Jump to content

Official Josh Allen Receipts Thread


FFadpecr
 Share

Recommended Posts

34 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I never heard this one. All the analytic geeks hated Josh Allen. Oh Mina…

 

 

Mini Kimes sounded like the wicked witch from Wizard of Oz after the water hits her with her shrieking.  "What a world, what a world..."

  • Haha (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/29/2022 at 6:42 PM, LEBills said:

I still like this one from the Ringer:

https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2018/4/27/17289496/2018-draft-winners-losers-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-lamar-jackson-baltimore-ravens
 

Loser: Bills (for taking Allen)

 

Winner: Every team that did not draft Josh Allen

 

lol

 

3 hours ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

The best part of this gem is the follow up to the Josh Allen rant...

 

Winner: All the Teams That Didn’t Draft Josh Allen

 

Congrats to the Browns for listening to me and drafting Baker Mayfield instead of Josh Allen! Baker Mayfield was historically efficient at passing in college, setting the record for yards per passing attempt as a senior. Meanwhile, Allen averaged fewer yards per passing attempt than Rashaad Penny averaged per rushing attempt against the same competition in the Mountain West Conference.

 

Congrats to the Cardinals, who picked 10th, and got to take Josh Rosen, because one of the teams ahead of them took the other Josh!

 

Bahahahahahahahahahahaha!

 

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I never heard this one. All the analytic geeks hated Josh Allen. Oh Mina…

 

 

It kind of felt like the analytics/lazy analytics people thought this would be a landmark moment in their favor and so gave Allen way more crap than they would normally for a prospect they didn't like. 

 

Still was a landmark moment for analytics, it showed that at the QB position you can't just look at numbers you have to actually look at why those numbers happened.

  • Like (+1) 2
  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

It kind of felt like the analytics/lazy analytics people thought this would be a landmark moment in their favor and so gave Allen way more crap than they would normally for a prospect they didn't like. 

 

Still was a landmark moment for analytics, it showed that at the QB position you can't just look at numbers you have to actually look at why those numbers happened.


Yea I think Allen was a prospect that traditional scouting liked and analytics scouting hated. And so the analytics people  - who are mostly internet warriors trying to make a name for themselves - made Allen there case for why their methods are better. And Allen is a statistical anomaly but their were a lot of contextual things that allowed him to succeed when pure numbers said he would fail. And that is what real scouting picked up that analytic keyboard warrior scouting missed.

 

First, his athleticism, rocket arm and ability to extend the pocket really were ahead of his time. If he had been drafted in 2019 after Mahomes breakout season, their may have been more appreciation for a guy who could run and make plays off script rather than efficiently run a college offense. Now Malik Willis is about to go top 10 because he has the best combination of that mix in this draft.

 

Second, your QB has to be the face of your franchise and leader of the locker room. Josh always had that in college. Baker and Rosen both were considered cocky and not the most popular. 
 

So Josh had none of the numbers (playing on a bad team in a run heavy offense), but all of the physical and personality traits. It really is one of the great draft stories of the last decade.

 

 

  • Like (+1) 1
  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 

 

It kind of felt like the analytics/lazy analytics people thought this would be a landmark moment in their favor and so gave Allen way more crap than they would normally for a prospect they didn't like. 

 

Still was a landmark moment for analytics, it showed that at the QB position you can't just look at numbers you have to actually look at why those numbers happened.

I won’t call them lazy but Mayfield/Darnold vs Allen was 100% analytics driven. It’s also why many fans were so against the pick because analytics was starting to dominate social media. A piece of the analytic world wanted Allen to fail. Now he’ll be an outlier to them.

 

 

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/14/2022 at 11:48 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I won’t call them lazy but Mayfield/Darnold vs Allen was 100% analytics driven. It’s also why many fans were so against the pick because analytics was starting to dominate social media. A piece of the analytic world wanted Allen to fail. Now he’ll be an outlier to them.

 

 

The lazy thing is I think there's a portion of the analytics crowd in the media that isn't actually breaking things down and trying to uses statistics to find patterns so much as using things other actual analytical people have done.

 

On 4/14/2022 at 11:26 AM, LEBills said:


Yea I think Allen was a prospect that traditional scouting liked and analytics scouting hated. And so the analytics people  - who are mostly internet warriors trying to make a name for themselves - made Allen there case for why their methods are better. And Allen is a statistical anomaly but their were a lot of contextual things that allowed him to succeed when pure numbers said he would fail. And that is what real scouting picked up that analytic keyboard warrior scouting missed.

 

First, his athleticism, rocket arm and ability to extend the pocket really were ahead of his time. If he had been drafted in 2019 after Mahomes breakout season, their may have been more appreciation for a guy who could run and make plays off script rather than efficiently run a college offense. Now Malik Willis is about to go top 10 because he has the best combination of that mix in this draft.

 

Second, your QB has to be the face of your franchise and leader of the locker room. Josh always had that in college. Baker and Rosen both were considered cocky and not the most popular. 
 

So Josh had none of the numbers (playing on a bad team in a run heavy offense), but all of the physical and personality traits. It really is one of the great draft stories of the last decade.

 

 

I think the real big thing was his accuracy, just flat looking at numbers on the page and he seemed inaccurate. But like Trent Dilfer pointed out completion percentage is not a great metric for that. The fact was when his mechanics were right Josh threw the ball where he wanted it to go, when they weren't not so much. So the question becomes can he become more consistent in his mechanics, and in the run up to the draft he was already showing improvement.

Edited by Warcodered
  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Here's the longer version:  

 

Have any of them ever replayed this publicly and say they were wrong?

11 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

The lazy thing is I think there's a portion of the analytics crowd in the media that isn't actually breaking things down and trying to uses statistics to find patterns so much as using things other actual analytical people have done.

 

I think the real big thing was his accuracy, just flat looking at numbers on the page and he seemed inaccurate. But like Trent Dilfer pointed out completion percentage is not a great metric for that. The fact was when his mechanics were right Josh threw the ball where he wanted it to go, when they weren't not as much. So the question becomes can he become more consistent in his mechanics, and in the run up to the draft he was already showing improvement.

I think the problem with analytics when it comes to QB is college stats mean absolutely nothing when it comes to success in the NFL. Especially for QB. Yes most of the top picks have good stats but so do a lot of undrafted QBs. RAS scores, wins, and stats won’t tell us anything about how a college QB will play in the NFL.

Edited by Buffalo_Stampede
  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, LEBills said:

If he had been drafted in 2019 after Mahomes breakout season, their may have been more appreciation for a guy who could run and make plays off script rather than efficiently run a college offense. Now Malik Willis is about to go top 10 because he has the best combination of that mix in this draft.

I think that was a big reason Zach Wilson vaulted up draft boards, it was the year after JA's breakout and now people had 2 examples of big arms throwing off script working.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/14/2022 at 1:06 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Have any of them ever replayed this publicly and say they were wrong?

I think the problem with analytics when it comes to QB is college stats mean absolutely nothing when it comes to success in the NFL. Especially for QB. Yes most of the top picks have good stats but so do a lot of undrafted QBs. RAS scores, wins, and stats won’t tell us anything about how a college QB will play in the NFL.

 

 

Very very very few people actually understand how to make a proper NFL evaluation/projection for a College Draft QB.

 

Some very important notes:

 

1) Box score stats for a QB in college mean absolutely NOTHING. Don't even look at his stats in college - that's how you get fooled. Those stats are always a direct reflection of the college supporting cast and scheme, not the QB himself. (See: Colt Brennan, Dwayne Haskins, Justin Fields, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan - 19 INTs his senior year, overall sub-60% comp in 4 years)

 

2) College "accomplishments" mean absolutely NOTHING in regards to the NFL projection. Totally meaningless. (See: Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Ryan Leaf)

 

3) The complete misuse of the term "quality of competition". It SHOULD be: "quality of competition relative to your own supporting cast". Example: Josh Allen faced weak competition in college, based on the quality of teams he faced relative to all of college football. That is true. Here's the trick: What is ALSO true: The weak competition that Josh Allen faced in college, was BETTER than his own supporting cast at Wyoming. Every time Josh Allen took the field at Wyoming, the opposing DL was better than his own OL, the opposing DBs were better than his own WRs. Look at QBs that play at powerhouses Alabama and Ohio State that underwhelm in the NFL; they play against "good" competition relative to college football, but their own teams are actually better teams than the good teams they are facing. Remember: "Quality of competition relative to own supporting cast"

 

4) Don't look for QBs who "complete passes", look for QBs who "make throws" aka "make high-level NFL throws". This requires a strong feel for the NFL game to understand what those kind of throws look like. 

 

5) QBs that hold onto the ball and take sacks consistently in college, will hold onto the ball and take sacks consistently in the NFL. This has proven to be the stickiest trait from college to NFL.

 

6) QB evaluation is completely different than any other positional evaluation because the QB prospect's Draft Grade is 50% Tangibles and 50% Intangibles. At all other positions, it's more like 80% Tangibles and 20% Intangibles. The Intangibles are weighted much more heavily for QBs than other positions, that's why it's different.

  • Like (+1) 4
  • Awesome! (+1) 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/29/2022 at 7:42 PM, LEBills said:

I still like this one from the Ringer:

https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/nfl/2018/4/27/17289496/2018-draft-winners-losers-buffalo-bills-josh-allen-lamar-jackson-baltimore-ravens
 

Loser: Bills (for taking Allen)

 

Winner: Every team that did not draft Josh Allen

 

lol

At least he later realized his error rather than clinging on to it like some prized treasure… this is his tweet from earlier this year

 

The demigod-centaur line is epic

Edited by CorkScrewHill
  • Haha (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I love Josh Allen. I remember hearing about him in the spring game and his rocket arm but ultimately they went with the senior in cam. He got injured vs emu and Josh came in and just looked the part. Then he got injured. But man that 2016 season was a blast. I just knew this kid was special! You could tell in all his interviews just the type of person this kid was. Been so dang fun watching him through the years. I think he is going to be crazy awesome this year and we will see a huge mvp season! 

  • Like (+1) 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 4/14/2022 at 11:07 AM, Warcodered said:

It kind of felt like the analytics/lazy analytics people thought this would be a landmark moment in their favor and so gave Allen way more crap than they would normally for a prospect they didn't like. 

 

Still was a landmark moment for analytics, it showed that at the QB position you can't just look at numbers you have to actually look at why those numbers happened.

 

Yeah, I forget who said it or the exact words, but someone said something to the effect that scouting Josh Allen encapsulated the conflict between old-school shoesole scouting vs. modern analytics.  And I do think the Bills employ analytics, but the caveat with analytics is that you have to look carefully at the boundary conditions for your data set, and not try to apply analytics-driven conclusions outside those boundary conditions.

 

12 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

At least he later realized his error rather than clinging on to it like some prized treasure… this is his tweet from earlier this year

 

The demigod-centaur line is epic

 

He's kind of skating on his original take.  Rodger Sherman's Ringer article (linked above):

Quote

I would consider any team that used a first-round pick on Josh Allen to be the biggest loser of the first round. No good NFL quarterback has ever had statistics as bad as Allen’s college stats; his best-case statistical comparables include Brian Griese and Josh McCown. There are just so many videos of him missing easy passes so badly. Sure, his arm is strong enough that teams should value his potential, but “extremely strong quarterback who may never learn how to throw to receivers” seems to me like a Day 3 pick, not a first-rounder. I remain baffled that he was treated like a top prospect throughout the entire draft process.

 

That's more like "I was certain that Josh Allen would NOT be able to play QB in the NFL"

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, CorkScrewHill said:

At least he later realized his error rather than clinging on to it like some prized treasure… this is his tweet from earlier this year

 

The demigod-centaur line is epic

He soft pedaled when he started his tweet with “I don’t think he can pla QB in the NFL”.  That’s not at all what he said in the article.  He was adamant that Allen was a joke and that 31 teams “won” the draft because they didn’t pick him.  

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...