Never seen Josh under center so much

[Doc]

Yeah being under center is the key now.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

This is what I've been calling out for last 2 years.  Running game and play action game more effective when he's under Center.

 

I know he sees field better in shotgun but he's more effective under Center.  There was a Stat last year that had his passed rating 20 points higher when under Center.  

 

Will also make his runs more effective too. 

yes.. 

10 points higher, lower comp but, much better Y/A

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/splits/

Edited November 16, 2021 by Over 29 years of fanhood

[Logic]

It's hard not to feel like the best offense for Josh Allen would be more of a classic dropback Air Coryell type scheme instead of Ehrhardt Perkins. Whereas the latter emphasizes intelligence and communication and tends to stress the defense horizontally, the former emphasizes downfield passing, chunk plays, and stressing the defense vertically. 

Of course, in order to properly run an Air Coryell offense, we'd need a better running game and better pass protection from the o-line. I'm not suggesting that we scrap an offense that Josh has spent four years learning, I'm just suggesting that I wonder if the type of system we run now is really the best utilization of his skillset.

 

Edited November 16, 2021 by Logic

[Hapless Bills Fan]

49 minutes ago, Dukestreetking said:

 

Bills are 21st in league in shotgun (59%) vs under center. So they aren't really a shotgun heavy team. Highest is Bal at 96% . Via sharpfootballstats.

 

I couldn't find game to game breakouts, so I don't know if Sun was a significant deviation.

 

Where in the Sharp Football Stats page is this?  I was looking.  Thanks.

Oh ha ha I can tell you this. 

Pro-football-reference also gives splits in the free part of the site.  They aren't updated yet for Sunday (think they update Weds or Thurs).

They show the bills as 355 of 528 plays from Shotgun, or 67%.

 

So just that one game, Sunday, looks to have lowered the Shotgun % by 8%.

That's a *****-ton of "under center" for one game.

 

The problem with the shotgun/center split wasn't so much the % of plays in each - it was the combination of % in each with the % we run vs pass from each.

Under center was overwhelmingly run (71%).  Shotgun was overwhelmingly pass (also 71%). 

 

My guess is combined with personnel groupings by down and distance and other tendency stats, an opposing DC could probably figure out when the Bills were gonna run and when the Bills were gonna pass with something like 90% accuracy.  Combine that with not having a realistic "long run" threat, and what's what allows  Bills opponents impunity to run those overload stunts and twists where they smash through one side of the line while leaving "no one home" on the other - even if the Bills run and they give up 8 yds, "So what?" on a 3rd and 12?

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, colin said:

i dunno why we never did it much before, but on paper an athletic qb with a quick release should do better under center than in the shotgun.  

 

I think Josh is more comfortable passing from shotgun because he can more quickly scan the secondary for post-snap changes in coverage.

 

I also think he has trouble, not with the footwork per se but with Mitch Morse stepping on his feet.  Mitch seems to have a relatively narrow stance for a 6'6" dude and Josh, as a 6'5" dude, needs a wide stance to get low enough for an under center snap.  

 

I forget what the show was but last year at some point, Peyton Manning pointed out that Josh's stance leaves his feet in position for his C or G to step on them if they need a quick balance step back and Josh doesn't get his feet out of the way fast enough.  Josh commented on "4th and Forever" with Mark Sanchez that he's "always getting his feet stepped on" and "it doesn't feel too good" when it's cold out.  (He said it's his fault for not getting his feet out of the way fast enough, to which Sanchez said "it almost has to be, right?")

 

While it was working better, there was probably low motivation to polish this, but the Bills need to run effectively, and if they can't run effectively from Shotgun, they need to put Josh under center to pass more often.

 

We'll see if the Bills remain committed to this.

[YattaOkasan]

2 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Stay multiple.  Utilizing Gilliam a bit will help the run game.  Helps protect Josh and decent check down option vs a linebaker.  Teams that want to sit back and play coverage against Buffalo may not in 21.  I feel teams have a grasp of our 12 personal spread looks.  By changing the personal groups and even changing players while in 12 puts way more strain on the defense.  This should be what Buffalo looks like week in and out.  Lining up Diggs, Beasley, Sanders with Allen in the gun play in and out puts the pressure on Allen figuratively and literally.

Did you mean 11 personnel spread looks (you later list an 11 personnel grouping)?  I dont think weve run a lot of 12 especially lately since Knox has been out.  

 

Overall I agree with a lot of posters including you.  I think we had been trying to figure out how to run from shotgun.  This week (I also felt like there was more in the KC game) it felt like we said lets pass from under center.  thats pretty dangerous cause zone against the bigger personnel groupings will cause chunk plays in the run game.  Man is tough cause we can basically just have Diggs run a route that will beat you.

[JESSEFEFFER]

3 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Anybody else see this? 

 

 

Watching at home, both the camera and I have problems following the ball when Josh does these fakes from under center which is a sign that he is pretty good at them.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Did you mean 11 personnel spread looks (you later list an 11 personnel grouping)?  I dont think weve run a lot of 12 especially lately since Knox has been out.  

 

Overall I agree with a lot of posters including you.  I think we had been trying to figure out how to run from shotgun.  This week (I also felt like there was more in the KC game) it felt like we said lets pass from under center.  thats pretty dangerous cause zone against the bigger personnel groupings will cause chunk plays in the run game.  Man is tough cause we can basically just have Diggs run a route that will beat you.

 

We've run (1,2) and (2,1) at the same rate this year, about 8% which represents an increase. 

 

I think that it's a bit deceiving because we now list Gilliam as a FB whereas last year he was listed as a TE.  So if Gilliam is on the field with one of our halfbacks and Knox, it's a (2,1) set where last year it would have been called a (1,2) set.  And some sites still list Gilliam as a TE.  Confusion.   Then, we not infrequently split our RB and TE out as a WR, and we also line Knox up as an H-back at times. 

 

The point is, it's not as easy with the Bills to look at the personnel grouping frequency and figure out what they're playing on offense, one has to look at the film.

 

Anyway, agree with you that the sentence "I feel teams have a grasp of our 1,2 personnel spread looks" doesn't make sense because we don't run 1,2 that much, and while we do spread from it we don't always - it's more often been a goal line or run type of formation for us still.  "grasp of our 1,1 personnel spread looks" would make more sense.

 

Also agree with you that we've been trying to run from Shotgun and it hasn't worked, so if we can, a logical step is to shift to passing from under center to make running from under center more effective by making it less of a "tell" to a run play.  (I may be one of the posters you agree with, heh). 

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

We've run (1,2) and (2,1) at the same rate this year, about 8% which represents an increase. 

 

I think that it's a bit deceiving because we now list Gilliam as a FB whereas last year he was listed as a TE.  So if Gilliam is on the field with one of our halfbacks and Knox, it's a (2,1) set where last year it would have been called a (1,2) set.  And some sites still list Gilliam as a TE.  Confusion.   Then, we not infrequently split our RB and TE out as a WR, and we also line Knox up as an H-back at times. 

 

The point is, it's not as easy with the Bills to look at the personnel grouping frequency and figure out what they're playing on offense, one has to look at the film.

 

Anyway, agree with you that the sentence "I feel teams have a grasp of our 1,2 personnel spread looks" doesn't make sense because we don't run 1,2 that much, and while we do spread from it we don't always - it's more often been a goal line or run type of formation for us still.  "grasp of our 1,1 personnel spread looks" would make more sense.

 

Also agree with you that we've been trying to run from Shotgun and it hasn't worked, so if we can, a logical step is to shift to passing from under center to make running from under center more effective by making it less of a "tell" to a run play.  (I may be one of the posters you agree with, heh). 

 

 

Very fair points on positional flex.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Anybody else see this? 

 

 

 

Soooooooooo beautiful!

 

Allen is a magician (literally - he does slight-of-hand magic tricks).  Given a defined task ("figure out how to fool their eyes on D") there's no doubt in my mind that he's got the mental and physical chops to figure out how to make this work.

 

If the cameraman struggles to figure out where the ball is, no surprise that the defense is struggling.

 

The other thing is...one of the problems our OL seems to have had, is with the second level: when should they stay in and block/transfer or at least chip vs. getting out to the second level immediately?  

 

When we ran more successfully in 2019, we ran (1,2) and (2,1) sets each about 10% of the time and Pat Dimarco got about 16% of the offensive snaps (which some would say was a few snaps too many, be that as it may).  It was not uncommon to see him as a lead blocker on runs. 

 

I just hope this time McDermott maintains some oversight on the offensive play calling and run game design/use because I'm still not sure Daboll completely "buys in" to the need to make the opposing defense respect the run.

[Draconator]

I posted this in the post game thread. Josh had 305 yards passing off of play action. 2nd most since the inception of Next Gen stats. 

 

 

[RoyBatty is alive]

4 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Anybody else see this? 

 

 

That was a great video.

 

The play at 0.34 seconds was awesome.  It took me several times to be able to follow the ball, McKenzie goes by so fast i couldn't see the hand off, it was just a blur.  In real time I thought Moss had the ball.  Josh really impressed me with his fakes and handoffs, that is one aspect of his game I would bet he has worked hard on it it really was on display versus the jets.

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Did you mean 11 personnel spread looks (you later list an 11 personnel grouping)?  I dont think weve run a lot of 12 especially lately since Knox has been out.  

 

Overall I agree with a lot of posters including you.  I think we had been trying to figure out how to run from shotgun.  This week (I also felt like there was more in the KC game) it felt like we said lets pass from under center.  thats pretty dangerous cause zone against the bigger personnel groupings will cause chunk plays in the run game.  Man is tough cause we can basically just have Diggs run a route that will beat you.

Yes,  11 is what I was referring too with Diggs, Beasley, Sanders.  Spread works but without pace its not nearly effective.   

[Dukestreetking]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Where in the Sharp Football Stats page is this?  I was looking.  Thanks.

I have to retract: the mobile version is so glitchy that the dynamic tables make no sense, esp for 2021.

 

Indeed, the page says you should use PC not cell phone. If I figure it out, I'll let thread know.

 

Btw, data under Snap Rates: Shotgun v Under Center

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, Dukestreetking said:

I have to retract: the mobile version is so glitchy that the dynamic tables make no sense, esp for 2021.

 

Indeed, the page says you should use PC not cell phone. If I figure it out, I'll let thread know.

 

Btw, data under Snap Rates: Shotgun v Under Center

 

OK, even on a PC, I'm not convinced that table is showing what it asserts to be showing.  For "total snaps", it shows the bills as 100% under center which...ain't right.

 

I wish that guy would get a competent web designer, I think he's trying to sell his stats, but having the free side be so glitchy is not a good advertisement.

 

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Soooooooooo beautiful!

 

Allen is a magician (literally - he does slight-of-hand magic tricks).  Given a defined task ("figure out how to fool their eyes on D") there's no doubt in my mind that he's got the mental and physical chops to figure out how to make this work.

 

If the cameraman struggles to figure out where the ball is, no surprise that the defense is struggling.

 

The other thing is...one of the problems our OL seems to have had, is with the second level: when should they stay in and block/transfer or at least chip vs. getting out to the second level immediately?  

 

When we ran more successfully in 2019, we ran (1,2) and (2,1) sets each about 10% of the time and Pat Dimarco got about 16% of the offensive snaps (which some would say was a few snaps too many, be that as it may).  It was not uncommon to see him as a lead blocker on runs. 

 

I just hope this time McDermott maintains some oversight on the offensive play calling and run game design/use because I'm still not sure Daboll completely "buys in" to the need to make the opposing defense respect the run.

 

Apt description.

 

He looked totally comfortable/natural in his movement.  I think that is one aspect of the game he has dramatically improved. One thing Brady does so well after two decades of practice.  This ability is a tremendous asset with play action passes.

[Mango]

13 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

 I have to admit I kinda liked the Bills doing more I formation this week then I can remember recently and it actually seemed to work. 
 Since we don’t have a franchise back and are more by committee hey what the heck. 

 

This is something I have mentioned with Josh and EJ. Both had some mechanics and timing issues coming into the league, but both of their OC kept putting them in shotgun, which makes footwork more difficult.

In Josh's case, even as he has progressed, we have almost never passed when he is behind center. It is almost always a run. 

 

I am glad he played well under center. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I like Josh under center more too but didn't they set about every franchise offense record last year with Josh in shotgun a lot?

Defenses adjust and maybe being under center more is a good countermeasure. 

I like the play action and it opens up a lot of options.  But I also think the heavy sets with Bates and Sweeney lined up with Knox may have had more to do with run success than being under center.

Being under center does have one draw back. It limits but not eliminates Josh running the ball. Like it or not the QB running the ball is the modern NFL offense. Can Josh be a pure drop back QB? I think so but he is most dangerous mixing in some well timed runs. Think of the first few drives against Tenn when Josh running hand throwing was executed flawlessly. 

 

[Jerome007]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Gilliam was on the field 38% of the snaps...  Bates saw 19%, which is 12% more than his snaps replacing an OL starter at the end of the game.

The Bills evidently decided that if we can't run with 5 OLmen, we'll bring in extra blockers. 

This is GREAT. We've been saying it all week - and before. It's fine to say the OL is weak and all, but gameplan to help them! And that's what Daboll did this time. Bills have been so diverse that it helps whatever happens next.