We have a terrific field goal kicker we hate to use

[PromoTheRobot]

8 hours ago, zow2 said:

You have to have a feel for the game.  McD is still learning on the job.  There's a reason teams kick FG's on 4th down most of the time and don't go for it.  It's a time tested successful NFL strategy.  Get points.  There aren't that many possessions in an NFL game.  Get the 3 when it's there unless you absolutely must have 6+ points in crunch time.  Admittedly I'm old school and conservative when it comes to NFL games.

 

You can be a riverboat gambler when you have the upper hand. When you are getting pounded by their defense you take the points. This all is vaguely reminiscent of Super Bowl 25. The high-flying unstoppable Bills offense led by Jim Kelly. The DC Bill Belichick sold out against the pass. But did Kelly hand it off to Thurman Thomas to attack their two and three-man fronts? No. He had to answer the challenge in the air...and played right into the Giants hands.

Edited November 8, 2021 by PromoTheRobot

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

40 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

You can be a riverboat gambler when you have the upper hand. When you are getting pounded by their defense you take the points. This all is vaguely reminiscent of Super Bowl 25. The high-flying unstoppable Bills offense led by Jim Kelly. The DC Bill Belichick sold out against the pass. But did Kelly hand it off to Thurman Thomas to attack their two and three-man fronts? No. He had to answer the challenge in the air...and played right into the Giants hands.

 

I can agree that the Giants in XXV and the Jags yesterday both sold out to stop the pass. The gigantic difference is that Thurman was eating the Giants alive, whereas Singletary & Moss were utterly ineffective. 

 

Thurman Thomas in XXV

 

15 carries 135 yards 1 TD

 

Moss & Singletary combined stats yesterday

 

9 carries 22 yards

 

"riverboat gambling" would be trying to run the ball and settling for 65+ yard FGs. It's not like we went out there and called some stupid trick play that generated a huge loss to knock us out of FG range. We ran routine plays that ultimately did not work. Complaining about it is 100% hindsight

 

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I can agree that the Giants in XXV and the Jags yesterday both sold out to stop the pass. The gigantic difference is that Thurman was eating the Giants alive, whereas Singletary & Moss were utterly ineffective. 

 

Thurman Thomas in XXV

 

15 carries 135 yards 1 TD

 

Moss & Singletary combined stats yesterday

 

9 carries 22 yards

 

"riverboat gambling" would be trying to run the ball and settling for 65+ yard FGs. It's not like we went out there and called some stupid trick play that generated a huge loss to knock us out of FG range. We ran routine plays that ultimately did not work. Complaining about it is 100% hindsight

 

 

You know I never said kick a 65 yd FG. I said don't take a sack and put yourself needing a 65 yarder. Or kick a 45 yarder instead of going for it on 4th and fumbling.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

19 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

You know I never said kick a 65 yd FG. I said don't take a sack and put yourself needing a 65 yarder. Or kick a 45 yarder instead of going for it on 4th and fumbling.

 

The fumble was on 3rd down. Not to mention it would've been a 55 yarder

 

3rd & 2 at JAX 37

(5:41 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen right end to JAX 38 for -1 yards (D.Smoot). FUMBLES (D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-J.Allen at JAX 37.

 

You may be confusing it with this play where Ike had a false start:

 

4th & 2 at JAX 43

(10:04 - 4th) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BUF-I.Boettger, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 43 - No Play.

 

I doubt there's a single coach in the NFL that would have attempted a 61 yard FG instead of going for the 4th down there (and it's a moot point after the false start penalty). 

 

I think the sack in question is this play:

 

3rd & 7 at JAX 39

(1:17 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Allen sacked at JAX 48 for -9 yards (D.Smoot).

 

That would've been a 57 yard FG attempt had we run the ball for no gain and with the way we were failing at running the ball (for the entire game and season) can you really fault the play call there? 

 

 

 

[MJS]

If you don't go for it on 4th down these days, you get crucified by fans, media, and everyone in-between. People spout "analytics" without even really knowing what they are talking about.

 

I think you should kick field goals unless the circumstance requires you to go for it on 4th down or you have less than 2 yards to gain. That's a conservative mindset, but at this point I just want the points. Daboll does not call the game well in short yardage, red zone, and goal line situations, in my opinion. Plus, when you suck at running the ball and can't get a push from your oline, going for it on 4th down is incredibly risky. So yes, maybe going for it and getting it does increase the win probability versus a field goal, that doesn't take into account your team's ability to actually gain those few yards.