Should the Bills extend Edmunds?

[DapperCam]

Sign or trade for an affordable vet. Make Edmunds earn his starter spot in camp.

[Brand J]

3 hours ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

 

You do realize that you are comparing Edmunds to arguably the best ILB in the league…who is at a career production pace consistent with a first-ballot Hall of Famer, correct? Furthermore, you realize that Darius Leonard during his rookie year was the same age that Tremaine Edmunds is NOW? Furthermore, you realize that the Colts play a noticeably different defensive system with different MLB responsibilities than Leslie Frazier’s?

 

A more appropriate statistical comparison would be Carolina’s Luke Kuechly, who happened to have had a first-ballot Hall of Fame career.

 

For fun, let’s do a basic career statistical comparison of all three LB’s. Here are their season statistical averages (projected for a full 17-game season and rounded to the nearest whole numbers) for 10 basic statistical categories plus 1 team stat. The order is Edmunds’ followed by Kuechly’s followed by Leonard’s:

 

Combined tackles: 129, 157, 158

Solo tackles: 82, 99, 101

Assisted tackles: 47, 58, 57

Tackles for losses: 7, 11, 9

QB hits: 4, 4, 6

Sacks: 2, 2, 4

Forced fumbles: 1, 1, 5

Fumble recoveries: 0, 1, 2

Interceptions: 1, 3, 3

Passes defended: 8, 10, 9

Team’s defensive unit ranking (in yards allowed per game): 5, 12, 13

 

Keep in mind here that these individual statistical averages are comparatively higher for Kuechly versus Edmunds partly because they include Kuechly’s peak athletic years during his middle 20’s. Also keep in mind that Kuechly’s numbers are comparatively lower to Leonard’s partly for the same averaging-out reason (as well as the different defensive systems in which they played).

 

CONCLUSION: You know what? No, I’m not going to do this. Here are the stats. The haters are free to draw whatever conclusions they want. I’ve already determined for myself (which incorporates X’s and O’s analyses from people whose opinions I respect…think: Greg Cosell types) that Edmunds is a top 20 NFL LB and still has potential to be much more. Many of you probably gave up on Josh Allen when he was 23 years old, but I’m not going to do that to Tremaine. I’m more than happy to have him as a Buffalo Bill for at least 1 more year. He’ll have every opportunity to establish his true second contract market value next offseason.

Edmunds’ stats as a rookie blow away every subsequent year. When he was a rookie we got the splash plays to go along with the mistakes; now we get the same mistakes but none of the splash plays. I’m not sure why he has regressed rather than progressed. It’s reminiscent of Lotuleile.

There are a number of plays where it looks like Edmunds goes half speed, like a player who lacks the grit, tenacity, and hunger to stop the opposition. Forget playing like his “hair is on fire,” he plays like someone whose number one objective is to avoid injury. We can and must do better at that position and if Beane can find a trading partner this off-season I’m all for it.

Edited February 4, 2022 by JayBaller10

[DrDawkinstein]

5 hours ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

 

You do realize that you are comparing Edmunds to arguably the best ILB in the league…who is at a career production pace consistent with a first-ballot Hall of Famer, correct? Furthermore, you realize that Darius Leonard during his rookie year was the same age that Tremaine Edmunds is NOW? Furthermore, you realize that the Colts play a noticeably different defensive system with different MLB responsibilities than Leslie Frazier’s?

 

A more appropriate statistical comparison would be Carolina’s Luke Kuechly, who happened to have had a first-ballot Hall of Fame career.

 

For fun, let’s do a basic career statistical comparison of all three LB’s. Here are their season statistical averages (projected for a full 17-game season and rounded to the nearest whole numbers) for 10 basic statistical categories plus 1 team stat. The order is Edmunds’ followed by Kuechly’s followed by Leonard’s:

 

Combined tackles: 129, 157, 158

Solo tackles: 82, 99, 101

Assisted tackles: 47, 58, 57

Tackles for losses: 7, 11, 9

QB hits: 4, 4, 6

Sacks: 2, 2, 4

Forced fumbles: 1, 1, 5

Fumble recoveries: 0, 1, 2

Interceptions: 1, 3, 3

Passes defended: 8, 10, 9

Team’s defensive unit ranking (in yards allowed per game): 5, 12, 13

 

Keep in mind here that these individual statistical averages are comparatively higher for Kuechly versus Edmunds partly because they include Kuechly’s peak athletic years during his middle 20’s. Also keep in mind that Kuechly’s numbers are comparatively lower to Leonard’s partly for the same averaging-out reason (as well as the different defensive systems in which they played).

 

CONCLUSION: You know what? No, I’m not going to do this. Here are the stats. The haters are free to draw whatever conclusions they want. I’ve already determined for myself (which incorporates X’s and O’s analyses from people whose opinions I respect…think: Greg Cosell types) that Edmunds is a top 20 NFL LB and still has potential to be much more. Many of you probably gave up on Josh Allen when he was 23 years old, but I’m not going to do that to Tremaine. I’m more than happy to have him as a Buffalo Bill for at least 1 more year. He’ll have every opportunity to establish his true second contract market value next offseason.

 

Edmunds is the lowest in every category you posted, but it must be "hating" to say he's not as good?

 

Wow, the mental gymnastics here.

 

Kinda funny that you can post real numbers in a side by side comparison, show him to be the worst, and still say "I've already made up my mind that he is good".

 

But its "haters" saying he isnt good. Got it.

[Nextmanup]

2 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Sign or trade for an affordable vet. Make Edmunds earn his starter spot in camp.

I'd love to trade him, and a lot of posters here mention this, but how much trade value does he actually have?

 

Surely not nearly as much as Bills fans posting here think he has.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:

I'd love to trade him, and a lot of posters here mention this, but how much trade value does he actually have?

 

Surely not nearly as much as Bills fans posting here think he has.

 

 

 

That's why I'm hoping for a player/player trade instead of for picks.

 

Find a CB or OL that hasnt lived up to their hype either, and could use a change of scenery, and see what happens. Like the Hughes/Sheppard trade.

[GaryPinC]

5 hours ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

 

You do realize that you are comparing Edmunds to arguably the best ILB in the league…who is at a career production pace consistent with a first-ballot Hall of Famer, correct? Furthermore, you realize that Darius Leonard during his rookie year was the same age that Tremaine Edmunds is NOW? Furthermore, you realize that the Colts play a noticeably different defensive system with different MLB responsibilities than Leslie Frazier’s?

 

A more appropriate statistical comparison would be Carolina’s Luke Kuechly, who happened to have had a first-ballot Hall of Fame career.

 

For fun, let’s do a basic career statistical comparison of all three LB’s. Here are their season statistical averages (projected for a full 17-game season and rounded to the nearest whole numbers) for 10 basic statistical categories plus 1 team stat. The order is Edmunds’ followed by Kuechly’s followed by Leonard’s:

 

Combined tackles: 129, 157, 158

Solo tackles: 82, 99, 101

Assisted tackles: 47, 58, 57

Tackles for losses: 7, 11, 9

QB hits: 4, 4, 6

Sacks: 2, 2, 4

Forced fumbles: 1, 1, 5

Fumble recoveries: 0, 1, 2

Interceptions: 1, 3, 3

Passes defended: 8, 10, 9

Team’s defensive unit ranking (in yards allowed per game): 5, 12, 13

 

Keep in mind here that these individual statistical averages are comparatively higher for Kuechly versus Edmunds partly because they include Kuechly’s peak athletic years during his middle 20’s. Also keep in mind that Kuechly’s numbers are comparatively lower to Leonard’s partly for the same averaging-out reason (as well as the different defensive systems in which they played).

 

CONCLUSION: You know what? No, I’m not going to do this. Here are the stats. The haters are free to draw whatever conclusions they want. I’ve already determined for myself (which incorporates X’s and O’s analyses from people whose opinions I respect…think: Greg Cosell types) that Edmunds is a top 20 NFL LB and still has potential to be much more. Many of you probably gave up on Josh Allen when he was 23 years old, but I’m not going to do that to Tremaine. I’m more than happy to have him as a Buffalo Bill for at least 1 more year. He’ll have every opportunity to establish his true second contract market value next offseason.

I appreciate the statistical argument, there's  plenty of folks here who put all their stock in statistics.  But I  would suggest you watch him play entire games.

 

He's a competent MLB, but with few instincts and is more times then not fooled or slow to react to the play then uses his speed to make up for his slow mental processing.  He is seldom  aggressive at the point of attack and frequently jogs along waiting for others closer to the ball to make the play.

 

I don't hate him but he hasn't improved in 4 seasons, in fact both his total and solo tackles have gone down from his rookie year. 

 

Why is it Milano gets to cover Kelce when Edmunds would seem the better fit on paper?

 

I'm ok if the FO wants to give him his last season to see a jump but he becomes  a liability against the best teams in the league and I think  either he's uncomfortable in his role or maxed out already and worth considering a new direction.

[billsfan89]

I think Edumonds is a valuable part of the defense. However I think that the Bills are likely best off letting him play out his 5th year option and letting him hit free agency and drafting a replacement early. He is likely going to command a lot of money after this season. He is young and a starter for several years on a top defense. He has the skills and shown ability at a position of value in the NFL. That's going to likely command him 15+ million a season. The Bills will continually be in a cap crunch as long as they have Josh on a mega deal and talent elsewhere on the roster. The Bills will have to make decisions on who is worth keeping and letting go. And in my opinion a MLB that is very good but not great is not worth 15+ million. Now thankfully this team does not have to make that decision until next off-season so they have another year of value to extract. 

 

Now if this team can get Edumonds to a deal more in the range of 10-12 million a season then fine that's worth considering but his likely market value is just not going to be a good fit for this roster. 

[pigpen65]

14 hours ago, Billy Zabka said:

Edmunds shows flashes, puts a good run of 3 or 4 games together and you think man this guy has finally figured it out, but then he regresses back again. You knew there would be growing pains with him being so young and playing a new position from college, but I think we know what he is most likely gonna be at this point...a great athlete but not a great MLB, maybe not even a good one.

I think his good runs of 3 or 4 games have been runs of 3 or 4 games vs weak opponents. Weaker teams the rest of the D is more available to cover for him. The better offenses that were able to spread the D out and isolate Edmunds, whether in the run game or the pass game, just blew him apart. 

[Mattymafia]

3 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Edmunds is the lowest in every category you posted, but it must be "hating" to say he's not as good?

 

Wow, the mental gymnastics here.

 

Kinda funny that you can post real numbers in a side by side comparison, show him to be the worst, and still say "I've already made up my mind that he is good".

 

But its "haters" saying he isnt good. Got it.

To be fair, he did post Edmunds next to 2 ALL PRO players. Two of the best of their eras. 

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, Mattymafia said:

To be fair, he did post Edmunds next to 2 ALL PRO players. Two of the best of their eras. 

 

I get that. But in the context of "Should we extend Edmunds (likely for $12M+/year)?", it's not unfair to compare him to the best.

 

His stats show he isnt up there with the best. And when you watch actual game footage, he looks even worse. Eyeball test, he can't hold a candle to Kuechly, playing the same position, in the same D, for the same coach, with the same amount of DL talent in front of him.

[billsfan714]

9 hours ago, ComradeKayAdams said:

 

You do realize that you are comparing Edmunds to arguably the best ILB in the league…who is at a career production pace consistent with a first-ballot Hall of Famer, correct? Furthermore, you realize that Darius Leonard during his rookie year was the same age that Tremaine Edmunds is NOW? Furthermore, you realize that the Colts play a noticeably different defensive system with different MLB responsibilities than Leslie Frazier’s?

 

A more appropriate statistical comparison would be Carolina’s Luke Kuechly, who happened to have had a first-ballot Hall of Fame career.

 

For fun, let’s do a basic career statistical comparison of all three LB’s. Here are their season statistical averages (projected for a full 17-game season and rounded to the nearest whole numbers) for 10 basic statistical categories plus 1 team stat. The order is Edmunds’ followed by Kuechly’s followed by Leonard’s:

 

Combined tackles: 129, 157, 158

Solo tackles: 82, 99, 101

Assisted tackles: 47, 58, 57

Tackles for losses: 7, 11, 9

QB hits: 4, 4, 6

Sacks: 2, 2, 4

Forced fumbles: 1, 1, 5

Fumble recoveries: 0, 1, 2

Interceptions: 1, 3, 3

Passes defended: 8, 10, 9

Team’s defensive unit ranking (in yards allowed per game): 5, 12, 13

 

Keep in mind here that these individual statistical averages are comparatively higher for Kuechly versus Edmunds partly because they include Kuechly’s peak athletic years during his middle 20’s. Also keep in mind that Kuechly’s numbers are comparatively lower to Leonard’s partly for the same averaging-out reason (as well as the different defensive systems in which they played).

 

CONCLUSION: You know what? No, I’m not going to do this. Here are the stats. The haters are free to draw whatever conclusions they want. I’ve already determined for myself (which incorporates X’s and O’s analyses from people whose opinions I respect…think: Greg Cosell types) that Edmunds is a top 20 NFL LB and still has potential to be much more. Many of you probably gave up on Josh Allen when he was 23 years old, but I’m not going to do that to Tremaine. I’m more than happy to have him as a Buffalo Bill for at least 1 more year. He’ll have every opportunity to establish his true second contract market value next offseason.

Love the "projected" stats.   Heres one, Kuechly had more tackles in his first 3 years than Edmunds has in 4, he could of spotted him a season and he had more.    I would call that quite a difference.   Exactly how is it unfair to compare Edmunds to a guy drafted in the same draft in a round lower?  Didnt we use a 1 and the first pick in the 3rd round to get him, but its unfair to compare him to a 2nd rounder?

Edited February 4, 2022 by billsfan714

[SoMAn]

No

[Governor]

On 2/3/2022 at 11:04 AM, oldmanfan said:

The stuff about Edmunds is ridiculously silly at times.  People keep saying he’s a bad MLB or that he should be moved to OLB.  Read this carefully:

 

We play two LBs.  For someone to be a MLB, he has to be between two other LBs.  Anyone ever take high school geometry?  Milano and Edmunds play our two LB spots, they both have responsibilities in the run and pass game, and Edmonds in particular has a lot of pass protection responsibility in the middle of the field.  If you want a MLB like Butkus or Lewis, then yell at McD to go to a 4-3 or 3-4.  

 

Edmunds has room to improve.  His diagnosis of plays is still not what it should be.  But you also have to ask what he is being asked to do in the defense, and how much the defensive plan affects his play.  You keep him for another year, and hopefully Frazier and McD realize they have to be more aggressive.  I’d like to see them encourage Edmunds to be more aggressive and play downhill more.

This post could’ve been from last season. Here we are a year later and he still sucks just the same.

 

We understand what his responsibilities are. We’re saying that he isn’t good at those responsibilities. 

[DapperCam]

7 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I'd love to trade him, and a lot of posters here mention this, but how much trade value does he actually have?

 

Surely not nearly as much as Bills fans posting here think he has.

 

 

I meant trade for an affordable vet MLB to compete with Edmunds. I worded it ambiguously, apologies.

[oldmanfan]

25 minutes ago, Governor said:

This post could’ve been from last season. Here we are a year later and he still sucks just the same.

 

We understand what his responsibilities are. We’re saying that he isn’t good at those responsibilities. 

You don’t really understand his responsibilities unless your name is McDermott or Frazier.

[Victory Formation]

Would you guys have any interest in the Cowboys Leighton Vander Esch? Maybe send them a 4th round pick and sign him to a modest 3yr $24M deal or something in that neighborhood? Maybe move Edmunds for two 2nd round picks? Anyways, he is a guy a liked a lot more than Edmunds coming out. We get a solid starter at half the price. Cuts our salary cap down and we get multiple draft picks in the process.
 

Give me LVE all day over Edmunds. Less money, more production, more draft picks.

[LABILLBACKER]

14 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Would you guys have any interest in the Cowboys Leighton Vander Esch? Maybe send them a 4th round pick and sign him to a modest 3yr $24M deal or something in that neighborhood? Maybe move Edmunds for two 2nd round picks? Anyways, he is a guy a liked a lot more than Edmunds coming out. We get a solid starter at half the price. Cuts our salary cap down and we get multiple draft picks in the process.
 

Give me LVE all day over Edmunds. Less money, more production, more draft picks.

Most if not all NFL teams know his deficiencies. We'd be lucky to get a 3rd round pick and nothing more. And that's only because of his age. He's has 4 full seasons to figure it out and that light bulb never went on.

[Mat68]

Yes.  At a lower cap hit than his 5th year option.

Edited February 5, 2022 by Mat68

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 1/25/2022 at 9:10 PM, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

I find if kind of funny the most popular choice is to trade him when you consider that it seems like about 75% of the posters here say he sucks.  If so, why would any team trade for him unless they are happy getting a 6th or 7th rounder in return as that's all a guy who sucks is worth?

 

If they don't extend him or find a trade partner they are on the hook for a $12.7 mil cap hit so realistically the only option likely is to extend him.  Do think the Bills and most everyone not an arm chair GM thinks much higher of him too.

I say swallow that 12.7 for 1yr or trade him , U can’t cut him and lose all 12.7 mil that’s not a option. 

[Governor]

8 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I'd love to trade him, and a lot of posters here mention this, but how much trade value does he actually have?

 

Surely not nearly as much as Bills fans posting here think he has.

 

 

There’s always a team out there that thinks they can fix a player but I’d say a mid-3rd and maybe a later pick along with it. Definitely not a 2nd unless it’s a team that doesn’t value draft picks like the Rams.

 

I think we need to replace both LBs. Bring in a vet and draft another somewhat early. I wanted that last season but now the situation is dire.

Edited February 5, 2022 by Governor