Interesting Josh Allen Stat

[The Frankish Reich]

3 hours ago, First Round Bust said:

yeah and Mahomes won his first his first game this past Sun when trailing by 10+ at the half

and

Browns have not won an opener since 2001.

and

9 upset wins this weekend won against the spread

its a new year....

All of this is not surprising if you study the win expectancy charts.

In general, not knowing anything else (quality of the teams, home vs. road, etc.), a team leading by 10 at halftime will win 85.3% of the time.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/win_prob.cgi?request=1&score_differential=10&quarter=2&field=team

 

Things to keep in mind:

- 10 point leads sometimes come from luck (a deflected pass Pick 6, etc.), but luck tends to even out between the favorite and the underdog. So most of the time the team leading by 10 or more is already objectively the better team.

- it varies, of course, by WHEN you accrue the 10 point lead. I chose halftime because it's relatively rare for a team to jump out to a 10 point lead in the 1st quarter.

- a really good team, of course, isn't behind by 10 or more that often. See the Chiefs in the Mahomes era. So there aren't all that many comeback opportunities, which is a good thing, not a bad thing.

 

Fans tend to overestimate the likelihood of comeback wins. Example: My team down by 9 (the classic "need two scores" when you know you still have time to get the ball back after the first score), 5:00 left, we have the ball on our own 25, 1st and 10. What's that, a 30% chance of coming back for the win (TD + extra point, defensive stop, kick FG, game over)? 

Nope. It's about 7 percent.

Of course it's better if you have a great QB, but it's still not that good.

Edited September 14, 2021 by The Frankish Reich

[TheFunPolice]

4 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

When McDermott loses, he often gets crushed. 

 

Often true, but they all count the same. 

 

We got crushed by the Titans and really the Chiefs as well, although the KC game looked better on the scoreboard but was totally 1 sided. 

 

Still won 13 games. Sometimes the plan just isn't going to work that week. 

[TampaBillsJunkie]

5 hours ago, jletha said:

Id prefer to not get behind by 10 points

Exactly. Don't let them block a damn punt for a touchdown and we don't see this stupid stat again.

[First Round Bust]

6 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

All of this is not surprising if you study the win expectancy charts.

In general, not knowing anything else (quality of the teams, home vs. road, etc.), a team leading by 10 at halftime will win 85.3% of the time.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/win_prob.cgi?request=1&score_differential=10&quarter=2&field=team

 

Things to keep in mind:

- 10 point leads sometimes come from luck (a deflected pass Pick 6, etc.), but luck tends to even out between the favorite and the underdog. So most of the time the team leading by 10 or more is already objectively the better team.

- it varies, of course, by WHEN you accrue the 10 point lead. I chose halftime because it's relatively rare for a team to jump out to a 10 point lead in the 1st quarter.

- a really good team, of course, isn't behind by 10 or more that often. See the Chiefs in the Mahomes era. So there aren't all that many comeback opportunities, which is a good thing, not a bad thing.

 

Fans tend to overestimate the likelihood of comeback wins. Example: My team down by 9 (the classic "need two scores" when you know you still have time to get the ball back after the first score), 5:00 left, we have the ball on our own 25, 1st and 10. What's that, a 30% chance of coming back for the win (TD + extra point, defensive stop, kick FG, game over)? 

Nope. It's about 7 percent.

Of course it's better if you have a great QB, but it's still not that good.

and Mahomes is undefeated in the month of Sept so far in his career, now splain that 

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I'm pretty sure a lot of teams have bad records when they get behind by 10+ points.

 

 

This.

 

Edited September 15, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Malazan]

12 hours ago, MJS said:

Most games are decided by one score, so you would expect a bad record when down by multiple scores.

 

But I do thing that is the next level of experience and progression that this team needs to obtain: how to overcome big deficits and come back. Mahomes and the Chiefs have that experience. Brady has that experience. It's a tough thing to do, but if Allen can figure it out he will be truly elite.

 

I'd be more concerned with losses when up by 10 or more.