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This is a simple Poll. Will Josh Allen regress?


Will Josh Allen Regress, Stay the same or get better?  

277 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Josh Regress

    • Yes.. a lot
    • Yes a little
    • No about same numbers
    • No he will be a little better
    • HECK NO! Josh will take another leap!

This poll is closed to new votes


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2 hours ago, eball said:

 

Yup.  This entire thread is a bit irritating to me (I know, so why am I here) but the whole concept of “regression” needs to be defined.  Is it simply statistics (as I believe the OP intended) or is it — as I believe you, I, and others view it — whether or not Josh gets “worse” as an NFL QB?  If the latter, there is literally no reason to believe he takes a step backwards.  He is relentlessly motivated and dedicated to improving his craft, and we’ve seen the results before our very eyes.  I don’t give a crap about whether he throws for 300 fewer yards or 10 fewer TDs, or tosses a few more picks because he is taking some chances.  He will be a better QB.

 

I’m also too lazy to look it up but I’d still like to know if QB performance overall last season (without crowds) was markedly better than it was in 2019 or 2018.  This has been brought up several times as a reason why Josh will do worse this season but I’d like to know if the numbers back it up.

 


I’m not sure if numbers back up playing with (or without) crowds affected QB stats, but I know for a fact that hostile away crowds make the qbs jobs more difficult.  Josh said it himself.  
 

our boy is just getting better

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This is really a question about our entire offense-- and the answers bode well. If Diggs, and Cole can maintain their efficiency (I believe they will), if Sanders is an upgrade over Brown (I believe he is), if Knox improves his drop tendencies (good chance), if Hollister proves to be an upgrade to Kroft (I believe he will be), if the O-line does not regress (why would they), and if there is even a slight improvement to the run game (fingers crossed), then Allen's numbers go up.

 

Go Bills.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

This is really a question about our entire offense-- and the answers bode well. If Diggs, and Cole can maintain their efficiency (I believe they will), if Sanders is an upgrade over Brown (I believe he is), if Knox improves his drop tendencies (good chance), if Hollister proves to be an upgrade to Kroft (I believe he will be), if the O-line does not regress (why would they), and if there is even a slight improvement to the run game (fingers crossed), then Allen's numbers go up.

 

Go Bills.

 

 

 

If we can improve the run game then Allen's numbers go down and that's a great thing. With no run game last year it seemed everything was on Allen and the passing game. I hope we have a balanced offense this year. Allen's numbers go down but we will have a more dangerous offense.

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Numbers may or may not be as good. We don’t even know if he will have Bease as a target, but Allen will be a better QB by year’s end than on day one. Getting better is what he does. He’s the real deal and a DC’s nightmare. Its not all rocket science. Like PM you pretty much know what he’s going to do the problem is stopping him. I don’t think having now seen him for a couple of years is going to give opposing teams much additional insight. 

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His numbers could slightly regress if things play out in a certain way but in regards to his quality level, he will in my view be a better QB.  Sometimes being better doesn't necessarily translate in the numbers, even though I do expect him to have really good numbers again.

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10 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

If we can improve the run game then Allen's numbers go down and that's a great thing. With no run game last year it seemed everything was on Allen and the passing game. I hope we have a balanced offense this year. Allen's numbers go down but we will have a more dangerous offense.

Perhaps attempts go down. But, the run game isn't going to get so much better that we stop playing a spread offense. And, comp%, TDs, QBR? ^UP^

Hopefully Ints go down as well. Maybe "up" was the wrong word to use...

 

I guess my point is that the Bills will very likely be a better team this year. And as the team improves, Allen improves right along with them.

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Like a plurality of folks, I voted for a slight improvement.  Josh has gotten better every year and yet still has room for improvement.  I'm not sure why I should believe he won't improve this season - that his trajectory will suddenly change.

 

 

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The offense is basically intact, bringing back everyone except John Brown. In John Brown's place we added Sanders, who is a far better route runner and more sure-handed. Davis will be going into his 2nd year and should continue to grow. Hodgins will finally be able to get a look. We still have McKenzie. We added Hollister, whom Allen played with at Wyoming. Knox has apparently been working his tail off to get better. The OL is intact and we added some younger depth. We added Breida to the RB group. Daboll is still the OC. These guys are also getting a full, normal offseason in together which can't be underestimated. Then you throw in Josh's competitive nature, his relentless work ethic, and you have a QB poised to take another step forward. This is what I expect, that Josh will again show improvement. 

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I didn't vote - I'm holding out for the simple poll on whether Duke William's will regress - I will vote in that poll. This off-season is getting a little long.

The good news is that training camp starts in about a month! Football is coming soon!

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I voted he'll be a little better.

 

I expect defenses will deploy countermeasures.  I think, however, Allen and Daboll can expect some of them, and quickly adapt to those they can't.  

 

Three key details:  I think coaching consistency really helps.  I expect the Bills to develop the running game to a degree to keep defenses guessing. I expect Gabe Davis and the TE to apply consistent pressure on the defense's second and third tier CBs.   This is what someone astutely pointed out about Steve Tasker - he was a lot better than the defensive talent at the nickel position, and he exploited it. 

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A Pats* fan I work with was trying to make a case that the Bills were some sort of anomaly last season, and would not repeat last season's success.

One of his arguments (which is a common refrain on the Pats* fan forum): "Allen has been exposed..."

 

"Right," I replied, "Allen has been exposed as an elite passer, and running threat who can read defenses, and extend plays with his athleticism. The Bills are doomed."

 

An improved running game may reduce the amount Allen passes, but I don't see any reason to assume anything that should be interpreted as a regression on the horizon. Barring some nagging injury (like Mahomes' turf toe), Allen really should just continue his trajectory. Likely he gets a little better, and at some point, levels off. Don't expect him to start "regressing" until his body starts to decline in a decade, or so.

 

 

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Statistically speaking the vast majority of offenses that have put up 50 or more TDs have regressed the following season, with a few exceptions. Tennessee 2019 to 2020 improved on their 50+ TD offense. There was a New England offense that did as well. It’s just not very common, so I would expect the Bills offense may not put up 50+ TDs again. Does that mean Josh regressed? Depends on what the metric is.

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