Week 4: Texans at Bills

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Still have to take the game seriously. Get 26 going early and keep playing good defense. Find a way to get another W.

[BillsfaninSB]

3 hours ago, corta765 said:

Anyone who says next week will be a blowout needs to watch the Texans against the Panthers and there other two games. They are vet heavy lineup that may not have talent but Culley has them playing hard. Teams like that are always tough because they have wayyy too much pride to rollover and Cooks is having a great year at WR. I don't think the Bills cover the game and I could see a 24-14 type game which is closer then people think but never necessarily in doubt either. Add in the KC game the week after and it feels like a game where fans me get more frustrated with how it plays out to get a win.

Hopefully the upside of the Steeler game is that this team will have the upmost urgency regardless who they play. 

[Beast]

5 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

Looks like Ashton Youboty and Merton Hanks had a baby.......kinda.

[ExWNYer]

5 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

Texans are a classic trap game with KC up next. I see a win but closer than it should be.

 

The cliched 'trap game' moniker was proven to be a false narrative years ago. The analytics and numbers don't support that drivel. It's just statistically not true and something emotionally fragile fans use to placate themselves in the unlikely event of an upset. Don't perpetuate the myth, educate yourself:

 

"Using Pro-Football-Reference’s wonderful game finder, I observed every game where a team above .500 played a below .500 team over the past 10 seasons (2002-2011). Over 1359 games, the above .500 team won 79.5% of the time. We must compare the above .500 team’s win percentage in trap games to this base rate of 79.5% in order to see if good teams lose at a statistically significantly higher rate.

 

Limiting the sample to our trap game definition (n=515), the above .500 team won 80.5% of the time, a full percentage point higher than in the full sample. Far from a losing more frequently, as we would expect by the trap game logic, good teams tend to do even better against worse teams the week before they play a good team. However, this difference is not statistically significant: a difference of means t-test yields a t-value of just 0.60. So we fail to reject the null hypothesis that good teams have a different win percentage in trap games than they do in any game against a sub-.500 team."

 

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/22/debunking-the-trap-game-and-letdown-game-myths/

[uninja]

[wjag]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

Looks like it's time for my annual "trap games don't exist" lesson.

 

There is NO historical difference in good teams' winning percentages against bad teams in the week before a supposedly "big" game.

 

 

I was listening to Greg Rosenthal's podcast on my way home today.  He was spouting some advanced analytics that suggested that  a good super bowl indicator is teams that smash the opponents they should smash.  My interpretation.  The Bills smashing the WFT was a good portend, the Ravens kicking a 66 yarder to sneak by the Lions was a bad portend of the team's chances of playing in February.  Not sure I agree or disagree, but I did find it interesting enough to drop it in here.

[LeGOATski]

59 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

So by that math he should have 8 this weekend. 

 

39 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Yep. And 65,536 TD passes in the season finale against the Jets. Hey, the Jets just might be capable. 

Unfortunately, it's an S curve. He'll plateau around 5

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

I posted about this quite a bit over the years as well as to the relevant study in Football Outsiders, should be able to find it in the search

 

I actually found the relevant link from 2017

 

 

 

hmmm....what about the "post beat-down letdown"?

2 hours ago, Blainorama5 said:

A Tale of Two Necks.  you decide.  😉

 

At least Grogan has a chin....

 

And he could play....one tough dude.

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

Trap games don't exist, except in the minds of uninformed sports fans.

 

 

So true, that’s what men and woman who do it for a living mention them all the time. What you said doesn’t follow logic or human nature. Which is to look ahead to a tough assignment etc.. 

[RunTheBall]

5 hours ago, chris heff said:

So should I be as worried about Davis Mills as some on this site told me to worry about Taylor Heineke?

Mills once though of paying a pre season visit to The Ralph, which should give him a psychological edge according to some posters.

 

What’s everyone going to moan about this week? The crowd? Nope. The wind? Nope. OMG A TRAP GAME! Nope, debunked. How about a 24% chance of rain? Josh doesn’t like his balls wet. that could be a big factor.

 

McD’s teams don’t take any opponent lightly. We should absolutely destroy the Texans. Doesn’t mean we will, any given Sunday, but please for the love of God this week can we stop looking for any little possible factor that could turn the balance against us.

[QCity]

5 hours ago, chris heff said:

So should I be as worried about Davis Mills as some on this site told me to worry about Taylor Heineke?

 

Never underestimate this fanbase's ability to hype up our next opponent as world-beaters. Mills is bad even using backup standards. Same as Washington, no excuse to lose this game.

[Mark Vader]

I'll be at this game. My one trip to Buffalo this year.

[MJS]

22 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

So true, that’s what men and woman who do it for a living mention them all the time. What you said doesn’t follow logic or human nature. Which is to look ahead to a tough assignment etc.. 

So you're saying that the actual stats are wrong and a few TV personalities are right?

 

Coaches and players certainly don't put any stock into the trap game myth.

[Rocky Landing]

3 hours ago, Blainorama5 said:

Yeah, but folks around here really need something to wring their hands about.   It's just the TBD way.  🤪

Note the name on the account: @PatsFanNH. He's a Pats* fan, just gently trolling.

[technobot]

I think Houston will play hard but this has Josh Allen Unleashed written all over it, preceded by this exchange:

"But, sir, the collateral damage..."

"Is a consequence we'll have to live with. God bless America. Air strike confirmed."

 

It's coming, folks, perhaps this week. The game that Nostradmus predicted at the end of his life. Hit everything for 500+ yards, 7 total touchdowns GOAT performance that will have the talking heads exploding. Bills defense keeps generating turnovers giving Allen even more chances to pad his stats.

 

Followed by "but it's only Houston..." When Allen "only" throws for 300+ 3TD the week after, there will be talk about "regression".

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, technobot said:

I think Houston will play hard but this has Josh Allen Unleashed written all over it, preceded by this exchange:

"But, sir, the collateral damage..."

"Is a consequence we'll have to live with. God bless America. Air strike confirmed."

 

It's coming, folks, perhaps this week. The game that Nostradmus predicted at the end of his life. Hit everything for 500+ yards, 7 total touchdowns GOAT performance that will have the talking heads exploding. Bills defense keeps generating turnovers giving Allen even more chances to pad his stats.

 

Followed by "but it's only Houston..." When Allen "only" throws for 300+ 3TD the week after, there will be talk about "regression".

I mean it is definitely true that Josh probably has all the reason in the world to want to obliterate the Texans after the last two times he's played them.

[Blainorama5]

5 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Note the name on the account: @PatsFanNH. He's a Pats* fan, just gently trolling.

I did NOT notice that.  Make much more sense.  🤪

[Big Turk]

37 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

So true, that’s what men and woman who do it for a living mention them all the time. What you said doesn’t follow logic or human nature. Which is to look ahead to a tough assignment etc.. 

 

Yeah that's the problem...they perpetuate the myth. It doesn't exist. Period.

[YoloinOhio]

 

[Dukestreetking]

4 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The guy wears a sign on his back that says, "D'arce choke available. No cost"