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Football Outsiders: Anti-Dynasty Rankings


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The drought Bills should rank pretty high, but there are probably worse stretches for other teams.

 

The Browns had a 17 season drought from 2003 to 2019, and had some historically bad seasons including a winless season during that span. They went 4-44 from 2015 to 2017. That's worse, I think.

Edited by MJS
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Going strictly by the point system it looks like they have them ranked around #30 with 46 anti-dynasty points. They have the Bills 2014 winning season as ending the anti-dynasty. They have the 67-72 teams ranked worse totaling 55 anti-dynasty points. Those teams finished last in the league twice out of a six year run. 

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41 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

The ******* should be a word that’s never ever spoken of among us Bills fans. And that’s coming from someone who is 110% for freedom of speech. 

I'll make sure never to say asterisk seven times.

 

What was so maddening about the drought is we won six to nine games 14 of the 17 seasons and only drafted in the top five twice (not including the trade up for Watkins).  We should get the mediocrity award or something.

 

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1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

I know Doc, 9 of those 17 years we had at least 7 wins.  It was maddening.  50, I promise I’ll never say *******.  The mods need to put on the no go list. 🏈🤪😂😇🏋️♀️.  Just kidding bud.

I had endless discussions with friends that misremember the details of the Bills drought. We were a losing team in totality but year-in, year-out we were never in discussion of the worst team in the league save for 2010. And until 2009 we felt a few steps away from the playoffs. 09-14 the wheels fell off a bit but even still 6 wins isnt god awful. Its just have 6 wins so many years in a row.

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We were a slightly less than mediocre team for 18 years. A couple good seasons (9-7), a couple of bad ones (3-13), but overall a 7-9 type football club. 

 

Never good enough to get past the Patriots. Never bad enough, or smart enough, to overhaul. Just good enough to elicit hope year after year after year. 

 

Them days are over. 

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3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I'll make sure never to say asterisk seven times.

 

What was so maddening about the drought is we won six to nine games 14 of the 17 seasons and only drafted in the top five twice (not including the trade up for Watkins).  We should get the mediocrity award or something.

 

 

The Jauron Curse.  That guy could coach up a crappy team to mediocrity like no other.  It killed us.

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6 hours ago, jletha said:

I had endless discussions with friends that misremember the details of the Bills drought. We were a losing team in totality but year-in, year-out we were never in discussion of the worst team in the league save for 2010. And until 2009 we felt a few steps away from the playoffs. 09-14 the wheels fell off a bit but even still 6 wins isnt god awful. Its just have 6 wins so many years in a row.

I always compare them to a slot machine at a casino.  They keep giving you hope but eventually the House always wins.

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Agree the Bills drought should be reasonably high on the list but probably not near the top.  The drought was impressive because of its duration, but really it was a period of mediocrity rather than compete ineptitude.  The Bills had one 3-13 season and one 4-12 season.  The bulk of them were 6-10 and 7-9 with a couple 8-8s and 9-7s mixed in. 

 

Teams like the Browns or Bengals which had multiple top 5 draft picks to help turn things around were more inept even if they did have the one-off wild card birth during their run.   

 

Edit:  I just looked it up and forgot about Courtney Brown meaning the Browns had four(!) #1overall picks from Tim Couch in 1999 to Baker in 2018.  Also interestingly, they had back to back 1st overall picks both times (Couch 99, Brown 00, -> Garret 2017, Mayfield 2018)

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17 hours ago, MJS said:

The drought Bills should rank pretty high, but there are probably worse stretches for other teams.

 

The Browns had a 17 season drought from 2003 to 2019, and had some historically bad seasons including a winless season during that span. They went 4-44 from 2015 to 2017. That's worse, I think.

 

The drought Bills were bad but not tragically bad, I do suspect that the drought will be on the list certainly the 2009-2013 stretch where the Bills had four 6 win seasons and a 4 win season in a five years span. The rest of the drought just looks like mediocrity and a couple of instances of bad luck. If you take out 2009-2013 from the drought you have a team that only finished 3 times below 7 wins (2001, 2003 and 2005) had 5 seasons of 8 or more wins (2000, 2002, 2004, 2014 and 2015) and then a bunch of 7 win seasons ( 2006-2008 and 2016). It really was that stretch over 2009-2013 where the team was just horrendously stuck at 6 wins and very little hope.

 

I don't think the Bills will be too high on the list because there other teams like the 2007-2011 Rams that had win totals of 3, 2, 1, 7 and 2 in a five year span and several 6-7 win seasons afterwards. I think the Bills are more likely to be on the middle of the list as the drought years were bad but not painfully tragic like some of these other stretches. 

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2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The drought Bills were bad but not tragically bad, I do suspect that the drought will be on the list certainly the 2009-2013 stretch where the Bills had four 6 win seasons and a 4 win season in a five years span. The rest of the drought just looks like mediocrity and a couple of instances of bad luck. If you take out 2009-2013 from the drought you have a team that only finished 3 times below 7 wins (2001, 2003 and 2005) had 5 seasons of 8 or more wins (2000, 2002, 2004, 2014 and 2015) and then a bunch of 7 win seasons ( 2006-2008 and 2016). It really was that stretch over 2009-2013 where the team was just horrendously stuck at 6 wins and very little hope.

 

I don't think the Bills will be too high on the list because there other teams like the 2007-2011 Rams that had win totals of 3, 2, 1, 7 and 2 in a five year span and several 6-7 win seasons afterwards. I think the Bills are more likely to be on the middle of the list as the drought years were bad but not painfully tragic like some of these other stretches. 

Part of the problem was being so mediocre. We could never get to the playoffs but could never get a top draft pick either. It kept the team stuck for a long time.

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7 minutes ago, MJS said:

Part of the problem was being so mediocre. We could never get to the playoffs but could never get a top draft pick either. It kept the team stuck for a long time.


That was an issue but I would also say that the Bills also suffered from bad ownership during most of the drought. That’s not to disrespect all that Ralph has done for the team but he was more of an old school owner who ran the team as a profit center and not a vanity project where year to year losses don’t matter.

 

There we’re so many years where the Bills didn’t spend money on free agents and weren’t in the running for a lot of the better coaches. The Bills also had lackluster facilities and were a third tier destination in all aspects. Even if the Bills had a great QB they didn’t have the infrastructure in place to actually take advantage of one. 
 

If you aren’t going to spend to the cap for a long period of time and you can’t find a good coach or invest in the infrastructure of the team it will not end well. The Chan years were a dark time in my fandom honestly I had just written off the team as ever having a chance to do anything.

 

Glad to be very far away from that. 

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3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

2001 - 2013 Bills came in at #48. Not very high on the list at all. 

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/anti-dynasty-rankings-41-50-brady-saves-bucs


Their analysis was pretty spot on, the teams were often just below average but not tragic and there were a couple of years where bad luck resulted in not making the playoffs.

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