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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Just a point here, that there's a lot of space between "Browns will stay in the basement forever" and saying that they are now ahead of the Bills in the AFC.

They may be, they may not be - they made a lot more offseason moves because they had more ground to gain IMO.

 

Truth, but they made good progress last year and I do not see enough roster loss or FO/coaching change to have a good justication for them losing ground.

 

The Steelers are a shell of their former selves. Baltimore has been losing some ground, and the Bengals are the Bengals... Browns have a pretty good shot at winning their division again.

 

The Bills backed into the playoffs, to end our drought, and have since earned our last two appearances.

 

The Browns finally broke their post season drought (2002) last year.

 

I won't count a team as actually "ahead" of us till they beat us and not just once.

 

A lot comes down to matchup. If we played the Titans twice would we beat them?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, WideNine said:

Truth, but they made good progress last year and I do not see enough roster loss or FO/coaching change to have a good justication for them losing ground.

 

I'm pretty much aligned with the notion the Browns probably gained ground.  I just go here:

 

9 hours ago, WideNine said:

I won't count a team as actually "ahead" of us till they beat us and not just once.

A lot comes down to matchup. If we played the Titans twice would we beat them?

 

People like to treat the NFL like a transitive property, A>B and B>C so A>C.  It doesn't work that way.

 

9 hours ago, WideNine said:

The Steelers are a shell of their former selves. Baltimore has been losing some ground, and the Bengals are the Bengals... Browns have a pretty good shot at winning their division again.

 

I've been looking at the Ravens off-season and wondering just how much they lost.

 

On the one hand, they lost a couple good players off their offensive line, Fluker, Skura, and Orlando Brown by trade.

On the other hand, they signed Villanueva from Pitt and G Zeitler from the Giants and drafted a guard in the 3rd.

On the third hand, is that enough?  They had OL problems last season and their run-centric offense is critically dependent upon that.

Center is IMO their big Q.

 

They had ?? behind Marquise Brown and they theoretically improved their WR significantly with Watkins and their 1st round pick Bateman

 

The big losses appear to be Matt Judon to NE and Ngakoue to LV.  On the other hand, Harbaugh is IMO a very sound defensive coach and they've had a strong defense for a very long time in part because they are good at developing depth, so one has to think they have a plan beyond drafting Oweh.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

People like to treat the NFL like a transitive property, A>B and B>C so A>C.  It doesn't work that way.

 

 

Agree. It is a match up league. It is entirely possible to team B to be better than team D but team D to have a better shot of beating team A. 

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Posted (edited)
On 5/2/2021 at 1:48 PM, GoBills808 said:

The Browns couldn’t beat the Chiefs playing Chad Henne at QB

Right they were down 19-3 against a clearly injured mahomes in the first half.  If mahomes finished out that game the browns get absolutely blown out and the conversation is completely different right now..  Also yea Cleveland went 11-5 but they had a negative point differential.  We get a little too hung up on who's roster is the best on paper in the offseason I think.  That 8-8 Rex Ryan bills team was arguably one of the best rosters on paper that we've ever had and where did that get us lol I think theres a better chance that the browns have a decent season but miss the playoffs than them making any kind of noise in the afc

Edited by Generic_Bills_Fan
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25 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Right they were down 19-3 against a clearly injured mahomes in the first half.  If mahomes finished out that game the browns get absolutely blown out and the conversation is completely different right now..  Also yea Cleveland went 11-5 but they had a negative point differential.  We get a little too hung up on who's roster is the best on paper in the offseason I think.  That 8-8 Rex Ryan bills team was arguably one of the best rosters on paper that we've ever had and where did that get us lol I think theres a better chance that the browns have a decent season but miss the playoffs than them making any kind of noise in the afc

 

Unless major injuries bite the Browns are not missing the playoffs. 

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15 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I love that Montoya put out a thread like this because it gives us something to argue about. And May is boring from an NFL standpoint.

 

But that being said IMO the ranking in the AFC is Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Browns/Colts. 

 

Buffalo had two quality playoff wins against the Colts & Ravens before running out of steam against the Chiefs.  The Browns, who lost to the Ravens twice last season, got past Pitt in the playoffs with what could only be described as the Steelers playing one of the worst quarters of playoff football in NFL history. The Chiefs were clearly looking past the Browns and had Mahomes stayed in that game they would have won it by 17 plus points.

 

Buffalo added a couple of guys who I think will show up big time next season (Hollister, Sanders & Breida) and the Bills have a number of young players entering their 2nd - 4th years who stand to improve (Allen, Davis, Singleterry, Moss, Knox, Edmunds, Oliver, Espinoza to name a few).  This is a team that won 13 regular season games and 2 playoff games.  They clearly are the #2 AFC seed going into next season.

 

 

 

 

I agree, I think the continuity Buffalo has been able to establish is going to be a big plus this season IMO. I expect players like Gabe Davis, Edmunds and Oliver to benefit from it.  Good post Cincy

 

Great thread for discussion OP...

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14 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Ok I'm back.  Again, this is my capture of my view on how I think Beane sees the run game and what he thinks he's done about it.

 

So fundamentally, in terms of prioritizing resigning our own Beane put $11.54M cap $$ at re-upping Williams, Feliciano, and Boettger - which is basically last year's OL. The Ed Courage award and the "struggling to lift a 10 lb weight" and the stuff he said about Ford says to me that Beane may be giving them the "purple heart pass", but signing Boettger and $3M of additional FA in Lamp, Douglas, and Hart implies to me that Beane is hedging his bets and there's a shot across the bows "we will have holes in the run game, or else...."

 

As far as TE, Hollister lost playing time to Dissly and Greg Olsen in 2020, but from what I saw he's a more capable run blocker than Knox last off-season.

SI had this to say:

My knock on Knox, from what I saw and in Cover1's breakdown, is that he's totally inconsistent.  If it's clear to him who he's supposed to block and he has time to get set he can do OK, but if he's facing elite quickness or if there's some kind of read-and-react decision making involved "let's see, if the LB drops into coverage and the CB comes then I gotta block him", he's totally "lost in space".  I hope he improves, but I think Hollister is a "shot across the bows" to Knox that he better shape up, or there WILL be an alternative who can both block and gain separation in the passing game.  If Sweeney has learned anything during his year off, maybe two because I sure liked what I saw of him when he was on the field and his college tape.

 

As far as the RBs, I think they were sent off with a laundry list of stuff to work on.  My personal take is that Singletary lost focus last year - as we became a passing team and the run blocking struggled, I think he was "phoning it in" sometimes.  He ran the world's worst go route in one game; it was notable in the Ravens game he had a hole and ran right into his blockers.  Hopefully his offseason work that Ty Dunne wrote about indicates that he got the message.  But just like the OLmen, I think Breida represents a bit of a "shot across the bows"; he was a capable back with the SF 49ers gaining 5.3 and 5.1 ypa, 58 and 48 ypg.  Beane doesn't want to be left with no alternatives if his primary plan that our current backs will look better if the blocking is better does not pan out.  The other part of signing Breida is as a 5th year guy who played for a Superbowl team, I think Beane is expecting some veteran leadership out of Breida to help keep the room focused even if they aren't getting much business as rushers sometimes.

 

I would expect to see Beane watching the waiver wire and the cutout bin, as well.

 

OK, so, it's not the "blow it all up and start over" sexy that some here would like to see, and I'm not intending to get all up in the "whoo, done more than Browns" or anything like that.  I'm just pointing out that what Beane has done to try to ensure we have a run game next season may be a bit more than folks see.

 

 

 

Good stuff - especially the TE breakdown.

 

Was my beef with Knox, more than the occasional lapses in concentration and ball security as a receiver, was his "ole" lookout blocks. He also was no great shakes when called upon to block for runs.

 

Daboll could trot Lee Smith out, but that tipped our hands towards calling a run.

 

In the red zone it led to more than a few instances of Smith lumbering wide open into the end zone uncovered. He was downright prolific as an end zone receiving option for the first time in his career.

 

Although it was nice to see a grinder like Smith get some love from the game plan, the ideal is to have that TE who can do both well from anywhere on the field to keep defenses guessing.

 

 

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

Truth, but they made good progress last year and I do not see enough roster loss or FO/coaching change to have a good justication for them losing ground.

 

The Steelers are a shell of their former selves. Baltimore has been losing some ground, and the Bengals are the Bengals... Browns have a pretty good shot at winning their division again.

 

The Bills backed into the playoffs, to end our drought, and have since earned our last two appearances.

 

The Browns finally broke their post season drought (2002) last year.

 

I won't count a team as actually "ahead" of us till they beat us and not just once.

 

A lot comes down to matchup. If we played the Titans twice would we beat them?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The browns have to beat us twice for them to be considered better? Why? 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ScottLaw said:

The browns have to beat us twice for them to be considered better? Why? 

 

We are not talking an exact science, this is completely subjective as much as any power rankings - fun to debate. If we are just talking AFC win records projections that is another conversation and probably has more to do with strength of schedule which is not an exact science either.

 

My thoughts are that when a team beats you more than once in a season they probably have your number. One time can be a fluke or a terrible game plan or injured key players etc...Teams may adjust strategy, get healthy, and return the favor to end up splitting (thinking more in terms of interdivisional rivalries, but playoffs are viable as we saw KC twice last year and both times they handed it to us). If you split with a team then I feel strength is a matter of overall conference record after that.

 

If the conference records are the same the pundits can debate who is better, but as they say "any given Sunday" or in the Bill's case "Monday", "Thursday", etc... as we get more prime-time exposer.

 

Like I said, not an equation and as others have pointed out, some teams may have subpar AFC records yet be a terrible specific matchup for your team that has a great record.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, WideNine said:

 

We are not talking an exact science, this is completely subjective as much as any power rankings - fun to debate. If we are just talking AFC win records projections that is another conversation and probably has more to do with strength of schedule which is not an exact science either.

 

My thoughts are that when a team beats you more than once in a season they probably have your number. One time can be a fluke or a terrible game plan or injured key players etc...Teams may adjust strategy, get healthy, and return the favor to end up splitting (thinking more in terms of interdivisional rivalries, but playoffs are viable as we saw KC twice last year and both times they handed it to us). If you split with a team then I feel strength is a matter of overall conference record after that.

 

If the conference records are the same the pundits can debate who is better, but as they say "any given Sunday" or in the Bill's case "Monday", "Thursday", etc... as we get more prime-time exposer.

 

Like I said, not an equation and as others have pointed out, some teams may have subpar AFC records yet be a terrible specific matchup for your team that has a great record.

 

 

 

Don’t disagree. Yea absolutely depends on how they lost......but if the Bills play the Browns and the Bills are dominated at the LOS on both sides of the ball and lose, I’m not sure how you could argue the Bills are still the better team...

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2021 Browns schedule besides Steelers 2x, Ravens 2x, Bengals 2x. 

 

Cardinals-@Patriots-@Vikings-@Chargers-@Chiefs-@Packers-Texans-Lions-Bears-Raiders-Broncos. 

 

Cleveland has the #9th toughest schedule in 2021. 

 

https://fbschedules.com/cleveland-browns-schedule/

 

Unless Baker Mayfield hits another level I don't see Cleveland making the playoffs in 2021. JMO

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

2021 Browns schedule besides Steelers 2x, Ravens 2x, Bengals 2x. 

 

Cardinals-@Patriots-@Vikings-@Chargers-@Chiefs-@Packers-Texans-Lions-Bears-Raiders-Broncos. 

 

Cleveland has the #9th toughest schedule in 2021. 

 

https://fbschedules.com/cleveland-browns-schedule/

 

Unless Baker Mayfield hits another level I don't see Cleveland making the playoffs in 2021. JMO

 

The bolded is the most important point, tho I think they could still make the playoffs if he doesn't. I think where the Browns will fall down is in the playoffs. I don't see the Browns becoming a Championship team unless Baker takes another step. The QB talent level in the AFC just won't allow it to happen. And the Browns don't have a dominate defense.

 

And this being Bakers 4th season, I think the likelihood of him taking that step is slim. His trajectory has stayed pretty much the same in his 3 years.

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23 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Power ranking by the NFL network has the Bills at #3 and the Brownies at #6!

 

#1 Bucs, Chiefs, Bills, Packers, Baltimore, Cleveland, Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, Saints, Steelers, Titans, Colts, Dolphins, Chargers.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-power-rankings-bears-49ers-on-the-rise-after-2021-draft

The Bucs being #1 is ridiculous. They should have lost to GB. You can't judge an entire team based on one game.

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40 minutes ago, Wayne Cubed said:

 

The bolded is the most important point, tho I think they could still make the playoffs if he doesn't. I think where the Browns will fall down is in the playoffs. I don't see the Browns becoming a Championship team unless Baker takes another step. The QB talent level in the AFC just won't allow it to happen. And the Browns don't have a dominate defense.

 

And this being Bakers 4th season, I think the likelihood of him taking that step is slim. His trajectory has stayed pretty much the same in his 3 years.

As mentioned before, Baker had three offensive systems in his first three years. Last season he didn’t even have a proper offseason to learn and practice this one.  He looked bad early, but finished strong.  Now he gets to, for the first time as a pro, stay in that same scheme for a second season.  Let’s see how he does with that before passing judgement. 

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Baker is Alex Smith with an attitude. 

 

That will win you a lot of games, and given the right circumstances, could win you a Super Bowl. 

 

Football is a funny thing. A bad snap and a muffed punt and it could be 14-0 in a single elimination scenario. Suddenly the other team is pressing and Cleveland can run the ball, rush the passer like crazy on dense and Baker can throw 19/20 for 200 yards and they can easily win that game. 

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4 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

As mentioned before, Baker had three offensive systems in his first three years. Last season he didn’t even have a proper offseason to learn and practice this one.  He looked bad early, but finished strong.  Now he gets to, for the first time as a pro, stay in that same scheme for a second season.  Let’s see how he does with that before passing judgement. 

I can agree with the idea that Mayfield could improve with more time in the system but a more important point is to look at how the Stefanski introduced a run first system knowing that Mayfield would be his QB.  They don't think it's a good recipe for him to be controlling the game with his arm which is telling in a league that is more and more reliant on throwing.  Good luck paying him as a top quarterback when your system is designed to deemphasize the QB. 

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54 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Baker is Alex Smith with an attitude. 

 

That will win you a lot of games, and given the right circumstances, could win you a Super Bowl. 

 

Football is a funny thing. A bad snap and a muffed punt and it could be 14-0 in a single elimination scenario. Suddenly the other team is pressing and Cleveland can run the ball, rush the passer like crazy on dense and Baker can throw 19/20 for 200 yards and they can easily win that game. 

Teams have tried winning that way for years. The margin for error in the NFL is too thin to be a consistent winning team without a top quarterback.

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