Alphas Roster Stab 3.0 (after PS game 2)

[Alphadawg7]

First, what a game!  Amazing to see the vast majority of our starters on offense sit and still have their way with mostly the starting unit of an NFL defense!  Not to mention the greatly encouraging showings of our young DL as well, as they have all through camp and the first preseason game.  

 

Lets just jump into it...obviously there are not going to be significant changes with each one of these are there are not a lot of roster spots really up for grabs.  But this is also about predicting the starters and depth chart too.  

 

Offense:  Total 25

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox, Sweeney

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 25

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star - Butler (Phillips will INITIALLY make the final 53, but solely to be put on IR so he can return, but Butler will be here at least to start the season with the injury to Phillips)

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - ADDITIONS 

WR/KR Stevenson - Admittedly, I am still quite skeptical we keep 7 players at WR, but they drafted Stevenson to return kicks, and he did just that and made a nice offensive play too in the first preseason game.  But I am wondering if they could successfully stash him on the PS at this point, and for that reason may tempt them to keep 7, especially given McKenzie muffed a punt in the same game.  They could cut Kumerow too, something I felt likely wouldn't happen, but dropping 2 passes this week didn't help his case.

 

DT Butler - The injury to Phillips now I think makes Butler safe.  Harrison will initially be kept so he can be put on IR with the ability to come back in season, but come week 1, Butler will be the backup to Star in the meantime.

 

CHANGES from 2.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

OT Hart - I briefly added him to the roster just skeptical we would run with our 2 backup rookie tackles, but at this point its really hard to say what will happen at OL with the injuries.  But Hart I just think isnt worth keeping and think we will add someone available before we keep Hart.  If the injuries are no significant, I think we just roll at this point with our 2 rookies. 

 

DT Phillips - He will make the initial 53 before being moved to IR.  This thread is a roster prediction for week 1, so I left him off it as Butler will fill that reserve role behind Star come week 1 now that Phillips has another knee injury.

 

NEW TE STARTER - Hollister:  In version 1.0 I listed Hollister as the starter before quickly making an update mid week when McD gave pretty strong praise to Knox overall camp.  In 2.0, stuck with Knox.  But after watching Knox again drop a pass he easily should have caught and watching Hollister play so many snaps and make a lot of plays, I am now reverting back to that I think Hollister might surprise and start at TE.  I am in no way saying its a lock, but I have to believe the staff is frustrated to see the ball again hit the ground, and Hollister has impressed IMO since returning to the field.  

 

NOTES:

AJE:  I had him as the starter out the gate, and I feel like all he has done is validate that prediction thus far and is a near lock to start opposite Hughes week one.  That is not even a knock on Addison, its just how good AJE has looked thus far.  Addison I still expect to remain on the team and play a good amount of snaps in a rotation to keep our guys fresh and constantly bring pressure, but I am growing more and more confident by the day that AJE will be the week 1 starter.  

 

6 Linebackers:  I had us keeping 6 all the way, and now I think we are nearing a lock for 6.  Smith and Matakevich have I think sealed their spots here and both are also very good on special teams.  

 

Taiwan Jones and Daryl Johnson:  I am still struggling to get them on the final 53 without injuries coming into play.  Not sure who gets cut to make room for one of them, and currently I still have neither making the team.  And barring more injuries, I can't see a path where we keep both.  

• I still think it seems to be a stretch we keep 7 WR's, so that would open a spot up if we keep 6 only...but then who is the odd man out, Kumerow or Stevenson?  Both have a made a strong case to make the roster.  I think Stevenson is trending up hard, and Kumerow stock might be a little down after dropping a couple passes this week.  He did make up for it with some nice plays too, but the margin of error to make this final roster is razor thin.  McKenzie muffing that punt actually hurt Kumerow more than it did McKenzie as his role on the offense is secure, but it opened up the chance for Stevenson to challenge again for KR/PR duties and a roster spot.  
• A trade of Addison would open a spot, but I still dont think they intend on doing that.  He is worth more to our SB run than we will get back in a trade at this point.  He likely backs up AJE but will see plenty of reps in rotation still.  And there just isnt any financial incentive either, so I think given we need to throw all we can at Mahomes, Addison will be here this season.

Edited August 22, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[LabattBlue]

I’d be shocked if they rolled with two rookie middle round draft picks as backup OT’s on a team that has championship aspirations.  I know you can’t have great depth at every position, but I think they would be playing with fire with Doyle and Brown being one injury away from going in. 

Edited August 22, 2021 by BTB

[jkeerie]

2 minutes ago, BTB said:

I’d be shocked if they rolled with two rookie middle round draft picks as backup OT’s on a team that has championship aspirations.  I know you can’t have great depth at every position, but I think they would be playing with fire with Doyle and Brown being one injury away from going in. 

If they're playing better than the vets as backups you keep them and cut the vets.

[gonzo1105]

Yea I mean I don’t disagree with most of this. I could honestly see 2 TEs making it in Knox and Hollister and letting Sweeney go to keep Johnson as another DE or to keep Stevenson as a 7th WR or maybe to keep an extra DB like Lewis or Wildgoose

Edited August 22, 2021 by gonzo1105

[LabattBlue]

1 minute ago, jkeerie said:

If they're playing better than the vets as backups you keep them and cut the vets.

Doesn’t mean they should be key backups on the team, it just means the OT vets that were signed...suck.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:

Yea I mean I don’t disagree with most of this. I could honestly see 2 TEs making it in Knox and Hollister and letting Sweeney go to keep Johnson as another DE or to keep Stevenson as a 7th WR. 

 

Yeah, Sweeney isnt locked in by any means, but the staff and team really seem to just love this guy and hes done well when on the field.  But the one thing working against him is that Gilliam is versatile enough to where he could be an emergency TE 3.  In the past we have kept 3 TE's and a FB though.  

[jkeerie]

1 minute ago, BTB said:

Doesn’t mean they should be key backups on the team, it just means the OT vets that were signed...suck.  

Then what Vets would you bring in that are available?  With the dearth of talented olinemen in the NFL, there isn't exactly a plethora of potential starters out there.   The rooks will be fine.  They've looked well in preseason.  There's a reason why they were drafted.  You develop young players to be the future starters on your team.

 

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, BTB said:

I’d be shocked if they rolled with two rookie middle round draft picks as backup OT’s on a team that has championship aspirations.  I know you can’t have great depth at every position, but I think they would be playing with fire with Doyle and Brown being one injury away from going in. 

 

This is how I felt too in version 2.0, but Hart had another poor showing again I felt in game 2 and nearly gave up a safety when he gave up a sack near the goal line.  I thought he needed to at least have a solid performance to have a chance to be a back up tackle here.

 

With the report that Brown and Doyle injuries dont seem serious, I just think Harts chances have run out.  However, that doesn't mean we wont add one once cuts start happening though, which is obviously also still a possibility

[GunnerBill]

Knox is the starter. I am not sure he should be but I don't even think it is a competition in their eyes. Both will get enough action but the regime is all in on Dawson. 

[gonzo1105]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, Sweeney isnt locked in by any means, but the staff and team really seem to just love this guy and hes done well when on the field.  But the one thing working against him is that Gilliam is versatile enough to where he could be an emergency TE 3.  In the past we have kept 3 TE's and a FB though.  

I get that and my thought process is a lot like yours. Sweeney can’t stay healthy(heart issue, now this years injury). Gilliam can play 3rd TE like he did last year, and he doesn’t provide STs value like Johnson, Stevenson, or one of the DBs.

 

In addition the Bills go a lot of 10 and 11 personnel and I don’t expect that to change a lot this year making a 3rd TE with injury history and no STs value very vulnerable. Spencer Brown can come in on short yardage 3rd TE situation with Gilliam at FB. People must remember Brown is a converted former TE as well so he could catch in goal line situations. Just food for thought

[LabattBlue]

6 minutes ago, jkeerie said:

Then what Vets would you bring in that are available?  With the dearth of talented olinemen in the NFL, there isn't exactly a plethora of potential starters out there.   The rooks will be fine.  They've looked well in preseason.  There's a reason why they were drafted.  You develop young players to be the future starters on your team.

 

All depends on how final cuts go.  Up to Beane and his staff to see if there is someone cut or who could be traded for that would be an upgrade over Hart, Brown and Doyle.  

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, BTB said:

I’d be shocked if they rolled with two rookie middle round draft picks as backup OT’s on a team that has championship aspirations.  I know you can’t have great depth at every position, but I think they would be playing with fire with Doyle and Brown being one injury away from going in. 

 

Yea I agree. Still think they will be in the market for a vet OT at cutdowns but it depends what Alpha is predicting. I take it as the 53 when we cut down. Not the 53 for opening day. 

[SCBills]

Great projection.  

Can’t argue too much.   Would like to see a vet corner added, but with (what should be) a much improved Front 7, and McDermott as our HC, I’ll pretty much trust him always in regards to the secondary.  
 

I think Hollister has shown enough to cool the jets on Ertz, if that was ever a thing to begin with.  
 

IMO, the last roster spot comes down to Sweeney vs D Johnson vs T Jones.  
 

Id carry 7 WRs… Neither Kumerow, nor Stevenson, are making it to the PS, and we saw what happened last year down the stretch to our receiving unit with being worn down/injured… now add another game to the season. 

[jav]

Taiwan Jones and Tommy Doyle cut. Doyle to PS. That's how we keep Sweeney and Bam Johnson.

[Reader]

45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I agree. Still think they will be in the market for a vet OT at cutdowns but it depends what Alpha is predicting. I take it as the 53 when we cut down. Not the 53 for opening day. 

 

I wonder what the chances are that they would slide Ford over to T and use Ike as guard if Williams or Dawkins gets injured.

[Rocky Landing]

I have a hard time believing that they cut Taiwan Jones, and Bam Johnson. In fact, I have a hard time believing they cut either of them.

 

 

Edited August 22, 2021 by Rocky Landing

[vincec]

3 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I have a hard time believing that they cut Taiwan Jones, and Bam Johnson. In fact, I have a hard time believing they cut either of them.

 

 

I really haven’t seen anything from Brieda that would lead me to believe that they would cut a core ST player for him. Same with Obada WRT Johnson.

[Jeff1954]

Special teams will complicate the end of the roster but, without them, Cam Lewis may well be in front of Siran Neal. Neal’s tackling is a worry.

[Victory Formation]

I’m hoping that we can replace Breida somewhere down the line. Singletary is by far our best back and Moss is pretty decent as well, but I’m not high on Breida.

 

I find the situation we’re facing at TE/WR to be a curious one. Obviously I would like us to keep both Kumerow and Stevenson but I’m concerned about our depth at TE. Neither Knox nor Hollister are premier TEs, but they’re both really decent. Any depth we have behind them is nonexistent though. I think instead of keeping 11 players on DL, we may keep 10. Keep 7 at WR, keep 3 at TE and keep Gilliam at FB. Both Boogie and Rousseau can play not only DE but 3T as well, as can Obada, so we may not need as much depth at DT as we think. I know FB and TE aren’t glamorous positions but I think these players earn their stead in goal line and short yardage positions and against teams with fierce pass rushes as extra in-line blockers and pass protectors.

 

Ultimately I think you have a great list though, but the one thing you cannot foresee is the waiver wire. We may add a few guys to the 53 man roster and it’s almost a given that we’ll see some new faces on the PS. Is a trade out of the question?

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, Reader said:

 

I wonder what the chances are that they would slide Ford over to T and use Ike as guard if Williams or Dawkins gets injured.

 

I think they would go to Spencer Brown first but I think Ford to tackle would be the next option for me personally. 

31 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

I have a hard time believing that they cut Taiwan Jones, and Bam Johnson. In fact, I have a hard time believing they cut either of them.

 

 

 

Taiwan has sat both games. They played Wallace week 1, the competition was won and then they sat him. Some folks don't like the idea Jones is on the team, I don't much like the idea Addison is, but the guys they have been sitting are on the roster IMO.