Jump to content

Trade up idea


Hermes

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, Georgie said:

I think you are high to think all this could happen. Cant force teams to trade with you

 

It's not like I said it was some rumor or bound to happen. Just a thought I had about trading up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Hermes said:

The way the draft is looking I think it would be beneficial to trade up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to ensure the Bills get contributors.

 

How this gets accomplished is a bit of a conundrum.. so I got to thinking how to make this work.

 

The idea that sprung to mind was to trade next year's 1st, this year's 2nd, 3rd, 5ths, and 6th for a 2nd next year, and a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th this year.

 

It would have to be after a few picks go in the 2nd tonight but I think the value is close.  It would look something like this when it's all said and done

 

Bills receive        Team X (Carolina) receives

39                        61

73                        93

113                      161

                            174

                            213

 

2022 2nd            2022 1st

 

 

 

 

 

The draft is light on talent this year with all of the opt outs and next year should have higher end players available in the second compared to this year.  So the drop off isn't as significant losing a first next year since more (better) players will be available.  The likelihood of this happening is probably negligible but a man can dream

I was going to dismiss it - but looking at it closely, it is not so bad. 

 

The main reason it is not so bad is that the Bills are likely to pick around 30 next year while the Panthers should pick around 40 - so the move up this year is only at the cost of moving down about 10 slots. Stated like that it appears we are the ones fleecing. Of course we give up a first rounder with a a 5th year guaranteed - that evens things up a bit. Otherwise, trading future firsts is like waving a red flag to a bull (and I am one of the bulls).

 

OP - if you add this analysis to your post, folks here may be a bit kinder in their evaluations:) 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

I was going to dismiss it - but looking at it closely, it is not so bad. 

 

The main reason it is not so bad is that the Bills are likely to pick around 30 next year while the Panthers should pick around 40 - so the move up this year is only at the cost of moving down about 10 slots. Stated like that it appears we are the ones fleecing. Of course we give up a first rounder with a a 5th year guaranteed - that evens things up a bit. Otherwise, trading future firsts is like waving a red flag to a bull (and I am one of the bulls).

 

OP - if you add this analysis to your post, folks here may be a bit kinder in their evaluations:) 

We can fix this lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think there is almost no chance at all that Beane trades any premium picks next year like our first or second.  Once we pay Josh, draft is going to be critical to keep restocking talent.  We won’t be able to keep retaining guys like we did this year after Josh’s new contract is on the books.  

  • Like (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

I was going to dismiss it - but looking at it closely, it is not so bad. 

 

The main reason it is not so bad is that the Bills are likely to pick around 30 next year while the Panthers should pick around 40 - so the move up this year is only at the cost of moving down about 10 slots. Stated like that it appears we are the ones fleecing. Of course we give up a first rounder with a a 5th year guaranteed - that evens things up a bit. Otherwise, trading future firsts is like waving a red flag to a bull (and I am one of the bulls).

 

OP - if you add this analysis to your post, folks here may be a bit kinder in their evaluations:) 

 

Those were my thoughts exactly! Although I didn't necessarily convey them like you did here. It's obviously risky and there's almost a zero percent chance of it happening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

If Beane has a guy coming towards him and wants to give up a 5th to move up a couple in the 2nd or 4-5 spots in the 3rd fine.

Anything more in this weird draft is a big No for me.


I think I’d rather him ride his luck and keep the pick rather than move up from 61 to 59 .... just my opinion...

 

There are going to be some upside guys left  in the 5th due  to this weird last year ... they value their scouts so let them find someone ...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Hermes said:

 

Those were my thoughts exactly! Although I didn't necessarily convey them like you did here. It's obviously risky and there's almost a zero percent chance of it happening.


Would you be happy if the Bills were in Carolina’s position and made such a trade?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:


I think I’d rather him ride his luck and keep the pick rather than move up from 61 to 59 .... just my opinion...

 

There are going to be some upside guys left  in the 5th due  to this weird last year ... they value their scouts so let them find someone ...

 

I totally agree and hope that's what Beane does.

I guess my point was IF he is going to a 5th is the most I would want him to give up.

  • Thank you (+1) 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The mere mention of future 1sts kills this discussion immediately. Off the table. Not an option.

 

I wouldnt mind giving up most of the remaining picks this year to move up and get a guy tho.

 

I'd do this:

 

Bills receive        Team X (Carolina) receives

 McCaffrey                   61

                                      93

                                     161

                                     174

                                     213

                                     236

 

FIFY!!!:wub:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:


Would you be happy if the Bills were in Carolina’s position and made such a trade?

 

I don't know the composition of their roster but I wouldn't be opposed to it, especially if I have a number of late round prospects I feel good about. Realistically this would be the bare minimum it would take for me to do the deal 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Hermes said:

 

I don't know the composition of their roster but I wouldn't be opposed to it, especially if I have a number of late round prospects I feel good about. Realistically this would be the bare minimum it would take for me to do the deal 


Did you look at a value chart when you put this together?

 

Carolina is giving away about 330 points to move down in the 2nd and 3rd and getting back about 35 with the Bills Day 3 picks...

 

Dont think the Bills late first swap for the Panthers mid 2nd next year ... say 30 for 42 is enough to make up the difference 

 

Edit.... sorry ... this doesn’t even factor in the 4th round pick the Bills get as well! 

Edited by Aussie Joe
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:


Did you look at a value chart when you put this together?

 

Carolina is giving away about 330 points to move down in the 2nd and 3rd and getting back about 35 with the Bills Day 3 picks...

 

Dont think the Bills late first swap for the Panthers mid 2nd next year ... say 30 for 42 is enough to make up the difference 

 

Edit.... sorry ... this doesn’t even factor in the 4th round pick the Bills get as well! 

 

I didn't. So theoretically the Bills would have to choose to move closer to the middle of the rounds rather than as high up as the Panthers are.

 

Not a terrible trade off. What I find interesting is everyone automatically shooting it down even though if this trade were to happen the Bills would come out on top by quite a bit (the value of a 3rd and 4th?)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hermes said:

 

I didn't. So theoretically the Bills would have to choose to move closer to the middle of the rounds rather than as high up as the Panthers are.

 

Not a terrible trade off. What I find interesting is everyone automatically shooting it down even though if this trade were to happen the Bills would come out on top by quite a bit (the value of a 3rd and 4th?)


It’s just unrealistic... the team trading up has to pay overs 

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

This is the opposite of what Beane stated - looking to build sustainable success.

 

What do you find unsustainable about the trade? If anything I'd say it's more sustainable because the players your drafting this year will be better than you'd get otherwise and next year having a 2nd instead of a 1st wouldn't be tragic

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Hermes said:

 

What do you find unsustainable about the trade? If anything I'd say it's more sustainable because the players your drafting this year will be better than you'd get otherwise and next year having a 2nd instead of a 1st wouldn't be tragic

I think player 1 round later next year are likely comparable or better than this year’s crop - at least more known commodities.  Add in that many fewer players declared early this year and I’d expect next year’s draft class to be stronger than this year’s.

 

 The Bills’ have a very good scouting staff, but the COVID situation this year has largely negated this advantage.  I’ll take my chances

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...