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Will a 10-7 record get the Bills into the Play-Offs?


RunJoshRun
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2 hours ago, RunJoshRun said:

Looking realistically at the Bills remaining 6 games AND their well documented DL & OL weaknesses can they split the final games on the schedule?  Losing Trey for the season may be a huge factor.

 

Monday nights game vs. New England could be the key to a play-off spot.

 

GO BILLS!


4 at hone, 2 on the road…they go 3-3… yeah no.

 

in the afc north and west divisions….games they have left within the division between their divisions


opponentsstarting next week…

 

BAL 4 div, Rams, packers

Cin  2 div, 3 west, SF

CLE 3 div , 1 west , packers

PIT 3 div, 1 west, min, ten

 

KC 4 div, 2 north

LAC 3 div, 1 north, giants, houston

 vegas 3 div, 1 n, indy, wash

DEN 4 div,1 n, det

 

those divisions are going to kill each other.

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Jpsredemption said:

I think there is a real chance this team misses the playoffs. Cannot see them beating the Pats or Bucs. 10-7 may not be good enough this year. 

I know many posters on here have a hard time facing this possibility.  Look at the way the Pats  and Bucs are playing.    We just got thumped at home badly by the colts , who were held to under 100 yds rushing by Taylor by the very good TB RUN DEFENSE!    In Indy!  Taylor had what , 280 yds and 4 tds plus another receiving on our home field ! We have to go there after facing s physical Pats D that is arguably now better than our d , even when we had Tre. Then look at the pats o who is running with good power backs and tight ends.  Their tight ends also play a significant role in their passing game. How good have we been in our history covering tight ends?   They beat a depleted Titans team, but the titans still have a good running game and I am not sure we could even now stop their offense.   
 

 But a bigger concern is the titans have a pretty good D , and yet the rookie QB guided them to 38 points I believe today ( didn’t see the whole game today ).  They could have had more as I saw jones overthrow one wide open tight end in the end zone.  Point is, they have a controlled , yet very efficient, underrated  passing game with wrs making decent yac!  We continue to struggle with ints, pressures, sacks, terrible pre snap penalties ,and an offensive line in flux with poor technique, guys recovering from Illness, and a offensive coordinator who has not developed an effective run scheme who somehow managed to keep the speed back off the field until the 9 th week !   Even against a poor saints team , we got 2.9 yards / carry, yet we had some explosive runs.   Brieda looked good in the screen game, yet again, he got less than 10 rushing attempts ( or close ) and we were only one possession ahead until right before half time.   None of this reality sounds good , but it is reality ( plus we are one of a number of 4 loss teams and the titans own that tiebreaker over us and the pats hold it over the Titans). Now add the loss of a true shut down corner and you have to realistically ask yourself , how in any way do we IMPROVE or cover up that huge loss ?  Will Mcd / Frazier come out of their 4-2-5  signature scheme ?  Hard to believe it happens, not impossible, but won’t believe it until I see it. 
 

Seems like a rough luck year for us, but also this year now feels like a year Beane did not do enough as he ran back an o line that was in need of one or two better FA’s ( gets credit for Brown but that’s been a very unexpected present ) while drafting a second DE , basham, who has spent the majority of his time inactive).  Ford , mongo with bad years, and your backups like Ike , bates have not done much better in limited action. Meanwhile., Belicheck. Brings in tight ends , Judon and the lb who returned from the fins , gets an offense DESIGNED with power running ( with our 4-2-5  in mind), and perhaps by luck but with good coaching , lands the most likely ROOKIE OPOTY , who is intelligent enough to know his strengths and learns that O in a way that unfortunately is way ahead of where Josh W’as as a rookie, not athletically, but as determined by running an effective offense with record results. 
 

 Finally, now the  BENGALS ARE AHEAD OF US IN THE WILD CARD PICTURE!  After just one year on top of the EAST, we look very vulnerable.  It is looking like Beane/ mcD got caught standing pat ( no pun );, while our one dimensional O we knew was a problem last year, saw sanders added as the big change.  Our big change of pressuring the qb ( chasing the chiefs ) has been little improvement from last year. We saw some early things from groot ( not bad against the run but has disappeared as a pass rusher ), while last years rookie dL epenesa ( we took as we bypassed dobbins who I know was unlucky with an Achilles) has done nothing impressive. Vernon butler shouldn’t be on an NFL roster as a former nfl tackle John Fina said  after watching his film against the colts,  the guy was on roller skates being blown out on multiple plays and was amazed how poorly our O line was ALSO getting pushed around as both lines looked bad!    To top off the complimentary football thought , we also let Roberts go , put mckenzie back there with a history of poor hands and who has looked indecisive fielding kicks ( until finally really hurting us against the colts , AND for so,e reason has also be taken out of the offense ).  We need to see if they let Stevenson continue to play as I don’t see the benefits of McKenzie as a kick returner only.   Just based on the past month of results , we are facing two hot teams back to back who frankly are bad matchup problems for us.  MAYBE  we stand a chance on Monday night , but I don’t see any sweep of the pats and frankly , I didn’t think we could have beaten the Bucs last year  and with Brady , no Tre , beating the Bucs in Tampa as they are seeking the #1 seed , looks impossible to me. I think you are spot on with 10-7.  If lucky we get to 11-6 just based on how our O will struggles with teams who can pressure the QB.  If we get swept by the pats , those afc losses look bad and 10-7 may not make it.   Even so, we would be on the road and we have struggled putting back to back wins together this year.
 

I hope for an offensive miracle with us catching on fire , but so far at 7-4 , no running game , it seems l9e a wasted year and I hope Beane learns we need o line and RB help and a true , quality pass rushing edge guy who can actually get sacks !   It is proving just placing all our hopes on Josh  is an error  as even HOF QBS,  Kelly and Elway and Manning , all needed a running game to be most effective.  Belicheck is proving it truly is 1/11  and a balanced offense seems the way to advance beyond December.   Felt bad as the colts were coming in hot and I am getting the same red flags approaching the Monday night pats game.  Man , I am so hoping to be wrong , but pats are playing solid football and Belicheck has mostly owned Mcd whom I think is having an uneven coaching year at best.  Maybe continuity is over rated and it’s time to get some new blood esp from the OC coordinator position.  Good defenses have not struggled causing Josh to struggle this year. Not being a  hater or just being negative , just looking at actual results.   Monday could change a lot , yet losing Tre may be the final nail we just can’t overcome.  This is where we see how far Mcd has come in 5 years.  Watching the Pats stringing / stacking W’s as Josh talks about , is not confidence building!  

 

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3 minutes ago, DrPJax said:

I know many posters on here have a hard time facing this possibility.  Look at the way the Pats  and Bucs are playing.    We just got thumped at home badly by the colts , who were held to under 100 yds rushing by Taylor by the very good TB RUN DEFENSE!    In Indy!  Taylor had what , 280 yds and 4 tds plus another receiving on our home field ! We have to go there after facing s physical Pats D that is arguably now better than our d , even when we had Tre. Then look at the pats o who is running with good power backs and tight ends.  Their tight ends also play a significant role in their passing game. How good have we been in our history covering tight ends?   They beat a depleted Titans team, but the titans still have a good running game and I am not sure we could even now stop their offense.   
 

 But a bigger concern is the titans have a pretty good D , and yet the rookie QB guided them to 38 points I believe today ( didn’t see the whole game today ).  They could have had more as I saw jones overthrow one wide open tight end in the end zone.  Point is, they have a controlled , yet very efficient, underrated  passing game with wrs making decent yac!  We continue to struggle with ints, pressures, sacks, terrible pre snap penalties ,and an offensive line in flux with poor technique, guys recovering from Illness, and a offensive coordinator who has not developed an effective run scheme who somehow managed to keep the speed back off the field until the 9 th week !   Even against a poor saints team , we got 2.9 yards / carry, yet we had some explosive runs.   Brieda looked good in the screen game, yet again, he got less than 10 rushing attempts ( or close ) and we were only one possession ahead until right before half time.   None of this reality sounds good , but it is reality ( plus we are one of a number of 4 loss teams and the titans own that tiebreaker over us and the pats hold it over the Titans). Now add the loss of a true shut down corner and you have to realistically ask yourself , how in any way do we IMPROVE or cover up that huge loss ?  Will Mcd / Frazier come out of their 4-2-5  signature scheme ?  Hard to believe it happens, not impossible, but won’t believe it until I see it. 
 

Seems like a rough luck year for us, but also this year now feels like a year Beane did not do enough as he ran back an o line that was in need of one or two better FA’s ( gets credit for Brown but that’s been a very unexpected present ) while drafting a second DE , basham, who has spent the majority of his time inactive).  Ford , mongo with bad years, and your backups like Ike , bates have not done much better in limited action. Meanwhile., Belicheck. Brings in tight ends , Judon and the lb who returned from the fins , gets an offense DESIGNED with power running ( with our 4-2-5  in mind), and perhaps by luck but with good coaching , lands the most likely ROOKIE OPOTY , who is intelligent enough to know his strengths and learns that O in a way that unfortunately is way ahead of where Josh W’as as a rookie, not athletically, but as determined by running an effective offense with record results. 
 

 Finally, now the  BENGALS ARE AHEAD OF US IN THE WILD CARD PICTURE!  After just one year on top of the EAST, we look very vulnerable.  It is looking like Beane/ mcD got caught standing pat ( no pun );, while our one dimensional O we knew was a problem last year, saw sanders added as the big change.  Our big change of pressuring the qb ( chasing the chiefs ) has been little improvement from last year. We saw some early things from groot ( not bad against the run but has disappeared as a pass rusher ), while last years rookie dL epenesa ( we took as we bypassed dobbins who I know was unlucky with an Achilles) has done nothing impressive. Vernon butler shouldn’t be on an NFL roster as a former nfl tackle John Fina said  after watching his film against the colts,  the guy was on roller skates being blown out on multiple plays and was amazed how poorly our O line was ALSO getting pushed around as both lines looked bad!    To top off the complimentary football thought , we also let Roberts go , put mckenzie back there with a history of poor hands and who has looked indecisive fielding kicks ( until finally really hurting us against the colts , AND for so,e reason has also be taken out of the offense ).  We need to see if they let Stevenson continue to play as I don’t see the benefits of McKenzie as a kick returner only.   Just based on the past month of results , we are facing two hot teams back to back who frankly are bad matchup problems for us.  MAYBE  we stand a chance on Monday night , but I don’t see any sweep of the pats and frankly , I didn’t think we could have beaten the Bucs last year  and with Brady , no Tre , beating the Bucs in Tampa as they are seeking the #1 seed , looks impossible to me. I think you are spot on with 10-7.  If lucky we get to 11-6 just based on how our O will struggles with teams who can pressure the QB.  If we get swept by the pats , those afc losses look bad and 10-7 may not make it.   Even so, we would be on the road and we have struggled putting back to back wins together this year.
 

I hope for an offensive miracle with us catching on fire , but so far at 7-4 , no running game , it seems l9e a wasted year and I hope Beane learns we need o line and RB help and a true , quality pass rushing edge guy who can actually get sacks !   It is proving just placing all our hopes on Josh  is an error  as even HOF QBS,  Kelly and Elway and Manning , all needed a running game to be most effective.  Belicheck is proving it truly is 1/11  and a balanced offense seems the way to advance beyond December.   Felt bad as the colts were coming in hot and I am getting the same red flags approaching the Monday night pats game.  Man , I am so hoping to be wrong , but pats are playing solid football and Belicheck has mostly owned Mcd whom I think is having an uneven coaching year at best.  Maybe continuity is over rated and it’s time to get some new blood esp from the OC coordinator position.  Good defenses have not struggled causing Josh to struggle this year. Not being a  hater or just being negative , just looking at actual results.   Monday could change a lot , yet losing Tre may be the final nail we just can’t overcome.  This is where we see how far Mcd has come in 5 years.  Watching the Pats stringing / stacking W’s as Josh talks about , is not confidence building!  

 


Nah

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57 minutes ago, djp14150 said:


4 at hone, 2 on the road…they go 3-3… yeah no.

 

in the afc north and west divisions….games they have left within the division between their divisions


opponentsstarting next week…

 

BAL 4 div, Rams, packers

Cin  2 div, 3 west, SF

CLE 3 div , 1 west , packers

PIT 3 div, 1 west, min, ten

 

KC 4 div, 2 north

LAC 3 div, 1 north, giants, houston

 vegas 3 div, 1 n, indy, wash

DEN 4 div,1 n, det

 

those divisions are going to kill each other.

 

 

 

 

 

That's what makes speculating on what it will take to make playoffs (or which ones to cheer for) hard. A bunch of playoff and "in the hunt" teams are about to lay waste to one another. Let's hope for a bunch of NFC victories over those AFC teams and with everyone beating up one another, and an upset or two, I wouldn't be shocked that a 9-8 team gets the #7 seed.

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4 hours ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

Depends on how we go 10-7:

 

If we beat NE 2x and NYJ to go 10-7, then very probably we WILL make the playoffs. Either because NE loses another game and we win the division, or because the 8-4 conference record is good enough to win tiebreakers.

If we beat NE 2x and some NFC team but lose to the Jets (!?!?), we probably make it. Either NE loses another game and we win the division, or we squeak in with a 7-5 conference record.

If we split with NE and beat NYJ plus 1 NFC team, we own a 7-5 conference record but NE has a great chance to win the division at 11-6 or 12-5 (they would lose the tiebreaker if they end up at 10-7 with us). Most likely we get into the playoffs but need some help.

If we split with NE, lose to the NYJ and beat 2 NFC teams... a 6-6 conference record is probably not going to get us into the playoffs. We'd need a fair amount of "help".

If we lose 2x to NE, beat the NYJ and 2 NFC teams... again with the 6-6 conference record and needing a ton of help to get in at 10-7.

If we lose 2x to NE and the NYJ, but win 3 against the NFC... forget it. We'll lose the tiebreakers.

Great breakdown of the tiebreakers.

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3 hours ago, DrPJax said:

I know many posters on here have a hard time facing this possibility.  Look at the way the Pats  and Bucs are playing.    We just got thumped at home badly by the colts , who were held to under 100 yds rushing by Taylor by the very good TB RUN DEFENSE!    In Indy!  Taylor had what , 280 yds and 4 tds plus another receiving on our home field ! We have to go there after facing s physical Pats D that is arguably now better than our d , even when we had Tre. Then look at the pats o who is running with good power backs and tight ends.  Their tight ends also play a significant role in their passing game. How good have we been in our history covering tight ends?   They beat a depleted Titans team, but the titans still have a good running game and I am not sure we could even now stop their offense.   
 

 But a bigger concern is the titans have a pretty good D , and yet the rookie QB guided them to 38 points I believe today ( didn’t see the whole game today ).  They could have had more as I saw jones overthrow one wide open tight end in the end zone.  Point is, they have a controlled , yet very efficient, underrated  passing game with wrs making decent yac!  We continue to struggle with ints, pressures, sacks, terrible pre snap penalties ,and an offensive line in flux with poor technique, guys recovering from Illness, and a offensive coordinator who has not developed an effective run scheme who somehow managed to keep the speed back off the field until the 9 th week !   Even against a poor saints team , we got 2.9 yards / carry, yet we had some explosive runs.   Brieda looked good in the screen game, yet again, he got less than 10 rushing attempts ( or close ) and we were only one possession ahead until right before half time.   None of this reality sounds good , but it is reality ( plus we are one of a number of 4 loss teams and the titans own that tiebreaker over us and the pats hold it over the Titans). Now add the loss of a true shut down corner and you have to realistically ask yourself , how in any way do we IMPROVE or cover up that huge loss ?  Will Mcd / Frazier come out of their 4-2-5  signature scheme ?  Hard to believe it happens, not impossible, but won’t believe it until I see it. 
 

Seems like a rough luck year for us, but also this year now feels like a year Beane did not do enough as he ran back an o line that was in need of one or two better FA’s ( gets credit for Brown but that’s been a very unexpected present ) while drafting a second DE , basham, who has spent the majority of his time inactive).  Ford , mongo with bad years, and your backups like Ike , bates have not done much better in limited action. Meanwhile., Belicheck. Brings in tight ends , Judon and the lb who returned from the fins , gets an offense DESIGNED with power running ( with our 4-2-5  in mind), and perhaps by luck but with good coaching , lands the most likely ROOKIE OPOTY , who is intelligent enough to know his strengths and learns that O in a way that unfortunately is way ahead of where Josh W’as as a rookie, not athletically, but as determined by running an effective offense with record results. 
 

 Finally, now the  BENGALS ARE AHEAD OF US IN THE WILD CARD PICTURE!  After just one year on top of the EAST, we look very vulnerable.  It is looking like Beane/ mcD got caught standing pat ( no pun );, while our one dimensional O we knew was a problem last year, saw sanders added as the big change.  Our big change of pressuring the qb ( chasing the chiefs ) has been little improvement from last year. We saw some early things from groot ( not bad against the run but has disappeared as a pass rusher ), while last years rookie dL epenesa ( we took as we bypassed dobbins who I know was unlucky with an Achilles) has done nothing impressive. Vernon butler shouldn’t be on an NFL roster as a former nfl tackle John Fina said  after watching his film against the colts,  the guy was on roller skates being blown out on multiple plays and was amazed how poorly our O line was ALSO getting pushed around as both lines looked bad!    To top off the complimentary football thought , we also let Roberts go , put mckenzie back there with a history of poor hands and who has looked indecisive fielding kicks ( until finally really hurting us against the colts , AND for so,e reason has also be taken out of the offense ).  We need to see if they let Stevenson continue to play as I don’t see the benefits of McKenzie as a kick returner only.   Just based on the past month of results , we are facing two hot teams back to back who frankly are bad matchup problems for us.  MAYBE  we stand a chance on Monday night , but I don’t see any sweep of the pats and frankly , I didn’t think we could have beaten the Bucs last year  and with Brady , no Tre , beating the Bucs in Tampa as they are seeking the #1 seed , looks impossible to me. I think you are spot on with 10-7.  If lucky we get to 11-6 just based on how our O will struggles with teams who can pressure the QB.  If we get swept by the pats , those afc losses look bad and 10-7 may not make it.   Even so, we would be on the road and we have struggled putting back to back wins together this year.
 

I hope for an offensive miracle with us catching on fire , but so far at 7-4 , no running game , it seems l9e a wasted year and I hope Beane learns we need o line and RB help and a true , quality pass rushing edge guy who can actually get sacks !   It is proving just placing all our hopes on Josh  is an error  as even HOF QBS,  Kelly and Elway and Manning , all needed a running game to be most effective.  Belicheck is proving it truly is 1/11  and a balanced offense seems the way to advance beyond December.   Felt bad as the colts were coming in hot and I am getting the same red flags approaching the Monday night pats game.  Man , I am so hoping to be wrong , but pats are playing solid football and Belicheck has mostly owned Mcd whom I think is having an uneven coaching year at best.  Maybe continuity is over rated and it’s time to get some new blood esp from the OC coordinator position.  Good defenses have not struggled causing Josh to struggle this year. Not being a  hater or just being negative , just looking at actual results.   Monday could change a lot , yet losing Tre may be the final nail we just can’t overcome.  This is where we see how far Mcd has come in 5 years.  Watching the Pats stringing / stacking W’s as Josh talks about , is not confidence building!  

 

Great review of the team overall.  It's what I was thinking when I wrote the post.  We have weaknesses that can't be repaired by band-aid schemes.

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

So you think we are going 3-4? Honestly we don't deserve to make the playoffs if that is the case.

 

This team is far too talented for that.

we have 6 games left - - 3-3 will get us to 10-7.   Far too talented - not really.

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If CMC is healthy the Carolina is no gimme, Atlanta isnt great but they are still in the playoff hunt, while Patterson & Ryan can cause enough problems for our defense.
 

Belichick hasnt forgotten the whooping we gave him last year and  we should expect to be on the receiving end this year. I'll never expect to beat a team lead by Brady.


Great expectations lead to great disappointments. Seeing how this team bounces back in 2022 will be a big test for Allen and McDermott

 

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6 hours ago, DrPJax said:

I hope for an offensive miracle with us catching on fire , but so far at 7-4 , no running game ,

 

 

And yet we are still 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 31 points per game. What a waste on this offense. .... Truth: We've had two really bad games (Jacksonville and Indy), and only one game we did not have a chance to win. R.E.L.A.X

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Bills have an average to poor conference record (5-4), losing on MNF may lose them the division (probably).  Haven't looked into the strength of schedule tiebreaker stuff, but 4 non-division leaders are within 1 game of the Bills, so there could (easily?) be 4-5 AFC teams at 10-7; so 10-7 not good enough unless the tie breakers somehow break your way.  

 

Given the tiebreaker who-knows problem above, Winning the Division is essential, IMO.  Which makes MNF for sure the game of the year.  Lose it and (1) you're a game and a half behind; (2) the Pats go into a bye week and come out rested and (3) we travel to a top 5 team on a short prep week .... not a good scenario at all.    Winning on MNF and losing to TB is ok, the reverse is not.  

 

 

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10-7 i'd say puts us at about 50% shot at getting in.  even if we got in at 10-7, that would be totally backing into the playoffs and would rightly be called an afc chip game loss let down year.  the bills have played really inconsistently, and if we go 500 to close out, it basically proves we are can crushers and can't stand w a good team, and we don't deserve to be in it.

 

no star and no 49 made our run D look much worse than it really is, but that's still a huge issue that i don't think many of us have confidence in.  now that tre is out, our pass d is gonna fall off some and our O and special teams will have to pick up some slack.

 

how we play over the next 6 games not only determines our playoff story, but i think solidifies what this team really is.

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12 hours ago, Jpsredemption said:

I think there is a real chance this team misses the playoffs. Cannot see them beating the Pats or Bucs. 10-7 may not be good enough this 

So those teams have flaws and lost to ***** teams but b.c you hate the Bills you think it only applies to them. 

 

Bucs lost to the WFT and the Bills destroyed WFT.

 

Patriots lost to the dolphins and the Bills swept the dolphins.

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12 hours ago, Jpsredemption said:

I think there is a real chance this team misses the playoffs. Cannot see them beating the Pats or Bucs. 10-7 may not be good enough this year. 

I am so glad that you think we stand a chance against Jets. That gave me hope!

 

On a more serious note, some people are just crazy. We are not finishing 10-7. We are not losing twice to Pats. We are still more likely to sweep them than getting swept by them. It is amazing how these "fans" show up always after a loss or two. We are a good team a there is no question about us getting into playoffs.

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