Beane's Draft Picks: Is Allen His Only Success?

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

The fact of the matter is that draft misses are common, across the entire league.

The so called "experts" making the selections aren't nearly as effective as they should be.

 

 

The numbers says drafting is hard… even for those who have success drafting…  and your big point is that people hired to draft aren’t as good as they should be? How does that add up?

 

They’re only good or bad by comparison to the rest of their peers?
 

Unless there’s some magical being out there in the world that’s not a GM and is identifying talent at a rate greater than NFL executives… I’m not sure where you’re going with this? 

[LabattBlue]

The benefit of having a superstar NFL QB?  He can keep his team in games and maybe mask some of the GM’s mistakes. 

[FireChans]

On 10/20/2021 at 10:13 AM, GunnerBill said:

He didn't pick Tre White. 

 

I think lots of Beane's picks have been a success. Josh is the only one who has been an elite difference maker.

Beane is yet to draft a superstar besides his QB.  But that's a position that's worth more than the rest put together, so whatever.

[Motor26]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Beane is yet to draft a superstar besides his QB.  But that's a position that's worth more than the rest put together, so whatever.

Yes, but Allen has turned Diggs into a superstar, made Beasley 2nd team All-Pro, and had Knox playing at a pro bowl level before his injury. I’d also like to wait a few years to see what Groot and Brown turn in to. Both look to be potential game changers.

[Chaos]

On 10/20/2021 at 9:20 AM, Gugny said:

I'll preface with sharing my opinion that I think Beane is a fantastic GM and that I've liked the vast majority of his early round picks.

 

But reading various topics and comments here, I feel like the general sentiment on this board is that Beane's only decent pick has been Josh Allen.

 

According to many, the list of busts include (but is not limited to):  Moss, Singletary, Knox, Edmunds, Ford, Oliver and Phillips.

 

Maybe I'm a homer; but it's more likely that some people/"fans," are just impossible to please.

 

Need a LAMP icon for this thread. 

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Motor26 said:

Yes, but Allen has turned Diggs into a superstar, made Beasley 2nd team All-Pro, and had Knox playing at a pro bowl level before his injury. I’d also like to wait a few years to see what Groot and Brown turn in to. Both look to be potential game changers.

Yeah yeah, we were waiting to see what Ford and Zay Day turned into.

 

Diggs was already a superstar. Beasley was a good player (look at his contract) and Knox has played with Allen for 3 years.

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

12 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yes - it gives him more room for error.
 

Everyone misses more than they hit - you should not have to be forgiven for your misses. You should be applauded for your hits.
 

It’s a media/fan driven thing that’s really silly when you look at the data on drafting. TV analysts and fans want to cherry pick and say “He took player X, but look player Y was on the board and he’s an All-Pro now.” It doesn’t work that way and it’s created total misunderstanding as to how draft success should be measured. 

 

Honestly, he could’ve missed on JA and would still be better than an average drafter when compared to his peers. 
 

We really need people here to understand how difficult it is to draft and that Beane has been better than his peers (and way better than average) since taking over. It’s not just because of JA. He’s out drafted pretty much everyone when you look at each individual draft.

You are forgetting he has given away multiple picks to trade up.  If he missed on Allen he would be out of a job right now.  

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

 

Unless there’s some magical being out there in the world that’s not a GM and is identifying talent at a rate greater than NFL executives… I’m not sure where you’re going with this? 

 

I'm still waiting on the call I'm afraid. 

[GaryPinC]

18 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

After McDermott got the HC job back in early 2017 I believe there was already a "gentlemen's agreement" that Beane would be

the eventual GM.  There was a lot of speculation about this right after the Beane hire.

 

I believe there was "conversations" between McDermott and Beane about the 2017 FA and the draft.

I got no real evidence I just think that is what happened.

 

Beane got 'spurned" from taking over the GM job during the whole Gettleman/Hurney/Beane thing and I believe he was done with Carolina.

When Gettleman didn't get fired (he did a few months later only to have Hurney take over) he was already going to look for a new job.

McDermott had to know all of this and they became a team as soon as Sean got the HC job.

 

Hurney knew he f'd up and since has been a good friend with Beane thus the closeness between the two of them.

 

Footnote:  Gettleman went to the NYG in 2018 and has ruined the team since his return.

Well on April 30th, one day after firing Whaley, Wawrow's article includes this line:  https://www.boston.com/sports/nfl/2017/04/30/buffalo-bills-fire-general-manager-whaley-1-day-after-draft/

 

"Without going into detail, Pegula said he is close to hiring a general manager."

 

The Bills announced Beane had been interviewed the first time (without saying what day) on May 4th. https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/04/bills-announce-theyve-interviewed-front-office-candidate-brandon-beane/

He was officially hired on the 9th after a second interview.  But Pegula knew he was close on April 30th.

 

I have a hard time believing there was no contact between Beane and the Bills/McDermott before the draft.  Especially as McDermott was handed power over Whaley before the draft, and somewhere between January to April 2017 a decision was made to overhaul the FO.  Even after Pegula seemed to still support Whaley in 2016.  We'll never know what if any role Beane had in that 2017 draft, but I doubt he didn't at least advise McDermott in some capacity unofficially.

[TH3]

reading this thread...briefly...damn...some of you people are miserable effing sad sad people....

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

14 hours ago, FireChans said:

Beane is yet to draft a superstar besides his QB.  But that's a position that's worth more than the rest put together, so whatever.

 

I'd argue that Wyatt Teller is a superstar and a fantastic pick. 2nd team all-pro player with a 5th round pick is genius. 

 

Of course we didn't give him time to develop and traded him for next to nothing, but that doesn't change the fact it was a killer draft pick. 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

 

I'd argue that Wyatt Teller is a superstar and a fantastic pick. 2nd team all-pro player with a 5th round pick is genius. 

 

Of course we didn't give him time to develop and traded him for next to nothing, but that doesn't change the fact it was a killer draft pick. 

That’s a great point, if Wyatt was anchoring our line and an All-Pro as a fifth, that would be a huge feather in Beane’s cap.

 

Those kind of picks are what makes GM’s careers in the NFL.

Edited October 22, 2021 by FireChans

[JGMcD2]

9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

You are forgetting he has given away multiple picks to trade up.  If he missed on Allen he would be out of a job right now.  

That’s the furthest thing from the truth. 
 

I’d love to see some evidence on that. You’re speaking based on emotion and opinion with no objective information. 
 

I have displayed objective information related to the draft multiple times on this board - for when you clap back and say I’ve done the same thing. 

Edited October 22, 2021 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

That’s the furthest thing from the truth. 
 

I’d love to see some evidence on that. 

 

It would depend on record, right? If they had taken Rosen for example, he had a similar rookie year and we went 6-10 and then he flamed out and went 6-10, 6-10 in 2018, 19 and 20 then McDermott and Beane would be gone. No question about that. I suspect though that they'd have found a vet to come and Tyrod us to 9-7 again in one of those years and they would likely still be here though the seats would be warm going into this season. So many variables it is hard to know either way. Had they missed on the Quarterback and had three losing seasons as a result they would be out, but no guarantee that missing on the QB would have automatically meant three losing seasons. 

[JGMcD2]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It would depend on record, right? If they had taken Rosen for example, he had a similar rookie year and we went 6-10 and then he flamed out and went 6-10, 6-10 in 2018, 19 and 20 then McDermott and Beane would be gone. No question about that. I suspect though that they'd have found a vet to come and Tyrod us to 9-7 again in one of those years and they would likely still be here though the seats would be warm going into this season. So many variables it is hard to know either way. Had they missed on the Quarterback and had three losing seasons as a result they would be out, but no guarantee that missing on the QB would have automatically meant three losing seasons. 

He’s making the point that without Josh Allen, Beane’s drafts have been bad and would have gotten him fired. 
 

I’m talking purely from a return standpoint, that’s not true. No hypotheticals or anything. I’m saying - fine, let’s remove Josh from the equation and look at his drafts. They’re still above average and would not be grounds to fire him. 

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

He’s making the point that without Josh Allen, Beane’s drafts have been bad and would have gotten him fired. 
 

I’m talking purely from a return standpoint, that’s not true. No hypotheticals or anything. I’m saying - fine, let’s remove Josh from the equation and look at his drafts. They’re still above average and would not be grounds to fire him. 

When folks say "missed" usually they mean the player didn't work out.

 

Like, the Bills missed on Zay Jones.

 

If the Bills did everything the same, and Josh Allen sucked, there is no doubt McD and co would at least be on the hot seat. There's hundreds of examples in league history of a team tying themselves to a QB and getting fired when they suck.

[CaliBills]

I find it interesting on trying to say if a draft pick is successful or not.  Because in my opinion, it depends on the method on which a GM drafts players. 

 

Some GMs look for the most "NFL ready" players.  While Beane looks at ability/size and says "I trust our coaches to bring out the best and teach them" which I am sure is the fundamental agreement between Beane and McDermott.   If the coaches do their jobs, then these draft picks can become something special.

 

Examples: Knox, Edmunds, Allen, Rousseau, Spencer Brown

 

Then they sign vets that are proven to help develop those players along as well.  

 

Success vs Failure is not just a 1 person thing.  It falls on GM/HC/OC/DC/Assistants/Teammates/Executives/Scouts/hell maybe even the ball boys or equipment managers lol.

 

 

Edited October 22, 2021 by CaliBills

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

He’s making the point that without Josh Allen, Beane’s drafts have been bad and would have gotten him fired. 
 

I’m talking purely from a return standpoint, that’s not true. No hypotheticals or anything. I’m saying - fine, let’s remove Josh from the equation and look at his drafts. They’re still above average and would not be grounds to fire him. 

 

But GMs get fired on wins and losses. I have long argued they shouldn't necessarily but the reality is they do. A team loses 3 years in a row it doesn't matter what your drafts look like, you are gone. 

[JGMcD2]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But GMs get fired on wins and losses. I have long argued they shouldn't necessarily but the reality is they do. A team loses 3 years in a row it doesn't matter what your drafts look like, you are gone. 

That’s a hypothetical. That’s one reason why his argument doesn’t work. 
 

The second is that we can very easily and objectively look at Beane’s drafts without Josh Allen and see that he drafted well… and better than the majority of his peers.  
 

The title of this thread is Beane’s Draft Success… we’re purely discussing his ability to obtain value from the draft. 

[ColoradoBills]

12 hours ago, North Buffalo said:

What did you break.  I broke my thumb base of it twenty years ago.  They stuck 2 K wires in it for four weeks.  Had them sticking out of my hand.  At end of 4 weeks they unscrewed them... weird feeling still remember.  Every once in a while when the weather changes I get and ache like now... but no strength lost.

 

It was a lengthwise crack in the 4th Metacarpal.  We also made the K-wires in the Monument, CO plant I worked most of my life in.

No pain in the hand but I broke a large number of ribs (car accident) that still gives me some pain 20+ years later.