Doc Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 1 minute ago, Gene Frenkle said: Because the same thing keeps happening over and over. What thing? Mid-term losses by the party that has the Presidency? Yes, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Gene Frenkle said: Because the same thing keeps happening over and over. And a lot of innocent people lost their homes and savings in 2008 and are still recovering. Obviously not you I see. 2000 is not 2008 is not 2021... You only lose what wasn’t really there in the first place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Gene Frenkle said: The stock market is extremely overleveraged, historically so. Crypto has lost more than $1 trillion in May alone. Banks and market makers are in seriously bad positions because of systemic, repeated naked short selling of stocks and even US bonds. Real collateral no longer compensates for what they've borrowed. The market is going to crash, but not because of who's in the White House. That's a simpleton's view. Absolutely. This is the 3rd speculative frenzy I've witnessed the first two being the dot.com and housing bubbles. I got killed in the first one, partially escaped the second in pretty good share, and have myself in a position to avoid most of the pain of what's coming. This time it's a speculative frenzy of everything and almost every asset class and type courtesy of the Federal Reserves monetary policies. Throw in uncontrolled government debt. 3rd times a charm I guess. While the markets are overleveraged and overvalued it won't be a realization or reaction to those two factors that brings it down. Everybody already knows both those things but everyone thinks they can jump off just at the right time to avoid any big losses. That thinking never changes but rarely works out well. You can chalk it all up to the suspension of risk or the inability of markets to assess and price risk correctly. What triggers the crisis will be something that comes as a surprise. A Black Swan event is one term used to describe that type of event. Could be something like a COVID resurgence in the Fall, the outbreak of war somewhere, the termination of dollar denominating settlement for oil trades, or something else. Biden didn't create this mess and it was going to come to a climax sometime 2021-2022 no matter who won the election but like all Presidents before him he'll get the blame. And if it happens close enough to the 2022 election and negatively impacts the "real" economy in a big way and you can be sure the far-left "experiment" in government and all the social justice causes and virtue signaling attached to it are going to come to a crashing end. I've always concluded the Democrats should have let Trump win and let him take the fall. But their obsession to remove him through any means possible regardless of any consequences or costs couldn't be controlled. They are what people in the markets call "Bagholders". The people that end of holding and taking big losses. In this case left holding the bag of running the government when everything goes to Hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TH3 Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: Absolutely. This is the 3rd speculative frenzy I've witnessed the first two being the dot.com and housing bubbles. I got killed in the first one, partially escaped the second in pretty good share, and have myself in a position to avoid most of the pain of what's coming. This time it's a speculative frenzy of everything and almost every asset class and type courtesy of the Federal Reserves monetary policies. Throw in uncontrolled government debt. 3rd times a charm I guess. While the markets are overleveraged and overvalued it won't be a realization or reaction to those two factors that brings it down. Everybody already knows both those things but everyone thinks they can jump off just at the right time to avoid any big losses. That thinking never changes but rarely works out well. You can chalk it all up to the suspension of risk or the inability of markets to assess and price risk correctly. What triggers the crisis will be something that comes as a surprise. A Black Swan event is one term used to describe that type of event. Could be something like a COVID resurgence in the Fall, the outbreak of war somewhere, the termination of dollar denominating settlement for oil trades, or something else. Biden didn't create this mess and it was going to come to a climax sometime 2021-2022 no matter who won the election but like all Presidents before him he'll get the blame. And if it happens close enough to the 2022 election and negatively impacts the "real" economy in a big way and you can be sure the far-left "experiment" in government and all the social justice causes and virtue signaling attached to it are going to come to a crashing end. I've always concluded the Democrats should have let Trump win and let him take the fall. But their obsession to remove him through any means possible regardless of any consequences or costs couldn't be controlled. They are what people in the markets call "Bagholders". The people that end of holding and taking big losses. In this case left holding the bag of running the government when everything goes to Hell. What’s a crash ? Dow 20k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, TH3 said: What’s a crash ? Dow 20k? That's about 40% downside. I think most investors would consider something near a 40% drop in their equity portfolio value to be a crash. But don't just focus on equity markets. We need to watch debt markets and currencies too. I mean what would even a 2% rise in interest rates do to the housing and debt markets? What are the consequences of interest payments taking up 1/3 of US Federal budgets? If the dollar suddenly losses purchasing power what implications does that have for a country that imports much of what it consumes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Frenkle Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 1 hour ago, All_Pro_Bills said: Absolutely. This is the 3rd speculative frenzy I've witnessed the first two being the dot.com and housing bubbles. I got killed in the first one, partially escaped the second in pretty good share, and have myself in a position to avoid most of the pain of what's coming. This time it's a speculative frenzy of everything and almost every asset class and type courtesy of the Federal Reserves monetary policies. Throw in uncontrolled government debt. 3rd times a charm I guess. While the markets are overleveraged and overvalued it won't be a realization or reaction to those two factors that brings it down. Everybody already knows both those things but everyone thinks they can jump off just at the right time to avoid any big losses. That thinking never changes but rarely works out well. You can chalk it all up to the suspension of risk or the inability of markets to assess and price risk correctly. What triggers the crisis will be something that comes as a surprise. A Black Swan event is one term used to describe that type of event. Could be something like a COVID resurgence in the Fall, the outbreak of war somewhere, the termination of dollar denominating settlement for oil trades, or something else. Biden didn't create this mess and it was going to come to a climax sometime 2021-2022 no matter who won the election but like all Presidents before him he'll get the blame. And if it happens close enough to the 2022 election and negatively impacts the "real" economy in a big way and you can be sure the far-left "experiment" in government and all the social justice causes and virtue signaling attached to it are going to come to a crashing end. I've always concluded the Democrats should have let Trump win and let him take the fall. But their obsession to remove him through any means possible regardless of any consequences or costs couldn't be controlled. They are what people in the markets call "Bagholders". The people that end of holding and taking big losses. In this case left holding the bag of running the government when everything goes to Hell. This guy gets it. Polarized politics will be the least of our concerns soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Frenkle Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 @All_Pro_Bills what is your strategy for before and after the coming events, if you don't mind sharing? 2 hours ago, Doc said: What thing? Mid-term losses by the party that has the Presidency? Yes, I agree. The fact that you think there's still a difference between these greedy bastards says a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted May 23, 2021 Share Posted May 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, Gene Frenkle said: The fact that you think there's still a difference between these greedy bastards says a lot. I've never not said that they're not all greedy bastards. But there are differences beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gene Frenkle Posted May 24, 2021 Share Posted May 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Doc said: I've never not said that they're not all greedy bastards. But there are differences beyond that. Well, there's certainly a difference in the two narratives we're being fed. If they generally don't do what they say anyway, what are those differences again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 https://hotair.com/ed-morrissey/2021/05/27/biden-hey-lets-jack-up-annual-spending-by-20-or-so-n392913 Biden: Hey, let's jack up annual spending by 20% or so FTA: As I argued, this budget has no chance at all of passing in Congress. However, it shifts the Overton window on deficit spending yet again in the money-printing direction. Our fiscal policies have become completely unmoored from reality, and this budget proposal is only the more extreme example of our irresponsibility. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 The former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under the Obama administration reports that almost all of the economists he has surveyed believe the ‘American Rescue Plan’ rammed through by Democrats was “too large.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillStime Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 18 minutes ago, B-Man said: The former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under the Obama administration reports that almost all of the economists he has surveyed believe the ‘American Rescue Plan’ rammed through by Democrats was “too large.” Just like Trumps tax cut to the rich? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 (edited) The great restaurant price hike: Eateries across the country are raising prices after soaring inflation sees ingredients costs DOUBLE in just one year by Bevan Hurley https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9634229/Eateries-country-raising-prices-soaring-inflation-sees-ingredients-costs-triple.html A New Hampshire restaurateur has apologized to customers for putting prices up after the cost of basic items like oil, meat and gloves rose by as much as 300%. Alan Natkiel, the owner of Georgia's Northside in Concord, says the price of brisket has gone up 185%, chicken breast is up 70%, and fryer oil costs have doubled in the past three months, while plastic gloves were three times as expensive as pre-pandemic prices. [SNIP] Natkiel says the surge in prices has even forced him to stop serving chicken wings as a national shortage has made them so pricey they were no longer commercially viable. Edited May 31, 2021 by B-Man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, B-Man said: The great restaurant price hike: Eateries across the country are raising prices after soaring inflation sees ingredients costs DOUBLE in just one year by Bevan Hurley https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9634229/Eateries-country-raising-prices-soaring-inflation-sees-ingredients-costs-triple.html A New Hampshire restaurateur has apologized to customers for putting prices up after the cost of basic items like oil, meat and gloves rose by as much as 300%. Alan Natkiel, the owner of Georgia's Northside in Concord, says the price of brisket has gone up 185%, chicken breast is up 70%, and fryer oil costs have doubled in the past three months, while plastic gloves were three times as expensive as pre-pandemic prices. [SNIP] Natkiel says the surge in prices has even forced him to stop serving chicken wings as a national shortage has made them so pricey they were no longer commercially viable. Makes you wonder why they're trying to exhume the corpse of 1/6 again... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unforgiven Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 13 hours ago, Doc said: Makes you wonder why they're trying to exhume the corpse of 1/6 again... fear porn, they have lost their grip with covid, lefties just can't stop preying on the weak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted May 31, 2021 Share Posted May 31, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 OUR GARBAGE MEDIA STRIKES AGAIN CBS News is out today with a story about those cruel, heartless Republican governors who are cutting off the supplemental unemployment benefits of $300 a week that pay more to many workers than actual jobs. https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/06/our-garbage-media-strikes-again.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted June 1, 2021 Share Posted June 1, 2021 4 hours ago, B-Man said: OUR GARBAGE MEDIA STRIKES AGAIN CBS News is out today with a story about those cruel, heartless Republican governors who are cutting off the supplemental unemployment benefits of $300 a week that pay more to many workers than actual jobs. https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/06/our-garbage-media-strikes-again.php They should pay these morons not to work. We'd all be better off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted June 2, 2021 Share Posted June 2, 2021 THAT ’70S SHOW: Friday’s Jobs Report May Blow Up Biden’s Presidency. https://pjmedia.com/uncategorized/rick-moran/2021/06/02/fridays-jobs-report-may-blow-up-bidens-presidency-n1451467 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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