Article: Will Josh Allen regress in 2021?

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

If he learns to use the checkdown he will shatter single season records.

 

[Rico]

I doubt anyone is going to be talking about any regression after 4 PM this Sunday.

[billsfan1959]

4 hours ago, Bangarang said:

The article wasn’t doubting Allen. 

 

Conclusion from the article: 

 

Quote

Statistically, this all suggests that Allen is due for some regression but not likely to fall back into his 2019 performance level.

 

I read the article. Like I said, I have no idea why this is even a topic.

[The Dean]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think Fairburn is conflating, or at least failing to clearly distinguish between two different usages of the term "regression"

 

There's "regression" in the statistical sense, "regression to the mean", where a player's outlier statistical performance (say, Barry Bonds hitting 73 HR in 2001) is followed by a return to something closer to more typical numbers of his career (45-46 HR) - which while still good, are not jaw-dropping.

 

Then there's a very common usage meaning something like “returning to a former less developed state.” ....... if a good player gets worse, they can be said to have regressed. That is, their talent has declined."

 

To the former, in Football, there are all kinds of reasons for this type of regression having little to do with the player himself: change of scheme to something less conducive to high numbers; loss of supporting cast that enabled the great results; change in the way other teams defend him, requiring a change in offensive approach; change in other aspects of our team which enable a change in strategy.

 

We know that the first two aren't in play for Josh barring injury. 

 

 

 

I think the only way Josh "regresses" is if he (or significant members of the offense) get injured. 

 

5 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

Define Regression 

 

 

Less Fewer passing yds does not = regression 

 

Only if you care about Fantasy Football stats. HE won't regress, but his numbers might. As long as they are winning, I don't care at all. 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Conclusion from the article: 

 

 

I read the article. Like I said, I have no idea why this is even a topic.

 

Writers need clicks.  Josh is a glitch in the Matrix.  He generates clicks.

[Ralonzo]

10 hours ago, JohnNord said:

This seems to make sense but what makes it hard to evaluate Josh is that he’s unlike any other QB prospect over the past 2 decades or so.  There really aren’t any comps for Allen - at least in his first 3 seasons.  Last year the talk was about how few QB’s improved in their 3rd season, and why most plateau in their 2nd year.  

 

In terms of actual game reps vs high level competition Allen is probably the equivalent of a power-5 guy having just finished his first full NFL season. There had been a fairly linear ascent so far and no inflection points. There's been increasing wow each year, but still a lot of upside owing to unprecedented traits. I'm expecting 2021 > 2020 for those reasons.

[Apocalypse Nuts]

I am starting to get the sense that McDermott is going to put the pedal down every time unless playing a particular opponent requires differently for some reason.  I don’t know why, I am just getting that feeling when I hear him talk about not being your typical HC from the defensive coordinator background.  
 

There was one game last year they came out and threw like 25 passes and 1 run starting off.  That’s some serious trust in your QB.  McD knows what they have and he ain’t shy about using it.

[NewEra]

34-27 Bills

[LeGOATski]

Don't be surprised if a couple Allen turnovers keep the Steelers in the game. It's just who he is right now. I don't think he's totally cleaned that up.

 

Then all the talking heads will regurgitate this "regression" talk. But it's simply Josh being who he's always been. 

[The Wiz]

If you have a season like he did it's almost impossible not to regress.

 

As long as the stuff that matters stays the same. 

 

Is he doesn't regress, you're looking at the mvp.

[GoBills808]

He’s going to be better

[JujuFish]

8 hours ago, SirAndrew said:

I’m actually surprised by the number of people who think Allen will regress statistically. He put up huge numbers last year, so it’s very possible he might “regress”, but not a given. Josh was asked carry to the team, but that’s going to be his role. I don’t understand the idea that he won’t need to carry the team as much. 

I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress.  That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.

[SirAndrew]

6 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress.  That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.

I agree, I definitely didn’t say it’s impossible to see a stat decline. I guess I’m more surprised that people think he’ll carry less of the load. We have an elite QB, elite QB’s are asked to carry the team in the modern NFL. He might regress statistically, but I think he’ll get every opportunity to sling the ball around again this season. 

[SirAndrew]

58 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Don't be surprised if a couple Allen turnovers keep the Steelers in the game. It's just who he is right now. I don't think he's totally cleaned that up.

 

Then all the talking heads will regurgitate this "regression" talk. But it's simply Josh being who he's always been. 

I was harsh on his recklessness after the Houston playoff loss. I wasn’t convinced he’d ever be able to overcome the destructive plays. I thought I saw a different player last season. He made mistakes, but no more than any other elite QB. Allen threw ten picks last season, while the Super Bowl champ Brady threw twelve. There’s always the possibility that his gambler mentality will get him in trouble, but the numbers aren’t indicative of a QB who makes excess mistakes. I really don’t expect a turnover extravaganza opening day. 

Edited September 7, 2021 by SirAndrew

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress.  That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.

Other than, you know, the very logical and very reasonable measures that show he’s improved every year like clockwork.

[RiotAct]

it’s very possible.  As long as our defense progresses, however, we’re still a 12-14 win team.

[mannc]

2 hours ago, JujuFish said:

I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress.  That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.

No one said it’s impossible; but there is certainly no reason to think it’s likely.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, JujuFish said:

I'm surprised by the number of people who think it's an impossibility that Allen could regress.  That's just absurdly blind faith and not couched in any sort of logic or reason.

 

It has to do (IMO) with people using two different definitions of "regression" as I outlined above.

 

People don't believe he will regress in the "returning to a former less developed state...talent has declined" sense.  I think most people understand he could decline in the statistical "regression to the mean" sense, especially if we have a better run game and run more, or if defenses play us in a way that forces him to dink and dunk more.

[machine gun kelly]

Statistically maybe as we use the running game slightly more, or the defense plays back to 18-19 standards, but his play will do nothing but improve.  I really don’t care what his next gen stats predicts.  Allen has been beating this crap for his career.

[Apocalypse Nuts]

"Regression" definition is so subjective and some idiot sports "reporter" will find a way to make that case no matter what just to get clicks in the off-season.  We all know someone will.  Personally I think he'll be even more accurate and throw for more total yards than last year, which is a lofty proposition.  Having Sanders over John Brown will help tremendously.  

 

And like many others have stated before me here, JA is not like any other QB out there now, nor ever before really.  He's already shown clearly that the usual blanket assumptions about other QB's (like you are either accurate or you're not - looking at you Troy Aikman) simply will not apply to him.  The trajectory arrow still points up.  He had a great year, but look at what Mahomes did the MVP season.  No reason at all JA17 can't get at least close to that himself.  He showed some just ridiculously amazing ability last year so many times.  We'll see even more of that this year.