Article: Will Josh Allen regress in 2021?

[JohnNord]

Matthew Fairburn recently wrote an article exploring whether Josh Allen would regress next year.  
 

He tried to explore a number of different statistics and Next-Gen stars to contemplate whether Allen is poised to regress next year.

 

His takeaway was that he expects to see a small regression, as it might be hard for Allen to duplicate the numbers from his monster 2020 season, but that it’s unlikely he returns to his 2019 form.  According to him, Josh is likely to fall between his performance in 2019 and 2020.   The article isn’t necessarily negative, but it questions whether we should expect the improvement we’ve seen the past two year.
 

This seems to make sense but what makes it hard to evaluate Josh is that he’s unlike any other QB prospect over the past 2 decades or so.  There really aren’t any comps for Allen - at least in his first 3 seasons.  Last year the talk was about how few QB’s improved in their 3rd season, and why most plateau in their 2nd year.  
 

To add to the complexity, it’s rare to find a situation where a QB (especially in the first 3 seasons) to retain nearly all of his coaching staff and offensive personnel.  
 

While the outlook is sensible, Allen has always found a way of falling outside the data-driven projections from analysts.  Let’s hope it happens again in 2021!  
 

https://theathletic.com/2798162/2021/09/06/will-buffalo-bills-quarterback-josh-allen-regress-in-2021/?source=user_shared_article

[Wizard]

I think many people, including me, can get caught up in the word, "regression" because of the excitement of putting up "fantasy numbers."

 

I don't see any actual regression in Josh's game. I think the team will run a little more for balance. I think the defense may improve and provide shorter fields for the offense to work with.

 

He is going to be a perennial pro bowl/all pro candidate. And, as long as the roster builds depth and mainstays remain on team over time, Bills will be a top 2-top 8 team yearly over the next decade.

 

 

[Scott7975]

I don't think he is going to regress in his play.  If anything I expect him to get better in decisions.  Nothing like the jump from last year, but I think the kid mentally has it as well and will only get better in that sense.  

 

It's not like he did anything flukey or got lucky.  He wasn't really up and down over the season.  Just better and better.  I don't really believe players like that regress to some mean unless they just get lazy.  We all know Josh isn't lazy.

[billsfan1959]

Honestly, I don't understand why this is a thing. 

 

People apparently just love to doubt this kid...

[Maynard]

1 minute ago, billsfan1959 said:

Honestly, I don't understand why this is a thing. 

 

People apparently just love to doubt this kid...

I believe Josh loves the doubters. 

[mannc]

Why would he get anything but better, just as he has each year? Why assume that a 24-year old QB in his third professional season has peaked?  Why are people always overthinking this stuff?

[Green Lightning]

Big concern. For example Mahomes, hasn't won the MVP in 2 years and didn't win SB last year -- an obvious regression. With fans back in the stands making noise, Josh won't be able to function, I read it on the Internet. Suddenly, the Bills' future looks bleak. 

[LeGOATski]

The most concerning question still looming: is Josh gonna pull a Carson Wentz?

 

I'm sure Eagles fans talked about Wentz the same way we're talking about Allen. 

 

I tend to believe Josh will be one of the GOATs, but time will tell.

[Bangarang]

24 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

Honestly, I don't understand why this is a thing. 

 

People apparently just love to doubt this kid...

The article wasn’t doubting Allen. 

[K-9]

As if less statistical success automatically equals a regression. Just a ridiculously shallow take. Josh Allen could put up less numbers and STILL improve as a QB over last season. 

[H2o]

The answer is no. 

[Doc]

Mahomes "regressed" after his 2nd (1st starting) season.  When you have an amazing season, it's hard to surpass it.

[Success]

I'm actually more excited about seeing where & how he improves. 

 

The trajectory is clear. I think he's only going to get better.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Matthew Fairburn recently wrote an article exploring whether Josh Allen would regress next year.  
 

He tried to explore a number of different statistics and Next-Gen stars to contemplate whether Allen is poised to regress next year.

 

His takeaway was that he expects to see a small regression, as it might be hard for Allen to duplicate the numbers from his monster 2020 season, but that it’s unlikely he returns to his 2019 form.  According to him, Josh is likely to fall between his performance in 2019 and 2020.   The article isn’t necessarily negative, but it questions whether we should expect the improvement we’ve seen the past two year.
 

This seems to make sense but what makes it hard to evaluate Josh is that he’s unlike any other QB prospect over the past 2 decades or so.  There really aren’t any comps for Allen - at least in his first 3 seasons.  Last year the talk was about how few QB’s improved in their 3rd season, and why most plateau in their 2nd year.  
 

To add to the complexity, it’s rare to find a situation where a QB (especially in the first 3 seasons) to retain nearly all of his coaching staff and offensive personnel.  
 

While the outlook is sensible, Allen has always found a way of falling outside the data-driven projections from analysts.  Let’s hope it happens again in 2021!  
 

https://theathletic.com/2798162/2021/09/06/will-buffalo-bills-quarterback-josh-allen-regress-in-2021/?source=user_shared_article

 

I think Fairburn is conflating, or at least failing to clearly distinguish between two different usages of the term "regression"

 

There's "regression" in the statistical sense, "regression to the mean", where a player's outlier statistical performance (say, Barry Bonds hitting 73 HR in 2001) is followed by a return to something closer to more typical numbers of his career (45-46 HR) - which while still good, are not jaw-dropping.

 

Then there's a very common usage meaning something like “returning to a former less developed state.” ....... if a good player gets worse, they can be said to have regressed. That is, their talent has declined."

 

To the former, in Football, there are all kinds of reasons for this type of regression having little to do with the player himself: change of scheme to something less conducive to high numbers; loss of supporting cast that enabled the great results; change in the way other teams defend him, requiring a change in offensive approach; change in other aspects of our team which enable a change in strategy.

 

We know that the first two aren't in play for Josh barring injury. 

 

Other teams are absolutely going to change how they defend us, and then the question is "will it help them, or will we succeed anyway?"  Then, last year our D early on showed it could squander a 25 point lead, so the O had better keep the pedal to the metal and go balls-out.  If our D is more effective at shutting other teams down and we're more effective at running the ball, playing "possession football" be an effective game-closing strategy for us and would cut down passing numbers.

 

To the latter, it's happened before that a player has a "Wonderboy" season that constitutes an anomaly in his career.  I think there's nothing anomalous about last year's season for Josh, I think it was progress driven by fiendishly hard work, and represents "getting a lot better at football" that is unlikely to regress.  Time Will Tell.

 

We as fans get annoyed by people who use the statistical definition because we feel they're using the talent-decline definition

[PromoTheRobot]

There's regressing, then there's not having to do it all yourself. If the defense and running game step up, Josh won't have to sling the ball as much. Relax.

[MJS]

No, I expect Josh to have a better season in terms of yards and TD's, but I expect his completion percentage and other efficiency metrics to remain about the same or only slightly improve.

 

Allen is still a QB on the rise. The Bills have a much easier schedule this year and face easier QB's. I expect Allen to tear it up this year.

 

It's not like Allen threw for 5,000 yards and 50 TD's last year. If he had, I'd say we would likely see a regression, but he could beat his numbers from last year, especially with the extra game. He could also fumble it less and throw a couple fewer INT's.

[Solomon Grundy]

The Bills upgraded his receiving corp. Motor upgraded to synthetic from conventional oil. Josh spent the off season working on his perceived weaknesses. How can he regress?? 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

I think he may regress statistically a little bit (not in total given the added game, but on the average) just because last year was so good, but that does not mean the Bills will do worse.

[HappyDays]

I read the article this morning and found it weird that they didn't even once mention how his supporting cast got better year over year. You'd think for an article focusing on context driven performance they would have brought that up. Allen went from having a historically bad supporting cast to a middling supporting cast to a really good supporting cast. He of course improved on his own too, but adding a true #1 WR to the offense last year combined with his personal progression led to the historical leap in production. If you put Mahomes in the 2018 Bills offense of course he would appear to regress. The Bills if anything improved the supporting cast again this year, and Allen didn't make a living on fluke plays last year, so I don't see a path to regression that doesn't involve injury.

[Mat68]

Regression?  So Allen will play worst than last year?  Better weapons this year.  No confusion in what the team wants to do.  Buffalo will pass more on first down and second down than any team in the league.  That is the best time to pass.  Its the more effective way to play.  The oline plays better with a healthy Felicano and Ford and that will help the running game.  I dont expect Allen to play much better, but his numbers will be about the same or more.