Something to keep an eye on: Point differential?

[RoyBatty is alive]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

 

If you truly believe point differential is "meaningless," your opinion is "worthless."

If you think my opinion is worthless, why waste your time responding and even engage me in dialogue. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Just now, RoyBatty is alive said:

If you think my opinion is worthless, why waste your time responding and even engage me in dialogue. 

 

Maybe just have a soft spot for your username.

[Patrick Duffy]

2 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

September usually has the highest scoring games,

 

then the defenses catch up. 


Scoring 40s in December is awesome 

Sure a soft schedule / weaker opponent  helps

I feel like the Defense's may start out better than last year since off season was a little more normal. Looked like pretty much every teams D was slow the first few games. 

[TPS]

I recall looking at point differential a few different years to try to make some kind of generalization about playoff teams.  I think the number was +8 or greater for the majority of playoff teams (there is always at least one outlier).  If I ever decide to look at it again, my guess is defensive ppg rankings might be more important than offensive rankings.

[Mango]

1 minute ago, TPS said:

I recall looking at point differential a few different years to try to make some kind of generalization about playoff teams.  I think the number was +8 or greater for the majority of playoff teams (there is always at least one outlier).  If I ever decide to look at it again, my guess is defensive ppg rankings might be more important than offensive rankings.

 

I think it is sort of a pass/fail metric. If you want the odds of your season/post season success to increase you want to have a higher +/-. Don't be near the bottom or negative. I haven't taken enough time to dive into it, but I would imagine that rather than total +/-, differential from top of the pack, or other teams in the playoffs is a good indicator. You just want to be in good company. 

[TPS]

10 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I think it is sort of a pass/fail metric. If you want the odds of your season/post season success to increase you want to have a higher +/-. Don't be near the bottom or negative. I haven't taken enough time to dive into it, but I would imagine that rather than total +/-, differential from top of the pack, or other teams in the playoffs is a good indicator. You just want to be in good company. 

Yes, it's simply an indication of a good team over a 16-game season.  

[Mango]

49 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Did you read what I wrote. I explained it, do I have to do it again?

 

Sometimes he ran up the score, sometimes he didnt, hardly an indication if the Bills are any good if you want to predict Belcihek's whims.

 

Starting point of a conversation, sure, that is about it.

 

You're welcome to think +/- is garbage. It may or may not be.  You might like vanilla ice cream the best, another OK opinion to have.

 

But you can't use the BB history vs. Buffalo as an example. The fact that the Patriots beat us by 2+ possessions at a high rate is not really up for debate, or an opinion. In fact, they have a higher point differential against us over 20+ years than any team had over 16 weeks in 2020.  You can shout "OPINION" all you want, but you would be wrong about it. 

I will bow out while you keep yelling at clouds. 
 

[Mango]

22 minutes ago, TPS said:

Yes, it's simply an indication of a good team over a 16-game season.  

 

 

I am sure there is a relative line that people smarter than me could figure out. Negative is generally a really bad spot though. Ha!

NEWS FLASH: Good teams score a lot more points/hold their opponents to a lot less points!  Low margin victories are difficult to sustain over multiple games and/or seasons!

 

[The Frankish Reich]

5 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Look at the Blue Jay's and Mariners. Both are 12 games over 500 but Toronto has a +136 and Seattle has a -55. Go figure?

Excellent point. 
1. Run differential is more meaningful in baseball. 162 games, one run every time you cross the plate (not 6 every time you cross the plane), etc. 

2. But some things are true in both sports. The AL East is a killer division. That run differential won’t get it done. 
3. I’m too lazy to do the research myself, but I believe the rule in the NFL is that your record in close games (3 point margin or less) is more predictive than points differential. They’re similar measures, but record in close games comes closer to approximating luck, either good or bad, and hence (in the “good luck” case) predictive of likely regression. 

Edited September 7, 2021 by The Frankish Reich

[fergie's ire]

6 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Look at the Blue Jay's and Mariners. Both are 12 games over 500 but Toronto has a +136 and Seattle has a -55. Go figure?

Yeah, as I said it's USUALLY a good predictor in baseball...but not always.

[billybrew1]

The Bills, with an easier schedule this season and a better team will easily surpass the 100 point spread.

End of story.

Someone find something else footbally to talk about.....

 

You know what sucks?

Im all pumped-up for this season's Thursday's NFL's kickoff but it sucks that there is really no one to root for.....

I absolutely despise Tampa now, end of story, they are my second most hated team.

But who in their right mind could root for the cowboys?

Ever?

So.... it kind of sucks.....

You have to root for one team I think, to enjoy a game a lot, so if put to the brink, who would you root for?

i gotta say.... No, I can't do it? Imagine the press if the boys should win? It would go on for three weeks even if they lost the next two..... I couldn't stand that. But I'm not rooting for Tom baby either so.....???

What do I do?

i can't not watch, can I?

I dunno....

Why couldn't it be WTF vs. Tampa?

Now there's a team I could get behind. 

Or.....

Anyone from theNFC West.

IDK?

Just about anyone....aside from KC, Miami....who else?

My most hated teams this year: Pats, KC (though I really don't ate them like the pats) Tampa, Miami And Dallas.....

Thats the top five anyhow.....

I have no second team.....though LA is likable I think and I live here..... I kind of like the competition in the whole NFC West. That's what I like. I think AZ is underrated along with Tennessee though I don't like either team.

 I wish KC/ Cleveland was the Thursday night game. Cleveland doesn't really scare me but that defense is drawing my attention. A pretty balanced team. I'd definitely root for them vs. the chefs. Mainly because I think that's best for the Bills.

 

[Big Blitz]

After 9 games last year Tampa might have been less then plus 50.  

 

Not sure it means too much but it definitely is one of several stats to consider evaluating a team.

 

 

 

Fyi Tampa beat Detroit and Denver by 58 points total which was 1/3 of their 137 plus points.  

 

I don't know what that means.  

[NoSaint]

8 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Nobody talks about point differential if you win a championship.  The ring is all that matters.   Just win.

 

Last year the Bills played against some pretty garbage teams and did what they were supposed to do, beat the snot out of them.   They need to continue to do that, don’t play down, that’s how you lose.  This team needs to play like the Patriots did when they were dominating.  Go out, strike fear in the hearts of your opponents, bury them and don’t apologize, especially to divisional opponents.  Win as many as you can, stay hated/feared and try for that ring, that’s all that matters.  Having teams feel like they have to be perfect to beat you, puts pressure on them, they usually crack under that pressure.

clearly any given week a win is a win.

 

but if you are consistently playing in the margin of error where a single bad call or unpredictable bounce can lose a game or you are relying on those to win your games… it gets much harder to win week in and week out. You start growing out to a TD plus average and you can weather the dumb luck moments much better

[AuntieEm]

8 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

I agree that a win is a win.

 

I doubt I'm alone with this opinion:  I'd much prefer a comfortable win than to allow an opponent to stay in the game.

 

I'm sure we all remember the 3rd Quarter Anemia trend that existed into last season.  But it also began trending differently prior to mid-season and continued to completely buck the original trend.  

 

For last year's wins, the point differential was as follows (in date order):

 

10

3

3

7

8

3

10

10

10

11

29

29

30

 

 

I'm guessing that, as the Bills began playing 4 quarters of offense instead of 3, this helped with the differentials.

 

I'd like to see more of a "go for the jugular," attitude from McDermott.  I don't believe in running a score up.  Go out there and kick every team's ass, I say.

 

 

 

 

   Yea the "Hail Murray" changed the mindset of the team and seeing them still score td when they had 2 wiped out by penalty. It's not about style points but they just are becoming an efficient  team  that's hard to stop cause they don't generally hurt themselves. They basically keep bending the opposing defense until it breaks. I expect we will see some no huddle early and often this season. When everyone is on same page as it appears our offense is u can play fast.

[prissythecat]

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Difference between points scored and points allowed.

 

The Bills finished at +126, which is respectable at 7.9 ppg and higher than the Chiefs at 6.9 ppg

 

But that's largely driven by 3 games at the end of the season (Denver, NE, and Mia) where we kicked butt and took names.

In a lot of the early games, we barely squeaked by and of course, we got embarrassed in Tenn and by KC.

 

I seem to recall a bunch of regulars here sounding a warning note early in the season because our point differential was so slender, hovering close to 0 for 4 weeks before the bye.

 

Jim Kubiak has an article up on TBN about it (I value his QB analysis every week, if you're unfamliar, and they have a Deal)

 

On the one hand, I see the point (haha): differential is a straightforward metric that asks if both offense and defense are Doing Their Job.  And it would be less nail-biting to see it be more consistent

 

On the other hand, I fall into the category that "a win is a win", no style points.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

9 hours ago, Mango said:

I believe I was one of those posters who had some concern about point differential. I think it could still be a concern. We need better production from the defense on a consistent basis. I think the DL will be somewhat improved. Unsure if they will take the leap we hope. I think the back 7 need to do a better job at holding their own. Specifically CB depth and LB's. 

Winning a lot of games with a poor differential is tough, especially over multiple seasons. 

EDIT: Mid October last year I had a post on it. Not often do teams make the playoffs with a negative point differential. More often than not, they lose early and lose big in the playoffs. Something to keep an eye on. 
 

 

 

 

 

We also have this epic thread from our resident football high IQ guru

 

 

[DCofNC]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

clearly any given week a win is a win.

 

but if you are consistently playing in the margin of error where a single bad call or unpredictable bounce can lose a game or you are relying on those to win your games… it gets much harder to win week in and week out. You start growing out to a TD plus average and you can weather the dumb luck moments much better

You have a valid point there.  This is exactly why I want to see them go out and step on teams, don’t leave the window open.

[HardyBoy]

14 hours ago, Mango said:

 

There can be a whole lot of why, but I think ultimately it is a concern. Teams with low or negative point differentials rarely have good runs in the playoffs. One thing to note is, outside of the final 3 games of the season, the Bills point differential was +2.9 points per game/+38 on the season. The schedule was harder for sure. But the Bills also had some struggles on defense that they didn't have in 2019 where our differential was higher. Buffalo had a negative differential in 17 and 18. 

Bills defense also seemed to figure it out at the end of the season and in the playoffs. 
 

I think the lack of a running game to ice multiple possession leads, allowing the other team to get the ball back to score meaningless points when you’re in a prevent defense doesn’t help. Also, bills d had trouble getting off the field because they had trouble getting teams behind the chains early in the game. Allowed teams to stay balanced longer, shortening the game and keeping the ball out of JAs hands. Most teams just couldn’t take score enough other than the chiefs and titans. 
 

I’m not sure if I’m agreeing or disagreeing with you! honestly though I’m not sure there is a right answer here, a lot of variables. At the same time, calling the Tenn game a blowout isn’t exactly fair for pt diff purposes. I know the score is the score, but iirc wasn’t that game close in the fourth quarter?

[Thurman#1]

16 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

To be clear: the “context” here is the defense - the offense did its job every week except against KC, basically.  So the issue was the defense letting the other team keep the game close.  It’s not like the offense was laying goose eggs some weeks.  Point differential can mean different things to different teams but in the Bills’ case, the defense needs to improve this year and not let teams hang around.

 

 

I don't agree at all.

 

"The offense did it's job every week except against KC, basically," you say?

 

Did they do their job when they scored 16 against the Titans? 18 against the Jets in Week7? 24 against the Pats? 19 against the Steelers (the other seven points came on Taron Johnson's pick-six)? 10 against the Ravens in the playoffs (the other seven points came on Taron Johnson's other pick-six)?

 

Certainly the offense was better than the defense last year, but that's far from saying the O were good every game.

 

 

As for how important point difference is ... it's important sometimes.

 

The 2015 SB Champion Broncos had a point differential below 4. So did the 2012 Super Bowl Champion Ravens. The 2011 Super Bowl Champion Giants actually had a negative point differential. The 2007 Super Bowl Champion Giants had a point differential below three points. The 2006 Super Bowl Champion Mannings, um, I mean the Colts had one of 4.2 points.

 

So that's far from a majority, but most stats that measure both offense and defense are going to look good for nearly all Lombardi winners.

 

Edited September 8, 2021 by Thurman#1

[billsfan89]

The panic over point differential early last season was completely over blown. The Bills point difference was deflated in some games by late scores when the Bills were up by two scores. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

I don't agree at all.

 

"The offense did it's job every week except against KC, basically," you say?

 

Did they do their job when they scored 16 against the Titans? 18 against the Jets in Week7? 24 against the Pats? 19 against the Steelers (the other seven points came on Taron Johnson's pick-six)? 10 against the Ravens in the playoffs (the other seven points came on Taron Johnson's other pick-six)?

 

 

I think I'd let them off the Ravens game... that was as much about weather conditions as anything, but I agree there were games where the O had some struggles.