Dan Darragh Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing. Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge. I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rampage Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Home field is becoming overrated. It’s started to effect lines in Vegas this season as well. The bye week is brutal in the playoffs because you play a team that’s coming off the high of winning their first game, playoff jitters are gone and you’re coming in rusty after not playing in two weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloBillyG Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 This year it was. Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said: Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing. Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge. I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years. Has nothing to do with the byes, has everything to do with the lack of truly dominant teams this year. Tennessee and GB were very beatable. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buffblue Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said: Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing. Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge. I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years. Not enough evidence to suggest this yet. Historically #1 seeds have a much stronger probability of reaching the Super Bowl. I would take the bye every single time 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punching Bag Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, Dan Darragh said: Seeing the Titans and the Packers swan dive their way out of the playoffs, it makes you wonder how much the first round bye ("more valuable this year than ever!") is a mixed blessing. Assuming you get through a first round playoff game without serious injuries, I think there's a lot of benefit to having played the previous week rather than having two weeks off (maybe more if your final week game was meaningless) and losing your edge. I wonder what the W-L record is for teams coming off the bye over the years. Well bonuses are paid for games paid not games you get a bye to (NFLPA is probably trying to change that) so there is certainly a benefit to playing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I'd say less of the bye being overrated as the teams this year. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nextmanup Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Statistically? Absolutely NOT! Getting that first week bye is HUGE. This year was weird, but that's a single data point. That's not how statistics work. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan130 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 (edited) I think it's the first time since 2010 both 1 seeds got knocked out after the bye. I am taking the bye and home field advantage all day Edited January 23, 2022 by BillsFan130 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BritBill Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It will be interesting to see the stats in 5-10 years time when we have a decent amount data from when it dropped to just one team getting a bye. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 (edited) I say this based on no data to back it up, but I think once a team has reached a Super Bowl recently the bye really can help. As an example it helped New England for a really long time. It could/would help a team like KC right now as well as the Bucs had they got it. I always thought it really helped the Bills in the 90's. If you really are the best team, and you have experience, I think it helps a ton. As for the rest of them, it's a wash. Edited January 23, 2022 by KzooMike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinky finger Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Apparently - given both precincts have been eliminated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beast Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 (edited) Nope. Not overrated. I'll take having to win two games to get to the SB, and having both at home, over having to win three. Edited January 23, 2022 by Beast 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Cubed Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Nah, both these teams were beatable. How about the “Look out for the running teams, come playoff time”? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sierra Foothills Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Data is our friend (so is science btw): "Since the NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams in the 1990 season, clubs coming off a first-round bye are 64-55-3 against the spread (53.8%) and 91-31 straight up (74.6%). Since 2015, those marks have jumped to 13-8-1 ATS (61.9%) and 18-4 SU (81.8%), including a 7-4 ATS / 10-2 SU run for No. 1 seeds." https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/2280404 Also relevant and possibly mitigating these numbers is that there has been a very recent 2 year trend of "road field advantage." Last season was the first year in NFL history where the road teams won more games than the home teams... 128-127-1 (.502). This season, home teams had a slim advantage, 137-131-1 (.511). https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/ 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QLBillsFan Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 41 minutes ago, FireChans said: Has nothing to do with the byes, has everything to do with the lack of truly dominant teams this year. Tennessee and GB were very beatable. Absolutely. Certainly fewer few thought Titans were going to SB. But GB that performance was a shocker. No dominant teams like Pats walking through years ago. Good for league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuco Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 44 minutes ago, Limeaid said: Well bonuses are paid for games paid not games you get a bye to (NFLPA is probably trying to change that) so there is certainly a benefit to playing. They already do get paid for bye weeks in the playoffs. Other than that, great post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomur67 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I just think that some teams just have bad games after the byes. The Bills had their worst game of the season after the bye against the Jags. Just hate to think what happened in that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Yeah, I couldn't care less about the bye. The team just needs to be playing at its best going into the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 The bye itself may not be overrated. The teams that had them were. I wondered going into the playoffs if this was a year where the bye mattered the least. No team was dominant and a team that gets hot at the right time can win it all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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