Democracy’s Fiery Ordeal: The War in Ukraine 🇺🇦

[ChiGoose]

15 minutes ago, B-Man said:

 

 

WELL, GOOD: 

 

Ukraine is winning.

 

https://hotair.com/headlines/2022/07/21/ukraine-is-winning-n484219

 

 

 

The HIMARS seem to be making a huge difference.

[Tiberius]

hope so!! 

 

 

[ChiGoose]

4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

hope so!! 

 

 

Normally, I would probably oppose this, but Russia was using negotiated green corridors to funnel civilians in and then bomb them. 
 

So… what goes around comes around, Ruskies. Too bad, so sad. 

[Tiberius]

So they signed an agreement to ship millions of tons of grain and then...Hope the grain gets shipped 

 

 

[Tiberius]

 

[Coffeesforclosers]

On 7/20/2022 at 2:44 PM, All_Pro_Bills said:

First, none of this has anything to do with what I want or what I don't want.  We have family of Ukrainian descent (my sister-in-law) and we've pitched in to help at the church with time and money for aid shipments.  So I'm hardly what others here suggest as some sort of Russian sympathizer or asset because I'm not buying into the propaganda about how well and great this war is going.  And when somebody responds with some"Putin" reference I don't know whether to laugh or cry.  There's a lot of needless death and suffering.  That's my base case here.  

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I don't buy that you're a Russian sympathizer either. I agree that there is a lot of needless death and suffering.  Our first principles are basically the same.

 

But this conflict started back in 2014.  When the State department's neocon extraordinaire Victoria Nuland and the CIA engineered the coup in 2014.  In 2016 Trump's in, she's out and a balance of power back-and-forth is in place.  In 2020 Biden's in and she's back in the club.  Under-secretary for Blinken assigned to finish the job.  

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This is the first time I've heard this line of argument.  Can you point me towards a source?

 

To fast-forward to today, in my view this war is already lost  But Washington refuses to allow Zelensky to sit down and discuss peace terms.  Europe is a disaster,  It should be pointed out these are the same cast of characters that FUBAR'd every single one of these regime change operations over the past 25+ years and its almost a guarantee this one is also going to end in abject failure.  

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Peace talks have been ongoing since February.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russia–Ukraine_peace_negotiations#April_2022.

Who's telling you that the US, specifically, is standing in the way of peace negotiations. I'm not saying we wouldn't sabotage peace negotiations, Richard Nixon deliberately ***** up peace negotiations in Vietnam so he could screw over LBJ, so there's precedent there.  Who's saying it's happening now?
 

As for Zelensky, the Ukrainians have offered permanent neutrality, they've offered to give up NATO membership forever, they've offered to give up EU membership forever, and generally Russia refuses these terms because they aren't the total annexation of Ukraine to Russia.  At this point no one trusts Russia, on account of they just negotiated to allow food exports out of Odessa...then fired missiles into Odessa the next day.  And they did this with Turkey, as close to a trusted go-between as exists for Russia and NATO right now, guaranteeing the treaty they just broke.

If the US had clearly stated there are no plans to put missiles in Ukraine or to advance the NATO alliance towards their border none of this would have happened.  But the US didn't say that because that's absolutely the objective.    

 

What you might be distracted from here is the big picture of changing alliances and transfer of power among the global players.  Do you really believe the US is playing from a position of strength?  Look at Biden's recent trip for clues.  The body language and how he came off as weak and begging for the Saudi's to increase oil output.  And he came away with nothing.  They did everything short of just laughing in his face.  This week Putin follows up with his visit.  Don't be surprised if Putin along with Xi eventually broker an armistice or peace deal between long time adversaries Iran and Saudi Arabia.  That will be a real kick in the toolbox for the US State Department.  The balance of power is shifting away from the US and these weak and ineffective leaders and constant threats of violence and military intervention and sanctions are accelerating the process as the world is looking for the exit ramp.  

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The big picture is what I'm looking at though?  Just because we are weak, does not mean our enemies are strong, or stronger. I'm not going to speculate on what Xi or Putin are going to do in the international stage when both of them have plenty of problems at home.  And domestic political consumption is all "Strongman Rulers" care about, because the buck can only stop with them.  For instance, Xi's "0 COVID" policy is a catastrophe, China's banking system is cracking up, China's demographic pyramid is inverting, and their economy is cratering.  The last one is pretty important, because China's basic social contract is "The Chinese people forfeit all their rights and liberties to the Chinese Communist Party, and in return the Chinese Communist Party provides ever greater wealth and social stability. No more, no less".

You're totally right global power dynamics are changing.  You are right that our power was waning.  Our enemies made the same evaluation, based on recent events and it was not unreasonable for them to do so.  What they dramatically over-estimated was the strength of their own positions relative to their objectives.  The Russians and to a lesser extent the Chinese have overreached horribly and are paying for it.

Apologies for the janky formatting.

 

Edited July 24, 2022 by Coffeesforclosers

[Coffeesforclosers]

On 7/22/2022 at 11:26 AM, ChiGoose said:

 

The HIMARS seem to be making a huge difference.

 

Depending on who you ask, the volume of Russian shelling has dropped between 50-66%.  

 

Simply put, Russia still has a massive, working infrastructure for manufacturing artillery ammunition. They've also got however many millions of shells 50 years of Soviet paranoia squirrelled away. Artillery ammunition quantity was never and will never be a problem for them.

 

Given the ass kicking they took from February-April, Russian generals sat back and reevaluated their strengths and weaknesses. The result was what we saw in May and June, no more blitzkrieg style attacks or fluid front lines. Just find the Ukrainians, attack them with some cannon fodder to hold them in place, and blast them until they die or retreat.  The Russians did this very well, Telegram is full of videos of Ukrainian trenches and bunkers reduced to craters and choked with human remains.  This is how they ultimately retook Luhansk.  It's how they planned to retake Donetsk, and its how they slowed Ukraine's Kherson counter-attack to a crawl.

 

Then HIMARS showed up. The Russians didn't really care at first, because they'd been told all of their air defense systems could shoot down HIMARS missiles. Except Putin's Military-Industrial Complex lied and nothing can shoot down HIMARs missiles. The Ukrainians evaluated Russian methods, and started blowing up every ammunition depot and command post they could find with HIMARS.  

 

Blowing up the ammo dumps was clutch. Russia had basically placed all its ammo dumps out in the open, in the best place to provide endless shells for its artillery. Because they thought these dumps were safe. So pre-HIMARs, Russian artillery could shoot as much as it wanted, whenever it wanted to.  Russian artillery needs to be able to shoot all day, every day too, because generally the quality of Russian infantry and tank units is absolutely horrible. But the quality of your soldiers doesnt matter nearly as much if youre just going vaporize everything in fron of them. So long as you have the ability to vaporize everything in front of them...

 

So now Russia has to figure out how to shoot down HIMARS. Until they do, they have to move all their ammo dumps out of HIMARS range, or watch them explode.  Which chokes off the supply of ammunition to their cannon, which means they can't just rinse Ukrainian units in artillery shells until they die. Which means they have to figure out a new strategy for how they plan to attack and defend anywhere on their front. 

 

And for the time being, Ukraine has the ability to blow up pretty much whatever it wants within HIMARs range. However, they dont have that many HIMARs, and they took an awful beating trying to hold Luhansk. So we're in a new phase of the war where hopefully Ukraine can cash in on their advantage and make some real gains. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[All_Pro_Bills]

On 7/23/2022 at 9:59 PM, Coffeesforclosers said:

But this conflict started back in 2014.  When the State department's neocon extraordinaire Victoria Nuland and the CIA engineered the coup in 2014.  In 2016 Trump's in, she's out and a balance of power back-and-forth is in place.  In 2020 Biden's in and she's back in the club.  Under-secretary for Blinken assigned to finish the job.  

 

  Quote

This is the first time I've heard this line of argument.  Can you point me towards a source?

 

Apologies for the janky formatting.

 

 In classical regime change fashion, in 2014 the CIA and State Department helped engineer the coup facilitated by the Maidan Uprising to remove former President Viktor Yanukovych.  Of course, on charges of corruption.  Which in Ukraine is simply standard practice.  And still is.  The real crime, resisting overtures from the EU and blocking potential NATO expansion with his "pro" Russia policies.  Of course you're never going to find any official source that admits the CIA and the State department actively participated in a regime change operation but start there with the smoke that leads to the fire.

 

The problem isn't so much the objective but rather the results as these Washington characters FUBAR each and every one of these operations and foreign interventions.  Wherever they tread, instability and disaster follow these operations.  By design, I suspect.  In this case the goal to weaken Russia, an existential threat to the Empire.  Of course there are other ways to do that without sacrificing the lives of a lot of citizens and soldiers in Ukraine that quite frankly won't see any change in their lives between the government that was removed and the one that's currently in power.  "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss" kind of stuff where in this case the only difference is who's making the payoffs and who's receiving them..  

[Tiberius]

 

 

 

[Tiberius]

4 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

 In classical regime change fashion, in 2014 the CIA and State Department helped engineer the coup facilitated by the Maidan Uprising to remove former President Viktor Yanukovych.  Of course, on charges of corruption.  Which in Ukraine is simply standard practice.  And still is.  The real crime, resisting overtures from the EU and blocking potential NATO expansion with his "pro" Russia policies.  Of course you're never going to find any official source that admits the CIA and the State department actively participated in a regime change operation but start there with the smoke that leads to the fire.

 

The problem isn't so much the objective but rather the results as these Washington characters FUBAR each and every one of these operations and foreign interventions.  Wherever they tread, instability and disaster follow these operations.  By design, I suspect.  In this case the goal to weaken Russia, an existential threat to the Empire.  Of course there are other ways to do that without sacrificing the lives of a lot of citizens and soldiers in Ukraine that quite frankly won't see any change in their lives between the government that was removed and the one that's currently in power.  "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss" kind of stuff where in this case the only difference is who's making the payoffs and who's receiving them..  

But why did Yanukkvych government start shooting its own people in 2014? 

 

Putin did not need to create this murderous war. The fault is all his. If Ukraine wants to join the EU it is their right. 

 

 

[ALF]

US officials say 'biggest fear' has come true as Russia cuts gas supplies to Europe

On Monday, Russia's state-owned gas company Gazprom said it would cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany in half, to just 20% of its capacity. A US official said the move was retaliation for western sanctions, and that it put the West in "unchartered territory" when it comes to whether Europe will have enough gas to get through the winter.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/politics/us-russia-europe-gas/index.html

[Tiberius]

2 hours ago, ALF said:

US officials say 'biggest fear' has come true as Russia cuts gas supplies to Europe

On Monday, Russia's state-owned gas company Gazprom said it would cut flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany in half, to just 20% of its capacity. A US official said the move was retaliation for western sanctions, and that it put the West in "unchartered territory" when it comes to whether Europe will have enough gas to get through the winter.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/politics/us-russia-europe-gas/index.html

Sh it 

[All_Pro_Bills]

On 7/25/2022 at 11:39 AM, Tiberius said:

But why did Yanukkvych government start shooting its own people in 2014? 

 

Putin did not need to create this murderous war. The fault is all his. If Ukraine wants to join the EU it is their right. 

 

 

The prosecution's case charged that snipers associated with the Berkut police unit killed or wounded Maidan protesters but no individual was convicted of any charges  Some witnesses testified that shots were fired from Maidan protester controlled buildings.  Not from any government held positions.  Some suggest it was a CIA false flag event.  What proof do you have that it wasn't the CIA that instigated and executed this pretext for regime change?  I mean, its not like they don't do this on a regular basis. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change

 

The US government is the king of foreign interference operations.

Edited July 26, 2022 by All_Pro_Bills

[Big Blitz]

There is no war

 

 

There is no fiery ordeal

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tiberius]

15 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

The prosecution's case charged that snipers associated with the Berkut police unit killed or wounded Maidan protesters but no individual was convicted of any charges  Some witnesses testified that shots were fired from Maidan protester controlled buildings.  Not from any government held positions.  Some suggest it was a CIA false flag event.  What proof do you have that it wasn't the CIA that instigated and executed this pretext for regime change?  I mean, its not like they don't do this on a regular basis. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change

 

The US government is the king of foreign interference operations.

Well, Russia was interfering too. We supported democracy, Russia oppression, assassinations and the crushing of hope and human dignity. 

 

You guys are losing badly here. It's nice to see the good guys winning 

[Tiberius]

One of our best diplomatic tools: health care. 

 

When American medics showed up in Vietnamese villages the people lined up for treatment. Just saying 

[aristocrat]

 

[Tiberius]

 

On 7/27/2022 at 7:14 PM, aristocrat said:

 

unforced error right there 

[All_Pro_Bills]

On 7/27/2022 at 8:05 AM, Tiberius said:

Well, Russia was interfering too. We supported democracy, Russia oppression, assassinations and the crushing of hope and human dignity. 

 

You guys are losing badly here. It's nice to see the good guys winning 

Rule number one is don't believe your own propaganda.  If you want to believe Ukraine is "winning" then be my guest.  Reality I expect is much different.  But that aside, the fundamental problem with your view here is the US has no strategic interest in Ukraine outside of a desire of some actors inside our government intent on containing or weakening Russia.  As Loydd Austin admitted.  Focusing on Russia is a major policy error out of Washington.  As the major threat is China.  If threats against the US Speaker of the House don't make that clear, then I expect nothing will.  In my opinion obsessing over Russia and close to ignoring China is perhaps the biggest policy error committed by Washington in the history of the nation.  It ignores the most vital interests and the biggest threat.    

 

What targeting Russia has resulted in is a 2 on 1 arrangement with China and Russia vs. the US.  Biden attempted, and failed, to alter this arrangement by meeting with Chinese leadership and pleading his case with Xi.  But the Chinese know the game too.  They clearly see the US as the number one threat to their ambitions, not Russia. Xi was not receptive to an arrangement with Biden and the US against Russia.  Now we're odd-man-out in the game.  Being the odd-man-out is a clear disadvantage.    

 

A strategic alternative of a policy of engaging with Russia would have put the US in a position to contain China or at a minimum exert more leverage.  I believe Russia would have been receptive to such an arrangement, establishing a 2 on 1 deal with the US vs. China.  For very little of any significance.  Getting Russia, OPEC, other producers to act against China or at least present the capacity to do so to Bejing.  And save Europe from social and economic disaster caused by sanctions.  Along with other consequences such as food shortages and higher prices.  And facilitating a peaceful resolution and avoiding conflict in Ukraine.  Such an arrangement would have left China as odd-man-out.  But at this point it's an opportunity lost.   

 

      

 

[Tiberius]

26 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Rule number one is don't believe your own propaganda.  If you want to believe Ukraine is "winning" then be my guest.  Reality I expect is much different.  But that aside, the fundamental problem with your view here is the US has no strategic interest in Ukraine outside of a desire of some actors inside our government intent on containing or weakening Russia.  As Loydd Austin admitted.  Focusing on Russia is a major policy error out of Washington.  As the major threat is China.  If threats against the US Speaker of the House don't make that clear, then I expect nothing will.  In my opinion obsessing over Russia and close to ignoring China is perhaps the biggest policy error committed by Washington in the history of the nation.  It ignores the most vital interests and the biggest threat.    

 

What targeting Russia has resulted in is a 2 on 1 arrangement with China and Russia vs. the US.  Biden attempted, and failed, to alter this arrangement by meeting with Chinese leadership and pleading his case with Xi.  But the Chinese know the game too.  They clearly see the US as the number one threat to their ambitions, not Russia. Xi was not receptive to an arrangement with Biden and the US against Russia.  Now we're odd-man-out in the game.  Being the odd-man-out is a clear disadvantage.    

 

A strategic alternative of a policy of engaging with Russia would have put the US in a position to contain China or at a minimum exert more leverage.  I believe Russia would have been receptive to such an arrangement, establishing a 2 on 1 deal with the US vs. China.  For very little of any significance.  Getting Russia, OPEC, other producers to act against China or at least present the capacity to do so to Bejing.  And save Europe from social and economic disaster caused by sanctions.  Along with other consequences such as food shortages and higher prices.  And facilitating a peaceful resolution and avoiding conflict in Ukraine.  Such an arrangement would have left China as odd-man-out.  But at this point it's an opportunity lost.   

 

      

 

The good thing is Putin's military is being smashed all up. 

 

Alternitive? You mean just let Russia murder the nation of Ukraine and perform genocide? No. Putin is losing