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2021 NFL Draft - Day 3 debrief


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Once more unto the breach dear friends, once more.....

 

The Bills picks...

So the Bills ended up making 5 picks on day 3 of the draft, with two more offensive lineman a return specialist and two defensive backs getting the phone call from Beane and co. I think it is interesting that Beane has been really honest the way the Bills judged value in this class. He admitted that round 1 was not pure best player available but BPA in a position to affect the quarterback. He told us day 2 was a strict BPA and stick to the board. Day 3 was a mix of the two. They clearly liked Tommy Doyle as a second developmental tackle out of this class and made him their first pick of day 3. I don't know much about him, he isn't a guy I'd watched but the highlights out there he is a similar profile to Spencer Brown, great length and an impressive athletic profile. They then traded back from their second 5th round pick to end up with three 3rds that they used - in Beane's own words - to attack some needs. Marquez Stevenson was described be Beane as a "returner" and I think to force his way onto this roster as a rookie he likely will need to win that return job that Andre Roberts vacated but long term he has some speed and short area quickness that could make him an eventual successor for the Isaiah McKenzie role (McKenzie signed another 1 year deal). Combining that return role with the gimmick role would be an efficient use of roster spots going forward. Damar Hamlin is a guy I watched bits and pieces of. I hadn't watched enough to properly grade him but my take away was good instincts, limited athlete. I think his fit in the NFL is as a safety who comes down and plays in the box, but he might want to add a bit of bulk to his frame before he gets on the field consistently. He does have a shot at the roster though because the Bills do lack a bit of depth at safety and it is an area where I'd expect to still see a vet added before camp. The third 6th rounder - Rashad Wildgoose - a corner from Wisconsin is a player of whom I know nothing at all, but again depth is needed at the spot and he will have a shot to make the 53. I love their 7th rounder Jack Anderson. I had a 4th/5th borderline grade on him. He comes from Texas Tech who fling the ball around and as such he is a pretty advanced pass protector. The Bills made clear last year that their offense is going to be a pass first scheme built around Josh Allen and Anderson could well develop into a guy who fills one of those interior spots on the line. He played some center at the Senior Bowl as well and we know the Bills love position flex. 

 

Ultimately the question about whether this draft was a strong one or not is unlikely to be answered in 2021. I expect both Rousseau and Basham to be in the edge rotation and Stevenson might well end up as their primary returner. However, 2022 might well be the year we get a better read on this class. By that stage the Bills could have moved on from Darryl Williams and plugged Brown or Doyle in at right tackle and both Hughes and Addison are likely gone. Even if just one of the edge guys and one of the tackles pans out as a long term starter then you would have to judge this as a success. 

 

The UDFAs

Only 6 UDFAs at last count for the Bills. I really like Tariq Thompson a safety with the skillset to do some big nickel stuff. I had a mid 4th round grade on him, he was the 100th ranked player on my board and I think he has a shot to make the team (again helped in part by the lack of safety depth). Even if he doesn't make it this year if the Bills can stash him on the PS he is a natural successor to Siran Neal who is a FA after the 2021 season. 

 

Other notable moves

Cleveland had a really nice draft and added three guys I really liked - James Hudson, Tony Fields and Tommy Togai on day 3. Their roster is legit IMO. I expect them to have closed the gap on Buffalo and Kansas City in 2021. Yes, they are more limited than both at Quarterback, but they have a good coaching staff, a lot of talent and - as Rich Eisen mentioned - a 3rd place schedule. The Panthers are another team who really crushed this draft. Chubba Hubbard, Daviyon Nixon, Keith Taylor and Shi Smith were all guys I had decent grades on and to land all 4 of them on day 3 is a nice haul. There are no excuses left for Sam Darnold. If he fails in Carolina it will be with a talented roster around him and the blame will fall on him. In contrast to Carolina's constant trading down Chicago had a draft of trading up but I also think they snagged three guys in round 6 - Khalil Herbert at running back, Dazz Newsome at receiver and Thomas Graham at corner who have a chance to play meaningful snaps for them in 2021. 

 

And then there were just FOUR...

The fewest players I have ever had left on a draft board. The last two years I had 8 left, this year only 4 and two of those are because are significant medical red flags. Those four and where they ended up as UDFAs are:

 

1. Darius Stills, DT, West Virginia - LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

2. Tariq Thompson, S, San Diego State - BUFFALO BILLS

3. Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

4. Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State - CLEVELAND BROWNS

 

There were also three other guys I mentioned in my "sleepers" post a couple of weeks back who I hadn't watched enough of to fully evaluate and put on the board but who I liked as late round picks and ended up as UDFAs:  

 

Austin Watkins, WR, UAB - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Dicaprio Bootle, CB, Nebraska - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Chris Brown, S, Texas - As yet unsigned.

 

I think Watkins and Bootle ended up in places that are really good fits. The guy I saw watching Bootle's film was L'Jarius Sneed who the Chiefs drafted in the 4th round last year. Bootle is a little smaller but plays with that same physical style and sticky coverage technique. I think if they plan to move Sneed outside (I'm not convinced on that but let's see) then Bootle is a potential successor as the nickel. Watkins has a chance to make the roster in San Fran too. While his downfield skillset is not exactly a natural fit in Shanhan's scheme there is also nobody on their roster currently who really offers that, so while I am not convinced he could become an every down type player he could cut out a little niche for himself. 

 

And that, ladies and gentlemen, brings the curtain down on yet another NFL Draft. I'm already looking forward to next year! ☺️

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McDermott has a type for his secondary players, outside of CB1. He is more interested in football intelligence than pure athleticism because he believes his scheme will put the players in the right spot to make a play if they are smart enough to know where they're supposed to be. Other than White, the highest drafted player in our secondary is Taron Johnson as a 4th rounder, even Hyde and Poyer were drafted in the 5th and 7th rounds by their respective teams. I think McDermott has realized he can find good enough late round and UDFA players that he can coach up as long as his CB1 is solidified.

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24 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

McDermott has a type for his secondary players, outside of CB1. He is more interested in football intelligence than pure athleticism because he believes his scheme will put the players in the right spot to make a play if they are smart enough to know where they're supposed to be. Other than White, the highest drafted player in our secondary is Taron Johnson as a 4th rounder, even Hyde and Poyer were drafted in the 5th and 7th rounds by their respective teams. I think McDermott has realized he can find good enough late round and UDFA players that he can coach up as long as his CB1 is solidified.

Let’s hope that the scheme allows the DBs and LBs to be a little closer to the opponents WRs and TEs the next time we play the chiefs. Couldn’t believe how wide open the entire team was that game.  Quite embarrassing 

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Gunner -

 

Thanks for your draft coverage it's great stuff.  

 

I agree that it's possible that some of the late round and free agent DBs could make the final 53, but in any case some of them will be on the practice squad, may be late-season injury-fill-in call ups with a more serious shot to make it in 2022.  Whatever.

 

I haven't heard Beane's day-3 presser, but as you report it, he said what he's said over and over - early rounds are for BPA and late rounds are to fill needs.  Early round are to get guys at whatever position who look like they could be long-term starters - yes, he did a bit of combo-BPA-need pick in the first round, it was still BPA.   Late round guys are prospects who can help in the short-term and may develop.   Beane's really disciplined about this, and that's what causes some head-scratching with fans when he takes two edge players in the first two rounds.  So, there's something of a roster traffic jam on the edge now, but too much talent is a good problem to have, especially when there are no glaring holes elsewhere.  

 

One thing I like about Beane's drafts is how unpredictable they are are.  These huge offensive linemen, two quality DEs.  A placekicker and Fromm last year, the multiple trade-ups for Allen and Edmunds, the Diggs trade.   He'll do whatever seems to him to add the best talent and the right talent. 

 

One final comment is how increasingly Bills draftees say, in way or another, "I'm just here to do whatever I can do to make this team get better.  I'm ready to get to work, right now."  Maybe they're all just well coached by their agents who know by now that's the mantra, but I'm guessing it's genuine. 

 

 

28 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

McDermott has a type for his secondary players, outside of CB1. He is more interested in football intelligence than pure athleticism because he believes his scheme will put the players in the right spot to make a play if they are smart enough to know where they're supposed to be. Other than White, the highest drafted player in our secondary is Taron Johnson as a 4th rounder, even Hyde and Poyer were drafted in the 5th and 7th rounds by their respective teams. I think McDermott has realized he can find good enough late round and UDFA players that he can coach up as long as his CB1 is solidified.

This is nicely stated.   There's certainly some minimum level of athleticism needed, but it seems a lot of guys meet that minimum.   I'll admit, however, that I have a concern about it, which is that those guys tend to be better in zone than man.  When you hit a team that forces you to play more man coverages, you tend to be at a physical disadvantage.  I suppose McDermott's answer to that is "that's why I have to have a front four that generates consistent pressure - my DBs can't stay with those receivers for too long."

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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

And then there were just FOUR...

The fewest players I have ever had left on a draft board. The last two years I had 8 left, this year only 4 and two of those are because are significant medical red flags. Those four and where they ended up as UDFAs are:

 

1. Darius Stills, DT, West Virginia - LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

2. Tariq Thompson, S, San Diego State - BUFFALO BILLS

3. Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

4. Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State - CLEVELAND BROWNS

 

Gunner,  how many players did you have in total on your board?  I'm just curious and it would give me some context.

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12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I suppose McDermott's answer to that is "that's why I have to have a front four that generates consistent pressure - my DBs can't stay with those receivers for too long."

 

That's exactly right. His defensive scheme is predicated on never giving up big plays, and waiting for the offense to make a mistake. He doesn't expect his CB2 to live on an island. He just wants him in position to make the short yardage tackle, and Wallace has been able to fill that role despite being a very limited athlete.

 

The problem last year is we didn't have a pass rush to write home about so offenses weren't making those mistakes. They were waiting waiting waiting and by then someone was coming open. So we were getting dinked and dunked all the way to the endzone. The Chiefs didn't kill us with their patented deep shots. They killed us surgically.

 

I'm actually expecting our pass rush schemes to look very different this year. I'm expecting a ton of rotation, even more than McDermott usually does. Epenesa and Rousseau and Basham all have versatility to play inside and out. Oliver can play 3-tech and 1-tech. Star is going to be our mainstay at 1-tech, Addison and Hughes will be our mainstays on the edge. Everyone else is going to be moved around to the point of frustrating opposing offenses. Our stunt packages are going to be extremely versatile. I imagine McDermott and Frazier will be like mad scientists this offseason finding different ways to mix our front 4 players. 

 

Ultimately it goes back to McDermott's running theme of everyone doing their 1/11th. Last year he didn't have 11 capable players he could put on the field at the same time so the whole foundation was cracked. Now he has those players and I foresee a big turn around.

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18 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's exactly right. His defensive scheme is predicated on never giving up big plays, and waiting for the offense to make a mistake. He doesn't expect his CB2 to live on an island. He just wants him in position to make the short yardage tackle, and Wallace has been able to fill that role despite being a very limited athlete.

 

The problem last year is we didn't have a pass rush to write home about so offenses weren't making those mistakes. They were waiting waiting waiting and by then someone was coming open. So we were getting dinked and dunked all the way to the endzone. The Chiefs didn't kill us with their patented deep shots. They killed us surgically.

 

I'm actually expecting our pass rush schemes to look very different this year. I'm expecting a ton of rotation, even more than McDermott usually does. Epenesa and Rousseau and Basham all have versatility to play inside and out. Oliver can play 3-tech and 1-tech. Star is going to be our mainstay at 1-tech, Addison and Hughes will be our mainstays on the edge. Everyone else is going to be moved around to the point of frustrating opposing offenses. Our stunt packages are going to be extremely versatile. I imagine McDermott and Frazier will be like mad scientists this offseason finding different ways to mix our front 4 players. 

 

Ultimately it goes back to McDermott's running theme of everyone doing their 1/11th. Last year he didn't have 11 capable players he could put on the field at the same time so the whole foundation was cracked. Now he has those players and I foresee a big turn around.

Thanks.  That sounds exactly right. 

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I like the UDFA TE they signed a lot too. A lot of athleticism, good speed and our TE group isn’t exactly elite. It’ll be tough for him to make the roster but certainly a 2021 PS route to a 2022 roster route is plausible 

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2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Once more unto the breach dear friends, once more.....

 

The Bills picks...

So the Bills ended up making 5 picks on day 3 of the draft, with two more offensive lineman a return specialist and two defensive backs getting the phone call from Beane and co. I think it is interesting that Beane has been really honest the way the Bills judged value in this class. He admitted that round 1 was not pure best player available but BPA in a position to affect the quarterback. He told us day 2 was a strict BPA and stick to the board. Day 3 was a mix of the two. They clearly liked Tommy Doyle as a second developmental tackle out of this class and made him their first pick of day 3. I don't know much about him, he isn't a guy I'd watched but the highlights out there he is a similar profile to Spencer Brown, great length and an impressive athletic profile. They then traded back from their second 5th round pick to end up with three 3rds that they used - in Beane's own words - to attack some needs. Marquez Stevenson was described be Beane as a "returner" and I think to force his way onto this roster as a rookie he likely will need to win that return job that Andre Roberts vacated but long term he has some speed and short area quickness that could make him an eventual successor for the Isaiah McKenzie role (McKenzie signed another 1 year deal). Combining that return role with the gimmick role would be an efficient use of roster spots going forward. Damar Hamlin is a guy I watched bits and pieces of. I hadn't watched enough to properly grade him but my take away was good instincts, limited athlete. I think his fit in the NFL is as a safety who comes down and plays in the box, but he might want to add a bit of bulk to his frame before he gets on the field consistently. He does have a shot at the roster though because the Bills do lack a bit of depth at safety and it is an area where I'd expect to still see a vet added before camp. The third 6th rounder - Rashad Wildgoose - a corner from Wisconsin is a player of whom I know nothing at all, but again depth is needed at the spot and he will have a shot to make the 53. I love their 7th rounder Jack Anderson. I had a 4th/5th borderline grade on him. He comes from Texas Tech who fling the ball around and as such he is a pretty advanced pass protector. The Bills made clear last year that their offense is going to be a pass first scheme built around Josh Allen and Anderson could well develop into a guy who fills one of those interior spots on the line. He played some center at the Senior Bowl as well and we know the Bills love position flex. 

 

Ultimately the question about whether this draft was a strong one or not is unlikely to be answered in 2021. I expect both Rousseau and Basham to be in the edge rotation and Stevenson might well end up as their primary returner. However, 2022 might well be the year we get a better read on this class. By that stage the Bills could have moved on from Darryl Williams and plugged Brown or Doyle in at right tackle and both Hughes and Addison are likely gone. Even if just one of the edge guys and one of the tackles pans out as a long term starter then you would have to judge this as a success. 

 

The UDFAs

Only 6 UDFAs at last count for the Bills. I really like Tariq Thompson a safety with the skillset to do some big nickel stuff. I had a mid 4th round grade on him, he was the 100th ranked player on my board and I think he has a shot to make the team (again helped in part by the lack of safety depth). Even if he doesn't make it this year if the Bills can stash him on the PS he is a natural successor to Siran Neal who is a FA after the 2021 season. 

 

Other notable moves

Cleveland had a really nice draft and added three guys I really liked - James Hudson, Tony Fields and Tommy Togai on day 3. Their roster is legit IMO. I expect them to have closed the gap on Buffalo and Kansas City in 2021. Yes, they are more limited than both at Quarterback, but they have a good coaching staff, a lot of talent and - as Rich Eisen mentioned - a 3rd place schedule. The Panthers are another team who really crushed this draft. Chubba Hubbard, Daviyon Nixon, Keith Taylor and Shi Smith were all guys I had decent grades on and to land all 4 of them on day 3 is a nice haul. There are no excuses left for Sam Darnold. If he fails in Carolina it will be with a talented roster around him and the blame will fall on him. In contrast to Carolina's constant trading down Chicago had a draft of trading up but I also think they snagged three guys in round 6 - Khalil Herbert at running back, Dazz Newsome at receiver and Thomas Graham at corner who have a chance to play meaningful snaps for them in 2021. 

 

And then there were just FOUR...

The fewest players I have ever had left on a draft board. The last two years I had 8 left, this year only 4 and two of those are because are significant medical red flags. Those four and where they ended up as UDFAs are:

 

1. Darius Stills, DT, West Virginia - LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

2. Tariq Thompson, S, San Diego State - BUFFALO BILLS

3. Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

4. Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State - CLEVELAND BROWNS

 

There were also three other guys I mentioned in my "sleepers" post a couple of weeks back who I hadn't watched enough of to fully evaluate and put on the board but who I liked as late round picks and ended up as UDFAs:  

 

Austin Watkins, WR, UAB - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Dicaprio Bootle, CB, Nebraska - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Chris Brown, S, Texas - As yet unsigned.

 

I think Watkins and Bootle ended up in places that are really good fits. The guy I saw watching Bootle's film was L'Jarius Sneed who the Chiefs drafted in the 4th round last year. Bootle is a little smaller but plays with that same physical style and sticky coverage technique. I think if they plan to move Sneed outside (I'm not convinced on that but let's see) then Bootle is a potential successor as the nickel. Watkins has a chance to make the roster in San Fran too. While his downfield skillset is not exactly a natural fit in Shanhan's scheme there is also nobody on their roster currently who really offers that, so while I am not convinced he could become an every down type player he could cut out a little niche for himself. 

 

And that, ladies and gentlemen, brings the curtain down on yet another NFL Draft. I'm already looking forward to next year! ☺️

 

In the future, I'd appreciate if you put a little thought and effort into your posts.  Thanks.

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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Once more unto the breach dear friends, once more.....

 

The Bills picks...

So the Bills ended up making 5 picks on day 3 of the draft, with two more offensive lineman a return specialist and two defensive backs getting the phone call from Beane and co. I think it is interesting that Beane has been really honest the way the Bills judged value in this class. He admitted that round 1 was not pure best player available but BPA in a position to affect the quarterback. He told us day 2 was a strict BPA and stick to the board. Day 3 was a mix of the two. They clearly liked Tommy Doyle as a second developmental tackle out of this class and made him their first pick of day 3. I don't know much about him, he isn't a guy I'd watched but the highlights out there he is a similar profile to Spencer Brown, great length and an impressive athletic profile. They then traded back from their second 5th round pick to end up with three 3rds that they used - in Beane's own words - to attack some needs. Marquez Stevenson was described be Beane as a "returner" and I think to force his way onto this roster as a rookie he likely will need to win that return job that Andre Roberts vacated but long term he has some speed and short area quickness that could make him an eventual successor for the Isaiah McKenzie role (McKenzie signed another 1 year deal). Combining that return role with the gimmick role would be an efficient use of roster spots going forward. Damar Hamlin is a guy I watched bits and pieces of. I hadn't watched enough to properly grade him but my take away was good instincts, limited athlete. I think his fit in the NFL is as a safety who comes down and plays in the box, but he might want to add a bit of bulk to his frame before he gets on the field consistently. He does have a shot at the roster though because the Bills do lack a bit of depth at safety and it is an area where I'd expect to still see a vet added before camp. The third 6th rounder - Rashad Wildgoose - a corner from Wisconsin is a player of whom I know nothing at all, but again depth is needed at the spot and he will have a shot to make the 53. I love their 7th rounder Jack Anderson. I had a 4th/5th borderline grade on him. He comes from Texas Tech who fling the ball around and as such he is a pretty advanced pass protector. The Bills made clear last year that their offense is going to be a pass first scheme built around Josh Allen and Anderson could well develop into a guy who fills one of those interior spots on the line. He played some center at the Senior Bowl as well and we know the Bills love position flex. 

 

Ultimately the question about whether this draft was a strong one or not is unlikely to be answered in 2021. I expect both Rousseau and Basham to be in the edge rotation and Stevenson might well end up as their primary returner. However, 2022 might well be the year we get a better read on this class. By that stage the Bills could have moved on from Darryl Williams and plugged Brown or Doyle in at right tackle and both Hughes and Addison are likely gone. Even if just one of the edge guys and one of the tackles pans out as a long term starter then you would have to judge this as a success. 

 

The UDFAs

Only 6 UDFAs at last count for the Bills. I really like Tariq Thompson a safety with the skillset to do some big nickel stuff. I had a mid 4th round grade on him, he was the 100th ranked player on my board and I think he has a shot to make the team (again helped in part by the lack of safety depth). Even if he doesn't make it this year if the Bills can stash him on the PS he is a natural successor to Siran Neal who is a FA after the 2021 season. 

 

Other notable moves

Cleveland had a really nice draft and added three guys I really liked - James Hudson, Tony Fields and Tommy Togai on day 3. Their roster is legit IMO. I expect them to have closed the gap on Buffalo and Kansas City in 2021. Yes, they are more limited than both at Quarterback, but they have a good coaching staff, a lot of talent and - as Rich Eisen mentioned - a 3rd place schedule. The Panthers are another team who really crushed this draft. Chubba Hubbard, Daviyon Nixon, Keith Taylor and Shi Smith were all guys I had decent grades on and to land all 4 of them on day 3 is a nice haul. There are no excuses left for Sam Darnold. If he fails in Carolina it will be with a talented roster around him and the blame will fall on him. In contrast to Carolina's constant trading down Chicago had a draft of trading up but I also think they snagged three guys in round 6 - Khalil Herbert at running back, Dazz Newsome at receiver and Thomas Graham at corner who have a chance to play meaningful snaps for them in 2021. 

 

And then there were just FOUR...

The fewest players I have ever had left on a draft board. The last two years I had 8 left, this year only 4 and two of those are because are significant medical red flags. Those four and where they ended up as UDFAs are:

 

1. Darius Stills, DT, West Virginia - LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

2. Tariq Thompson, S, San Diego State - BUFFALO BILLS

3. Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

4. Marvin Wilson, DT, Florida State - CLEVELAND BROWNS

 

There were also three other guys I mentioned in my "sleepers" post a couple of weeks back who I hadn't watched enough of to fully evaluate and put on the board but who I liked as late round picks and ended up as UDFAs:  

 

Austin Watkins, WR, UAB - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Dicaprio Bootle, CB, Nebraska - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Chris Brown, S, Texas - As yet unsigned.

 

I think Watkins and Bootle ended up in places that are really good fits. The guy I saw watching Bootle's film was L'Jarius Sneed who the Chiefs drafted in the 4th round last year. Bootle is a little smaller but plays with that same physical style and sticky coverage technique. I think if they plan to move Sneed outside (I'm not convinced on that but let's see) then Bootle is a potential successor as the nickel. Watkins has a chance to make the roster in San Fran too. While his downfield skillset is not exactly a natural fit in Shanhan's scheme there is also nobody on their roster currently who really offers that, so while I am not convinced he could become an every down type player he could cut out a little niche for himself. 

 

And that, ladies and gentlemen, brings the curtain down on yet another NFL Draft. I'm already looking forward to next year! ☺️

 

 

The draft picks were high RAS guys..........the UDFA's were more "film" guys who played better than they tested.

 

I found Tariq Thompson's RAS..........it was .33.

 

Neither of us were big on Basham.........after 5 years in college he seems like a pretty finished product without a lot of upside........but hopefully his effort and intensity allows him to keep improving.

 

My only real issue with this draft was not coming out of it with a bigger receiving target with downfield skills.    Even Austin Watkins would have been nice.........though not sure,  as Sammy's cousin, that the fit would have felt for his family or for the Bills and their fan base.

 

Still time this offseason to improve the TE position and maybe even add some more to the WR corps.    Expecting some teams to release players and some trades to happen.

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