Week 3: WFT at Bills

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, RiotAct said:

I was actually thinking about something similar to this yesterday… there’s gotta be an advanced stat that’s something like “Quality Points Against” for defenses.  Because obviously, if the opposing team runs a punt back to, say, our 22 - but then has to settle for a Field Goal - the defense did their job very well.

 

Another good point.  The problem is I don't think there is anything that reflects even the basics let alone what you just mentioned.

I don't want to derail a weekly game thread on this kind of stuff but it just seems to me that so much relevance is given nowadays to "rankings"

of all kinds but the details that go into the rankings are so poorly considered. 

 

As much as I feel yards for or against should not be the end all in ranking offenses and defenses a recent change in the "stats" on the

official NFL.com site has removed the "Total Yards" for offenses and defenses.  They have it only broken down in rushing OR passing.

When that happened last year I was like WTF (or is WFT) is that about?

 

It really has got to the point where to rationally try to do a ranking has becomes so much of an "eye test" because of a lack of true relevant

data that I have ranted against these ranking to the point where poster criticize me for it.  In todays data driven world it just seems idiotic.

 

I'll get off my soapbox now.  LOL.  I will reiterate that you brought up a great "advanced stat" point.

[Coach Tuesday]

9 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

The problem is I don't think there is anything that reflects even the basics let alone what you just mentioned.

 

But there is!  Football Outsiders' DVOA takes all of this into account.  Their rankings for offense, defense and STs should be updated tomorrow.

 

EDIT: it's updated!  https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2021/dvoa-week-2-panthers-no-1-first-time-ever

 

Bills are ranked 2nd overall in defensive DVOA through 2 weeks.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Coach Tuesday

[maryland-bills-fan]

Is that team in DC called the WFT or the WTF?  

 

[ColoradoBills]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

But there is!  Football Outsiders' DVOA takes all of this into account.  Their rankings for offense, defense and STs should be updated tomorrow.

 

True but DVOA is an attempt to break down a "play by play" adjusted stat against the norm.  I'm not going to get into the pro's and con's of that.

I do accept it's importance but not a lot of media or average NFL fan uses DVOA as a true ranking for talking points.

I'm not criticizing DVOA but the general consensus today for ranking is "yards for or against".  Comparing those against DVOA is about as

extreme as you can get. 

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

20 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

True but DVOA is an attempt to break down a "play by play" adjusted stat against the norm.  I'm not going to get into the pro's and con's of that.

I do accept it's importance but not a lot of media or average NFL fan uses DVOA as a true ranking for talking points.

I'm not criticizing DVOA but the general consensus today for ranking is "yards for or against".  Comparing those against DVOA is about as

extreme as you can get. 

 

 

But the situation you cited - where a defense has to defend a short field - should be captured in their measurements.  I guess I’m not sure what you think their analytics doesn’t cover but should.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

11 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

But the situation you cited - where a defense has to defend a short field - should be captured in their measurements.  I guess I’m not sure what you think their analytics doesn’t cover but should.

 

it was @RiotActthat brought up the short field scenario.

 

I will admit I watched DVOA a bunch when it came out and I feel I'm fairly educated about it's calculations but I am not an expert at all.

I haven't looked at them since about the middle of last season and I would be interested in their latest update (I believe you said

tomorrow is an update).  I would like to see how the rankings compare to the "standard" NFL rankings.

 

If I got time tomorrow and don't paint my garage shop like I should I will throw out a thread comparing the two.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

it was @RiotActthat brought up the short field scenario.

 

I will admit I watched DVOA a bunch when it came out and I feel I'm fairly educated about it's calculations but I am not an expert at all.

I haven't looked at them since about the middle of last season and I would be interested in their latest update (I believe you said

tomorrow is an update).  I would like to see how the rankings compare to the "standard" NFL rankings.

 

If I got time tomorrow and don't paint my garage shop like I should I will throw out a thread comparing the two.

 

Update was today I linked to it above.

[Bob in STL]

I think the Bills have a much better team and will prevail but I expect the FT’s to play hard and challenge for awhile.  Rivera will have them ready.  
 

9.5 is a big spread but I see this one looking like: 

 

Bills - 31

WFT - 20 

 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

3 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

*runs and hides*

 

While I have been thrilled and totally proven wrong about McKenzie as a returner, I am worried that it is taking its toll on him. He has been used very little on offense (maybe targeted only once or twice). I wonder if ST is taking up too much of his time and focus,

such that they aren’t going to use him on offense. 

[WideNine]

On 9/20/2021 at 1:19 PM, YoloinOhio said:

 

 

McD is funny.

 

I am sure that is also another way of saying all 5 offensive linemen had their negative moments... 

 

Film time must be brutal, but sounds like McD spends a set time on reviewing what needs fixing then on to the next opponent.

 

Healthier than an all-week beat down.

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[TheBeaneBandit]

38 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

While I have been thrilled and totally proven wrong about McKenzie as a returner, I am worried that it is taking its toll on him. He has been used very little on offense (maybe targeted only once or twice). I wonder if ST is taking up too much of his time and focus,

such that they aren’t going to use him on offense. 

Hopefully they are just pacing him. It's a long season.

[CommonCents]

34 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

He got zero snaps last week, I hope they let him touch the ball. 

[Beast]

I'm betting Allen lights it up this week. 

[billsbackto81]

1 hour ago, Bob in STL said:

I think the Bills have a much better team and will prevail but I expect the FT’s to play hard and challenge for awhile.  Rivera will have them ready.  
 

9.5 is a big spread but I see this one looking like: 

 

Bills - 31

WFT - 20 

 

 

With all their talent on the field Pitt only scored 16 offensive points but WFT is gonna score 20 with Heinke and one legitimate WR? They might score 14 if their lucky. This will most likely be Josh's breakout game.

[Bob in STL]

1 minute ago, billsbackto81 said:

With all their talent on the field Pitt only scored 16 offensive points but WFT is gonna score 20 with Heinke and one legitimate WR? They might score 14 if their lucky. This will most likely be Josh's breakout game.

Ok    I’ll take it.   

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

While I have been thrilled and totally proven wrong about McKenzie as a returner, I am worried that it is taking its toll on him. He has been used very little on offense (maybe targeted only once or twice). I wonder if ST is taking up too much of his time and focus,

such that they aren’t going to use him on offense. 

With Robert’s gone McKenzie is primarily the return guy.  That helps helps us more given we have Diggs, Sanders, Beasley and Davis.  They are having trouble getting Davis targets.  

[YoloinOhio]

 

8 minutes ago, Bob in STL said:

Ok    I’ll take it.   

With Robert’s gone McKenzie is primarily the return guy.  That helps helps us more given we have Diggs, Sanders, Beasley and Davis.  They are having trouble getting Davis targets.  

Davis targets went down week 2 because Knox’s snaps were really high, they didn’t do as much 4 and 5 wide. Assume his ankle probably played into it to. 

[RiotAct]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

it was @RiotActthat brought up the short field scenario.

 

I will admit I watched DVOA a bunch when it came out and I feel I'm fairly educated about it's calculations but I am not an expert at all.

I haven't looked at them since about the middle of last season and I would be interested in their latest update (I believe you said

tomorrow is an update).  I would like to see how the rankings compare to the "standard" NFL rankings.

 

If I got time tomorrow and don't paint my garage shop like I should I will throw out a thread comparing the two.

 

 

2 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

But the situation you cited - where a defense has to defend a short field - should be captured in their measurements.  I guess I’m not sure what you think their analytics doesn’t cover but should.

I’ve never really dug into the variables that make up DVOA, I guess - if they do account for stuff like that, all the better.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

On 9/20/2021 at 6:22 AM, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Maybe we’re seeing different things but I thought their front 7, especially the down 4 lineman are causing all sorts of problems. I don’t think they’re nearly as “splash” up front as PIT and no where near the caliber of MIA on the back end. 
 

That being said, that DL is made up of 4 first round picks, and after what we saw with the Steelers, I’m making sure my OL is ready to come to play. 

Dline maybe but theyre iffy at every linebacker position and average in the secondary which is very different than the PIT or MIA defensive situation.   Should be roastable over the middle....I hope? Lol