Thoughts on draft

[MarkyMannn]

25 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

That isn’t realistic based on draft history.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

 

 

Great article but 7 years old

[OldTimer1960]

7 minutes ago, MarkyMannn said:

Great article but 7 years old

Do you think it has changed drastically?  If yes, why?

 

I am not trying to be argumentative.  I love and follow the draft very closely - have since the mid-80s.  If things have changed, I need to reset my expectations.

[ScorpionZero]

I know I'll get roasted for this but I'd like to see Hassan Haskins and Xander Horvath in the backfield together with new OL coach using some of the principles of Michigan's o-line. Ground and pound and our passing offense. Switch it up however it's needed.

[SoCal Deek]

I love reading these mock drafts! It’s hilarious to see how society has changed. Some of the player names seem totally made up. There are some really creative parents out there! 

[MarkyMannn]

4 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Do you think it has changed drastically?  If yes, why?

 

I am not trying to be argumentative.  I love and follow the draft very closely - have since the mid-80s.  If things have changed, I need to reset my expectations.

No I doubt it's changed much.  But newer results would be great. Of course that assumes there's a new article out there LOL

[LyndonvilleBill]

4 hours ago, ScorpionZero said:

I know I'll get roasted for this but I'd like to see Hassan Haskins and Xander Horvath in the backfield together with new OL coach using some of the principles of Michigan's o-line. Ground and pound and our passing offense. Switch it up however it's needed.

Won't get roasted by me. Would like to have Horvath back there instead of Gilliam and I actually mocked him when I picked up extra 7ths. Plus he has upside and would rather have him over Moss.

[ScorpionZero]

25: R1 P25 WR Jameson Williams - Alabama

57: R2 P25 RB Breece Hall - Iowa State

89: R3 P25 DL Haskell Garrett - Ohio State

129: R4 P25 CB Cam Taylor-Britt - Nebraska

168: R5 P25 G Cade Mays - Tennessee

184: R6 P6 LB D'Marco Jackson - Appalachian State

202: R6 P24 CB Isaac Taylor-Stuart - USC

229: R7 P10 FB Zander Horvath - Purdue

244: R7 P25 P Matt Araiza - San Diego State

[ScorpionZero]

Round 1 Pick 26: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida (A)
Round 2 Pick 26: John Metchie, WR, Alabama (A+)
Round 3 Pick 26: Perrion Winfrey, DT, Oklahoma (A+)
Round 4 Pick 26: Cade Mays, OG, Tennessee (A+)
Round 5 Pick 26: Hassan Haskins, RB, Michigan (A+)
Round 6 Pick 6: Neil Farrell Jr., DT, LSU (A+)
Round 6 Pick 25: Josh Thompson, CB, Texas (A+)
Round 7 Pick 10: Matt Araiza, P, San Diego State (A+)
Round 7 Pick 26: Zander Horvath, FB/RB, Purdue (A+)

[ScorpionZero]

25.

Kaiir Elam

CB Florida

57.

Devonte Wyatt

DT Georgia

89.

Wan'Dale Robinson

WR Kentucky

129.

Cam Taylor-Britt

CB Nebraska

168.

Hassan Haskins

RB Michigan

184.

Grant Calcaterra

TE SMU

202.

Justin Shaffer

OG Georgia

229.

Bubba Bolden

S Miami-Fl

244.

Matt Araiza

P San Diego State

[NewEra]

@ScorpionZero

maybe put the mocks in the new dedicated mock draft thread made a couple days ago? Or maybe create your own mock draft thread?   I’m sure you’ll be posting at least 2k more mocks by the time the draft comes around.  
 

I just don’t see mocks as “thoughts on the draft”.  No thoughts involved in a mock. 
 

no offense intended, I enjoy your content.  
 

edit: just saw your last mock, with Wyatt taken in rd 2…..lol. Yeah….

Edited March 7, 2022 by NewEra

[BADOLBILZ]

On 3/1/2022 at 2:24 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

But BPA isn't a fixed concept. Are they taking the best player available based on what they have put on tape to this point? Or are they taking the best player available based on ceiling? Or are they taking the guy they judge capable of having the biggest impact on the team (which is where positional value comes in)? 

 

I am sure the Bills will take the top guy on their board. But how they build the board will depend to an extent on which of the three strategies they are employing.

 

 

Yeah and this draft is LOADED with guys who have shown some good things on tape and have outstanding measurables............but haven't ACTUALLY dominated..........the 3 Georgia DL are all good examples of bigger school guys who didn't actually make a lot of plays that evaluators can hang their hats on as proof of what they will do at the next level.    

 

And those aren't the guys who would normally come to mind first........those might be guys like Mafe or Christian Watson or Woolen etc..   There is a lot of projecting to be done in this draft.    I think it's living up to the hype from a year ago as being "very deep" but the reason why it wasn't that clear earlier is that there was a lot of late blooming and some of that might be due to two years of covid setbacks/limitations.    

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah and this draft is LOADED with guys who have shown some good things on tape and have outstanding measurables............but haven't ACTUALLY dominated..........the 3 Georgia DL are all good examples of bigger school guys who didn't actually make a lot of plays that evaluators can hang their hats on as proof of what they will do at the next level.    

 

And those aren't the guys who would normally come to mind first........those might be guys like Mafe or Christian Watson or Woolen etc..   There is a lot of projecting to be done in this draft.    I think it's living up to the hype from a year ago as being "very deep" but the reason why it wasn't that clear earlier is that there was a lot of late blooming and some of that might be due to two years of covid setbacks/limitations.    

 

It is the most mixed up draft I have ever looked at. Whether covid and the unusual nature of the last two years is the reason, who can say? But it is definitely an odd and unusual class around whom I think there will rightly be less consensus than normal. 

[Boatdrinks]

On 3/3/2022 at 3:29 PM, SoCal Deek said:

I love reading these mock drafts! It’s hilarious to see how society has changed. Some of the player names seem totally made up. There are some really creative parents out there! 

Creative is one word for it... sure has changed. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is the most mixed up draft I have ever looked at. Whether covid and the unusual nature of the last two years is the reason, who can say? But it is definitely an odd and unusual class around whom I think there will rightly be less consensus than normal. 

 

 

Part of me wonders if they didn't intentionally speed up that 40 yard dash track to encourage future participants to run.    Put some fresh, tacky rubber pallets in and pack them down so it's more like a track than a field.   The combine has such a big TV audience now that having players opt not to perform because they think they can do better at their pro day doesn't make sense.

 

Football doesn't provide that many opportunities to skew performance but US sports fans are very familiar with major league baseball intentionally altering the baseball to make it spin faster or travel further(or not as far) so we are familiar with such shenanigans.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Football doesn't provide that many opportunities to skew performance but US sports fans are very familiar with major league baseball intentionally altering the baseball to make it spin faster or travel further(or not as far) so we are familiar with such shenanigans.

 

Isn't just you guys.... modern soccer balls are like pillows compared to even the balls the Premier League was using 15 years ago.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Isn't just you guys.... modern soccer balls are like pillows compared to even the balls the Premier League was using 15 years ago.

 

 

Yeah I suppose you look a lot more skillful when the ball is easier to control..........much like NFL receivers(or Kenny Pickett) with these crazy tacky gloves..........or NFL DB's in the early 80's with stick 'em (you missed that era lol).

 

I knew this was likely to be a fast class..........Jameson Williams might be the fastest player I've ever seen in college last season.........he was making great athletes look foolish.    But for nearly EVERY position group to be the fastest ever..........that's a red flag. 

 

Still.......lotta', lotta' athletes in this one.

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Part of me wonders if they didn't intentionally speed up that 40 yard dash track to encourage future participants to run.    Put some fresh, tacky rubber pallets in and pack them down so it's more like a track than a field.   The combine has such a big TV audience now that having players opt not to perform because they think they can do better at their pro day doesn't make sense.

 

Football doesn't provide that many opportunities to skew performance but US sports fans are very familiar with major league baseball intentionally altering the baseball to make it spin faster or travel further(or not as far) so we are familiar with such shenanigans.

I think you are onto something here.  I wondered the same thing…

Edited March 8, 2022 by OldTimer1960

[Norcalbillsfan]

On 1/23/2022 at 10:36 PM, Ethan in Portland said:

Trade out of the first round

 

C/G, DE, CB, TE in the first two days

Man I'd agree with you in all cases, except if Jameson is there. He's already a freak, now he can learn under diggs... on a cheap deal. If Gabe continues to sky rocket he could command what the bills can't pay. And we would have Jameson ready to go. Just keep Allen's arsenal fully stocked.

[Motor26]

One thing to consider, last year they had 8 picks and 2 players ended up getting poached off the practice squad. I have a hard time seeing them being able to add anymore than 6 guys to the roster maybe 7 if one is a punter.

[freddyjj]

On 3/3/2022 at 12:46 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

Do you think it has changed drastically?  If yes, why?

 

I am not trying to be argumentative.  I love and follow the draft very closely - have since the mid-80s.  If things have changed, I need to reset my expectations.

I do believe the economics on 1st round picks having a cost controlled club option in Yr 5 has led to greater emphasis on high cost positions in Rd1. QB, CB, EDGE, WR, LT seem to be focus of Rd1 now