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Which of the 1st round QBs do you think will bust, and which will be great?


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4 hours ago, Klaus said:

 

During the NFL season I sit next to an Alabama fan and he always goes back to those two as examples of why Alabama produces good QBs. But then we need to look at more recent failures to see why the stigma is rightly attached to Mac that he is most likely going to bust:

 

- Tua - Jury out, but there were some warning signs last year that he isn't the long term solution for the Fins

- Jalen Hurts

- AJ McCarron

- Greg McElroy

- Brodie Croyle 

- Jay Barker

- Mike Shula

- Jeff Rutledge

- Richard Todd

 

Not exactly a list of world beaters. 

 

Then we get to Ohio State, and man is that list of comedy of errors:

- Tom Tupa

- Kent Graham

- Bobby Hoying

- Joe Germaine

- Craig Krenzel

- Troy Smith

- Terrell Pryor

- Cardale Joes

- Dwayne Haskins

 

 

 

 

 

Most of them were late round stabs where the percentage of success in the NFL is pretty low.  If a college with a long time head coach had about 5 or more 1st round busts, then I might be concerned it's just the system.  But still, don't judge a QB by his predecessors.  The reason Aaron Rodgers slipped in the draft was because his college coach, Ted Tedford, as a QB coach, OC & head coach was associated with 1st round NFL dissapointments Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Trent Dilfer & Kyle Boller.  By the time Rodgers entered the 2005 draft NFL teams were afraid to draft a Tedford coached QB, thinking it was more his system that made them look good in college.  

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5 hours ago, Klaus said:

 

During the NFL season I sit next to an Alabama fan and he always goes back to those two as examples of why Alabama produces good QBs. But then we need to look at more recent failures to see why the stigma is rightly attached to Mac that he is most likely going to bust:

 

- Tua - Jury out, but there were some warning signs last year that he isn't the long term solution for the Fins

- Jalen Hurts

- AJ McCarron

- Greg McElroy

- Brodie Croyle 

- Jay Barker

- Mike Shula

- Jeff Rutledge

- Richard Todd

 

Not exactly a list of world beaters. 

 

Then we get to Ohio State, and man is that list of comedy of errors:

- Tom Tupa

- Kent Graham

- Bobby Hoying

- Joe Germaine

- Craig Krenzel

- Troy Smith

- Terrell Pryor

- Cardale Joes

- Dwayne Haskins

 

 

 

 

 

Again I think it's all up to the prospect.. Ohio state hasnt produced many NFL QBs because they ran a offense predicated around running QBs for years .. if your gonna add Hurts to bama , gotta add Burrow to Ohio State

 

They weren't recruiting QBs with big time NFL potential most part.. college is about winning now , not standing in the Pocket and throwing a route tree.. 

 

So they would rather have athletes who can run and throw a little .. even now that is changing with Fields and a freshman they have their Quin Ewers.. who is the #1 HS player and future top 10 pick 

 

So they can recruit a big time NFL prospect if they want 

 

Even Alabama putting out 3 QBs in the last 10 years is great..  considering dozens of schools never get a QB drafted 

 

It's ALWAYS about the individual kid... His drive and passion and work ethic 

 

Look at all 32 starters and you are getting 20+ different schools... There is no QB factory for successful NFL QBs... 

 

2 from Cal - Goff , Rodgers  

 

2 from Clemson- Watson , Lawrence 

 

Tua and Hurts- Alabama

 

Baker and Hurts- Oklahoma 

 

It really boils down to individuals

 

 

 

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Wilson will be a bust in NY then sign somewhere else cheap and become an average starter I believe.

 

Lawrence will be the face of the NFL w Mahomes in a few years. Kid is P Manning kinda special. I think Fields is a bust in Chicago and has a shortened career.  Lance will start and be good for a few years then fizzle out like Kap did as teams figure him out.

 

I am biased on Jones so leaving him out. 

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10 minutes ago, PatsFanNH said:

Wilson will be a bust in NY then sign somewhere else cheap and become an average starter I believe.

 

Lawrence will be the face of the NFL w Mahomes in a few years. Kid is P Manning kinda special. I think Fields is a bust in Chicago and has a shortened career.  Lance will start and be good for a few years then fizzle out like Kap did as teams figure him out.

 

I am biased on Jones so leaving him out. 

If Lawrence ends up being a better player than Josh Allen, I will eat all my shoes and brush my teeth with the toilet brush. 

 

 

 

 

 

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I think Justin Fields will be considered the best in this class in 5 years. Chicago isn't known for being an offensive juggernaut, but I think he has a great skill-set.

 

I think Trey Lance will also be successful because of his athleticism, supporting cast, and offensive staff.

 

There's something about Trevor Lawrence that makes me think he won't be a good NFL qb, but it's purely a gut feeling.

 

Zach Wilson put up big numbers against weak opponents in college, but I do think he has a good arm. If you watch his tape, his wide stance in the pocket and his scrambling have an uncanny resemblance to Josh Allen, but I don't think he'll be anywhere near as good. The Jets will find a way to squander his talent 

 

 

Edited by Allen2Diggs
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I think Wilson is in the worst situation, so I doubt he survives enough to be good. Mac is in a good situation but lacks ability. Lawrence and Lance will be good but not hall of Fame good. Fields I don't want to predict because my biggest insult of him is he went to OSU and all their QBs suck as pro.

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Of what I watched, which wasn't a whole lot, I got the vibe that Fields kinda has it. I think he's got something to him and maybe he'll be a boom, we shall see. 

 

The other guys, I dunno about Lance. Only 19 starts at Nebraska. It sounds nuts to say this because we Bills fans haven't had the franchise QB in forever, but, maybe teams are gonna follow the McBeane Method of Quarterback Development! Lance will need consistent coaching and good WRs (they seem ok there, I like dat Deebo kid) just like they gave Josh. The difference is in work ethic and how well they can understand the system and apply it, etc etc. 

 

I didn't see a lot of Wilson. I know he has a good arm and seems to move around well in the pocket. He can go ahead and throw 9 INTs to the Bills D, though. In one game if he wants to be efficient, or spread out over two, we're not....picky....but we are...cause ya see....JFC I gotta go to bed 

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On 8/11/2021 at 9:38 AM, RobbRiddick said:

I'm always fascinated by the first round QBs every year, all the debates around them, their weaknesses and strengths etc. Out of all the positions in football, there's no other that inspires so many arguments and strong opinions.

 

As someone who doesn't follow college ball, I'm interested to know what people think of this year's crop, which you see as being busts, which you see as being average with a sort of career back-up future, and which you see as being great.

 

I'm trying to watch the tape of them at the moment but I've only seen Wilson so far. My lack of game study has really shown through because one second I think he's going to be a great player down the line, then other times it dawns on me that so many of his games look like practice sessions where he has all day to scan the field and his receivers are wide open.

 

But all in all there's something about the kid that makes me think he's going to succeed. Not just his abilities but his attitude and self belief.

 

How do you guys see the class of 2021 turning out when it's all said and done? These things are always fun to revisit after three or four years. We have some real college experts here so I'm really interested to hear your opinions (I swear I'm not gathering info for any sort of bet...)

Compared to JA17, they will all bust!

8 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Again I think it's all up to the prospect.. Ohio state hasnt produced many NFL QBs because they ran a offense predicated around running QBs for years .. if your gonna add Hurts to bama , gotta add Burrow to Ohio State

 

They weren't recruiting QBs with big time NFL potential most part.. college is about winning now , not standing in the Pocket and throwing a route tree.. 

 

So they would rather have athletes who can run and throw a little .. even now that is changing with Fields and a freshman they have their Quin Ewers.. who is the #1 HS player and future top 10 pick 

 

So they can recruit a big time NFL prospect if they want 

 

Even Alabama putting out 3 QBs in the last 10 years is great..  considering dozens of schools never get a QB drafted 

 

It's ALWAYS about the individual kid... His drive and passion and work ethic 

 

Look at all 32 starters and you are getting 20+ different schools... There is no QB factory for successful NFL QBs... 

 

2 from Cal - Goff , Rodgers  

 

2 from Clemson- Watson , Lawrence 

 

Tua and Hurts- Alabama

 

Baker and Hurts- Oklahoma 

 

It really boils down to individuals

 

 

 

1 (The only one that matters) from Wyoming - Allen

Edited by Weatherman
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My tiers based on my draft grades for each:

 

Tier 1: Trevor Lawrence

Tier 2: 

Tier 3: Justin Fields, Trey Lance

Tier 4: Zach Wilson

Tier 5: Kellen Mond, Mac Jones, Davis Mills

Tier 6: 

Tier 7: Kyle Trask

 

As you can see, I'm relatively low on Mac Jones, and additionally, New England doesn't have all that much offensive talent around him. But you never know with their coaching staff; they've generally found a way to have good offenses so it's hard to count him out. Lance seems to be in the best situation for success. I tend to think Lawrence should be good enough to overcome being in Jacksonville.

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I expect Lawrence to be fine.

 

Wilson is a wild card, but the odds are against him, so I’d call bust there if I had to.

 

Lance, I’m just not sure.  I think Shanny can make him look ok, but didn’t see a lot of passing from him, so this is tough.  Heaps of potential, but I’d still say more likely bust than boom.

 

Jones, I think will be a solid Andy Dalton+ type.

 

Fields, I don’t know why, but I think has a chance to be above average.  I look for him to be a mid-level starter in the NFL, similar to Tannehill.

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On 8/11/2021 at 3:54 PM, RobbRiddick said:

 

Speaking of the 18 draft, this never fails to make me laugh, hearing Rosen say he's coming for Brady's SB record. The guy does have a very punchable face

 

 

I recall hearing this somewhere: 
 

“Arrogance when you are The man against boys can work.  Arrogance when you are a man amongst men can be problematic.” 
 

I think it’s Pythagorean theory.  Or, maybe, Dr. Phil.   

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On 8/11/2021 at 2:52 PM, Klaus said:

There is so much Trey Lance love out there, perhaps because Josh Allen was part of the build up going into the draft? But I just don't see strong parallels to Josh, and will call him being a bit of a bust. 

 

But then again I'm not high on any of these QBs, having an immediate positive impact on their teams this year, but going into year two I think Fields and Lawrence both bring good things to the table. 

Fields went vegan, so automatic bust. He's going to be constantly injured and ineffective.

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