Week 1: Steelers at Bills

[gordong]

So did watt practice with the steelers today? 

[eball]

34 minutes ago, wjag said:

 

Upthread you should have seen the Canadians can't cross the border and sold their tickets.  The place will be overrun with bumble bees.

 

Well that sucks.

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Neither is play action - his completion%, ypa, and passer rating all considerably worse when they ran it last year (it’s usually the opposite)

 

 

Yeah, I'm listening to Locked On Bills now 😄 That was a really intriguing stat line.

[YoloinOhio]

This will be true on Sunday. Ben gets the ball out in 2.1 sec. Need to pressure him into bad throws and get hands up 

 

Edited September 8, 2021 by YoloinOhio

[BringBackFlutie]

On 9/6/2021 at 8:45 AM, Stank_Nasty said:

Good discussion this morning from the GMFB crew. Michael Robinson was on so you know dang well he was gonna pound the table for his boy Allen! 

A lot of people saying things like this lately.

 

It seemed like all through the offseason, Allen had wedged himself into the conversation for one of the better QBs in the league, maybe even first or second tier.  There were still so.many reservations, and the usual suspects kind of backhand complimenting him.

 

...now, suddenly, in the last week(?) he is an MVP candidate, or in the lead for MVP, or flat out WILL BE MVP, or the best quarterback in football; and the Bills are no longer candidates to get to the Super Bowl, but never mentioned as less than Super Bowl contenders.

 

What was it?  Was it the 20/26 194 yds 2 TDs using a precision dink and dunk offense coupled with a 40 yd rope at a velocity that the biggest arms in history would struggle to match, all in one half of preseason play? 😅

Edited September 8, 2021 by BringBackFlutie
Redundancy

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

Yeah, I'm listening to Locked On Bills now 😄 That was a really intriguing stat line.

How about the deep throw stat? Crazy

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

On 9/7/2021 at 3:39 PM, RiotAct said:

the Washington Nationals shortstop is playing Offensive Line for the Steelers?!?

He's the LA Dodgers shortstop now! Oh no the dreaded West Coast to East Coast early game disaster!

[Scott7975]

21 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I had PTSD watching the Notre Dame Tight End against FSU.  Dude makes big time plays and then just drops easy catches.  

 

Tight Ends typically take time, and I have a feeling Knox makes the jump this year.    

 

I really hope so.  I like Knox a lot but we can't have those drops.  I expect that anyone can have drops but man he drops the stupid stuff too often.

[K-9]

16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

This will be true on Sunday. Ben gets the ball out in 2.1 sec. Need to pressure him into bad throws and get hands up 

 

Agree entirely with Frazier. Hurries also tend to result in more turnovers than sacks as well. That said, I suspect it won’t matter much vs. Big Ben as he gets rid of the ball faster than any QB in the league. It’s hard to hurry a QB in the less than 2.5 seconds he takes to get rid of the ball. 

[GoBills808]

29 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Neither is play action - his completion%, ypa, and passer rating all considerably worse when they ran it last year (it’s usually the opposite)

 

 

Roethlisberger is on record saying he doesn’t like play action, doesn’t like turning his back to the defense.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

10 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Agree entirely with Frazier. Hurries also tend to result in more turnovers than sacks as well. That said, I suspect it won’t matter much vs. Big Ben as he gets rid of the ball faster than any QB in the league. It’s hard to hurry a QB in the less than 2.5 seconds he takes to get rid of the ball. 

That's an average time to throw the ball.  What matters is getting pressure when the down and distance is in favor of the defense.  Hurries matter but Frazier is wrong.  Sacks do matter and he would take a sack over a hurry almost every time. Sacks lead to QB fumbles and loss of yards.  An incomplete pass is good but a tackle for loss is better.  

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

That's an average time to throw the ball.  What matters is getting pressure when the down and distance is in favor of the defense.  Hurries matter but Frazier is wrong.  Sacks do matter and he would take a sack over a hurry almost every time. Sacks lead to QB fumbles and loss of yards.  An incomplete pass is good but a tackle for loss is better.  

 

Hurries can also lead to interceptions, incompletions, throwing short of the sticks on 3rd down. In the case of QBs like Darnold they can also lead to seeing ghosts. They both have benefits.

Edited September 8, 2021 by Scott7975

[LeGOATski]

15 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Agree entirely with Frazier. Hurries also tend to result in more turnovers than sacks as well. That said, I suspect it won’t matter much vs. Big Ben as he gets rid of the ball faster than any QB in the league. It’s hard to hurry a QB in the less than 2.5 seconds he takes to get rid of the ball. 

It still matters. The strategy is to get pressure with 5 or 6, even if Ben beats it with a quick throw. Then fake pressure and double up his short routes as you bait him into a quick throw. That's what led to the Taron pick 6 last season. "The vaunted double A gap" (in reference to that other thread from last week). 

 

If they get even more pressure from just the front 4, which we assume they will, the strategy works increasingly better. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Hurries can also lead to interceptions, incompletions, throwing short of the sticks on 3rd down. In the case of QBs like Darnold they can also lead to seeing ghosts. They both have benefits.

Agreed.  Go watch the Bruce Smith sack highlights and count how many of those sacks led to turnovers.  Many of them did.  Hell there were probably 5 or 6 in one season where he never even touched more then the QB's arm/hand and caused a fumble.  

Pressure the QB in any way possible.  I've been posting that for years.  They have better pass rushers than at any time since Mario Williams was here.  They should be able to get consistent pressure with the front four letting them drop more into coverage.  Dropping more into coverage means it will take longer for a guy to get open.  Frazier blitzed more last year than he has ever done.  If the young guys pan out he won't need to nearly as much and that is a good thing. 

[JGMcD2]

14 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

That's an average time to throw the ball.  What matters is getting pressure when the down and distance is in favor of the defense.  Hurries matter but Frazier is wrong.  Sacks do matter and he would take a sack over a hurry almost every time. Sacks lead to QB fumbles and loss of yards.  An incomplete pass is good but a tackle for loss is better.  

That's not what Frazier said?

[Blainorama5]

47 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said:

What was it?  Was it the 20/26 194 yds 2 TDs using a precision dink and dunk offense coupled with a 40 yd rope at a velocity that the biggest arms in history would struggle to match, all in one half of preseason play?

Probably.  It was a VERY impressive drive, especially considering it was his first "live" action and he looked like he was in mid-season form.  Obviously it was against backups, so the "experts" probably should take what they saw with a little more salt than many of them did, but hey - he did look good!

[CNY315]

 

[K-9]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

That's an average time to throw the ball.  What matters is getting pressure when the down and distance is in favor of the defense.  Hurries matter but Frazier is wrong.  Sacks do matter and he would take a sack over a hurry almost every time. Sacks lead to QB fumbles and loss of yards.  An incomplete pass is good but a tackle for loss is better.  

I don’t believe either Frazier or I said that sacks don’t matter; not even close. The point he is making and which I agree with is that sacks aren’t the ONLY indicator of an effective pass rush. And hurries DO tend to result in more turnovers. 
 

Regarding that “average” time to throw the ball, cue up some Steeler games and determine the median time to throw from last season. That Steeler offense was specifically designed to mitigate BR’s worsening ability to avoid pressure and protect him, so it was a steady diet of two and three step drops out of the shotgun and throw the ball. The longer developing deep shots were fewer and farther between than the quick hits, which is why the average time to throw was just above two seconds. 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, CNY315 said:

 

 

Not sure what to think of Pittsburgh's run game.  They were terrible last year.  They drafted Harris but also have 5 new offensive lineman....

[K-9]

13 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

It still matters. The strategy is to get pressure with 5 or 6, even if Ben beats it with a quick throw. Then fake pressure and double up his short routes as you bait him into a quick throw. That's what led to the Taron pick 6 last season. "The vaunted double A gap" (in reference to that other thread from last week). 

 

If they get even more pressure from just the front 4, which we assume they will, the strategy works increasingly better. 

I don’t disagree, I’m just indicating that hurries and pressure of any kind is difficult to generate in less than 2.5 seconds. And as you indicate, pressure up the middle, the shortest distance, is key.