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Athletic article: Will having fans back impact QBs play?

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Logic All Pro

Logic

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I think this is a very interesting question. 

Personally, I expect a regression from Josh Allen this season. Note, I'm not saying MAJOR regression. I'm not saying he's gonna be BAD. I think he'll still be very good and will still lead the Bills to the playoffs. I just expect a drop in completion percentage, passer rating, and touchdowns scored. 

I think the lack of crowd noise definitely contributed to Josh's success in 2020. The return of a loud, large, hostile crowd sure seemed to negatively affect him in the AFC Championship game. I just hope that the experience and confidence he gained from having such a great year will carry over, and he'll continue to be the elite franchise QB that he appeared to be last season.

 

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SCBills All Pro

SCBills

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5 minutes ago, Logic said:

I think this is a very interesting question. 

Personally, I expect a regression from Josh Allen this season. Note, I'm not saying MAJOR regression. I'm not saying he's gonna be BAD. I think he'll still be very good and will still lead the Bills to the playoffs. I just expect a drop in completion percentage, passer rating, and touchdowns scored. 

I think the lack of crowd noise definitely contributed to Josh's success in 2020. The return of a loud, large, hostile crowd sure seemed to negatively affect him in the AFC Championship game. I just hope that the experience and confidence he gained from having such a great year will carry over, and he'll continue to be the elite franchise QB that he appeared to be last season.

 


Ive mentioned a few times that the crowd noise is something to watch, but it is REALLY hard to take much from that KC game.   
 

Yes, he clearly struggled more with late clock call changes.  
 

However, we had no running game, an OL that was abused that day, and (what we know now to be) an incredibly beat up WR room.. every WR with a significant injury.  

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msw2112 Veteran

msw2112

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I don't think it will affect Rodgers.  He's a veteran who has made great plays, won a SB, and done virtually everything an NFL QB can do in front of full crowds.  Might it impact Allen, who had his breakout season with no/few fans, or Herbert, who had a great rookie year with no fans?  It's possible.  I can't speak for Herbert, but Josh is the kind of guy who works as hard as he can to overcome his deficiencies, so if crowd noise does negatively impact his play this year, I suspect that it's something he will work on until he masters it.

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Logic All Pro

Logic

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42 minutes ago, SCBills said:


Ive mentioned a few times that the crowd noise is something to watch, but it is REALLY hard to take much from that KC game.   
 

Yes, he clearly struggled more with late clock call changes.  
 

However, we had no running game, an OL that was abused that day, and (what we know now to be) an incredibly beat up WR room.. every WR with a significant injury.  



Don't discount the possibility that part of the reason the OL was beaten so badly and so often is that Josh wasn't able to properly relay protection changes to them due to crowd noise. Sure, they were just beaten physically in many instances, but we also can't assume that an OL and QB that got used to being able to communicate clearly all year weren't suddenly a bit worse for the wear once that communication was negatively affected.

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NewEra Hall of Famer

NewEra

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4 minutes ago, Logic said:



Don't discount the possibility that part of the reason the OL was beaten so badly and so often is that Josh wasn't able to properly relay protection changes to them due to crowd noise. Sure, they were just beaten physically in many instances, but we also can't assume that an OL and QB that got used to being able to communicate clearly all year weren't suddenly a bit worse for the wear once that communication was negatively affected.

All of your points in this thread are spot on

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JGMcD2 Veteran

JGMcD2

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1 hour ago, Logic said:

I think this is a very interesting question. 

Personally, I expect a regression from Josh Allen this season. Note, I'm not saying MAJOR regression. I'm not saying he's gonna be BAD. I think he'll still be very good and will still lead the Bills to the playoffs. I just expect a drop in completion percentage, passer rating, and touchdowns scored. 

I think the lack of crowd noise definitely contributed to Josh's success in 2020. The return of a loud, large, hostile crowd sure seemed to negatively affect him in the AFC Championship game. I just hope that the experience and confidence he gained from having such a great year will carry over, and he'll continue to be the elite franchise QB that he appeared to be last season.

 

Ironically I read that during drill work today they were pumping in crowd noise. 
 

Obviously not the same but it seems like something they’re aware of and going to work through. 

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SCBills All Pro

SCBills

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12 minutes ago, JESSEFEFFER said:

Home/road splits for his career doesn't show a road problem:

 

image.thumb.png.fb727ab5a73264eb6a52d5c16344f0f5.png


His two biggest road games, prior to this year, were Dallas (he was phenomenal) and Houston WC Game (he was good in the first half and then fell apart down the stretch). 

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78thealltimegreat Veteran

78thealltimegreat

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3 hours ago, BillsMafi$ said:

 

I could see it but Josh has shown the ability to adjust I’m sure they’ll implement things like silent snap counts and the like to adjust other then KC the Bills really don’t have a bunch of road opponents known for loud stadiums like say traveling to Seattle 

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Big Blitz Hall of Famer

Big Blitz

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You could put 200,000 Dolphins fans in Hard Rock Stadium he's still throwing for 375 and 4 TDs.

 

At home Josh lit up the Rams.  Did everyone see what the Rams D did to teams last year?  To QBs who were also at home or in L.A. where there were zero fans.

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billsfan1959 Veteran

billsfan1959

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The question was "Will there be a statistical price to pay for Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert & others who lit it up on the road on 3rd-and-long..."

 

Josh Allen has been at the top of the league in 3rd and long passing the past two seasons:

 

                   Down/Dist  Cmp    Att    Inc    Cmp%    Yds    TD    1D    Int    Rate
2019          3rd & 7-9      14       27    13      51.85      168    2       8      1      80.5

                  3rd & 10+      26      44    18      59.09     361    3      14      0    108.2

 

2020         3rd & 7-9       13      24    11       54.17      183    2       9      1     89.4

                  3rd & 10+       21      27    6        77.78     259    0       11     0    106.6
 

I couldn't find the splits for 3rd and long on the road vs at home; however, I did see them somewhere and they were actually better on the road - as has been his overall play.  He threw for better Comp%, more Yds, more TDs, less INTs, higher Y/A, etc., etc., on the road vs at home in both 2019 and 2020.

 

And as for overall play, if lack of crowd noise was such an advantage, then why did no other QB experience an overall improvement similar to Allen? 

 

IMHO, I do not believe Allen will regress this year. I believe he will be even better.

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