Should the Bills extend Edmunds?

[MAJBobby]

11 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

There's no different hill buddy.

 

what's the context of those plays?

 

How does that stack up against other linebackers?

 

and if you have that stat handy in which you said 12, please send it my way and link it here

 

 

 

 

 

 

He is a top 15 LBer. That is the reality. Again used YOUR definition no trying to caveat it because the answer you got didn’t fit your narrative. 
 

 

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

He is a top 15 LBer. That is the reality. Again used YOUR definition no trying to caveat it because the answer you got didn’t fit your narrative. 
 

 

Where's your link for the stat you said to me?

[MAJBobby]

Just now, BillsFan130 said:

Where's your link for the stat you said to me?

Pro football Reference has the Picks, Sacks PD and TFLs. Basic math = 12 plays. 

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, MAJBobby said:

Pro football Reference has the Picks, Sacks PD and TFLs. Basic math = 12 plays. 

Ok. And that ranks where amongst linebackers or how does that stack up against an average linebacker who played a full season?

 

And now you aren't going to include forced fumbles or fumble recoveries?

Cause he had a goose egg there so the math wouldn't change on that one for him , but it would on any other reasonable linebacker

[NastyNateSoldiers]

31 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

My point is he makes little to no impact plays.

 

0 sacks. 1 INT. 7 tackles for loss. 0 forced fumbles. 0 fumble recoveries.

 

That 100 percent reflects what I'm saying .

 

I don't even know how it's humanly possible to play that many snaps in the middle of the defence and have those numbers

Here’s the thing is this by design or is he truly just average player? Some people think it’s the scheme we play that keeps Edmunds in reactive mode instead of attacking. I believe there’s definitely a scheme issue and he just doesn’t have great awareness for the position as well. 

[BillsFan130]

9 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Here’s the thing is this by design or is he truly just average player? Some people think it’s the scheme we play that keeps Edmunds in reactive mode instead of attacking. I believe there’s definitely a scheme issue and he just doesn’t have great awareness for the position as well. 

I think it's a little bit of both for sure

[MAJBobby]

13 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Here’s the thing is this by design or is he truly just average player? Some people think it’s the scheme we play that keeps Edmunds in reactive mode instead of attacking. I believe there’s definitely a scheme issue and he just doesn’t have great awareness for the position as well. 

They have him 2 gapping as a MIke. Instincts and attacking are mitigated because of the responsibility of 2 gaps in your Run fits. 
 

The Scheme and the responsibilities placed on him hurt those instincts. 
 

bills players have said as much as well. 
 

when he was out the Defense Changed with Klein as he played the traditional MIke Role read and react. 
 

end of the day Edmunds isn’t going anywhere and will get a good extension that pays him based on his value to the Bills. 
 

is he Bobby Wagner at this point? Nope he isn’t. And he won’t be paid in that level either. 

[LABILLBACKER]

11 hours ago, Bferra13 said:

So hes average to below average at wat he does hovering around that 15 spot. But has a lot more on his plate. Not worth it. Get a second for him if someone is dumb enough to pay that. He's a problem and going to be an expensive one with ridiculous pro bowls under his belt now. Find a replacement Beane. If its a skills tradeoff that comes at half the price, sold. Dont need to pat this dude ridiculous market value wen it ain't working. I'll trade the speed for instinct.

And there's your winning answer. 

[soflabillsfan1]

You know the Edmunds defenders are struggling when they bring up his 2 Pro Bowls.  Pro Bowl already was a joke but now it's almost meaningless with all the opt outs.

[LeGOATski]

I think they're going to extend him at the right price, both parties will be happy, and they should. They've developed him, he's become a leader, and done everything they've asked. He'll continue to be a polarizing player to fans, but that doesn't matter to the front office. To then it only matters that they have the pieces in place for a top 10 defense.

[BillsFan130]

13 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Pro football Reference has the Picks, Sacks PD and TFLs. Basic math = 12 plays. 

Picked a few random linebackers out since you gave me the stat "12" impact plays based on the metrics we used.

 

Edmunds in 17 games including the playoffs had 12.

 

Logan wilson a 3rd round, 2nd year linebacker for the bengals in 16 games total had 22.

 

So 10 more impact plays in 1 less game played as a guy who has been in the league for 2 years compared to Edmunds 4.

 

Ya like I said. Edmunds is just not a playmaker relative to basically any starting linebacker in this league

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

9 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

So basically McD is forcing him into his own struggles…. 

 

It's anyone's fault but Edmunds' 🙄

 

[DrDawkinstein]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Not denying what he is saying is wrong… just a strange coaching strategy… Good coaches tend to tailor the scheme to their players strengths. 

 

Oh, I know you're fine with blaming it on McD, but the scheme is the scheme. Edmunds was drafted FOR this scheme. This IS the scheme for his strengths.

 

Just like Luke Kuechly, who was drafted based on his skill set to play the same exact position in the same exact scheme, and who regularly made big, game-changing plays from pretty much day 1.

 

Scheme isnt changing, and it isnt worth overhauling the entire defense and defensive personnel for one player. And even if we did, what exactly are Edmunds' strengths that the scheme should be adjusted to emphasize?

[Richard Noggin]

16 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Except he does. What do you consider fake changing plays. You know who else didn’t Milano but he can do no wrong playing the easiest LBer position their is to play in a Will. 
 

what is funny is Edmunds is a two gap MIke (not many if any do that). He actually has more responsibility in this defense than Keuchley did in Carolina. 

I think this qualifies as a "pivot" or for sure some whataboutism. 

 

Milano has been "around the ball" (i.e., made impact plays) with demonstrably more frequency in his career than Edmunds has. I'm just gonna assume/guess here that Milano's PDs, TFLs, INTs, FFs, FRs, and sacks are all or mostly all much higher (especially on a per game basis) than Edmunds. That way if I'm wrong someone can feel awesome about making me look dumb. 

 

I know they play different roles, so let's just set aside that subjective excuse for a moment. They are both assigned very demanding roles in McD's/Frazier's scheme.

[MAJBobby]

8 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

So basically McD is forcing him into his own struggles…. 

Essentially. Take some of the responsibilities off him that you would never ask another Mike to do and watch how greatly his play improves. 

6 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I think this qualifies as a "pivot" or for sure some whataboutism. 

 

Milano has been "around the ball" (i.e., made impact plays) with demonstrably more frequency in his career than Edmunds has. I'm just gonna assume/guess here that Milano's PDs, TFLs, INTs, FFs, FRs, and sacks are all or mostly all much higher (especially on a per game basis) than Edmunds. That way if I'm wrong someone can feel awesome about making me look dumb. 

 

I know they play different roles, so let's just set aside that subjective excuse for a moment. They are both assigned very demanding roles in McD's/Frazier's scheme.

If you think the easiest LBer position to play WLB is subjective there is nothing I can say that will change that. Also different roles are important. Does Milano have two gaps on run fits or one?  Your WLB should be better in coverage than your MIke as that is a primary role of a WLB. 
 

reality is you cannot play the two positions without talking about the role of the positions. 

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

So basically McD is forcing him into his own struggles…. 

This is an interesting conversation. My view on Edmunds is that he doesn't make a ton of big plays -- he's no Kuechly, although Kuechly was probably the best NFL LB of the past 15 years -- but what we don't see is how he messes up passing games for opponents. Passes are completed against him for sure, but a lot of passes don't come his way because of his range and ability to execute mid-range middle-of-the-field coverage. Opposing teams had a staggeringly low 65.3 passer rating vs. the Bills this season. That's unheard of in this day and age. Yeah, I know they played backups and a bunch of bad weather games, but still. My point is that the passes and lanes that are taken away by a rangy LB with a massive wingspan have helped the Bills attain their truly lofty status in pass defense. 

 

The issue for Edmunds -- and for the Bills in general -- is simply the Chiefs. They have the system, the speed guys, the QB, and--most importantly--the game changing TE who has a mind-meld with the elite QB on option routes to break down and expose the Bills scheme. No other team does. So much of what people are reacting to w/regard to Edmunds are those two playoff games vs. KC. I'd argue that the real problem was not having a true game-wrecking, sack-finishing d-lineman or two. We get pressure, sure, but we don't get sacks like the Chargers do or Tampa did vs. KC last year. Plays get extended, and vs. our matchup zone, KC's elite receivers will eventually get open and the QB will hit them.    

11 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Oh, I know you're fine with blaming it on McD, but the scheme is the scheme. Edmunds was drafted FOR this scheme. This IS the scheme for his strengths.

 

Just like Luke Kuechly, who was drafted based on his skill set to play the same exact position in the same exact scheme, and who regularly made big, game-changing plays from pretty much day 1.

 

Scheme isnt changing, and it isnt worth overhauling the entire defense and defensive personnel for one player. And even if we did, what exactly are Edmunds' strengths that the scheme should be adjusted to emphasize?

I'd argue that we should try and maintain our proven ability to hold opposing teams to a passer rating of below 70. Edmunds is a key part of that pass defense. That is a incredible stat and should win a ton of games for you. With regard to upholding that, Edmunds isn't the problem; the lack of a finishing d-lineman and one more high level corner are the issues at present. 

Anyway, when it comes to Edmunds, I feel like a lot of people don't look at the bigger context of our scheme. Moreover, if you're watching it on tv, it's very hard to see what he does in coverage schemes.

Edited February 17, 2022 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

This is an interesting conversation. My view on Edmunds is that he doesn't make a ton of big plays -- he's no Kuechly, although Kuechly was probably the best NFL LB of the past 15 years -- but what we don't see is how he messes up passing games for opponents. Passes are completed against him for sure, but a lot of passes don't come his way because of his range and ability to execute mid-range middle-of-the-field coverage. Opposing teams had a staggeringly low 65.3 passer rating vs. the Bills this season. That's unheard of in this day and age. Yeah, I know they played backups and a bunch of bad weather games, but still. My point is that the passes and lanes that are taken away by a rangy LB with a massive wingspan have helped the Bills attain their truly lofty status in pass defense. 

 

The issue for Edmunds -- and for the Bills in general -- is simply the Chiefs. They have the system, the speed guys, the QB, and--most importantly--the game changing TE who has a mind-meld with the elite QB on option routes to break down and expose the Bills scheme. No other team does. So much of what people are reacting to w/regard to Edmunds are those two playoff games vs. KC. I'd argue that the real problem was not having a true game-wrecking, sack-finishing d-lineman or two. We get pressure, sure, but we don't get sacks like the Chargers do or Tampa did vs. KC last year. Plays get extended, and vs. our matchup zone, KC's elite receivers will eventually get open and the QB will hit them.    

I'd argue that we should try and maintain our proven ability to hold opposing teams to a passer rating of below 70. Edmunds is a key part of that pass defense. That is a incredible stat and should win a ton of games for you. With regard to upholding that, Edmunds isn't the problem; the lack of a finishing d-lineman and one more high level corner are the issues at present. 

Anyway, when it comes to Edmunds, I feel like a lot of people don't look at the bigger context of our scheme. Moreover, if you're watching it on tv, it's very hard to see what he does in coverage schemes.

 

 

1) Edmunds doesn't just not make "a ton of plays" he rarely makes ANY.    That statement falls in line with McDermott saying "would we like to score 50 points every game, sure" in response to having one of the worst offenses in NFL history thru half a season in 2018.   The man with the 7' wingspan hasn't forced a fumble in a regular season game since mid-way thru his rookie season!  

 

2) "Passes are completed against him for sure, but a lot of passes don't come his way because of his"    Edmunds'  passer rating is well over 100 the past two years so the Bills "65.3" rating is somewhat in spite of the action that comes his way.    That's math.  

 

And here is the thing about all this range he supposedly has to prevent passes in his area..........if a LB is just a half step out of position he might as well be 5'4" instead of 6'4"..........Edmunds is not disciplined or instinctive in coverage.  

 

3) The Chiefs are a problem.   For sure.  They are really familiar with Buffalo now and Edmunds is Mahomes toy.   He works him like a yo-yo.    That's not the case with all LB's though.......as noted,  Logan Wilson played a masterful game in coverage against Mahomes attempts to manipulate him in the AFCCG.

 

The Bills were fortunate to really only face two top QB's this year.........Mahomes and Brady.    Both torched the Bills for the most part.    It's more of a "good QB" issue in the passing game with Edmunds........will agree about that.    But then there is the liability in run defense against strong running teams.    So then we have Edmunds' sweet spot.......bad to average QB's in pass D..........and middling running teams.    Then the problem is.........he doesn't make game changing plays.

 

The Bills could really use a finishing pass rusher but the ACTUAL reason their passer rating is so good is because they get very good pressure from their front 4,   force QB's to throw or tuck and scramble quicker than they want to.    And they are experienced and make a lot of plays on the ball in the secondary.    

 

The reality is that Edmunds is just an average MLB right now.........who was drafted and expected to be a game changer and looks like an All Pro on the hoof.   

Edited February 17, 2022 by BADOLBILZ

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

1) Edmunds doesn't just not make "a ton of plays" he rarely makes ANY.    That statement falls in line with McDermott saying "would we like to score 50 points every game, sure" in response to having one of the worst offenses in NFL history thru half a season in 2018.   The man with the 7' wingspan hasn't forced a fumble in a regular season game since mid-way thru his rookie season!  

 

2) "Passes are completed against him for sure, but a lot of passes don't come his way because of his"    Edmunds'  passer rating is well over 100 the past two years so the Bills "65.3" rating is somewhat in spite of the action that comes his way.    That's math.  

 

And here is the thing about all this range he supposedly has to prevent passes in his area..........if a LB is just a half step out of position he might as well be 5'4" instead of 6'4"..........Edmunds is not disciplined or instinctive in coverage.  

 

3) The Chiefs are a problem.   For sure.  They are really familiar with Buffalo now and Edmunds is Mahomes toy.   He works him like a yo-yo.    That's not the case with all LB's though.......as noted,  Logan Wilson played a masterful game in coverage against Mahomes attempts to manipulate him in the AFCCG.

 

The Bills were fortunate to really only face two top QB's this year.........Mahomes and Brady.    Both torched the Bills for the most part.    It's more of a "good QB" issue in the passing game with Edmunds........will agree about that.    But then there is the liability in run defense against strong running teams.    So then we have Edmunds' sweet spot.......bad to average QB's in pass D..........and middling running teams.    Then the problem is.........he doesn't make game changing plays.

 

The Bills could really use a finishing pass rusher but the ACTUAL reason their passer rating is so good is because they get very good pressure from their front 4,   force QB's to throw or tuck and scramble quicker than they want to.    And they are experienced and make a lot of plays on the ball in the secondary.    

 

The reality is that Edmunds is just an average MLB right now.........who was drafted and expected to be a game changer and looks like an All Pro on the hoof.   

These are good takes, and I mostly agree, especially re who they hoped he would be vs who he is. But I also see a lot of QBs making bad decisions and avoiding the middle of the field vs the Bills pass D. He's pretty much always sitting in the middle there. I have heard at least one opposing coach say that he's a real problem in pass D, and you of all people know that pass D is more important than run D (not that the latter is unimportant; it is). As for the completion rate, yeah, but a lot of dumpoffs to RBs go his way. As I mentioned earlier, Mixon caught 87.5 percent of the passes thrown his way, and while he's at the high end for RBs, RBs in general tend to catch balls at a high rate. It skews passer rating vs LBs, who let those passes happen and then rally to tackle. But he needs to be making 2-4 picks per season to be sure and breaking up more than the 4 passes he broke up this year (as opposed to 12 in 2018 and 9 in 2019). He's not doing that. 

 

You'll probably laugh at this, but one skill he does have is running and chasing guys who've made short catches. He's very good at rallying to the tackle in open space (no need to shed blockers out there) because he's a punishing tackler and very fast for his position. He also only has to react and not read. Hence there will be catches against the Bills pass D, but he's good at preventing them from becoming bigger plays. That doesn't make him elite, of course, but it is an attribute that's probably more important on the point-prevention front than many give the team credit for.  He had his best missed tackle rate ever this season - 8.5 percent, which is pretty solid for the LB position. 

 

Re: math, you're missing my point. The passes that aren't thrown his way because he's doing something good out there will never reflect on the rating against him. My point is that teams this past season struggled massively vs the Bills pass D, and he's a core part of it in the mid-range areas. QBs get confused and make bad decisions, and it happened a lot this season. (I'm not saying he's all-world at pass defending, so please don't make it sound as if I am!)

 

Bottom line: he may get better, although I think he'll never be great. He also knows how to function in the system pretty well, and things can ALWAYS get worse -- the grass isn't always greener.

 

Interestingly enough, the LB I really wanted in that draft (after the QB, of course) was Roquan Smith. Man, is he good: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitRo07.htm. This past season, opposing QBs throwing has way had an extremely low 76.8 percent rating vs him (LBs tend to have surrender very high passer ratings as a general rule) and he only missed 3.6 percent of his tackles. He is a difference maker. Doesn't force a ton of turnovers, though.

Edited February 17, 2022 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

These are good takes, and I mostly agree, especially re who they hoped he would be vs who he is. But I also see a lot of QBs making bad decisions and avoiding the middle of the field vs the Bills pass D. He's sitting in the middle there. I have heard at least one opposing coach say that he's a real problem in pass D, and you of all people know that pass D is more important than run D (not that the latter is unimportant; it is). As for the completion rate, yeah, but a lot of dumpoffs to RBs go his way. As I mentioned earlier, Mixon caught 87.5 percent of the passes thrown his way, and while he's at the high end for RBs, RBs in general tend to catch balls at a high rate. It skews passer rating vs LBs, who let those passes happen and then rally to tackle. But he needs to be making 2-4 picks per season to be sure and breaking up more than the 4 passes he broke up this year (as opposed to 12 in 2018 and 9 in 2019). He's not doing that. 

 

You'll probably laugh at this, but one skill he does have is running and chasing guys who've made short catches. He's very good at rallying to the tackle in open space (no need to shed blockers out there) because he's a punishing tackler and very fast for his position. He also only has to react and not read. Hence there will be catches against the Bills pass D, but he's good at preventing them from becoming bigger plays. That doesn't make him elite, of course, but it is an attribute that's probably more important on the point-prevention front than many give the team credit for.  He had his best missed tackle rate ever this season - 8.5 percent, which is pretty solid for the LB position. 

 

Bottom line: he may get better, although I think he'll never be great. He also knows how to function in the system pretty well, and things can ALWAYS get worse -- the grass isn't always greener.

 

Interestingly enough, the LB I really wanted in that draft (after the QB, of course) was Roquan Smith. Man, is he good: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitRo07.htm. This past season, opposing QBs throwing has way had an extremely low 76.8 percent rating vs him (LBs tend to have surrender very high passer ratings as a general rule) and he only missed 3.6 percent of his tackles. He is a difference maker. Doesn't force a ton of turnovers, though.

 

 

I don't doubt for a minute that teams that haven't seen a lot of Edmunds are wary of throwing at him in the middle.

 

But I think what we've seen the last two seasons is a number of teams realizing there isn't really a lot of risk throwing the ball Edmunds way............he is the antithesis of a "heady" player.

 

He will run up and put a big hit on a defenseless receiver who is at a full stop 5 yards from the LOS in the middle of the field............but Darius Leonard comes in and peanut punches the ball at the ball while making the tackle on the same play.

 

Edmunds also attacks passes in front of him.....even when it's clear that another defender is making the play............with seemingly no concept that the pass might get tipped to him.  

 

He is never mentally prepared to make plays.

 

And yeah he can run down receivers and ball carriers going side to side at a high level................but it's negated by the fact that blocks stick to him in the screen game and that he is a woeful blitzer.   In 2020 he somehow blitzed 72 times without generating a single pressure.    

 

Right now he's a middle of the league MLB..........which isn't a great distinction being a de-valued position..........but the more familiar people are getting with him.........the further he's been slipping down the list, IMO.     I'm concerned that his slide isn't over.

 

But as I mentioned.........guys like DeVondre Campbell and Demario Davis took big steps after their rookie deals were up(at much older ages than Edmunds is now)..........so it's not impossible that he improves significantly.     Just seems unlikely at this point.

 

[GoBills808]

15 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

I think this qualifies as a "pivot" or for sure some whataboutism. 

 

Milano has been "around the ball" (i.e., made impact plays) with demonstrably more frequency in his career than Edmunds has. I'm just gonna assume/guess here that Milano's PDs, TFLs, INTs, FFs, FRs, and sacks are all or mostly all much higher (especially on a per game basis) than Edmunds. That way if I'm wrong someone can feel awesome about making me look dumb. 

 

I know they play different roles, so let's just set aside that subjective excuse for a moment. They are both assigned very demanding roles in McD's/Frazier's scheme.

It’s a misinterpretation of base nickel scheme that demands ‘impact plays’ from your MLB imo