How BOTH coin tosses contributed to the Bills loss against the Chiefs

[Einstein]

Much of the media is focusing on the inequality of OT due to a coin toss that allows one team to win without the other touching the ball.

 

However, I hypothesize that both coin tosses are of similar blame.

 

To be clear, I do not contend that the original (before game) coin toss rules are unfair or need to be changed. This is not a complaint post or an excuse post. It's simply something I find interesting.

 

Coin Toss 2: When you win the coin toss in OT, you are awarded not only the ball but also an opportunity to “steal” an entire possession from your opponent. That is, with a TD, your opponent never touches the ball. This is Minus-1 drive for the coin toss loser.

 

Coin Toss 1: The pre-game coin toss also comes with the potential to gain an extra possession. When you win the coin toss before regulation, you are not only awarded the choice to receive or defer, but you are also awarded an opportunity to “steal” a possession from your opponent if you play it right. This happens when you defer, then possess the ball last in the 2nd quarter, and receive it again during the 3rd quarter kickoff. This is also Minus-1 drive for the coin toss loser.

 

Because the Chiefs won BOTH coin tosses, they were able to “steal” TWO entire possessions from the Bills.

 

The Chiefs ended up with 11 Drives/Possessions, and the Bills ended up with 9 Drives/Possessions. Because there were no turnovers on either side, the balance stayed at 2 stolen possessions. The Chiefs scored 42 points on 11 possessions and the Bills scored 36 points on  9 Possessions. 

 

Summary: The Bills actually scored more per possession than the Chiefs. But the opponent simply had two entire extra drives in which to score with.

 

PS, I took a look at every playoff game over the past 3 years in the NFL, and on average the winner of the coin toss had close to 1.5 more minutes of possession. The average possession in the NFL is about 2.5 minutes. Which tells me that the winner of the coin toss is a stealing a possession in about 2 of every 3 games. Ish.

 

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Edited January 25, 2022 by Einstein

[Kwai San]

This goes both ways dude......many games the Bills have won the toss.....MANY.

[beebe]

The Chiefs missed their FG attempt at the end of the 2nd quarter, so they didn't successfully double dip. Also, it has been proven per an ESPN analysis a few years ago that teams don't gain an actual advantage in terms of win-loss percentage by kicking off first. 

 

When you kick off first, as the Chiefs did, and give up an opening-drive TD, as the Chiefs did, it can really snowball and backfire on you. Imagine if Mahomes didn't find McKinnon for the miraculous 3rd-and-6 completion on their opening series. The Chiefs would have been punting to the Bills, trailing 7-0, after the Bills had already used up the first seven minutes of the clock. Buffalo could have taken a commanding 14-0 lead and rendered the Chiefs' pre game plan useless. 

 

It works both ways. 

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

This goes both ways dude......many games the Bills have won the toss.....MANY.

 

Of course.

 

I never said it was unfair.

[BrooklynBills]

As with most things, everyone is trying to add or complicate things with OT. I think the answer is really simple. Get rid of the coin toss altogether.

 

At both the start of the game and in OT, Home team gets the option to receive, kick, or defer just like if they had won the coin toss.

 

No more OTs "coming down to a coin toss." Also makes earning home field advantage much more important(as it should be).

 

With OT, everyone will know the stakes well before the game even starts which I think is part of if not most of the issue.

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, beebe said:

The Chiefs missed their FG attempt at the end of the 2nd quarter, so they didn't successfully double dip. Also, it has been proven per an ESPN analysis a few years ago that teams don't gain an actual advantage in terms of win-loss percentage by kicking off first. 

 

Scoring is irrelevant in terms of potential to score.

 

The more drives you have, the more potential you have to score. Whether you do so or not.

[Frostbite]

Not sure you can blame the first coin toss (or even the second in OT) for the loss. But nice work with the stats, very interesting. This is going to be a stretch but is there any correlation with increased points scored or wins? Seems like there should be with extra possessions. Would be cool to see how much of an advantage winning the coin toss could be (theoretically of course).

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, Frostbite said:

Not sure you can blame the first coin toss (or even the second in OT) for the loss.

 

I agree. This was only a tiny factor, but one I thought interesting none-the-less.

 

5 minutes ago, Frostbite said:

This is going to be a stretch but is there any correlation with increased points scored or wins? Seems like there should be with extra possessions. Would be cool to see how much of an advantage winning the coin toss could be (theoretically of course).

Probably very little, and here is why.

 

Most teams do not have the offensive firepower of Kansas City.

 

If you gave the Lions an extra 2 possessions per game, there is a very likely chance that they score nothing with those two possessions. Same goes for probably a dozen other teams. So when looking at an overall aggregate, you are likely to see very little difference.

 

BUT, when you give an offensive juggernaut 2 extra possessions - like KC, or Buffalo - You are much more likely to get another score (and perhaps a win) out of the additional attempts.

 

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Edited January 25, 2022 by Einstein

[Heitz]

Josh also called both opposite of how he normally does.  Called heads at the beginning (when he normally calls tails), it was heads.  Went back to tails in OT and it was head.

 

Interesting post though OP.  I'm not sure what the OT solve is, but does seem like a bummer to not have both teams touch the ball.  One thing I would def not do is just give the home team the choice, that feels even less fair!

[beebe]

I actually like the general concept of the OT rule, but the problem is, it needs to be a harder decision than it currently is. It's currently a no brainer for every team to take ball first given the starting field position is the 25 yard line. If you gain 8 yards and go 3-and-out and punt, you can still flip field position and pin the opponent inside their own 15 yard line. That's the exact same thing as kicking off first—except it's better! 

 

I would modify the rule. If you want ball first, you start at your own 10 yard line. Possibly even your own 5 yard line. You have to find the appropriate starting point where even a team like the Chiefs might contemplate playing defense first, depending on opponent, weather conditions, etc. If starting backed up deep in your own territory, now a 3-and-out has you punting out of your own end zone, and the opponent could be set up for an easy FG. 

 

I truly think the rate of teams choosing offense vs defense will be near 50/50 if you get the starting field position nailed down. 

[msw2112]

11 minutes ago, beebe said:

I actually like the general concept of the OT rule, but the problem is, it needs to be a harder decision than it currently is. It's currently a no brainer for every team to take ball first given the starting field position is the 25 yard line. If you gain 8 yards and go 3-and-out and punt, you can still flip field position and pin the opponent inside their own 15 yard line. That's the exact same thing as kicking off first—except it's better! 

 

I would modify the rule. If you want ball first, you start at your own 10 yard line. Possibly even your own 5 yard line. You have to find the appropriate starting point where even a team like the Chiefs might contemplate playing defense first, depending on opponent, weather conditions, etc. If starting backed up deep in your own territory, now a 3-and-out has you punting out of your own end zone, and the opponent could be set up for an easy FG. 

 

I truly think the rate of teams choosing offense vs defense will be near 50/50 if you get the starting field position nailed down. 

 

This is an interesting concept.  I would say that the 5 yard line would be too extreme and the 10 borderline, but the 15 yard line would be a good spot in this scenario.  Or maybe the 12 1/2....With modern offenses, the 25 is too advantageous to the offense.

[Gordon Lightfoot]

My two cents:

The OT coin toss should be replaced by net yards....The team with the best net yards(Offensive yards gained less defensive yards given up +/- special teams yards should get the ball in OT first

[NewEra]

Not sure why anyone would put through themselves through such torture. 
 

I still haven’t looked at anything regarding the game other than posts on this site, including any media posted here

[LABILLBACKER]

Start calling heads. I think we lost like 4 straight coin tosses dating back to the Jest game?

[Patrick Duffy]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

Much of the media is focusing on the inequality of OT due to a coin toss that allows one team to win without the other touching the ball.

 

However, I hypothesize that both coin tosses are of similar blame.

 

To be clear, I do not contend that the original (before game) coin toss rules are unfair or need to be changed. This is not a complaint post or an excuse post. It's simply something I find interesting.

 

Coin Toss 2: When you win the coin toss in OT, you are awarded not only the ball but also an opportunity to “steal” an entire possession from your opponent. That is, with a TD, your opponent never touches the ball. This is Minus-1 drive for the coin toss loser.

 

Coin Toss 1: The pre-game coin toss also comes with the potential to gain an extra possession. When you win the coin toss before regulation, you are not only awarded the choice to receive or defer, but you are also awarded an opportunity to “steal” a possession from your opponent if you play it right. This happens when you defer, then possess the ball last in the 2nd quarter, and receive it again during the 3rd quarter kickoff. This is also Minus-1 drive for the coin toss loser.

 

Because the Chiefs won BOTH coin tosses, they were able to “steal” TWO entire possessions from the Bills.

 

The Chiefs ended up with 11 Drives/Possessions, and the Bills ended up with 9 Drives/Possessions. Because there were no turnovers on either side, the balance stayed at 2 stolen possessions. The Chiefs scored 42 points on 11 possessions and the Bills scored 36 points on  9 Possessions. 

 

Summary: The Bills actually scored more per possession than the Chiefs. But the opponent simply had two entire extra drives in which to score with.

 

PS, I took a look at every playoff game over the past 3 years in the NFL, and on average the winner of the coin toss had close to 1.5 more minutes of possession. The average possession in the NFL is about 2.5 minutes. Which tells me that the winner of the coin toss is a stealing a possession in about 2 of every 3 games. Ish.

 

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Even though KC won coin toss and deferred to start game, Bills scored on that 1st series, also KC missed FG at end of the half so didn't get to double dip. So I'm not sure how pregame toss contributed

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

 

Even though KC won coin toss and deferred to start game, Bills scored on that 1st series, also KC missed FG at end of the half so didn't get to double dip. So I'm not sure how pregame toss contributed

 

Scoring is irrelevant in terms of potential to score.

 

The more drives you have, the more potential you have to score. Whether you do so or not.

 

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