are what distracts us from those bigger issues and brings us all together for a common goal. The coaches tore that away from us in 13 seconds.

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Just now, QLBillsFan said:

Great teammate and great young man! However, it does not diminish the unconscionable game decisions that lost Bills this game. The players deserved better. Some of these guys will never have such an opening as this year.
Host AFC championship vs underdogs who have no idea the home field as Highmark would have presented. No super NFC team although Rams seem to be the team. Would have given Bills 55-60 % chance of winning SB. 

I guess Im TRYING to bogart offa #17 and his attitude , think positively and Move forward in my thinking. And I am grateful that we have THE key Piece the Bills have searched for for years and that is the Franchise QB.  All the woulda coulda shouldas in the world aren't going to change what did occur. And I agree with your post. At this point it is so much spilt milk. McD is going nowhere and we all have to just watch and wait as the loyal fanbase we are for the changes that WILL be occurring and  know our thoughts and opinions, although very heartfelt and genuine, mean absolutely squat in terms if what Will happen at 1bd. Im not trying to stifle the dialogue Im just expressing how my thoughts are going lately. *shrugs* The life of  an NFL fanatic. Live and and carry on until we do it all over again as long as we are here on earth. .....sorry for the blathering post.

 

m    

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We are NOT overreacting simply because there are no guarantees in the NFL and this could have been our best chance to win the Superbowl.  What if something happens to Josh in the offseason- our chances to get back into the playoffs would take a SERIOUS nose dive.

 

I just hope we didn't waste our only opportunity w/ this regime because who would have ever thought that a guy like Rogers would only have one Superbowl appearance?   Past success does not guarantee future performance especially in a league where things change so quickly.

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over reacting to a complete abomination.....i dont think so

 

the brain trust isn't even smart enough to run some very valuable time off the clock and make it harder for opposing team

 

a squibb kick would have resulted in a fair catch at the 10 yard line ? (now an even greater chance of winning with a drive start further back ) or a return to the 25-30 with only 9 seconds left ? ( still a better chance of winning than 13 sec.)

 

then instead of defending every blade of grass ....they welcomed them to 15 free uncontested yards...not once, but twice. they should have blocked hill and kelse right at the line of scrimmage to slow their release....hell, even take a 5 yard holding penaly (wasting more seconds)

 

nope, i dont think this is over reacting.....mcclappity cost us the game right there......not to mention letting frazier play soft all game and daboll played timid until near the end of 3rd qtr

 

greatest coaching disaster in the history of the bills.......replaces the under utilization of thurman and clock mismanagement in SB vs giants

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32 minutes ago, BuffaloBaumer said:

I think everyone feels that way..the problem is that the Bills are what distracts us from those bigger issues and brings us all together for a common goal. The coaches tore that away from us in 13 seconds.

I understand. And yes it hurts. I know the reason it hurts so much more now is because we know these guys can do it vs the past 20 years but like Beane and others have said, we got a guy that is probably still growing toward his full potential and that's the silver lining that we can all hold out hope for. 

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3 hours ago, arcane said:

I've felt less pain thinking of it as KC needing 2 plays to go at least 35 yards. They've done that countless times of course.

 

But it was still a big screw up

I tried that too, but it actually makes it worse.   The Bills didn't have a strategy to  defend to prevent 35 yards.   The played like they were trying to defend a TD.  On the last play to Kelce, they should have played defense like it was 4th & 15.    Instead they allowed him to run freely  for 25 yards without getting anywhere near him.

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You know that commercial ESPN had 20 years ago with the clay figures of Bills fans overreacting to a lead change before the game is over and then letting their hopes up? That commercial was true then as it is now, especially those overreacting and overanalyzing 13 seconds of a game that had 59 other minutes. 

 

Where was this when our oh great leader OC Daboll spent a week game planning for the Jaguars yet could only coordinate two field goals? 

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I think a self imposed exile away from NFL football may be just the ticket for me to quit thinking about the ending of last weeks game. Its self imposed abuse y'all.

 

I won't have it in my life.  Yeah lets see how well that works HA......super bowl schmooper  bowl ,,may as well be toilet bowl Im not even thinking about That. yet.

 

*shrugs*

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I would say a definitive NO!

 

It would be one thing if the Bills had no time outs left, then the Chiefs make two quick chunk plays and then nail the FG. I think that alone is bad enough from a defensive POV.

 

But the Bills took not one, but TWO time outs and still cocked it up. Which now takes it into the catastrophic category of both game management and defense. So it begs the question:

 

WHAT THE HELL WERE THEY DOING IN THE TWO TIMEOUTS - ORDERING A !@#$ PIZZA!!??

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3 minutes ago, SydneyBillsFan said:

I would say a definitive NO!

 

It would be one thing if the Bills had no time outs left, then the Chiefs make two quick chunk plays and then nail the FG. I think that alone is bad enough from a defensive POV.

 

But the Bills took not one, but TWO time outs and still cocked it up. Which now takes it into the catastrophic category of both game management and defense. So it begs the question:

 

WHAT THE HELL WERE THEY DOING IN THE TWO TIMEOUTS - ORDERING A !@#$ PIZZA!!??

 

Speaking of pizza, Eric Moulds ordered a pizza before the Senior Bowl right before he was drafted by the Bills. I think it worked out well for him so what's wrong with them using 2 timeouts to order a pizza? There's a million roads to success. 

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25 minutes ago, papazoid said:

over reacting to a complete abomination.....i dont think so

 

the brain trust isn't even smart enough to run some very valuable time off the clock and make it harder for opposing team

 

a squibb kick would have resulted in a fair catch at the 10 yard line ? (now an even greater chance of winning with a drive start further back ) or a return to the 25-30 with only 9 seconds left ? ( still a better chance of winning than 13 sec.)

 

then instead of defending every blade of grass ....they welcomed them to 15 free uncontested yards...not once, but twice. they should have blocked hill and kelse right at the line of scrimmage to slow their release....hell, even take a 5 yard holding penaly (wasting more seconds)

 

nope, i dont think this is over reacting.....mcclappity cost us the game right there......not to mention letting frazier play soft all game and daboll played timid until near the end of 3rd qtr

 

greatest coaching disaster in the history of the bills.......replaces the under utilization of thurman and clock mismanagement in SB vs giants

A lot of things went wrong that game, but that was over 60 minutes.....

 

Here all we expected was 13 seconds of coaching.....  3 plays, if they did one right, they win.

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2 hours ago, ngbills said:

Completely different. Starting from the fact it took 16 seconds. First play took 9 so I doubt KC is thinking field goal with only 4 seconds left. 

 

The plays were completely different. Not here throw and run really quick with no one around you. Here do the same thing again. Once incompletion and its basically game no FG territory but Bills didnt even get close to the KC players. It is completely and utterly inexcusable, insane, atrocious and any other word to say how terrible a decision it was. 


The defense was horribly overmatched those last two plays. If you listen to Kelce’s mike he tells Hill what to do on the first play. Then he tells Mahomes what to do on the second. You can hear Mahomes yelling to him to do it, at that point he resets over and splits the defenders for 25 yards. Why any of those guys were allowed a free release is beyond me. The kickoff is not as big of an issue. The Hill pass earlier had them playing scared.

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5 hours ago, cv05 said:
  • So I've heard the win probability thrown around that at the 13 second mark the chiefs had a 5%, 1 in 20, chance to win (according to ESPN)
  • Assuming the game goes to overtime, before the coin flip, each team has a 50% chance to win (1 in 2)
  • Ignoring the case where the chiefs win with a TD in regulation, a tie had a probability of about 10% ( (1/2)x(Tie Probability)= 1/20) 

 

The question - is getting upset about a 10% likely scenario (chiefs tie it in 13 seconds) really fair? It rains in LA 1 in 10 days 🤷‍♂️. Also, does the probability from ESPN (1 in 20) account for the state of the teams at that moment? Mahomes and Allen were having their way with tired defenses - maybe the likelihood of gaining ~40-45 yards in 12 seconds with 3 timeouts was actually pretty good, even better than 10%. I don't know - I think looking at it this way at least makes me feel a bit better.

 

I will out myself as being completely irrational over the last few days. I completely disagree with the defensive strategy, and was (to a lessor extent) against what happened with the kick. I have been just about as upset with McDermott as anyone. I had never been a huge fan (attributed team success to Allen, and McDermott more just getting in the way). But maybe we were up against more than we realized at that 13 second mark. I don't know - food for thought. 

    Our Head coach and all three of his coordinators crapped the bed at crucial moments.

    In other words, NO!

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