Josh - 16 games 2020 vs 2021 stats

[billsfan89]

Some regression in passing numbers but improvement in rushing. If this is what Josh is on an average year sign me up. However I think he only learns from this season. He broke out in 2020 and teams adjusted to that in 2021 and Josh still had a great season. But he needs to iron out the few bumps he had in 2021. Which I think he can and will in 2022.

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

As far as Beasley goes, IMO, you are are off the mark.

 

 

Nah. He's washed. 

[billsfan1959]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah. He's washed. 

 

In 15 games, Beasley has 78 receptions for for 662 yards. He has a 73% catch percentage, 33 (42%) of his catches have been for 1st downs, and 294 (44%) of his yards have been YAC.

 

His numbers haven't been quite what they were last year, you can say the same for every receiver outside of Knox. In fact, Diggs shows similar decreases in production (same statistical decreases in catch %, Y/trgt, etc) as Beasley. I think there are many contributing  variables.

 

IMO, Beasley may not have performed quite at the level he did last year, but I would hardly call him washed up.

[78thealltimegreat]

7 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I actually think what the Bills lack is YAC.  I dont know if its the receivers, the type of offense they run, or the way Josh throws the football but our team is one of the worst in the league in YAC.  Most of Josh's yards are air yards.

 

Josh is 3rd in completed air yards

The Bills are 18th in YAC

 

By comparison

 

Mahomes is 10th in completed air yards

Chiefs are 1st in YAC

 

How many times do we watch other teams throw dunk passes and they go for 10-20 yards.  Our offense completely lacks that aspect of the game.

Good point we really don’t have guys who do things after they catch it 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

In 15 games, Beasley has 78 receptions for for 662 yards. He has a 73% catch percentage, 33 (42%) of his catches have been for 1st downs, and 294 (44%) of his yards have been YAC.

 

His numbers haven't been quite what they were last year, you can say the same for every receiver outside of Knox. In fact, Diggs shows similar decreases in production (same statistical decreases in catch %, Y/trgt, etc) as Beasley. I think there are many contributing  variables.

 

IMO, Beasley may not have performed quite at the level he did last year, but I would hardly call him washed up.

 

He is noticeably slower to me out of his breaks. That is why more of the balls Josh has thrown his way this year have looked contested.

[CincyBillsFan]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Allen had 3 INTs. Baker had two, and the one on the final drive was completely on the receiver. Allen put the ball in jeopardy more than Mayfield did. They both had bad passing games. I'd argue Baker's game was less bad, and he was under a ton more pressure than Allen was.

 

You can guess that Allen might have had half as many sacks. But it's a guess.

 

Yes, passer rating doesn't look at runs. That's a strength just as much as a weakness.

 

You're right, I think, that no stats holistically capture the true level of play. Nothing does, really. It's impossible to separate the situation, the opponent, the pressure, and everything else. Nothing can, including viewer perceptions. Perceptions have large subjective components, which is why you get people arguing that this year Josh is better than he was last year, which appears nuts to most viewers.

 

It's too complex a system. Stats do a very good job, but certainly not perfect. Isolating any one factor in the wildly complex game of football is very difficult.

I disagree.  Allen threw the ball well (3 for 4 for 32 yards and also a 2 pt conversion throw) on the Bills two TD drives that won the game in the 2nd half.  Allen also threw the ball well on the first 2 TD drives of the game and on the 3rd drive before taking a bad risk in the throw to the end zone.

 

But watching both games IMO Allen's play, including his passing was much better then Mayfield's.  It was clear from my eye test.

 

 

[billsfan1959]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is noticeably slower to me out of his breaks. That is why more of the balls Josh has thrown his way this year have looked contested.

 

I think your eyes are deceiving you.

 

According to Next Gen Stats, here are the top 10 receivers in Yards of Separation per catch:

 

Rondale Moore        ARI    5.7
Byron Pringle           KC    4.2
Gerald Everett         SEA    4.1
Noah Fant                DEN    4.1
Dawson Knox          BUF    4.1
Braxton Berrios       NYJ    4.1
Mecole Hardman    KC    4.1
Cole Beasley           BUF    4
Jonnu Smith            NE    4
Robert Woods         LAR    3.8

[Logic]

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

As someone said upthread - the Bills need to add one or two YAC monsters to their offense.  Can’t remember the last time someone besides Allen broke a tackle upfield.  Defenses kept the Bills in front of them this season and they lacked the offensive personnel to take advantage of the space.  Beasley is WASHED.

 

1 hour ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

YAC is a real issue for the Bills this year. Of the top 9 QBs in total passing yards, all are also top 9 in YAC - except for Allen. Allen is 18th in YAC. The percentage of Allen's total yards that are YAC is significantly less than the other top QBs

 

 

I can't help but wonder:

How much of the Bills' lack of YAC is due to scheme, and how much is due to Allen's ball placement?

If I remember correctly, it sure seemed like this offense used to get big YAC numbers in New England. Why does it suddenly not get them here?

I know it's downright blasphemy to question Josh's throwing accuracy, but...is it possible his ball placement isn't always the best, and it's not often conducive to YAC? Or IS it a scheme thing?

Diggs and McKenzie, at the very least, should be good YAC guys. It's not like we don't have any on our roster.

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, Logic said:

 

I can't help but wonder:

How much of the Bills' lack of YAC is due to scheme, and how much is due to Allen's ball placement?

If I remember correctly, it sure seemed like this offense used to get big YAC numbers in New England. Why does it suddenly not get them here?

I know it's downright blasphemy to question Josh's throwing accuracy, but...is it possible his ball placement isn't always the best, and it's not often conducive to YAC? Or IS it a scheme thing?

Diggs and McKenzie, at the very least, should be good YAC guys. It's not like we don't have any on our roster.

One thing to factor in is the lack of deep ball success this season -- those plays where the QB hits someone over the top and they then run 40 yards for the score. Lots of overthrows this season, partly but not entirely due to weather. He hit more of those last season even though he still struggled with accuracy on those throws overall.

[billsfan1959]

7 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

One thing to factor in is the lack of deep ball success this season -- those plays where the QB hits someone over the top and they then run 40 yards for the score. Lots of overthrows this season, partly but not entirely due to weather. He hit more of those last season even though he still struggled with accuracy on those throws overall.

 

IMO, I see 3 primary reasons:

 

1.  I certainly do think there have been far more weather issues this year.

 

2. The complete instability along the Oline this year has really caused problems in putting together any type of rhythm in the passing game.

 

3. There has been a concentrated effort on the part of defenses this year to keep receptions in front of them. While Allen has thrown the same number of 40+ yd TDs (8) as he did last year, the 20+ yd completions where Allen made his living last year have been greatly reduced (33 this year vs 60 last year). I believe this strategy has been more successful against Buffalo as opposed to teams like KC because of (a) the ability to get pressure on Allen with just their front four, and (b) a complete lack of any kind of running game to keep defenses honest. That is why, IMO, the games Allen has been most successful in this year have been the ones where he took what the defenses this year have been willing to give him.

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

I think your eyes are deceiving you.

 

According to Next Gen Stats, here are the top 10 receivers in Yards of Separation per catch:

 

Rondale Moore        ARI    5.7
Byron Pringle           KC    4.2
Gerald Everett         SEA    4.1
Noah Fant                DEN    4.1
Dawson Knox          BUF    4.1
Braxton Berrios       NYJ    4.1
Mecole Hardman    KC    4.1
Cole Beasley           BUF    4
Jonnu Smith            NE    4
Robert Woods         LAR    3.8

 

I confess that does surprise me but I still say it is noticeable that he is not as sharp out of breaks this year as last. Washed might have been a strong term but I do think clearly on the decline.

[transplantbillsfan]

On 1/4/2022 at 3:58 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It should be left out. It's essentially pure luck.

 

How many fumbles you drop can be said to be on you. How many are recovered by which guys in which jerseys is basically pure luck.

 

He had nine fumbles last year and eight this year. Pretty much exactly the same. The fact that he was a bit luckier this year about who picked them up doesn't say much about his performance. Either way.

 

 

 

 

There are "pure luck" interceptions as well.  Like when balls are tipped or when a WR decides to stop running a route.

 

So should Allen's last 2 interceptions also be left out?

 

Or if you want to include all fumbles, not just fumbles lost, shouldn't we also count all of those interceptions that were dropped by defenders?

 

It's impossible to measure pure luck, so sticking with the actual turnovers themselves is what makes the most sense.

 

Interceptions up.

 

Fumbles lost down.

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I confess that does surprise me but I still say it is noticeable that he is not as sharp out of breaks this year as last. Washed might have been a strong term but I do think clearly on the decline.

But he’s also very clearly injured. Are we sure Beasley does not have a lingering rib problem? 
 

He was taking two steps and diving to the floor most of the year rather than risking getting hit. 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, FireChans said:

But he’s also very clearly injured. Are we sure Beasley does not have a lingering rib problem? 
 

He was taking two steps and diving to the floor most of the year rather than risking getting hit. 

 

Also a possibility.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is noticeably slower to me out of his breaks. That is why more of the balls Josh has thrown his way this year have looked contested.

 

It really stood out to me when McKenzie played the slot, we really gained some plays that weren’t there with Beasley.

We probably would have lost some plays Beasley makes, too - plays where he’s got a PhD in figuring out where the gaps in zone defense will be - but the Pats were playing a lot of man and i-Mac smoked them in a way Beasley can’t.

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

But he’s also very clearly injured. Are we sure Beasley does not have a lingering rib problem? 
He was taking two steps and diving to the floor most of the year rather than risking getting hit. 

 

Let’s hypothetically say Beasley had cracked ribs, couple of points:

1) is injured and hindered Beasley really better and more contributory than anyone else on the team?  McKenzie’s performance against the Pats says “maybe not” to me.  I know Beasley is a competitor, and it’s hard to keep him out, but sometimes I feel the team is “letting him call the shots” too much on whether to play or not.

2) cracked ribs are usually a 4-6 week injury, call it 8 weeks if he’s still putting stress on them.  This is 10 weeks.  Really should be healed.

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, Logic said:

 

I can't help but wonder:

How much of the Bills' lack of YAC is due to scheme, and how much is due to Allen's ball placement?

If I remember correctly, it sure seemed like this offense used to get big YAC numbers in New England. Why does it suddenly not get them here?

I know it's downright blasphemy to question Josh's throwing accuracy, but...is it possible his ball placement isn't always the best, and it's not often conducive to YAC? Or IS it a scheme thing?

Diggs and McKenzie, at the very least, should be good YAC guys. It's not like we don't have any on our roster.

 

It was slightly better last year.  The Bills ranked 11th.  A little over 200 YAC last season as a whole more.  Which is really only about 12.5 ypg.  Not that significant as a whole.  I looked up Diggs and Beasley. 

 

Vikings 1130 yards 308 yac ~0.27 avg per yards receiving

2021 Diggs 1144 yards 297 yac ~0.26 avg per yards receiving

 

So about the same.  

 

Last season in Dallas 672 yards 190 yac ~0.28 avg per yards receiving

2021 Beasley 662 yards  294 yac ~0.45 avg per yards receiving

 

Beasley actually got a lot more yac here than in his last season in Dallas.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It really stood out to me when McKenzie played the slot, we really gained some plays that weren’t there with Beasley.

We probably would have lost some plays Beasley makes, too - plays where he’s got a PhD in figuring out where the gaps in zone defense will be - but the Pats were playing a lot of man and i-Mac smoked them in a way Beasley can’t.

 

Let’s hypothetically say Beasley had cracked ribs, couple of points:

1) is injured and hindered Beasley really better and more contributory than anyone else on the team?  McKenzie’s performance against the Pats says “maybe not” to me.  I know Beasley is a competitor, and it’s hard to keep him out, but sometimes I feel the team is “letting him call the shots” too much on whether to play or not.

2) cracked ribs are usually a 4-6 week injury, call it 8 weeks if he’s still putting stress on them.  This is 10 weeks.  Really should be healed.

Beasley wouldn’t be washed, he would be hurt. No idea what your #1 means.

 

As for #2, 4-6 weeks is when you aren’t getting tackled on the football field every other week. Do you think ribs heal faster when you’re getting hit by NFL players? Doctors on Goodell’s payroll would love to see that data.

Edited January 5, 2022 by FireChans

[Bruffalo]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah. He's washed. 

 

I don't know about washed, he's definitely a starting caliber slot receiver in this league, maybe even top 15. That being said, I don't know how much better he is than Isiah McKenzie, who for whatever reason seems like he's on McDermott's naughty list. It feels like a Gabe Davis situation to me, almost everyone outside of the team wants to see him get more snaps, but for whatever reason he doesn't.

[Mr. K]

Maybe we should bring in Baker for some competition...

[Bruffalo]

2 minutes ago, Mr. K said:

Maybe we should bring in Baker for some competition...

Darnold already has dibbs on being the next Bills backup.